Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140930 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch September 30, 2014

F 150. Phil will give us a live test drive and review the new truck in real time. That is coming up. First to sue at the nyse. After getting off to a decent start stock markets struggling a little bit on the last trading day of september and the quarter. The dow is up 1 1 3 points. The s p tracking towards its worst quarter in nearly two years. Despite the volatility this month the dow flat for september but the s p 500 down about 1. 5 . The nasdaq down more than 1. 5 , as well. The big talk down here is the brent crude contract and west texas intermediate getting crushed. The gold market getting hit hard down 2. 5 on brent crude down almost 3. 5 on west texas intermediate has a lot of people using the d word, deflation. And it was brought up and it is interesting because we didnt show gold but we will show it later and that is getting hit very hard. It is starting to impact the stock market a little bit here. We had a bid to the market. Take a look at the s p 500. I said there was a bid in the market. We started weak but the market came back quickly and then started moving to the down side. Partly this is a problem with the oil complex. Take a look at west texas intermediate. There are some concerns. Those start affecting the market. It tends to effect the whole oil complex and that has been the major issues. You are seeing small effects here. 1 down in chevron. It is not this group, not big oil that gets hurt but the high beta names like eog and the shale plays like pioneer. They are down almost 4 overall. It is not just that. Look at the metals. Base metals are weak and gold and silver are weak. We are getting across the board weakness. I think there is a little concern about Global Growth and little on hong kong. We will see you again in a little. We have breaking news right now. Thats right. The department of justice announced that four members of what it is calling an International Computer hacking ring have been charged of breaking into computers of technology companies. Among data stolen is data related to x box one gaming consol as well as popular games such as call of duty as well as proprietary software used to train helicopter pilots. The department of justice putting the total value of up to 100 million to 200 million. Among the companies they say were hacked were microsoft corporations epic games, zombie studios and the u. S. Army. Did you say where these hackers were from . The people who have been charged here, a variety of individuals listed, nathan lurue, and austin alkala of indiana. Looks like mostly people in the United States here, one overseas. What they are saying is the defendants conspired to use, share and sell the stolen information. No indication on what if anything they actually did. And presumably they were working together in some sort of loose confederation. No indication that they were moles or operatives working for a Foreign Government or Foreign Company . No indication from what the department of justice has put out that this is connected to foreign intelligence. What the officials are saying here is that they are concerned about theft of u. S. Trade secrets here. That might give you an indication of what it is they are concerned about. Thanks very much. Interesting story breaking. We will keep you posted on it. Disappointing European Economic data out today. It is continuing to push the euro lower against the dollar down nearly 8 over the past three months. Earlier the u. S. Dollar index touching highest level since july 2010. This is making cnbc contributor question his market strategy. Why . Because i actually think this is good for dollar denominated asset prices. The numbers in europe came up poorly and cpi was very, very low meaning that keep pedal to the medal. It is nice to be reminded. The dollar rally and the global money continues to look for places to invest. So they end up in u. S. Stock market or bonds. For the last two weeks i have been mildly negative on stocks. If we have a strong close today i think we have gone six weeks kind of in a side ways pattern and we could go higher. Quick answer here. A strong u. S. Dollar can hurt u. S. Multinationals as much as it can help some companies. You have to balance the hurting nationals against helping the consumer. I maybe give it a more positive that injects money into the economy. Thanks very much. Sue, down to you. The market on track to close with kwaurthly gains in some cases but can the rally continue into q 4 given the volatility in the geopolitical risks . We want to hear from you. Is this a good time to invest outside the u. S. . Join our conversation at cnbc. Com vote. With me here on the floor of the u. S. Stock Exchange Global market strategist. We have chief investment strategist at pnc Asset Management group. What kind of quarter do you expect coming up given the fact that we saw such a selloff in riskbased assets in september . You are absolutely right. If you look across the board in september there has been a selloff whether we look at markets or credit. I think we have to figure out what it is that is not driving the selloff. It is not geopolitical fears or sluggish data or the hawkish fed. I think it is the pickup in the volatility in the short end of the yield. As we project that into the Fourth Quarter i do expect to see that volatility to continue to move higher. In other words the three year yield to move higher. That doesnt mean u. S. Equities suffer but emerging market debt could be a challenging place to be. Bill, what kind of quarter are you expecting . October is a very volatile month for most investors . I think in some respects i have agreement in the sense that i dont expect volatility to calm down a whole lot. Most of this year has been extremely not very volatile at all. It doesnt surprise me we are getting closer to at least a couple of Central Banks starting to raise rates that the markets are starting to adjust to that. I think some of the volatility is also from what you are hearing some today in terms