Been chipping away at flash flooding jobs. Now automation robots may be coming to the csuite. I thought some of our ceos were robots, i dont know. You better be hoping theyre not watching. Its a tale of two economies right now here in the United States. The Consumer Holding up but not so much on the industrial side. Morgan brennan is taking a closer look at the socalled industrial recession and what that could mean for the overall economy. Morgan . Thats right. So as commodities continue to collapse, Global Growth weaken, and the dollar strengthen, energy, mining, and manufacturing all struggling. We have seen Companies Slash cap ex, jobs, and financial outlooks and now a number of experts ever warning a socalled industrial recession is taking root, including u. S. Steel ceo mario lo longhi just yesterday. Its happening, its not imminent. For us its more than a reseths. Steel has been hit especially hard. What executives call a decoupling from the economy. But there are several key economic metrics that are flashing warning signs. According to the federal reserve, Industrial Production declined the past two readings and 7 of the past 9 and the ism fell to 50. 1 in october. The lowest reading in 2 1 2 years and were right on the cusp of a potential contraction. Joe lavorgna says whats unclear is how much of the weakness is inventories or the rapidly depreciating dollar. The question now, if the industrial recession is setting in, could this affect the broader u. S. Economy . Well, lavorgna and others say not at this point since manufacturing stim still a relatively small part of the economy but that could change if consumers pull back on spending and that makes data like todays disappointing retail sales number that much more important to watch. Thank you for setting the whole scenario up. So the question here is are we in danger of falling into an industrial recession and possibly a broader economic recession . Lets bring in cnbc contributors ron insana and michael farr. Michael, what do you think . Maybe. I dont think so ultimately, but the dollar has been very strong and i think thats the real story behind the story is the strength of the dollar. Weve seen weakness abroad. Weve had weak Commodity Prices. These are all weighing on the manufacturing sector, weak capital investment. We havent seen a lot of it, and cheap labor markets have continued to keep that down. But the strength in the dollar could also begin to import a little bit of deflation as were able to buy cheaper and cheaper goods and services. So its not strong. I dont think were there yet, but theres been a divergence between the manufacturing and the nonmanufacturing side. Right. So that divergence is really rare. Its going to come together one way or the other. So we either see the manufacturing tick up or nonmanufacturing tick down. With the stronger dollar, im keeping a closer eye on the nonmanufacturing probably giving a bit away. Thats a maybe. Its not a no, ron. What do you think . I think i may be a little more worried than michael in so far as theres a negative feedback loop developing. Chinas manufacturing is weak, russia is in recession, japan is in recession, eurozone data was weak. As the dollar strengthens, it weakens profits for companies that do business overseas so i worry theres still more than a whiff of deflation globally and that the fed may very well mistime this rate hike and that could cause in how much choice do they have . They keep pushing it and miss the boat completely . Japan has been doing it for 25 years. Theyve made a series of policy mistakes and theyre back in recession, still suffering from deflation. So, you know, whether people want to move off zero or not, there is a set of economic realities out there that suggests maybe, look, your credibility is less important than doing the right thing at this juncture. I dont know, ron. Hang on because the credibility i think is all important, particularly when it comes to the fed. And when youve got over 90 of the economists now listening to even dovish fed governors suggest that theyre going to do it in december, i dont see how they cant do it in december. Theyve got to hang onto their credibility here. This stronger dollar is a headwind and to rons point, they probably based on data should not increase rates here but i think again theyve painted themselves in a corner. Do like the reserve bank of new zealand. I talked to an economist who said thats their scenario. Later on this year theyll have to start cutting again. If whats going on in the world continues to go on, well end up with negative Interest Rates next year and i think thats my base case is they unwind and then ultimately we end up with negative rates because deflation has become too powerful a force in the Global Economy and the recessions we see overseas will invariably have a feedback loop and its unfortunate because manufacturing was becoming one of the stronger parts for us which was good and now its becoming one of the weaker parts. Were already seeing it too. When you look at the dollar yearoveryear and look at the trade deficit and the trade gap, our work shows its probably trimmed yearoveryear about a half a point off of gdp growth already. That strong dollar if you listen to kudlow is a really good thing but theres a downside to it, too. Theres always a downside. Its a doubleedged sword. Michael, can i get your thoughts on ge versus sink ronnie . Ge, of the two, theres a reason thats spinning off synchrony now. The credit cycle has troughed. I dont think they have many losses. That unsecured Consumer Credit