Group could go from here. And can you believe it . Check out oil and gold over the past month. Gold up 5 , oil up 12 . Is the commodities crush finally coming to an end . Well look at that. But we start with the stock market. Earnings season front and center for investors. The big banks kicking it all off. Dominic chu is here with what investors need to know ahead of next week. We have a big week, 33 s p 500 companies or thereabouts will report next week. Lets take a look at the expectations because theyre not very good. Overall look at the s p 500 yeartodate. Down 2. 5 well call it. 2. 5 , and then over the course of this time we want to make sure earnings could be a catalyst. On average according to thomson reuters, if all analyst estimates come to fruition we could see an earnings decline of around 4. 5 over the same quarter last year. The best performers in terms of Earnings Growth anticipated to be telecom stocks. Theyre a small sector, nonetheless 11 gain. Consumer discretionary, retail side of things, also an 11 gains. As for the two that will hold things back, materials. A 17 forecasted decline in earnings, and then Energy Stocks, of course, we know the story down 64 . These are the sectors to keep an eye on. As for which stocks are going to be huge, take a look at the calendar because on tuesday dow components like johnson johnson, jpmorgan chase, intel. Wednesday, a lot of big financials, bank of america, blackrock, citi and goldman on thursday. Ge on friday. A lot of dow components, 33 s p 500 members, its going to be a busy week and a lot of guys are expecting at least a little bit of movement around the stocks around earnings. You bet. It is going to be a busy week, and we will be all over it. A monster week this week for oil. West texas crude and brent up about 10 this week alone. Prices now climbing to the highest levels since july, close to the best weekly gain since 2009, but will oil keep on going . Jackie deangelis speaking with traders at the nymex. What are you finding . That really is the question. Where do we go from here . You take out the crystal ball and let me know what you think. On the bullish side, russia, syria, iran, its a messy situation in the middle east. It could increase in terms of the tension over there. Having said that, saudi arabia is on the other side of this. Are they preparing a counter offensive here . Thats a question to consider. And can saudi arabia talk to russia about oil if theyre at odds over the issue in syria . Having said that, the sentiment on the floor today is not to be short oil going into the weekend. The bearish case here, Goldman Sachs rei was rating it thinks oil will stay lower longer and we are seeing production decline this is the United States but theyre slow, theyre painfully slow. Having said that, u. S. Inventories expected to build over the next few weeks. This is a seasonal pattern we see, and refinery run rates are down. Refineries are using less crude to make product right now. So with that and Global Growth concerns on the table as well, this could go either way. Back to you. All right, jackie. Thank you very much. Stocks, the three major averages now just a little negative as you see right there. Theres the s p off about 1 point. If the dow closes higher it will be up for a sixth straight session, the longest winning streak of the year. Lets get to trading action. Mary thompson is here on the floor. Its an interesting session. We have moderate volume, big week. We have a mixed picture in large part because energy which has been the Top Performing sector this week is lagging, and it was higher earlier in the session and then turned lower. Lets look at a chart of the s p 500 because as tyler said, it is lower now. It hit resistance at 2020. There we go. Theres the s p. At 2020 earlier in the session, and since then it has been lower. Technical resistance there, a rejection and the s p has turned lower. Energy, of course, as i mentioned, a laggard today. Industrials, the second best performing sector on an up week continue to move higher in large part because of the strength we are seeing in airlines today. Airlines getting a boost from the very positive forecast that was issued by United Airlines despite the continued gains in oil with oil above 50 a peril. Take a look at the airlines. They are all higher. Delta the worst performer up 2. 5 . All of this is translating into further gains for the dow transportation average which is having its best week since 2012. A lot of indexes having very good weeks. And holding the gains. Dominic chu, news alert. Baker hughes north american rig counts out. In terms of u. S. Oil rigs, with he have that count now down nine to 605 rigs. Again, u. S. Oil rigs down nine this week to 605. Total u. S. Rigs down 14 to 795. As for the same time last year, the u. S. Rig count is now down 1,135 rigs from the same time last year. Oil rigs are down 1,004. Of that 1,0004 lower for oil rigs than last year and canadian oil rigs up one to 180 total. Another decline, this time down nine for u. S. Oil rigs to 605 total. Sara, back over to you. Wti holding on to its gains. Thank you, dom. To the dysfunction in washington, d. C. The race to assume the third most powerful position in the country, yes, i guess it is, thrown into disarray after House Majority leader Kevin Mccarthy dropped out. So where do we stand on this question right now . Chief washington correspondent john harwood joins us with the latest. We stand in the same place as yesterday. The race will go on for a while. Republicans got together this morning. They do not have a consensus candidate yet. Paul ryan is the one that most members are leaning on trying to get into this race. They think he can get the 218 votes he needs to be elected House Speaker on the floor. He continues to resist. And the underlying problem isnt the identity of the individual who is the speaker, its being willing and getting the resistant bloc of conservatives in the house to be willing to compromise and do the things that a governing party