of the oil markets which is worries about the overall global economy. I think the u. S. Continues to plow through that okay. It would be nice to have it as a tail wind. Right now i think it is hurting the overall sentiment at the moment. Where would you put money to work . In high beta sectors or no . Yes. That might sound a little bit counter intuitive because those are the exact names that have suffered, the energies, industrials, materials. I think we start to get a little more decerning we can find opportunities. One of the areas that suffered were the oil services because of the sanctions but that doesnt mean the pipelines will continue to suffer, as well. The other side of this oil story is not just about the demand but supply of oil and supply is surging. We need the infrastructure to support it. I think high beta secl aa cyclil see a rebound. I Like Technology and materials. In materials we think of really interesting stories, maybe u. S. Chemicals business because you get the cheap inputs from the u. S. Energy renaissance competing against the Higher Oil Prices elsewhere. The gas inputs i think is one place to look in the final quarter. We kept it domestic but the question we had is now a good time to invest outside the u. S. . 60 said no. That may be because of the geopolitical risks. Good to see you again. Bill, always good to see you. Thank you. Tensions rising in hong kong and that, of course, has roiled markets there and around the world. Hong kongs beijing selected leader calling on demonstrators to go back to their homes. A lot of moving parts. To this tense and developing story we have why the protests are happening. Dom chu on why hong kong matters. First we go to cnbc on how china is stamping out any attention from the protests on the mainland. Reporter beijing authorities are taking more aggressive steps to try to clamp down on the conversations here about the hong kong protests and have been vetting the chinese internet and blocking instagram and censoring social media apps and also today they decided to blackout Tv Networks Including cnbc. All of this is done so that the beijing government can control the information about the hong kong protests and control the way theyre presented to the chinese public. The state media has been focusing on the costs of the protests to hong kong. Many of those reports are focusing on how schools have been closed or how offices have been heavily inconvenienced and reports about how the hong kong markets have fallen and that Investment Sentiment world wide has been shaken. The beijing authorities are facing a tough challenge with hong kong. If they decide to back down on this issue they can be perceived as weak by others in the government apparatus or emboldened around the country. If you decide to crack down that presents another big problem for them. They could attract international con demnation, alien ate the public and potentially undermine a Financial Center that is very important to china. Tomorrow is going to be national day. A lot of people are wondering how that will factor into the beijing governments thinking mainly because people are wondering if beijing wants to be seen as cracking down on people on a day that is meant for national unity. Cnbc, beijing. Thank you very much. Lets bring in michelle carussocabrerra with more on hong kong. If you are wondering why thousands of chinese citizens think they have the right to demand democracy from the antidemocratic government china has only controlled hong kong for 17 years. Before that it was controlled by the british for more than 150 years. Under the uk they enjoyed tremendous economic freedoms, not necessarily Political Freedoms and a lot of growth. In the 70s hong kong was one of the asia tiger economies. In 1997 when the british handed the island over to china in a ceremony broadcast all over the world. This is video from nbc nightly news the day that it happened. It was an event full of pomp and emotion. You can see Prince Charles was there as they played god save the queen. They lowered the british flag. Thousands of soldiers, fireworks and raised the chinese flag. Last governor appointed by the british sobbed during the ceremony. At the time there was a joint declaration between china and britain. They call it one country, two systems. Although hong kong will be taken over by communist china at the time it will be allowed to remain capitalist. Starting a few years after the handover there are political skirmishes back and forth. Although we are seeing the thousands and biggest, longest protests we have seen there have been many over the last ten years. Beijing wants to pass an antisubversion law. People of hong kong protest. In 2007 hong kong is promised universal suffrage, one vote one person by 2017. What we know now and what they are protesting is that the Chinese Government is saying you can vote but only the candidates that we approve. And they dont see that as the spirit of the agreement. They want to be able to vote for anybody they would like. They didnt have great democratic freedoms under the british. They had a legislative council. They were a colony. Thank you very much. To dominic chu on why hong kong matters for business and investors. It is a huge banking capital. It is a huge banking capital. Lets pick up where michelle talked about the british rule and how it grew. Hong kong is regarded by many as being the third most important Financial Hub globally after new york, london and then hong kong. Here is the reason why. It is a financial powerhouse. The banking and Insurance Industries alone employ an estimated 213,000 people just in this small city state, special Administrative Region of china. It also just the banking and insurance side of the sector, that industry is responsible for about 43 billion worth of Economic Activity alone. That is why this is a huge economic powerhouse. It could have ripple effects for the Banking Industry globally. Take a look at another reason why. The trade side of things. Trade is a huge part of the hong kong dna. It has been a trade port for generations. Just this past year Container Association in hong kong said that nearly 1 trillion worth of goods was trafficked in and out of the hong kong port. A huge shipping center, as well, possible ripple effects. And then the absolute obvious reason why. It is still part of china. Of course, china, the worlds second biggest economy and 9. 