business is not one i want to be in and certainly not when a credit cycle changes. So id prefer the ge piece. Im probably not ready to buy it quite yet but i like anything with a 3 dividend. If you were being asked to tender if youre already a ge owner, the thing you might want to do is split and go 50 50. Take half your position and go into synchrony but retain a core position in general electric. They are paying 107 per so youre getting a bit of a premium up front. Id keep my ge. Youre on the same page with that one. I like to end on a sort of agreement note like that. 50 agreement. Thank you very much. Have a great weekend. I set my watch for this every week. Brian sullivan, news alert. Rig count. Yeah, and something has happened that has not happened in 11 weeks. Rig counts went up, not down. Not a lot. According to Baker Hughes Rig counts increased by two last week. Were still down over 1,000 from this time last year, but this 11, 12week slide in the number of rigs every week is officially over. We are up two. We keep talking about the need to keep producing oil and guess what . I know jackie d. Is coming up next, but oil falling not a lot but falling on the news, 40. 36 is the level to watch. Rig counts up for the first time in 11 weeks. Back to you. Brian, thank you very much. And lets go down to Jackie Deangelis at the nymex. Hi, tyler. Prices today nearing a 3 decline, another week where we might see nearly a 10 drop in oil. The intraday low 40. 36, so getting very close to that psychological 40 level. Now, we had the iea monthly report out saying there is a world oil glut. 3 billion barrels in storage. This is very significant, and also saying that it doesnt expect to see demand tick up. Actually it may tick down in the next year. These are not the dynamics that are going to Keep Oil Prices supported at this point. So as brian mentioned, its been another rough day for crude. Thank you very much. Wild trading day for equities. Stocks hitting their lows for the month, but we are well of d the session lows. Bob pisani is on the New York Stock Exchange floor. Hi, bob. Hello, old friend. Were getting smacked around by a number of market forces. Number of new lows has been expanding. Weve not had a very good week. Here is retailers sitting at new lows right now. A whole bunch of them at new lows, nordstrom, kohls, macys gap, tiffany, dollar general. I want to concentrate on jcpenney because they had a report generally better than people had expected yet the stock is getting clobbered down 13 . The problem is the street is just abandoning the old School Retailers in general. The good news on macys, a smaller loss thn expected and theyre regaining market share. It was a good report but it doesnt matter. The bad news is they havent had profits since 2011 and the street isnt clear whether theyre going to have profits in the future. And theyve got pressure from amazon and all of the old school fast retailers that are out there, forever 21, for example. Thats the story with the retailers. Elsewhere big tech is having problems, cisco has disappoi disappointed. Its weighing on the old school. Apple has had a bad week in general, down 6 . And down 2 today. Thats a problem. Strong dollar middle of the day weighing on commodities. You heard tyler talking about that. Energy stocks are off of their lows today but still on the downside. Still a pretty bad week overall. How does the market look . S p, well, were down 3 for the week to date and were back in negative territory for the year. The only thing up this week, tyler, utilities. Bond yields coming down, the market seems to be saying less likely fed hike out there. Notice the bank stocks, tyler, kre, they have been down this week, a sign they dont believe Interest Rates may be going up anytime soon. Back to you. A topsyturvy world we live in. Thank you very much, bob. To rueurope now, could this eurozone member be the next greece . Seema mody, which one are we talking about . Its a political crisis in portugal that could get ugly fast and essentially turn into the next greece. A new socialist Party Campaigning for reduced austerity earlier this week ousted the center right government. The man behind the movement antonio costa, a former may lor of lisbon, has support from the radical left and the hardline communists likely to be portugals next prime minister. The question is will he come in and reverse the countrys economic recovery because, remember, portugal has been seen as one of the more successful stories in europe thanks to a bailout and a reform package that includes tough austerity. Rbs says this Political Uncertainty will likely weigh on portugals funding costs Going Forward. In fact, were already seeing widening yield spreads between portuguese and german sovereign debt, the highest level since july. Credit Rating Agency dbrs which maintained its Credit Rating at bbb low today says if he derails the Fiscal Program it may downgrade the country to below investment grade. That could result the ecb kicking out portugal from the program. Another selloff on the street to tell you about. The major averages down more than 3 this week as bob just mentioned. S p negative for the year. Europe, china, the fed, all those worries coalescing. Are the same issues that drove the selloff in august going to come to play again . Well tackle that one. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Some neighbors are Energy Saving superstars. How do you become a superstar . With pg es free Online Home Energy checkup. In just under 5 minutes you can see how you use energy and get quick and easy tips on how to keep your monthly bill down and your Energy Savings up. Dont let your neighbor enjoy all the savings. Take the Free Home Energy checkup. Honey, we need a new refrigerator. Visit pge. Com checkup and get started today. And welcome back to power lunch, folks. Im tyler mathisen. Were glad youre with us. Fit bit getting couch potatoes. The wearable fitness make irpricing a second offer at 29 a share and that stock is down now 13 on the day. Yelp going the other way. The Consumer Review website upgraded to outperform from sector perform at rbc, up 4 . Game stop down more than 10 . Pacific crest downgrading that video Game Retailer to sector weight from outperform. To dominic chu we go for a quick market flash. Shares of Applied Materials you can see are up by about 4 to 5 near the highs of the day. The maker of machines that are used to make computer chips matched profit estimates with suggested Fourth Quarter numbers. Sales came in line with estimates. Also provided a solid First Quarter earnings outlook for 2016. Shares you can see up about 5 , mandy. Back over to you. Thank you very much. Rising concerns about you name it you got it, chinese growth, the commodity crush, et cetera, et cetera, seem to be keeping investors wary of the markets and theyre starting to be thinking about whether or not we could go back to the selloff in august. Lets bring in jim iuorio and jef kilburg. Do you think we could see a retest of the august lows . I dont believe we will. We made a 13 run up from the late september lows to the near highs we put in a week or so ago. That was long way to move. In that time the market faced its fears, a fed tightening. We saw the blockbuster number last friday. It didnt have a catalyst to take it to new highs. This is an interesting week in that we have draghi being assuring us hes still wildly dovish and somewhat of a crummy retail sales number. I still think its coming and i think thats what worries the market a little bit, not as terrified as it was in august. Its getting used to the idea but i think some negativity but i think 2,000 is my low on this move. Maybe not the august lows in the stock market, jim, but real quick, oil, 39 is only a stones throw away. I think were too close to this psychological 40 level not to go through it again. I think 39. 22 was the futures low two months ago. I think well hit that. I think to push below that, we need a catalyst and there are things that could happen. The saudis could jaw bone it and want it higher again. The fed could push it higher. Theres a lot of shorts in the market, too. I dont think much lower than 39. Jeff, agree or disagree with what jim has said . Well, i think jimmy brings up a great point. Look at this, were only 3 off that low in crude oil, 39. 22 and we put that low in august 24th. Were 10 higher in the equity market. 200 handles higher in the s p 500. So i think sentiment is very different and its more representative in the vix. The vix was trading at 53, mandy, on that august 24th. Its 63 lower at 19. 5. I think jimmy is right. Well see a tug of war as we understand all the rhetoric coming out of the fed as well as the ecb. I dont see us retesting the lows of august anytime soon. Thank you for joining us. Enjoy your weekend. You, too. Its new Retirement Plan that has steerozero risk and it is b by the government but is it a good way to save for your retirement . As we head out lets look at the most widely held stocks. Apple down by 2 . Alphabet and microsoft also down. Well be right back. When a moment turns romantic why pause to take a pill . Or stop to find a bathroom . 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Sharon epperson here with that debate. Sharon . Wlg, tyler, joining me right now is jeff levine and scott hanson. He wrote about myra on the Financial Adviser hub on cnbc. Com. I want to start with you, jeff, to talk a little bit about myra, the my retirement account. You say its not perfect but it is a solid option for a lot of savers. Why do you say that . The first thing you should be doing as saver is establishing an emergency reserve. The myra has no investment risk whatsoever. It may not earn a lot, but its going to earn more than what youre getting in the bank and the bottom line is you wont lose money. It also has a very low cost. In fact, no cost whatsoever to the person who is starting it. So when were looking at someone with only a small amount to contribute to start, this is a great way to do it. So, scott, you can start a myra with as little as 2. You dont have a risk of losing money because it invests only in one thing, in a government security, a u. S. Treasury security that they say will never lose value. Right now its yielding about 2 . You say though the whole idea of myra is a misguided, bureaucratic mess. You wrote about this on cnbc. Com. Scott, why do you say that . Here is my frustration. There are so many Retirement Plans out there today. The 401 k , the 403b, the roth, i can go on and on. Yet this is one more Retirement Plan. Theres a whole industry out there just to help people like me understand the differences in Retirement Plans so i can explain them to clients. One more Retirement Plan, i dont know how this is going to make it any easier for folks to save. Jeff has a great organization. I send my advisers out to his twoday boot camp to learn about two days to learn about the he nuances of Retirement Plans. Here is the nuance, scott. This is for people who dont save right now. The idea is to get people who dont have a lot of money to save who are very afraid that if they put any money