has to do to govern. Charlie dent, a moderate from pennsylvania, made that point this morning. The big are chger challenge do we change the underlying political dynamic that got us in this position in the first place. No matter who we put in the chair has to figure out a way to change the political dynamic. Thats the harder question. Anyone who is thinking about becoming the next speaker understands that instinctively. The example is paul ryan should he take over the speakership is going to be faced with the obligation given the fact we have a democratic president , we have significant number of democrats in the senate who can require compromise and concessions. Paul ryan made a deal with patty murray on the budget a couple years ago. Conservatives didnt like that deal. They still like paul ryan, but they have to get used to more deals like that, and thats what charlie dent was referring to, guys. Talk to me a little bit about the possibility. It does sound as though paul ryan right now is the person who could probably attract more than 218 votes. He would be in a very strong position, would he not, to say to both factions within the republican caucus, if you want me to do this, you follow me, its my way or the highway with you guys. He has some negotiating power, doesnt he . Well, he does. And if he can do that, that would be a huge service to the republican party, but the faction were talking about has not yet shown the discipline, the maturity to play with others and to figure out how to govern, so paul ryans ability to even extract that concession would be severely tested. As i said, if he can do it, its more than john boehner could do, its more than Kevin Mccarthy could have done. John, thank you very much. Cnbc will host the next republican president ial debate. It is in colorado on october 28th, the same day as the next fed meeting. Much mo talk about, your money, your vote. The emerging markets slow down and the anemic recovery a big focus for those gathering in lima, peru for the Imf World Bank annual meeting. Geoff cutmore is live in lima for us. Geoff . Reporter i think the challenge at this meeting is for the markets to work their way through the series of down beat comments were getting on the economy. The latest to add to these, the german finance minister saying that the emerging market risk potentially could drive German Growth rates lower. They think theyll get 1. 8 gdp growth this year, but hes acknowledging that china and other emerging markets could potentially drive that rate of growth into a slower phase here. Before that we had jack lew geoff, were going to have to cut you off because we have some breaking news here. Fed headline. Steve liesman on the floor with details from chicago fed president charlie evans. Speaking in milwaukee, wisconsin. Charlie evans says it will be appropriate for the funds rate to be below 1 at the end of 2016. Doesnt say exactly when he would want the fed to hike rates but he favors a liftoff, he says, later than his colleagues and he wants more confidence that inflation will rise before hiking and the aren is because hes concerned about china, the stronger dollar and the commodity downdraft and he thinks the inflation headwinds wont ease until 2016. As you know, i got to talk earlier today with bill dudley, and the question people want to know is what is it going to take to hike rates and the answer is actually pretty simple. What its going to take, is for the committee Consensus Forecast to come true. What is the forecast . The job market will improve and inflation will stop falling. Under those circumstances, says bill dudley, in our exclusive interview, he would be in the camp of those who would hike rates. Based on my forecast, yes, i am, but its a forecast and were going get a lot of data between now and december, so what its not a commitment. So if i say i think its likely this year it doesnt mean im committing to doing it this year, its based on my expectation of how the economy is likely to evolve. Theres a risk the economy involv evolves in a way i dont expect. Dudleys big concern, china and emerging market economies dragging down u. S. Inflation. Less concern though about the affect on u. S. Growth. He was willing to look past the recent weakness in the job market. An interesting bit of sound from him here. It was definitely weaker, but at the same time if you get 150,000 jobs a month thats sufficient to push the Unemployment Rate down over time. Its important not to overweight one Payroll Employment report. Last bit is he added the current market volatility around fed policy pretty much to be expected given how tied policy is to the data. On the possibility of a government shut down, he said, look, i think cooler heads are going to prevail but its crazy to think about not paying the governments debts. When he said there will be a lot of data between now and december, i heard that as saying definitively october is off the table. Even though he would not say specifically were you like a literature mageer . We try to take it apart. He was definitely less high on october, but, look, there are the two jobs reports and i would think that two jobs reports could really wipe out one weak one which is what we had. Steve, thank you very much. Steve liesman. Commodities crush, is it finally coming to an end . Plus, a big week for stocks and a number of sectors are on the move. Dominic chu is on that story for us. Tyler this, sector here, the mystery chart, is the best performing sector in the s p yeartodate. Its the fourth biggest sector in the s p. Well have that and more coming up after the break so keep it right here on power lunch. At ally bank no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like playing the boss equals the boss wins. Wow i love working in the salinas area becauseriselda zendejas. I always wanted to do something where i could help people around me. So being a construction supervisor for pg e gives me the opportunity to give a little bit back to my community. I have three boys. Theyre what keep me going every day. Our friends, families live in the area. And it is important for all of us that we keep our community safe. Together, were building a better california. Welcome back to power lunch. Walmart is naming bret bigs the companys new cfo after the former cfo announced he would retire. That stock is up 3 this week. Pacific crest beginning coverage on three big media stocks. 