Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140825 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch August 25, 2014

Power. Tyler is off this week. Simon is my coanchor. Hi, sue. Historic day down here on the floor of the new york stock exchange, where shortly after 10 00. We hit 2000 for the first time ever. We basically spend the last three hours trying to retake that, but to be honest with you, its been a bit of a struggle. The nasdaq with seema mody. Bob pisani is with me here at the nyse. Lets first kick off with dom chu. If you look at whats happening, we talk about the leaders and lag guards, since the first time the s p crossed 91000 mark. They werent necessarily s p 500 members back then, but look at the stocks on the leading side of things. Its in beverages, take a look at what we are talking about here. This stock is great. Were talking about a company that cocacola just invested in. Keurig green mountain. Up 51,000plus percent, a big move for this stock. This one here, 87 stock. Back in the day, it was not that much. Just worth pennies now up 78,000 some percent. This used to be called hansens natural today, today its known as monster beverage. That stock up 78,000 . If you look at some of the worst performing stocks since then, theres a theme. Theyre all part of this sector. This is one of them. A stock now down 78 , this is a big bang in america. Were talking about citigroup shares. Down about 78 . Thats aig, thats citigroup. The number one worst performing stock, 55. Its aig. It used to be a 670 stock if you adjust for split. So financials still among the worstperformens stocks since 1998, but two Beverage Companies ironically are the best performing stocks since then. Back over to you. Okay. Ill pick it up. Thank you very much. Dom. Dow is in double digits. People keep say why is this happening . I can give you two simple reasons. One is continuing low rates. Not just in europe. Take a look at our tenyear, right around there, 2. 396. Right now thats number one factor. Number two, lower commodity prices. Thats keeping consumers very, very happen happy. Finally theres also the theory that no of course mario draghi, hinting there will be continued stimulus over there. Home builders a bit weak here. Theres sort of disappointing spot here today. July new home sales were very disappointing. Very simple comment, be careful about making brought pronouncements on a quiet day in august. I would like to see what happens when we see more volume and more conviction. Its not that theres no were having light volume on a seasonal basis. All i can tell you is theres not a lot for sale out there right now. Bob. Thank you very much. Lets check out a chart of the qs over certainly the last three months. Seema mody is in times square at the nasdaq suites. Yeah, you know, simon, the resilience being the topic among traders that i speak to, specifically the nasdaq and nasdaq 100, both trading at the highest levels since september of 2000. Internet stocks playing a significant role in not only todays rally, but the rally over the past nine days. Expedia and netflix both trading at 52week highs. This time the momentum pushing these stocks to the up side. As the market gets more expensive, there was talk we would potential see a slowdown in deal activity, but clearly thats not the case. Youre sealing larger pharma. Drug in an effort to strengthen the pipelines. Todays deal providing a lift to other biotech stocks. In terms of some of the biggest winners on the nasdaq 100, its not tech. In fact, consumer Keurig Green Mountain coffee on the Distribution Partnership with kraft and ross stores, its moving higher on stronger than expected earnings. Back to you. Thank you so much, seema. Right now were stocking up for september. How should you invest with the s p 500 hitting another record height breaking through the 200 mark . Joinedings is the comanager the morningstarred fivestart villery rate d. Welcome to both of you. Brian im going to start with you. Were calling it stocking up for september. I know long term ear very bullish, but september can sometimes be a tricky month. How would you put cash to work in this environment . You know weve been buying the dips for some time now. If we do get some sign of a pullback, whether its september or october, we would look at that as a great entry point and opportunity to put additional monies to wok. Theres still some stuff around that looks reasonably valued, so there is some opportunities, but, you know, with the prices as high as they are, you do have to remain cautious. Sandy, what about that . I know long term you were also very bullish on this market, but your strategy also involves taking some profits when stocks have hit specific cornerstones and marks for your portfolio. What are you doing with that . Thats exactly right. We looked at 40 years of data. We saw the only month worse than august was september for the markets, so what were trying to do is were looking at a lot of things about the market, have us a bit cautious. Last friday i think was the lowest day of the year. I think its been one of the longest stretches really in history where we havent had a 10 pullback. I go through my portfolio and try to find where i think the 12month price objective will be. If theyre surpassing that today, were going to sell and take some profits and look to september october to put more money to work at cheaper levels. Brian, what could you buy right now . Whats on your buy list if indeed we get that pullback . Theres some stocks we have owned for some time and continue to really like. Avis budget group, the companys done really well driving revenues and earnings. I think the new Pricing System which rolls out in the latter part of this year continues to expand their margins. Zip cars turning positive, youve got new markets rolling out. We really like them. Another company were really in love with is skechers brand. I think the brand is gaining some rep tagsz. Theyve that i highest Quarterly Sales in company history. Their revenues were up 37 year over year. So theyre doing everything right to drive their sales and profitability. Sandy, if you do raise some cash, where would you put it to work . One of the names i like is lkq. Probably one of the few 8. 