Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20141020 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch October 20, 2014

Your drinking. And the head of the fbi. Well, hes laying into Big Tech Companies like apple saying the new antisnooping policies cryptography are hurting National Security. We want to hear from you on that topic. Vote cnbc. Com vote. Your chance to be heard starts now. First to sue on another day for stocks. The dow lower for the 16th time in some 21 sessions being dragged down by ibm. The Dow Jones Industrial average trading down by about 62 points. The nasdaq is in the green and the s p 500 is in the green. S p up by about 6. Lets get more on the trading action. Hi, bob. Ibm hurting the Dow Jones Industrial average and not dramatically the rest of the market. We are a lot calmer than a week ago. Two things really matter right now, number one, oil has stabilized from 105 to low 80s in oil. We have been there for the last three days. Stability really matters particularly for the big energy names. Exploration and production stocks many of them like chesapeake down north of 25 . Take a look at big names. Last three days they have been bouncing back. Not dramatically but have stabilized. The other key headline is ebola. When you have 43 of 48 people on the original watch list in the all clear that was a huge relief for the overall market. You can see the effect on travel stocks, united, delta, norwegian. Royal caribbean dropped 18 to almost 20 in the last several weeks. That, too, has started bouncing back not coming back to where it was before but you can see that. That is an enormous relief. You see this in Home Builders for example. Itb dropped about 10 in the correction that we saw just about a week ago. And now that, too, is essentially back to where it was just prior to that announcement. You can see it in the vix. We went from 15 to 30 over 30 in the vix at the height last week. Now we are back to about 20 in that area. That is a sign of relief. Back to you. Big interview today. David faber sat down with ibm ceo. David is here with the details. A rough report from ibm this morning. Without a doubt. A significant disappointment, something that she was not shy about admitting to, a quarter in which the company abandoned the long held road map for financial targets, for example, trying to earn 20 a share by 2015. And seeing the stock down by as much as 7 because of weakness across the board. Another divestiture, part of a strategy ibm following namely getting out of low margin businesses as it continues to invest in what it believes will be the transformative technologies of the future, of the present really data, analytics, cloud and things of that nature. Back to the quarter says it was a disappointment. Our Third Quarter is a disappointment. I should circle back, make no mistake. I dont minimize that. Although it is a point in time it is a disappointment to us. Woo eare going to take bold action about the quarter and bold actions as we continue to move to the future. It seems given the transformation taking place and will take place over time you may have disappointments in the future. Do you have confidence that you wont have a repeat of this quarter in the sense of given the causes of it arent necessarily going to be offset by many of the things you are doing in terms of higher value businesses that will take time. I have great confidence not just in the strategy but a strategy that already has results and a set of actions if i go back fm the beginning of the year that have been bold. We will continue to make those. The speed of the market everybody says including yourself has increased. How at ibm with 431,000 employees can you be agile enough . There is no doubt that market place speed has increased. The idea that they use three shifts changing technology. Technology has always been an industry that changed frequently. With the three different shifts all at once it is converging and causing more rapid. So one way you do it is very Clear Strategy. That is what i feel we have. We have a Clear Strategy about how to take this company to the future. More than a strategy, a whole list of bold actions we have taken one after another this year. When you are clear with your workforce and engage them that is how you move them swiftly. So that is really what we are about is mixing into all of those new initiatives while our core business we continue to innovate in it. 2 1 2 years into her tenure this is clearly her ibm, if you will. Some would say her predecessor who put out this road map that was very closely followed by the buy side now that she has abandoned that is in the sense that not they are abandoning buybacks but saying we are devesting the businesses we want to get rid of and making bets on Growth Initiatives because there is part of theover all revenue. Almost a half a million employees. How do you turn the battleship at the speed of Business Today . It is tough. It is very difficult. Bigger than the city of cleveland. More people work for ibm. Thanks very much. Sue, over to you. As you and david have set out for ibm shares plunging after walking away from the forecast for 2015. Was ibm too generous with shareholders . Here is analyst in july. Ibm is a poster child. They literally face the threat not too dissimilar to what kodak and xerox in terms of new technology staring them right in the face. Instead of increasing investment to combat the threat they have actually borrowed a lot of money to buy back stock. What is the path forward for ibm and the other big cap stocks . Lets bring in art hogan, chief Market Strategist and hue johnson. Let me start with ibm. Your take on the walk back of their forecast and their buyback. Well, you know, obviously it is really disappointing. We are going to have to revise downwards our estimates for what the company is going to do not only this year but in 2015. That kind of changes the valuation metric some. It is no longer trading at say nine times. It is now ten and a half times earnings. That is not dirt cheap. We would like to have it dirt cheap but it is not dirt cheap. Quite frankly, sue, i honestly think we are going to have to cut back on our position. We have 3. 