21st century fox being initiated with an overrate weighting while cbs and viacom initiated sector come or hold. Theres currently no licensed vaccine or cure for ebola. That stock is down 9 . Before the break we showed you our mystery chart, a sector up 7 despite the volatility over the last three months and that sector is Consumer Discretionary. Which stocks are taking that group higher and can the run continue into the end of the year in dominic chu takes a look. Seasonably strong, thats what a lot of people say about the stock market, but certainly for a lot of retail names investors are focusing because its the Holiday Season coming up. If you look at the s p 500 versus the Consumer Discretionary sector overall, you can see the orange line, Consumer Discretionary, if you look at the winners, theyre not just retail. Names like netflix, up 136 . People buy their online dreaming products. Amazon. Com, up 74 and under armour making Athletic Apparel we all buy, up 50 here. As for the stocks that have been dragging things down, you have wynn resorts down 50 . We know about the china macao angle there. And michael kors on the fashion side down. Very much about those individual stocks. Coming up in the 2 00 p. M. Hour well have another mystery chart. This is the second best performing sector in 2015 so stay tuned. Thats still ahead. Back over to you. Good tease, dominic chu. Well stick with this Consumer Discretionary theme. How should you play the sector in Andrew Berkeley is a managing director with oppenheimer. I understand you like Consumer Discretionary but the point from what dom showed us is not all Consumer Discretionary is created equally. Look at gap september numbers disappointed. Where are you seeing opportunity in this group. Completely agree. Its a very differentiated sector from autos, housing, retailers in there, but the general driver of the Sector Performance all year is underlying consumption and the u. S. Consumer is benefiting really from three big macro trends, lower Commodity Energy prices, a stronger dollar, which is really not hurting them, most sales for consumer are more domestic, and the seasonally strong q4 will be a good opportunity. We brought a couple ideas from retailing, restaurants, and also one from the more Specialty Retail as well. Can you name some names for us . Sure. We maintain a list here at oppenheimer we call triple play. The idea is outperform rated by our fundamental analysts. Amazon, which has been a leader in that group, would fit that profile very well. Turned into more of an earnings story, earnings revision story this year as they have been delivering. Pure play on ecommerce and cloud storage. So wed stick with that one. In the restaurant space we like chipotle. Very tied to employment growth, so stronger employment is good for restaurant stocks. And the third one we have is you will thaulta. A good pure play on growth and a specialty niche play. I guess the pushback on the whole idea, andrew, is that job growth is slowing. We saw that in the last two months of the employment data, especially that revision downward for august, and wage growth has not really picked up in any meaningful way. So why does this group continue to be a standout for you . Also the cheaper gas savings, we havent seen them get spent like we were expecting either. Its a typically an early cycle play but the difference between this cycle and most business cycles, its been an elongated cycle. The longer the fed keeps rates low, it will keep the retailers and consumers doing well. The other point is on a relative basis compared so some of the internationally exposed companies that have a lot of dollar exposure, these are good relative plays as well. If you look at where the consumers basket is, twothirds of spend something in essentials, housing, autos. Gas is offset by things like restaurants, movies, shortterm items. On the plus side we did see good earnings from pepsi and nike so far. Its going to be the earnings leader in q3 up about 10 . Andrew burkly, thank you for joining us from oppenheimer. Thanks very much. Check out gold and oil over the past month. Theyve been rallying, old up 5 , oil up 12 . Is the commodities crush finally coming to an end . Morgan brennan taking a look. Morgan . Well, that is the big question and it is certainly fueling quite the debate. Were going to drill down into the latest data on the commodity complex when power lunch returns. Stay tuned. Why should over two hundred years of citi history matter to you . Well, because it tells us something powerful about progress that whether times are good or bad, people and their ideas will continue to move the world forward. As long as they have someone to believe in them. Citi financed the transatlantic cable that connected continents. And the panama canal, that made our world a smaller place. We backed the Marshall Plan that helped europe regain its strength. And pioneered the atm, for cash, anytime. For over two centuries weve supported dreams like these, and the people and companies behind them. So why should that matter to you . Because, today, we are still helping progress makers turn their ideas into reality. And the next great idea could be yours. Welcome back to power lunch. Im tyler mathisen. You know, commodities have been crushed this year. Its been an ongoing story but some have been rallying lately. Gold and oil both coming back over the past month, so is the commodities crushing crush coming to an end . Commodities have been getting crushed but weve see a rally this were. Glencore will cut a third of its zinc production. They are the Worlds Largest zinc miner. Zinc jumped 10 on the