Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20150122 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 22, 2015

1178. It is 1 higher. Sue . How you doing . Doing good ty. Lets get you the details on what the ecb or European Central bank did. It shot the big bazooka, a trillion year rows worth for the region. Heres the headlines. In march, the ecb is buying up 60 billion euros a month of bonds. Agency bonds account for 12 of the buying and end date is september of 2016 but that could be extended and weve seen that picture before. Most assets but not all, will be investment grade. The euro headed for its worst month in ten and a half year, plunging 18 . Right now it is trading on the 1. 1378, down 2 on the trading session. The tenyear note at 1. 819 . We are joined here on the floor of the nyse and most is agency, but as long as cypress, portugal, and greece have an imf program, even if the debt is investment grade, they can participate in this. Thats right. Bottom line is this is an openended program. Thats what everyones talking about. Not just one trillion. Can go on if they dont meet inflation targets. People ask, why weak at the open . It was a massive bid in bonds all over the world throughout the morning, and i think that might have drained liquidity from the stock market. We turned around here in the middle of the day. Hey, if the goal of the program was a lower bond yields its a success. Bond yields dropped in germany and throughout europe. The bund lost 8 basis points. Its 39. 45. Look at the drop in the german bund yields. It happened all throughout europe. In the u. S. , modest gains in the u. S. Financials up. Technology stocks moving to the upside as well. Some of the Interest Rates sensitive groups like utilities and Telecom Stocks are down as the dollar inarguably strengthened on the news there. Theres the movement what happens when the ecb is aggressive . Sue, we asked our partners what happens times before when ecb has hinted at qe or announced other kinds of buying programs . A day later, the s p 500 was positive 100 of the time. This happened nine times since july 2012 when draghi said whatever it takes, average gain is 1. 4 . 100 of the time the following day the s p is up over the two day period. In europe you see germany, spain, and italy, up majority of the times, up nicely here spain up and italy 3. 2, and germany 1. 7. These announcements first qe program, but it made other kinds of announcements like that definitely moved our markets as well as the european markets. Bob, see you later, okay . Now, the nasdaq 100 is positive for the year, we are following big movers uptown. Bertha . Hovering near the even mark today, really the best performing sector led by big cap tech names like ebay on the back of the earnings today, one of the best performers here on the nasdaq 100. Amazon and some of the other names in consumer names doing well. The momentum names even today finding love as well like netflix and tesla. Apple is the big reason why. Look at this apple chart. Apple is positive for the year here, a week or so ahead of its earnings announcement. More enthusiasm for what it might report with regard to iphone6 sales, but its reaching a technical point, a dollar away from its 50day moving average. That could be an area of resistance if we get disappointing news. Meantime meantime, the airlines very much on fire. Boy, with that euro hitting a new low today, maybe youre thinking about booking a trip to europe. Southwest earnings giving the whole group a lift. We got new highs over here for jetblue and american airlines. Sitting out the party . Bioteches today. Investors cant get enough of them, but they issued 2 billion in secretary offerings over the last couple days and a little bit of fatigue there. Back to you guys. All right. Thank you very much. I was talking to the Steve Leisman offline, and Michelle Carusocabrera is live in athens with the fallout there ahead of the major election over there, but, first, to our senior economics reporter steve with more on the nuts and bolts such as there are nuts and bolts left to discuss about the move. Tyler, there are. Its an interesting move. Its detailed here. I want to go through it for folks. Some was said, but heres additional information. 60 billion euros monthly. Remember they talked yesterday about 50. They leaked that to surprise the market. It runs through september 2016 except it doesnt. It runs until inflation ticks up. There is resharing. There was a question about that between the National Banks that are part of the that make up the European Central bank and the European Central bank. New, michelle will talk about it in a second. There are no special rules for greece except for the special rules that affect greece. Michelle will explain that. I want to deal with this issue. Was it a surprise . Well, we might look at where important markets were positioned ahead of it. Currency markets suggest it was. Theres the euro hitting an 1 year low, tyler, go back to 2003 when i had, like 20 pounds less or whatever you want to talk about it. You and me both baby. The bund on a twoday chart here, lost seven basis points. You did not think rates could go lower. Guess what . They can. As they go to 0. 