Weve been in a very tight trading range pretty much all day long. All right, sue. Lets talk a little bit more about what we might expect. As we get prepared for this press conference. You know, the market is going to be i think dissecting almost every word at the News Conference. I think the News Conference is where most of the news if there is news made will be made, ty, because theyre going to be parsing her language, her body language, and Steve Liesman is going to be there. And hes probably going to get one of the first questions. Steve steve . Lets go up to you and see what you expect to hear from miss yellen. We cant count on that, sue. You just take your question when youre called. You raise your hand and youre either in or youre out here. But this is an important day here, the beginning of the yellen era. This is the term when the economy and the rates are supposed to normalize. Heres on the yellen agenda. End qe. Reduce the Balance Sheet sometime after that. Begin heightening rates the expectation in the market. Sometime in the Second Quarter of 15. And then normalize rates. Those last two are two separate processes. Take a look at this graph. Where does she start . She starts with zero rates. 1. 1 inflation. And 6. 7 unemployment rate. Where does she have to go . On rates she goes to 4. On inflation up to 2 and unemployment down to 5. 5 . This is whats supposed to happen. This is the longerrun outlook. Watch for those numbers today and see what the longerrun outlook is when we get the forecast for the Federal Reserve. Also looking at the feds rate forecast very carefully, the 4 long run, some sense that could come down. Looking for 3 4 of a percent in 2016. 1 3 4. 1 3 4 and 4 over the long run. Yellen, however dovish you think she is, is likely to be the fed chair who hikes rates for the first time in 2006. Guys, today we begin a process of understanding how soon shes going to do it, how fast shes going to do it, and how far. Tyler, sue . All right, steve. Hang on there because were going to broaden out the conversation with elon mul of the Washington Post and josh volk of the associated press. Elon, you heard what steve just said. Im going to take the conversation maybe a little different way. Steve has laid out some numerical touch points there. I want you to speak to the stylistic change or differences that you might expect to see in a yellen fed and from janet yellen today from her predecessor. In terms of style, janet yellen is certainly a little bit more aggressive than ben bernanke. We saw that in the 2008 transfer where she states her case a little more boldly. Shes a little more direct. And shes a little more plain spoken than ben bernanke is. You might expect her to be a stronger leader in the committee. Well see how much tolerance she has for some of the diverse t. Of views that weve seen and that ben bernanke was so famous for accommodating during fmc meetings. Even more plain spoken than bernanke. Absolutely not a return to those greenspan days. Josh, let me turn to you. Do you think its likely that miss yellen will be presiding over a more fractious fed, and do you think that will be because people will be testing her power or because the economy is in a different place where unanimity is less likely . Well, the fed you know, its not a crazy plot twist when we come out to these kind of press conferences and these Big Decisions but we know there is going to be Division Just because of the big choices that janet yellen has to make. That controversy is inevitable when deciding what to do with the economy in its current shape. Ylan, what do you want most to ask ms. Yellen during the News Conference . Because i think thats going to be the focus of almost every reporter and almost every investor. So what do you really want to know from her or what are you going to press her on . I think what is the longer term outlook for rates . Are they going to be lower than the 4 the fed has stated if theres a normalized Interest Rate . Are we going to be looking at closer to 3. 5 or 3. 75 for rates . And also looking for beyond the first rate hike, how quickly might the fed move . It seems like there are several members who are thinking about multiple in 2015, not just one rate increase in 2015. Just getting beyond the very first move, what is the path Going Forward . The biggest question is how much thought was the fed given to that path . Right now theres a lot of uncertainty. They dont know exactly what theyre going to lift rates. So how much this goes beyond that point remains to be seen. Thats what i plan to ask her about. Guys, part of the problem is steve, i want to go ahead, steve. I was going to say the fed is a little bit of a victim of its own success here. After trying and kind of stumbling and failing to get on this ending qe path theyre on a pretty good path here. Our fed survey shows tremendous agreement and also consensus over the path of quantitative easing. So now that that storys kind of boring, weve all kind of moved on, whats 2015 look like . The how soon how far and how fast are the critical questions. I think it could be not as soon as you think, it could be faster than you think but not as far as you think. Very quickly, steve, do you think the hawkish side of the fed is going to test janet yellen early . Absolutely, tyler. This would be the time when you can find out how far you can go as a member of the opposition. And i think there will be some interesting and fractious days ahead. Maybe a few dissents ahead. And well see what happens. But the question becomes in the meetings down the road how yellen gains control of her committee. Steve, ylan, and josh, thanks very much. It will be an interesting 90 minutes or so ahead for us. Well be back with you of course later today. We thought right now we would take a look back at Janet Yellens sort of trajectory and career and tell you how she got here. While this is her press conference this is by no means her first rodeo. In 1977 she became an economist for the Federal Reserve board of governors. 