4 billion mark Cap Companies that people dont know much about, but they essential refurbish and recycle auto parts. About 25 to 50 cheaper than new. So its about 16 year to date. Trades at about 16 sometimes earnings, and its growing north of 22 . Its a name we like a lot. Another name is Sanchez Energy which will have their analyst day in houston tomorrow. So i hope to learn a lot about acquisitions they just made from shell that will double their production, double their prove reserves. So we want to learn a lot about that tomorrow. But anyway those are two that i like a lot right now. Good ideas for our viewers. Thank you, gentlemen, very much. Appreciate it. Thanks, sue. Today yahoo finances question of the day how are you planning for september . Go to vote at cnbc. Com vote. Check out whats happening, which is a big chinese intern internetsh and sales, so the reason it reported lower margins. Gross profit margin was down two Percentage Points from the First Quarter and operating margin was down 1 , due to heavy marketing expenses and personnel costs. The shares off their session lows, still, simon down by nearly 9 on the days trade. New singlehome sales falling 2. 4 in july. Diana olick has more live from washington. Reporter well, simon sales were down month to month, but theres a huge margin of error. You have to look at june to really understand july. So lets do that. The striae was looking for 425,000 annualized sale in july from the junes really low 406,000. Instead it got 412, but june was revised way up. So it ends up being a 2 , but up over 12 from a year ago. Now there are big regional differences mainly only the south saw a gain month to month. The northeast saw a huge drop in new home sales. The west also a big drop. Every region but the south is down in sales from a year ago. The slower sales pace pushed supplies to six months. Thats a lot less tight. The builders are starting to develop more loss, though starts are still very slow. That, of course, keeps prices high. The median price rose 3 from a year ago, and to give you an thats 21 higher. 9 Home Builders have admitted theyre focusing on the higher end product, because thats where demand is, but d. R. Horton saying they will offer incentives to get more buyers in the door. Diana, thank you. Susan wachter is at, and Raymond James senior vice president. Professor, let me kick off with you. Thank you both for coyning us. How would you sum up the present state of the housing market, professor . Its lagging the overall economy for sure. Thats because weve got investors stepping back and also firsttime homeowners missing in action. Its interesting. We had a very strong new home starts for july coming through. I guess that has more to do with apartment building, which is not what were really talking about in todays figures. Multifamily is doing well. Thats a reflection of renter is the way to go for the mill lennial. They cant become homeowners as in the past. Buck, from an analyst perspective, what is your view, and what does it mean for the stock market or the individual players . Well, i think we were set up for a dismoment given the builders sentiments that came out. We really havent seen a major Inflection Point in Single Family demand in more than a year. The demand is still driven by the renters, and still see demand for singlefamily rental product as well. The sweet spot of the market, like diana mentioned is the moveup segment. If you break down the data sales of 234u homes, which is a fairly expensive home for most households were up 34 year over year. Sales under that 300,000 mark were only up 6 year over year. Bottom line in terms of investments, what do you like at the moment . Exactly. Bottom line is we would stick with Home Builders more focused on the moveup segment, and have land positions that we think are in the best and highest Quality School districts. Thats where we think theres a differentiation in the market. Names like toll brothers, lie pauly group, standard pacific, and smallcap pure play. All have very highquality land positions. We would stay away, names and nor like a d. R. Horton, maybe a kaybee homes, those names just have positions that we like. If you were invited in, what would you say . Well, we need to redo housing, its on the table, but we havent gotten there. We have constrahan, constraint, constraint. Were talking about the calm years and decades were double those down payment requirements. Its basically taking the firsttime homebuyer out of action. Its making it a different market to trade up as well, but certainly theres more action in the tradeup, and multifamily is whats doing well because of this. Good to see you both. Susan wachter, and coming up next, were going to tell you about a unique earthquake warning system, plus josh lipton is on the cleanup that is occurring after that napa quake. Hes live in napa. Over to you, josh. Reporter well, sue, take a look at this building behind me. This is in fact the oldest commercial building in napa. The inspectors are. The fear is this building might have to get torn down. Well have more on what napa is doing to get back online. Thats culling up next on power lunch. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price, maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. [ squeaking ] [ water dripping ] visit tripadvisor hawaii. [ whistling ] with millions of reviews, tripadvisor makes any destination better. After gallo, downplaying damage to the operations in the Northern California earthquake that was centered in napa valley. It reported minor damage inside some of its wineries, but nothing structural, saying the vineyards were not affected. That stock you can see, still down about three quarters of a percent, but still not at bad as people thought it would be. Thats a good note to leave it on. Were going to talk more about the earthquake, though. This is the Security Camera video from a 7eleven in american canyon. Basically you can see that its showing us what happened with the earthquake, and its basically showing what happens when the quake strikes. You can see the customer and clerk run for the exit. The food falling in the aisles. Mary thompson is here at cnbc headquarters with a look at the business of earthquake insurance and the financial loss, but first were going to go for josh lipton. Hes on the ground there in napa. Reporter the city has identified 33 buildings as unsafe because of damage from this earthquake, and nearly 100 in total throughout the area. So government buildings, the post office, the courthouse, are deemed hazardous. As for private Business Owners impacted, for them its about getting back up and running as quickly as possible. To help them, a private Company Based in california called rest ray Management Company has been brought in to help. It specializes in emergency services, so sewage cleanup, demolition, construction, whatever it takes basically to get businesses back. Basically trying to get these buildings back up and going so businesses can open up again as well. Reporter thats what the city wants to see, the businesses get back online, and to keep this economy growing. Sue, back to you. Josh, thank you very much. To mary thompson, the usgs estimating the loss could be in the billions. Tell us more about that and the insurance costs. Well, sue, the United States Geological Survey says when it does come to economic losses, its tagging the napa earthquake with a red alert. According to the usgas website it suggests to 10 billion, but equicat puts it half a billion to a billion. We know for sure its a fluid situation, and the numbers will be changing, as the interruptions to businesses are understood. Still, this could make it the third or fourth most expensive in terms of insured losses. The last quake to hit that region was back in 199. While the usgs says the there are plenty of vulnerable structures there. Adding disruption to the Tourism Industries and the wineries, and those losses are likely to mount. While california is home to two thirds of the and 2,000 known fault lines, only 12 of the states homeowners actually carry earthquake insurance. The percentage in napa even lower, according to the Insurance Information institute. Cost and high deductibles are a high reason that homeowners opt out for covering their homes. And it only covers the structural damage, any fires or disruptions, gas pipes, should be covered by regular homeowner so its a structural issue. I remember in Southern California we were required to have it by or mortgage holder, and it was really expensive. But it changed after the northridge earthquake in 1984, because the Insurance Companies didnt want to do it anymore. Understandably so. That was the most expensive earthquake, of course. Thank you, mary, very much. Simon, down to you. Its worth pointing out that earthquake Early Warning systems are in place given alerts before they actually hit. Earthquake, earthquake, light shaking expected in 3 seconds. Like this one, the shake alert system is a collaboration between uc berkeley, cal tech and the university of washington, and instead the u. S. Geological survey. Joining us is john vidali, the Pacific Northwest northwest seismic network. Professor welcome to the program. I suppose the important thing is earthquakes travel at the speed of sound, but you can transmit a signal at the speed of light, therefore you could get an Early Warning to say, downtown l. A. , hopefully eventually . Thats exactly right. Thats just how they work. You can give a few seconds or best kay even a couple minutes of warning. What is the state of the technology at the meantime. Where do we need to get to . The concept is simple, as you just explained. Its really that we need the equipment to reliably detect the shaking and we need the ability to transmit the information and need to use the information once people received it. So its really the fact that we have to build out the software and prepare people to use the information. Theres no huge technological problems. There is a judgment, though, in what do you if you go ahead a 30second warning that a quake is on its way. Presumably elevators stop, surgeries stop, what type of things would you envisage. Theres quite a lot. Getting off bad bridges, vie aducts, surgeries stuck in hospitals, airplanes not landing, you know trains that would rather not run into landslides. Also peoples frame of minds. If they know whats coming, they can prepare. How do you deliver it . I guess for each individual application do you get a siren . An audible voice . How would you ideally do it . It depends, were most of these things would be your cell phone can tell you when and how severe, your television would have it pop up, the computer, sirens, as youre saying. Mostly a lot of automated signals would go out to machinery and controls. I imagine its going to cost some money to do this. We have a specific plan, and its under 20 million a year. Thats where we are now. There would be an incentive. We have to leave it there, too, john. John vidale joining us from the Pacific Northwest seismic institute. We have some exclusive footage of the sochi track. Thats good news for sochi. What about the other former sites . Well look at how some have fareed since they hosted the games. It could become one of the most expensive divorces ever. Robert frank is on the story. Expensive indeed, so harold hamm is worth more than 20 billion. As part of the divorce hes arguing the companys success is mainly due to luck. Well explain why and what it could cost him. We want to hear from you. In a divorce, should assets earned durin

© 2025 Vimarsana