Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140725 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 25, 2014

She will be with us live. Sue is out, but simon is in at the new york stock exchange, simon. Yes, weve lost 17,000 on the dow. Only six members are in positive territory. It is the credit card manufacturers, although the credit card players and indeed the insurers that are leading the freight down. Visa of course guidance, very poor, and thats a real problem for the Dow Jones Industrial average right now. I want to turn to crude, past 11 00, we saw spike in brent. Moving to the juch side, this is probably related to ukrainian issues. Mr. Van rump, the president of the European Council is backing the idea of additional sanctions against russia, but that is not been confirmed. They have not signed off on that, that is whats moving things. Also some reports that russia may be providing heavier weapon systems to separatists, thats floating out there as a concern. At any point, brent moving up the s p 500 on that news, a little after 11 00. As you can see moved to the downside. Since come off of those lows, but germany had a tougher time. Of course simon covers all of that. You can see germany covering the lows for the day, moving down on that news. Germanys had a tougher time with the ukrainian issues. German now down 2 . Theyre being affected by this. I want to point out another day of weakness after those really disappointing new home sales numbers, yesterday, all of them down another 2 . Horton is down about 12 in the last two days. So obviously a lot of concerns out there in home building. Okay. Thank you very much. Lets get some analysis, president and chief Investment Officer at cab bot wealth management. Berth white, hes chief Investment Officer, gentlemen, welcome to the program. Let me kick off with you, rob. Youre really upbeat about the market. You think in 12 months question get an 18 gain on the s p plus dividends. Why so optimistic . Well thats correct. I believe we could be up to 2300 on the s p 500. The real reason is the fundamentals underneath this market are remarkably strong. Youve got monetary conditions, probably the most bullish in my entire career, youve got an earnings trends, very positive. Youre got a pretty fair value on the market, and investor psychology, in my read, is still in the favorable camp because we dont really have wild speculation going on yet. People are a little more optimistic today. But theyre still fairly cautious on balance. So i think you could have an 18 multiple on earnings estimated for the 12 months out, and thats how you goat 2300. Interesting. Burt, you also believe that at the current evaluations, that should not spell an end to the bull market. You think you can stretch the evaluations as indeed roberts suggesting here . Absolutely. We know where bull market goes to die, and its not 17 times trailing earnings. Tip clip higher than that. We have room to go there. But the real key is earnings growth. Youre going to get growth in the five to 10 range. And if you get that, then that could calls the stock market to rise five, 6, 8 with no North Carolina in evaluations. And so i think thats crucial. And heres whats the real kicker, the kicker is its not just earnings, but Revenue Growth. Thats been the surprise this year. 3. 2 year over year. Thats twice the 1. 5 for last year. And what that means, were seeing sales growth and ceo would now begin to open up the cap ex wallet. I think its going to be business spending thats the catalyst for the rays of this sort of bull cycle. Interesting, rob, what happens when the feds starts raising Interest Rates . Is that a significant depressing factor for you or can you shrug that off because of the fundamentals you were referring to . I think you could get Interest Rates to go 200 basis points before theres real competition for equities. Im not too concerned about that. And i believe today, we saw this past ten days, a real test for the market. We had really difficult geopolitical news with joouk ukraine, russia, the middle east. And you the a chair questioning values, creating doubt for people. We got a new high in the market. Thats telling you theres buying power under this market. I think the path of least resistance will continue to be up. Guys, have good weekends, thank you. Thanks. Great, thank you. All right simon, thank you very much. Former bear ceo passed away. We are joined on the newsline, andrew, he was a colorful and interesting character who rode bear sterns all the way um, then watches it fall. He was a legend on wall street. Warren buffett once wrote ace greenburg does everything better than i do, bridge, magic tricks, all the important things in life, of course he did ride the roller coaster that was bear staerns, started there in 1949 as a clerk at bear. Of course became the coo of that company. He will always perhaps have a bit of a mixed reputation. He did choose jimmy cain to become the coo of that company, of course whiem the company had an enormous rise, it also had an enormous fall, but as you said, he was old school. He was a legend in and of himself. He was a magician, kept a deck of cards, literally on his desk and he used to say, i dont do tricks, i do miracles. And that really is so much of what Allan Greenberg was about. One thing i think worth making and remembering about ace greenberg. He was very charitable, perhaps more than that himself, he actually made the employees of bear stearns be charitable, 4 of their incomes every year, he used to press them to give away. And thats something that i think is worth remembering on this day. Put him into context ab andrew, if you would, with respect to what responsibility, if any, he bore for the ultimate demise of bear stearns. And