2 for equity portfolio. We are going to reduce this not while it is low. It is very disappointing. There arent many times i have heard you say that so obviously you are very disappointed in that. Art, what about you . It is interesting you talk about the pace of change and the speed of transition, ibm unfortunately is saddled with two thirds of the business that is incumbent. It is difficult to make that pace of change at a pace that investors are happy with. This is going to be a story we are probably talking about for a while. When you think about the fact that ibm has been in the Dow Jones Industrial longer than most chairman of Disruptive Technology company. It brings up a lot of arguments. Best use of cash or dividends or do you need to reinvest and reinvent yourself. What about the overall market after the big hiccup that we saw did you add to positions . Are you optimistic long term . It has been a big change since september. It was 4 when you talked to us. Secondly, there was wide spread optimism. Now we have had this decline and moved from being 4 overvalued to 4. 5 under valued. That is really good news. There is a lot more pessimism out there. The only thing missing right now, sue, which makes me a little hesitant to add to positions aggressively now is that pessimism is not really wide spread enough. There is still a little bit of denial and complacency out there. I think over the course of the next week or two we might see more pessimism then you will have it all. You will have low valuation for the market generally, wide spread pessimism and that signals we make the change and head to the upside once again. Drag your feet while adding to positions at current levels. What about that, art . Your final thoughts on where you might find opportunity now that we have seen a pullback in this market . Absolutely, sue. One thing to keep an eye on over the next two weeks the russell 2 led us here and seems to be leading us to the rebound. Transportations dont lie and they are certainly showing us a Bigger Picture than the broader market. As we work through earnings season there will be good news out there and the multiples look attractive. We are trading at 16 times last year and 14. 5 next years earnings. That is a pretty big value for the s p. We leave it there. To jane wells, a developing story this hour. A further sign that legalized marijuana is going through growing pains. The ap reporting that Health Department of colorado is recommending banning the sale of most forms of edible marijuana. Edibles have become incredibly popular especially with first time users but have been serious consequences as people dont know how much they are ingesting and the state has been coming up with new rules trying to come up with them for packaging. The ap said it got an advanced copy and they want to ban the sale of limiting edibles to lozenges. The final decision will be up to Colorado Department of revenue. It will take the Health Departments considerations into consideration. Washington has recently started allowing edible sales of legal pot there. We called the Colorado Department of health to get more information and when we get it we will let you know. Back to the markets now. Lets bring in our power player. The chief Investment Officer at j. P. Morgan private bank. Good to see you back. October so far has proven true to its historical nature which is it has been extremely volatile and very hard for people to trade it. As you look at this market now, how do you view it . We are very constructive still on the 12 month outlook. We were chatting before, people have forgotten what a correction feels like. This is a good Old Fashioned traditional made a lot of money, markets ran hard, nothing is cheap. I think the thing that changed for us is what we are seeing in bond markets. Bond markets really had been the focus point for us in terms of growth. Before we come back to bonds i want to get your thoughts on europe. I know you follow it closely. You have been constructive on europe for a good time. Many of those countries in correction territory. Some in danger of going into recession. What are you doing with europe . We have been buying the u. S. Over the last week and a half. We pulled back to a neutral position in europe. I think the bigger debate for us is where to go over the next months with regard to growth. Do not believe we are going back into recession. Some countries might. We do not believe the eurozone will. The bigger issue for me, the imf meetings in washington a week ago there was a great deal of sensationalism. The reality is we expect a Global Growth next year to be higher than Global Growth this year. Bigger issue for europe is 1. 5 growth is the magic number for me. That is enough to sustain earnings, top line growth and weaker euro will help. We are running at about 0. 