045, lost 7 points right now. Now, at his press conference this morning mario draghi explained the Overall Economic goals of the program. Taken together these factors should strengthen demand increase capacity utilization, and support money and credit growth thereby contribute to a return of inflation rates to us at 2 . But theres skepticism whether it works. Interest rates are low and the effect on the real economy is muted if banks did not lend the money out. Tyler, the question is how much new money there is. The 60 billion euro includes the sovereign bonds which is new, but also the other programs that were already announced. Stick around steve. Were going to go over now to athens where Michelle Carusocabrera is live with the latest on greeces election the reaction to the ecb, and the answer to steves question about the no special rules for greece other than the special rules for greece. Michelle . Reporter well, look at the way the program is designed tyler, it was announced by the ecb, theres enough characteristics to think it was designed purposely not to buy greek bonds. First of all, the duration of bonds are going to buy the vast majority that you couldnt buy from greece do not fit in that duration. They are much longer term. They do not qualify. Additionally, they talked about greece already being at its quota because the ecb already owes a lot of greek bonds, 27 billion euros worth. Remember back to 2010, the prices were bringing down, and tried to be in the market that did not work. They held bonds for so long some of them are coming due this year in july and august. 6 billion euros worth that the greek government is supposed to pay back. Thats how long they held them. Plus, theres quality issues too. Greece is not in compliance with the bailout program. Put it all together theres no way well buy greek bonds under this program or if they start to buy them in july. Why would they at this point . Looks like the next Prime Minister of greece is likely to be the radical leftist leader making a speech right now in athens to a rally of thousands and thousands of people. He does not want to be in compliance with the program. The party talked positively about what the ecb did today. I dont know if nay are trying to extend an olive branch but so far he says he does not want to be in compliance with the program, but renegotiate the program, and he wants the ecb to actually ease the terms on the previous loans that were already given to them. Thats incredibly controversial if hes Prime Minister. Theres a show down. The current Prime Minister is staying, hey, you need to elect me so that way we can stay in the program and eventually theyll buy our bonds. He has not actually been able to keep greece in compliance with the program either for political reasons. So definitely seeing an effect in the ecb as a result of the elections in greece. Back to you. Michelle thank you very much. Whats going on there behind you . Missing a good party, or is this the election rally . Its a party all right, the communist party. Greece is such a leftist country, there are thousands of communists here holding a rally beneath us singing sovietera songs, not a joke. Steve, turning to you, i want to ask you another question. Based on the experience of the United States with quantitative easing, bond buying, injecting liquidity into the market what would you say the biggest impact of that has been . Its a different way of asking has it worked . Has it in fact kept Inflation Higher than it otherwise would be . Has its effect been to raise asset prices or what . I think its all part of it. I am i always go back to what ben bernanke said. Quantitative easing works in practice theory, but not in practice. The Federal Reserve went to an openended Quantitative Easing Program that we had lower unemployment, we had inflation came down a bit during that period, but maybe not as much as some of the other countries that were out there as well and growth also accelerated during that period. How it worked . The channels, unclear perhaps through additional lending. We had something affirming in lending that was out there. Maybe through an expectations route, tyler, in that when the central bank comes to order and says we will not allow disinflation or what i hear you say is we dont know how it worked. Not sure. We can point to numbers that moved in the right direction. Right. Remember what happened to European Central bank their Balance Sheet fell with declining numbers and near recessionary Growth Numbers in that time. Theres two examples out there, and draghi took a page from bernanke and yellen saying it was open ended. Thats monetary circles how it works open ended. I just dropped my glasses, steve, ill get them later. Its all right. Steve, thank you very much. Sue, down to you. Pick up those glasses, ty. Which countries might benefit most from the ecb move and lets look at the management, miller head of north america at bering asset management. Nice to have you here. John, first of all, do you think the program is big enough . Do you think it will work . If so what countries do you think will benefit the most . Well its already working a great deal for europe. Its been working for the past month, the past almost quarter wherebe whereby the euro is weakening on anticipation of the qe and today its working more. So its going to help many countries in europe. I think germany will be one of the biggest beneficiaries because of the weaker euro helping their exports tremendously. Its, obviously, going to help the peripheral as well. Theres a true commitment now to more integration of europe and thats going to hopefully help convince voters in the countries that its a project that they should stay involved with and that they should not vote for radical parties who want to get out of the european union. All right. Its also very good for japan. I can talk about that in a later moment. Yes, absolutely. Theres more information on japan on our website which ill direct viewers to in just a moment. Theres been a lot of talk this move is dis will take care of the deflation fears out there. How so . Could you explain how that will work . Yes. So the idea is that as you expand the monetary base, theres more money in the system, and the more money in the system generates higher inflation through time. Obviously, the more lending you get, the more you expand your economy, the more you stabilize prices, notwithstanding oil prices but greater demand for oil would stabilize the oil price. Thats the aim of the central bank. The ecb