did he lose his personal fortune when it went away . He lost some of his personal fortune, not all of his personal fortune. You know, there are going to be lots of people with various views on to what degree you blame ace greenberg. I would argue to you that he is, he has less to blame in all of this, in fact he would have argued at the time that he told them they were doing too many risky things, but at the same time, there are other people on the other side of the argument that would say he created a culture. And many of the people who rose to the top of the that the firm did so under him. So, by default, he would bear some form of responsibility. What, two relationships seem to leap out here, one is his relationship with jimmy cain, his successor, tell me a little bit about that the, and also his relationship with donald trump. Well, ill take donald trump first, donald trump happened to be one of his clients. Donald trump has come on our air on squawk box, and other programs and talked about how ace greenberg has made some terrific bets for him over the years and kept him out of a number of stocks that were also the right fits. And jimmy cain was to some degree his protege. So thats that relationship though. It had a mixed, a mixed ending if you would. Thank you for joining us today. Commenting on the pass r of ala ace greenberg, the former chairman of bear stearns and a legend on wleet. It has been a monster week for earnings. Yesterday the biggest day of the quarter so far, we hit the halfway far of the s p 500 companys earlier week. We now have a score board. Tuesday, Tuesday Morning we to want say when we hit that 250 store portion. Were just about halftime when it comes to the earnings season and around 230 companies so far in the s p 500 reported their results. Heres how we stand with our earnings score card. This is all by thompson reuters, 69 of companies so far this season have beaten for profits. 11 met expectations and 20 have reported earnings that have fallen short of estimates. Now the sale side of things, revenues, top line. 63 of beaten revenue estimates and the other 37 have missed. Twothirds of companies doing a good job on the revenue side of things. Then theres a Profit Growth part of the story, which companies are driving profit and sales growth as well. Well Profit Growth is being handled by health care, tech and industrials Health Care Stocks are growing profits by, get this, 16 . Tech by 15, and industrials by 11. So Pretty Healthy growth there. As for the sales side of things, Health Care Still very much up there. Growing by about 10 . Tech is growing by 6 for its sales, and this is interesting, Consumer Discretionary, weve talked about the consumer funk quite a bit, but companies so far this season have grown their revenues, their top line numbers by around 5 . So maybe, maybe an encouraging, possibly encouraging sign. Overall, what is the Profit Growth number . Its around 7, 8 right now. Good quarter compared with the one proceeding it. Yeah. The first time around, we thought there was going to be flat Profit Growth. No real Profit Growth at all. Ended up being 5 or 6 . Remember, this is year over year, at least things are getting better. 60 something percent are beating on the bottom line. Less than that beating on the top line. It is the ones that miss that draw an awful lot of our attention, like amazon, like visa. And the reason why is because some of those misses are from high profile companies, or the larger ones. When you talk about a company like amazon or visa. Those two stocks are accounting for about a third of the s ps drop today. Visa accounting for about 63 . Because its a price index. And it is a heavy, so again, these are numbers, the statistics evenly weigh all the stocks in the s p. The s p itself is market weighted index. Some are a lot bigger than others in terms of its weight. Thank you very much. A developing story now, European Union reaching a deal apparently on additional sanctions against russia. This just a day after president obama said on cnbc that europe needed to stiffen its spine with respect to mr. Putin and rooish. At the same time, a major u. S. Company is in russias cross hairs and we are live in moscow. What can you tell us about russia, what russia is doing with respect top maybe the most american of all companies, mcdonalds . Well, im going to get to that in a second, but there have been three wars going on today, tyler. One of them, probably most of importantly is the war of words between russia and the u. S. There were more fire today this time by the Russian Foreign minister taking aim at the state department spokeswoman. He slammed what he called unfounded public insinuations towards russia. He tipped off her statements that russia is about to supply heavy aircraft weapons to the rebels, and that Russian Forces had actually fired artillery at ukrainian troops from inside russia. He called these unsubstantiates fabrications streaming from kiev who is not shy to make up its own stories, but the pentagon i should say today said that heavy caliber, multiple launch rocket systems could be transferred as early as today. Then we have economic wars. And the sanctions issued very important. Vladimir putin may be feeling a bit less confidence today with the news that as you mentioned that eu had reached a initial agreement on much more robust sanctions this time against russia. The deal in some would include a ban on Eu Investment and embargo on new arm sales to moscow and restrictions on the supply of dual used technologies, like deep sea drilling and shale technology. Among eu members was that the strong sanctions could become law as early as next week. Then we have the berg awards as you said in your lead. There may be a berg award to