You look at the gains here, the dow is up almost 7 since february 11th. The s p 500 up more than 8 in that same time frame and the nasdaq is up 10. 5 since february 11th. Do you sell into the rally . David joins us. You have a bullish tendency, but i think you believe that the upside is limited here. Yeah, absolutely limited. We talked about it last night in the show. Essentially this is a fearbased trade. People underpositioned on the long side that are fearing a lot of the meetings coming up over the next several weebks. A meeting in china kicks off today. Most importantly the ecb given draghis comments about potential additional stimulus, so i look at it and say under positioned, getting long, fear of it running away from them, but most importantly, there is a big fear, big fear about being short. So all these, you know, stocks and sectors that have underperformed have been completely negative, biased on sentiment trades, youre seeing that risk come off and seeing a tremendous amount of Short Covering here. And a lot of traders are pointing to the 20, 20, 25 level, the moving average on the s p 500. David mentioned an unwillingness to be short. There is an unwillingness to be long. We have the defensive trades going strong. Gold having its strongest weekly inflows in 16 weeks. Gold has been a monster trade. It is in a bull market. So obviously what were seeing markets go higher, were see league lu reluctance to give up the area as well. As long as central bankers are smoking in the diynamite shed, you have to sell these rallies. These are wonderful opportunities to take down risk, sell these rallies, and save that drive dry powder for capitulation and opportunities like we had last month. Larry, michelle here. What is the credit market saying . We often look to the credit markets for any guidance as to whether or not you believe the rally in equities. High yield is catching up, so have Investment Grade bonds. But the problem is, high yield itself is about 190 basis points away from the tights. And ig is 35 to 40 away from the tights. What that means is equities are 4. 5 away from the all time highs. And high yield bonds and Investment Grade bonds are nowhere near the best levels. And then scott wapner was talking about the ten year. The ten year at 190, in a real risk on, real risk on that tenyear will be up at 240, 235. The credit market is not suggesting as much confidence. Not getting confirmation at all. If were targeting 20, 20, or 2025 in the s p 500, what would you be in . First of all, i think again we fade this rally. Youre going to see it probably continue to grind higher, it will exist until the tens when the ecb meeting begins. I think you fade a beginning next monday, lets say tuesday, wednesday. I would walk away from equities now. I would look at medium term corporate bonds, 4. 75 yield, thats the best place to be in the near term, best bang for your buck. I think we come back a little bit. And you step back on the long side of the Higher Quality names youve been keeping your eye on, when they come back, you step in and buy them. Youre a little farther out on the risk spectrum. You recommend it in your letter today to buy the european financials etf. Why . Well, thatly was a buy from e of weeks ago. I would sell the financials here. The bar is very, very high. U. S. Financials. U. S. And europe. Both europe. Youve got the bar is very high from mr. Draghi. The Market Expectations from two inches on february 11th, right now today, to 10 feet high in terms of what draghi is expected to do. But the u. S. Financials, acg analytics put out a nice report, if donald trump moves to the center, to the center on the financials in too big to fail, which we think there say decent probability he might, thats going to really shake up the u. S. Financials and it is a black swan not many people are talking about. Thank you. David seeburg and larry mcdonald. News alert, guys. Friday Baker Hughes Rig count data. Down for 11 weeks in a row. The number of oil rigs falling eight. Total number of rigs, 13. Eight of those were oil rigs. We are not 489 oil and gas rigs in the United States, guys. If we lose one more, we will be the lowest rig count since the numbers began being tallied in 1948, thats according to Standard Charter bank, 488 operating rigs in 1948, we are at 489, so were down from the 11th straight week. All those lost oil rigs have also resulted in a big loss of jobs for the oil and gas industry. That is about the only part of the workforce not getting stronger right now. The government says last month 242,000 jobs were created, unemployment held study at 4. 9 . Lets dig deeper with Steve Liesman and bill rogers. Steve, take it back to the federal reserve. Does this, dare i say, put march back on the table . I dont think so. I think the market is all the way over to one side right now. And unless the fed has an interest in surprising the markets, and the effect of that would be to make the markets raise Interest Rates further than the fed would want, it wouldnt go unless there is some major speech and we have brainerd and stan fisher, both speaking on monday, they will not redirect the market. It does put june on the table and the market had mostly priced june out and i think if we keep going, steady like this, june is a real possibility. Fisher, correct me if im wrong, has been the fed official who has thrown the most specifics out. We could get some market moving fed stuff from fisher on monday. Thats entirely possible. I would be paying very close attention. I have a feeling you will. Bill rogers, i heard for months and months and months as the economy gets closer to full employment, which we either are at, i love to hear when you think we are or not, but as the labor market grows tighter, wages would start to go up. They didnt. Why . The month over number did not go up. But if you look at the year over number, it was up around i think 2 or so. And it has been consistently tracking that at that for the last few years. What stalled in the most recent month. What stalled . I think were still going to dig through the data there. Any idea, steve . Look, you had a huge out of sample rise january, 0. 5 , down minus. 