7 right now. The big word on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange has been deflation with oil kind of threatening to crack 80. It hasnt done it yet. Are you worried about deflation here in the u. S. Or not . Not at all. Disinflation, yes but i think it plays to the positive once we have gone through this. The gap we have seen in Energy Prices i think caught everyone offguard. The expectation is we would see the saudis pulling back. There are a couple of agendas going on here. Shale is something that middle east want to challenge. Iraq and iran will bring tension. Demand is less. Global growth is growing at 3 and not 4 . You have been pulling back from europe and putting money to work in the United States. I know individual security isnt what you talk about. Where are you finding the opportunities within the u. S. Market . What sectors . Its funny. All roads lead to baupds. I will get you to go back there anyway. Bonds play into stronger dollar and stronger dollar to mid cap. We have had huge allocations in overweights in the u. S. Mid cap. It plays into Earnings Growth and recovery story and more broadly into valuation dynamics. The sectors we are still procyclical. We like financials and tech. We have been flirting with energy at this point. It looks a lot more interesting than it did a month to a month and a half ago. Talk to me about japan and asia. You had an exacting call on japan about a year or so ago. How do you feel about japan now . You lightened up on japan at the right time. So do you like asia . What part of asia do you like . Japan we went back into in march and early april. Positions there were probably still up anywhere from 8 to 10 year to date. Critical issues we hedge down at the end. I still believe that fundamentally the yen has to hold marginally weaker to play it out. We play small and mid cap in japan. Where you think the u. S. Is a higher beta call it is actually a better more sdat call on japanese growth and earnings. The Government Pension Investment Fund announced increasing the Institutional Investments in equity markets in japan. It is still a concern for me but we are still constructive. What happened in bonds last week . Did it cause you to reduce sort of your upward bound on where u. S. Ten year rates may go . The latter first, yes. Some of it is also european driven because with Slower Growth you are not going to watch the anticipation in the fed and the bank of england having to raise rates as aggressively. I have never in my career, tyler, and im not that old, seen the movement we have seen in the bond market last year. We traded seven handles. 102 to 109 has been staggering. That was literally the reverse trade to what we saw in markets in the taper tantrum. That scared people into thinking lower for longer forever. People came in this year very short bonds and have been squeezed out. That is healthy. That does it, right . Good to see you. Nice to have you back. We send it to domk. The stock moving higher at edison after the Energy Solutions company pitched. The stock up by about 7 . A couple of different programming notes. Ceo will be live on fast money today at 5 00 p. M. Eastern. And then David Einhorn will be on Halftime Report tomorrow at noon eastern time here on cnbc. A couple of mustsee interviews all involving that solar and alternative energy space. Big tech making moves to keep government out of data. The fbi director going as far as saying this will make america less safe. We want to know where you stand. Go to cnbc. Com vote. Should Tech Companies put National Security over profits . The question should they do that . More power lunch in two minutes. The all new, head turning cadillac ats coupe. Its irresistible. Its monday. A brand new start. Your chance to rise and shine. With centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you can do just that. With our visionary cloud infrastructure, Global Broadband network and Custom Communications solutions, your business is more reliable secure agile. And with responsive, dedicated support, we help you shine every day of the week. Centurylink your link to whats next. Welcome back to power lunch. We are watching shares of steve madden after the shoe Company Reported Third Quarter sales and cut the profit forecast. The stock is down about 9 floating near session lows on the day. It is a big day for apple today. The tech giant reporting earnings after the bell just launching apple pay moments ago. Josh lipton has the details on that for us. Reporter well, sue, if you find yourself at whole foods maybe shopping for groceries and you have an iphone 6 or 6 plus then you can leave your credit cards at home. That is apples hope as it launches apple pay, its new mobile payment service. Here is how this will work. At 220,000 locations across the country, whole foods, macys mcdonalds and many more users can get in the checkout line and hold up the 6 or 6 plus to the special reader and with a tap of the finger the transaction is complete. If you look at the mobile Payments Market it is growing fast expected to quadruple by 2017 according to Forester Research apple wants to capitalize on that growth. Some consumers may have concerns about whether apple is going to store, collect and sell information about them or their Shopping Habits to advertisers but apples executives tell me the company has no intention of doing that. Going to expect everyone to use their phone to pay we thought it is really critical that apple or noone else really know what you are buy or how much you are paying. We wanted privacy to be a key component of that. Reporter so saying this is going to be an easier, faster and more secure way to make these transactions. Apple is not saying how specifically the company will make money off the service but saying he thinks the service will be popular enough to motivate more people to buy iphones. Apple and other Big Tech Companies, are they putting their profits and the personal security of their clients ahead of National Security interests . According to the fbis director they are. The question for you, should they . We have voting underway. Go join us at cnbc. Com vote. There you see the running tally. Live in washington and while he reports you vote. Reporter thats right. Fbi director making waves with a speech at the end of last week in which he went after apple and google and said that we are at a point where mistrust of government has gotten so fa

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