report. Russian Consumer Protection agency here in moscow filed a lawsuit against mcdonalds in russia claiming that its nutritional information, you know what appears on packages, fat content and calorie content, cheesebergers, specifically as chickenburgers is false and therefore illegal. Its already been fined 70,000. Mcdonalds told us that everything is approved by russian authorities and in order. Top so tyler, youre right, looks like the golden arches, an american icon, are in kremlins cross hairs. Thank you very much. Reporting for us today from moscow. Simon, down to you. Tyler, russia a problem for mcdonalds, russia is also a problem for visa. One stock were watching today as it seriously pressures the dow now down 128 points. Heres Mary Thompson within more. We should note that russia said its not impacts business, limits or new rules are going to cost them about 50 million in revenue. Lets go to the stock first, its impacting visa another way. The companys stock of course the biggest loser among the dow 30 today after lowering revenue forecast for the fuel year. The outward linked to the impact of a persistently strong dollar and decline in payments revenue. These were impacted by unrest in the ukraine and rising political attentions with russia. Here cfo byron pallet on the conference call. Weve seen no signs yet of any acceleration and economic recovery and cost border volume growth remains soft in the mid single digits. Now these are earned better than expected 2. 17 in the fiscal Third Quarter on revenue in line with expectations, but the full year revenue outlook including the impact of Foreign Exchange is now expected to be growth of 7 to 8 . Thats down from a previous forecast of 8 to 9 growth. The firm says marketing expenses rising as well in the Fourth Quarter with the promotion of its new sri is a checkout. As for the coming year, visa said its bullish longterm expecting strong u. S. And International Payments growth remains cautious in the short term because again, its not seeing any acceleration in that global glout, back to you. Thank you very much. The accra moeny getting yet more intense. Now an analyst downgraded a business over the issue. She will be here next. Plus more on why this has become such a big issue now. Morgan. Thanks simon. We followed the money from the u. S. To europe, asia, and back again. Dividends high, nobody wants to cut them, and thats part of the issue. Well have more on that on power lunch in two minutes. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. Yyyup. With xfinity internet soyour family can use all their devices at once. Works anywhere in the house. Even in the garage. Max whats going on . Were doing a tech startup. Were streamlining an algorithm. Were going public [cheering] the fastest inhome wifi for your entire family. The x1 entertainment operating system. Only from xfinity. [ female announcer ] f provokes lust. It elicits pride. Incites envy. And unleashes wrath. Temptation comes in many heartpounding forms. But only one letter. F. The performance marque from lexus. Take a look at shares which are dipping down towards lowing off about 2. 5 . It is dropping after david called it a quote, very attractive short sale candidate if its merger with questcore is completed. Making those comments in the Second Quarter letter to investors. A spokesman for green light declined to comment and tyler, they did also in that letter say theyre short questcore, back to you. Thank you very much. Tax inverngss become a bigger and bigger issue in the United States it seems every day. It happened when Companies Head overseas to avoid paying taxes in this country, and the president told us where he stands in an exclusive cnbc interview yesterday. This is basically taking advantage of tax provisions that are technically legal, but i think most people would say if youre doing business here, if youre basically still an american company, but youre simply changing your Mailing Address in order to avoid paying taxes, then youre really not doing right by the country, and by the american people. Why is this debate heating up now . Morgan brennan knows why, morgan. Well, were going to strap on your seat belts kiddies, were about to go down a rabbit hole that is corporate taxes. Weve been hearing about the tax invernss and it has us wondering why so many now and why so Many Health Care companies. Charles cantor says, the Health Care Sector fulfills three criteria that make this strategy attracti attractive. First, these are Global Companies that have Global Operations that raise a lot of money abroad. Money that would have to, at least in theory pay 35 u. S. Corporate income tax to bring it home. Second, for a tax inverngs to work, the acquisition must be at least 25 of the Companies Market cap, in other words, there has to be an acquisition target thats big enough to buy. Third, and this makes the most sense for companies that pay dividends, because the companies in theory could use cash to pay dividends to investors, so, tax rates are obviously very complicated, they vary by country, plus all the loop holes, say a u. S. Farm ma company has a substantial cash pile abroad. To pay a 4 dividend using that cash, the company has to transfer 6 to the u. S. , then pay up to 35 u. S. Corporate income tax to end up with the 4. This is in theory ab and thats after the tax has been taxed abroad. After the inverngs, again in theory, the company could pay a future 4 dividends and not owe anymore of the u. S. Corporate income tax which could then free up the other 2 of cash for other things. Soex perts say this is why were seeing this in pharma and biotech and not in Tech Companies. Even know Tech Companies have a lot of cash abroad, n

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