has just the mandate to control inflation. They are saying Monetary Policy will do that. We have to be cautious about taking sort of one day of euphoria, extending that into saying somehow Monetary Policy can cure the slow growth ills that plague europe. They cant. You also think that sweden will be a beneficiary, and a lot of people dont think of sweden as not being part of the ec but generally doesnt have some of the same issues. Why will sweden benefit specifically . They export a lot globely. It looks like germany in terms of the industrial composition and market composition. Any relief you have in the euro extends into the swedish market and i think it creates a currency led growth that john was talking about. All right. Speaking of john john i know youre going to talk to us more about japan. Thats going to be online. John hays thank you very much. Indeed for more on john an hays global bike spicks, go to powerlunch. Cnbc. Com with more. Dom . Watching shares of the network, stocks climb after they upgraded the stock from a buy from a prior neutral and up to 80 bucks a share, citing the companys strong lineup of shows in 2015 and as a result shires up 3 in todays trade. Back to you. Thank you very much. Gridlock in the busiest ports. Jane wells is in los angeles. Hi, jane. Reporter hey tyler, a great year for the ports of l. A. And long beach because of volume but contract talks, congestion here is reaching epic proportion proportions proportions. Why not use this wide open lot . Its complicated. What this means to earnings reports coming up. Well be right back. The long time speaker of the new York State Assembly arrested today charged with federal corruption. The federal government says he used his office to get millions of bribes over the years, and then covered that all up. Thats u. S. Attorney making the announcement right now. Lets go to dom chu for a market flash. Watching avon. Youll see a spike on the screen. The stock is doing this. Street account references a report attributed to deal reporter that the company was in talks with private equity perm tpg. As a result, the shares up 15. 5 . Again, not confirmed here but reports citing deal reporter saying that private equity firm tpg, tyler, may have been in talks with Avon Products leading to the spike. Over to you. Two pieces of dramatic video from ukraine in the news room. A bus was hit by a shell in the rebel controlled eastern part of the country. Seven people killed. The ukraine army is blamed for this. This is video of ukraines main airport in the eastern part of the country. It has been the scene of terrible fighting and shelling over the past several weeks. You see the airport is pretty much gone. Prorussian rebels hold the airport. The ukrainians say they are still in charge. Theres not much left either way. The rsx is the main russian etf, and it is down about 41 over the past 12 months but up big today at 4. 5 roughly at this hour. Sue . Airline stocks flying high. Southwest and alaska topping earnings estimates, United Continental with mixed results but shares hitting a 5246 week high. Everythings in the green. Same president transports railroad, yun your pacific, and jp hunt higher after beating the street but verizon is going the other direction edging lower, earnings in line with expectations, but the stock under performing since middecember compared with the rest of the dow30 peers. Back to you. Port problems persist out west finger pointing who is to blame . Jane wells is live in los angeles. Jane . Reporter tyler, expect to see the word port show up in earnings reports seeing more than a dozen ships parked offshore waiting to get cargo here. Look at the wide open lot. The port said hey, use this. Operators are not taking them up on it. They say thats not the point. Look at this video. Congestion here is already huge. There are containers stacked up all over the nations largest port container complex. The point is to get cargo out of here completely. It reached epic proportions. How come . Well, look at the gopro video up on this crane. Heres the deal. Management says dock workers refuse to provide enough crews, and dock workers say management is refuseing to ask for the crews. Someone is lying. They both cannot be right. Whats happening is with respect to yard crane operators, were getting less than half of what we need to operate the facilities today. Those that are working are working at a less than normal operative pace. I can tell you as a matter of fact that the iow stands ready to work every vessel thats called into the port to man every crane against those vessels and to unload as much cargo as we can off the ships in a moments notice. Reporter congestion is so bad that the Pacific Maritime association, the pma, or management stopped unloading cargo at night. Now, two internal operators did it anyhow working night, and they say the pm afined the two firms 50,000 each and suspended them from the pma. The pma says no comment. Its such a mess that spot rates to take your cargo from asia to east coast via all water jumped 5 based on demand. Back to you. Wow, jane thank you so much. Appreciate it. All right. Were going to talk about trades you can put in now following europes trillion euro stimulus plan. Stay with us to see how you can play with etfs. As we head out, the major stock losers this hour with big percentage losses on lands end and travel zoo. , and power lunch is back in two. Hi. Pete and jon najarian here in new york city outside of the nasdaq, where we bring you live daily market updates. And today, we have a very special free gift for you. So many viewers email us wanting to know our secrets on how we trade options. So we put our secrets into a new book. And if youre one of the first 250 people to call in right now and just cover shipping and handling well send you a copy for free. 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