20 years later in 1997 she went to the white house where she was appointed chair of the council of economic advisers by president clinton. In 2004 she began serving as president and ceo of the Federal Reserve bank of san francisco. Six years later she became vice chair of the Federal Reserve. And of course on january 6th of this year she was sworn in as the first female chair, sue, of the Federal Reserve. Indeed. So ty, lets talk more about what wall street wants to hear from ms. Yellen. Kenny, you wanted in on that last conversation, i could see you. I know. So tell me your thoughts. I think its going to be very difficult. The street wants to hear the quantitative measures but its going to be very difficult for her to be specific because how can you be so specific four or five years out . You can talk in generalities but you certainly cant say on this date its going to be here, on this date its going to be here. People that are expecting that much definition i think are going to be disappointed. People in the street need to hear the plan, a plan, what theyre looking at. Speak to me, abigail, about the volatility you that expect during that period of time. When i look at the chart, it looks as though there could be a brief euphoric moment where the market tops off but i more expect were still going to see a flight to the down side. I think the most important thing janet yellen needs to do today is really establish herself as a credible head of the fed where Investors Trust and respect her so that they can go forward and know that she is, you know, in charge. And i think we really need to still pay some attention to russia. Weve moved from complacency to gloejs. The fact there was a violation of International Law yesterday, the fed is almost nothing in my mind compared to that. The market could go right back to russia. It absolutely could. Last week they were talking about china was going to tip the whole Global Economy right off the edge. Meanwhile we dont even know how to spell china anymore. Along those lines the yuan, the chinese currency, penetrated a very key support level to the down side, which could trigger a lot of liquidation in certain financial instruments. But would you think that if that were true that youd start to see some of that because we know, that right . Thats happening now during our trading day. You would think some of that might start to filter through. I dont see, that right . When you look at the currency market thats where i still think theres the biggest volatility returning to the topic of volatility. All the central bank accommodations coordinated by the Central Banks around the world make it a pressure cooker. If it ever comes undone it could really hit the stock markets in my view in a negative way in a way that yellen needs to be prepared to handle. So hedge your bets. Thank you guys very much. Now to a developing story. A new note from carl icahn. Jon fortts on the case and hes being very vocal once again. He is, sue, but in a different way. In this latest missive carl icahn is advocating for e bay spinning off 20 of paypal. A different position than the attacks on the Board Members and recommendation to spin out, all of it. This is interesting because its a little bit similar to what emc did with vmware back in 2007, spun off 15 to the public markets. Icahn argues this would unlock some shareholder value, would enable paypal to pursue more talent and attract a board of topnotch people as well. I think whats missing in his argument but e bay hasnt articulated yet as ive said in the past, paypal has had some management challenges and some product challenges to get into order. I think some at e bay might argue nernltly maybe its not quite ready to do this this sort of a spin in the way they would ideally like. But well have to wait and see how e bay chooses to respond, sue. And e bay is basically flat on the day right now. We will see. Thank you, jon. Up to ec and dominik chu with a market push. One of the best performers overall today and certainly in the s p 500 is far and away first solar. The Solar Energy Company up around 15 in session highs. Holding its annual analyst day today. Also announced its partnering with general electrics power Conversion Unit to develop Cost Effective utility size you solar power plants. Thats a mouthful. Some traders are noting it could be the result of a short squeeze. Nevertheless the stock is up in 2014, 125 over the past year and they did offer some upbead sooilz guidance although Earnings Guidance made it below some expectation. Back to you. Well see you again in a couple minutes. Two big stories in the world of transportation. And our phil lebeau, whos been a very business why guy lately has more. Toyota slapped with a big fine from the department of justice. Not only what does it mean for toyota but what does it mean for General Motors which is also dealing with its own recall issues right now. And new developments when it comes to the malaysia air flight 370 search. Well have those developments and both stories when power lunch returns. Lunch returns. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Lunch returns. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back to power lunch. Shares of starbucks popping. The Company Highlights really are come out of their annual shareholder meeting. Ceo Howard Schultz is pointing to the companys record profits and sales and theyre aiming still to double their market cap to around 100 billion in the future. He also mentions the companys unique combination of physical and digital assets, ability to deliver longterm Global Growth through the lens of humanity he says. Still 2 1 2 to the up side tyler not too bad for a Big Coffee Company like starbucks. Back foup. No, its p. And i hope you all got the chance to see jim cramers interview with Howard Schultz this morning on squawk on the street. And later today jim is in seattle. Hell be reporting on that company. Talking to the heaved j. W. Nordstrom and more. It is a special edition of mad money there. You see schultz, nordstrom, rascoff of zillow and dr. Clay siegall of seattle genetics. All on mad money at 6 00 p. M. With jim cramer in seattle. Toyota shares are moving lower at this hour on news that the company will pay more than a billion dollars to settle a Justice Department probe, a criminal probe into the company over those cases of sudden and unanticipated acceleration of their cars here in the United States. Remember a couple years ago. So the question is what will this settlement do to ge excuse me, to General Motors and its own problem that the Justice Department and the Transportation Department are looking into. Phil lebeau is on that case and more for us from chicago. Tyler, this is the largest fine ever levied against an automaker by the department of justice, and when you look at what toyota will be paying and going through its a whopper of a penalty. 1. 2 billion. They will be on probation for three years. Toyota has also agreed to an independent Monitoring Firm to monitor how they implement safety protocol. There is no prosecution for toyota. If it complies with these terms. Now, toyota recalled more than 10 million vehicles for unintended acceleration back in the 20092010 time frame. But the u. S. Attorney says the problem went on before that. According to the u. S. Attorney, when toyota had these problems and the recalls came about, before that even happened toyota repeatedly lied about the problem. And in that moment in a misguided and illadvised effort at crisis management, toyota made the fateful decision to mislead the public to protect its brand. Rather than come clean, the Company Covered up and misled again and again and again. The toyota case raises questions about General Motors and how its handling the recall of faulty ignition switches. Gm has hired a former u. S. Attorney to investigate what went wrong at the company. Today attorney general eric holder was asked the gm investigation. He wouldnt comment. But he did have a clear warning for gm and other automakers. Its a sign for the industry that we take these matters seriously. Individuals, corporations will be held accountable. There is great work thats been done by this team that can be replicated if thats yez. And by the way, we should point out, mary barr, the ceo of general moltars was asked yesterday has she talked with the u. S. Attorneys office yet regarding the investigation. She says she has not but she is ready to cooperate if she is contacted. Tyler . Phil, lets turn to that other big story, the ongoing mystery of Malaysia Airlines flight 370. What do we know now . Whats new . Well, two things. One, theyre looking at the simulator, the Flight Simulator that was in the pilots home. One of the pilots homes. He had built a simulator. And in fact malaysian authorities today indicated that they have taken control of that simulator. Essentially, theyre looking at some of the lost data that was in there. Local and International Expertise has been recruited to examine the Flight Simulator. Some data has been dheeted from the simulator and forensic work to retrieve this data is ongoing. The passengers, the pilots, and the crew remain innocent until proven otherwise. For the sake of their families i ask that we refrain from any unnecessary speculation that will make their lives harder. The fbi has also been given copies of the captain and first officers hard drives from their computers in their homes. Those hard drives, those are just copies. The hard drives themselves still remain with malaysian authorities. And did you see this video . This morning when they were giving an update on the investigation, pandemonium broke out because of the victims families, clearly frustrated that theyre not getting any information. They are wondering if the government is withholding information about the investigation. The Malaysian Defense minister then asked secretary hagel from here in the United States how to deal with the public backlash. Heres the attorney general this morning talking about what the u. S. Is doing in terms of assisting the malaysians. I think we are still in the process of trying to determine what happened there and were helping in any way that we can. We are in ongoing conversations about how we can help, and we will make available whatever resources that we have, whatever expertise we have that we might be able to be used. So the latest news, copies of the hard drives from the homes of the pilot and copilot come to the u. S. Where investigators will look at those hard drives, see if theres anything on those hard drives that could shed light on what happened to flight 370. That video this morning when i saw it of that mother asking where her son was was heartbreaking. Heartbreaking. Heartbreaking. Lets hope they find some answers, give them a little bit of information. Phil, thank you so much. Appreciate it. It is the twoyear anniversary of apples dividend announcement. We go through the biggest divid