2 trillion of gdp ranks it just behind the u. S. If there are ripple effects this is a big one far more so than any other place around the world. When there is unrest like we have seen in Hong Kong Capital gets a little bit nervous. Robert frank always following the money. What could this mean for where people put their money . Money seeks safety. Money from china and hong kong is seeking safety in u. S. Real estate. Chinese buyers spent more than 22 billion last year in u. S. Real estate. California is their favorite spot along with Washington State and new york. With hong kong becoming less attractive as a safe haven brokers telling me we could see more wealth coming here. Helping one chinese billionaire look for a property for more than 40 million and says inquiries were especially strong over the summer. And a broker in l. A. Telling me he had two brand new chinese clients over the weekend looking for a house. The challenge here is that getting money out of china very difficult right now. So you are getting offers and contracts but a lot of deals blowing up because they cant get the money out because of the capital control. Michelle was describing some of the controls and how people circumvent them for exactly this reason. Hong kong was a safe haven for the chinese. Now that is off the table. That change the whole flow of money. We dont know how this is going to work but some of it could come here. The money is also flowing out of russia. We are keeping a very close eye on Russias Central Bank because they say they do not attempt to implement capital controls after the record low. It has plunged almost 20 versus the dollar amid tensions with ukraine. The reason the chart is going up to the right is that is the dollar compared to the ruble. The russian stock market tanked some 20 this year alone. Not since cocacola changed the formula has an iconic brand attempted such a change. Ford is gearing up to do just that. Phil lebeau is live in san antonio, texas. Reporter sue, welcome inside the new ford f series. What stands out is they have replaced the steel panels with aluminum alloy. You know what we are going to do . We are going offroad testing out the new f series live on power lunch. I hope i dont mess things up. We will see you in about 60 seconds. And making something stronger. Will mean making it lighter. One day, factories will work with the cloud. One day. Is today. Shares of conway taking a hit. Now saying it will increase pay for certain drivers. Higher pay means higher costs. The company said it is facing the most pronounced driver short fall it has ever seen. That is getting hit hard down 4. 5 . Ebay shares heading for the best day in more than two years. The internet auction giant announcing it is splitting off the pay pal business into an independent publically traded company. Stock is up better than 8 . Ebay ceo spoke exclusively to our david faber about the big move. As we have continued our annual assessment looking forward three to five years about how we can best position ebay and pay pal we think the Competitive Position and environment of commerce and payments are going through accelerating change. That creates new sets of opportunities and challenges for both ebay and pay pal and that operating independently and separate will give ebay and pay pal focus, strategic flexibility and an ability to move quickly and decisively in this changing environment. Here are some of the details. Ebay market places president will become the ceo of the new e bay after the company is split. American express executive joins pay pal as president and ceo designee. And others will serve on the boards of the new companies. Todays big move pushing shares up 3 so far this year. Thank you. Ford shares taking a bit of a hit as you will see in just a moment. There they are down 26 cents about 1 2 3. Costs from u. S. Recalls. This comes as ford takes one of the biggest gambles in its history. Phil lebeau is in san antonio with more. Reporter that big bet is all about this big truck. This is the new ford f series. This truck is about 700 pounds lighter than previous f series trucks because they stripped out the steel panels and now are replaced with high strength aluminum alloy. Is it durable . We are here in san antonio at an offroad course that ford set up. Let me give you a sense of what we can do with this truck. We are going to go out here. This is a shallow stream here. The whole point here is that we want to show the capability of the truck. Thats just a little taste in the shallow stream. As we go here we continue on the course. A couple of things that stand out. The whole idea is that ford wants a lighter truck for fuel efficiency but didnt want to give up on capability. They show it can take the type of beating that few people will put their truck through but the truck is handling. We drove it yesterday for several hours on the course. One of the neat features is hill dissent. If you are coming down a steep grade you dont have to hold the brake. It will do it for you. That is a taste of what this is all about. The reason this is so important, you are looking at a vehicle that ford makes 8,000 to 10,000 per truck in profit. It is critical to the company. Thats why they want to make sure this truck is the right truck and people will be buying it. I know you have driven the f 150 with the steel panels in it. Obviously this performs very well. How does it feel to drive it, though . Thats a real personal thing with drivers, the way that the truck feels and handles. By the way, you look great in that. Reporter yeah. Its real practical living in suburban chicago. We are going to go back this way. As we are going back this way the question that you asked is how does it handle . It handles great. That is not a question at all. I

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