1. I get confused, i listen to the music play. I average the two months very simply. Very easy. It is a little bit stronger than it was. I would not have expected strong job gains and not off the strong job gains kick now. The lack of income growth, which is really the story of the last generation, frankly, right . Several decades, yes he. Certainly the underlying story of the political campaign. Yes. Thats what got people angry. Can i get at that, because the while the media is on to the idea that there is this all dissatisfaction out there in the economy, it is changing. And changing in an interesting way. America, in a very quiet way, has gone back to work. The rise in the civilian labor force over the past five months, we have brought in half a million, just the past three months each. We are up 2 million year over year in terms of the size of the labor force, you had the tick up in the participation rate. It is almost like the story that everybody is on to is an older story. I dont want to say were out of the woods and all the trouble is gone, but it is making a change and it has been quiet. It has been unremark and it suggests this issue, you ask about tight labor markets, there is a pool out there of folks who dropped out of the workforce and seem to be coming back to work. So you are going to love these two charts i brought. I got charts too. You knew i was coming. Youre a Labor Department economist. So this is right up your guys alley. You know the story, the bears out there, people negative on the market will say, the Labor Force Participation rate, while spiking a little last month, continues to decline and were at 20 years low. So lets bring up this chart. This is an important lesson in timing of charts too. This is Labor Force Participation. 1996. It looks crummy. Youre, like, no ones working. Now lets look at the same chart going back to 1966. A 50year chart, and you can see that while down, we kind of erect the historical mean of where the Labor Force Participation rate wants to be. Square the debate for us. Is the job market really that lousy or to steves point, is this kind of where we want to be given the demographics . The job market has recovered tremendously as secretary perez said this morning, you know, this administration was handed a very, very tough hand. And so, you know, we had dramatic improvement, hasnt gotten us back to where we were at the beginning of the session, no. But we he are in historical sense at higher levels. Now, the concern among macro economists who try to forecast growth into the future is that that chart, the longer period chart you showed is one that with lower labor participation, only trending down because youre going to get the baby boomers retiring and thats going to have a lower impact on Economic Growth. So unless you have, you know, more kinds of productivity, types of technological changes that can enhance and expand growth, you know, you have major we have some problems. The demographic issue means that what we saw in that chart over the last ten years is the outlier part of the chart, not something we necessarily people retiring, thats a big part of it, you have women who entered the workforce in certain percentages that have decided they dont want to work and thats a personal decision. But you also have the problem part of this, which discourage workers, people that dropped out of the workforce. Without that component, it would be higher and we shouldnt look at that and say it is all okay, because it is not okay, some of it is okay. Some of it is badly not okay. I think i would sum up this i dont mean to rain on what is a pretty good overall report here. More people are working, but fewer people feel like theyre getting ahead. We have certain incomes arent going very much. Incomes, you talk about incomes, it is still we have a large number of americans who are working part time, but want to work full time. You have people who dropped out of the labor force, if offered a job, they would down. 2, still higher than normal, we dropped. 2 from 9. 9 to 9. 7 . The total aggregation of all of those disaffected workers, unemployed workers, it has been coming down. I didnt dispute this. But still elevated and higher then at the beginning of the recession. And then second piece is back to the participation. Do i have a minute . Very quickly . It is the star of this report was labor force. That you see a recovery, see people you see people moving back. We had this debate a month or two ago, you were questioning whether or not to me whether or not these people would come back. And these that we had hit a structural structural unemployed but i think were seeing a rebound. Youll discuss that during the commercial break, im sure. Thank you so much, really appreciate it. I didnt have time to give my chart. Your chart. Sorry. Lollipop later. Tweet them out. All right. Thanks, guys. Maybe more charts with a market flash with seema mody. Look at shares of jcpenney gaining steadily today, hitting session highs of more than 5 . The retailer was upgraded to buy from hold at ever core noticing outperformance versus peers in a very challenging and volatile environment. The stock has gained more than 70 just this year. Impressive turn around for shares of jcp. Certainly. Looks like it. Wow. Thanks. Jobs and the president ial race, employers picking up the pace of hiring, more people looking for work. Wages slipping. So the wealth of the American Labor market, will it decide the president ial election . We discuss, youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. patrick 1 whats it like to be the boss of you . patrick 2 pretty great. patrick 1 how about a 10 raise . patrick 2 how about 20 . patrick 1 how about done . patrick 2 thats the kind of control i like. And thats what they give me at national car rental. 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Compare. Com saving humanity from high insurance rates. Welcome back to power lunch. Im tyler mathisen. Better than expected employment report out today as we have been talking about, 242,000 jobs added in february. Will the state of jobs decide the president ial election or will other things that they have been talking about decide it. Joining us, mark morial, president and ceo of the National Urban league, former mayor of new orleans and joe watkins former white house aide to george h. W. Bush. Let me begin, joe, with you, if i might. We just have gotten word that Hillary Clinton later today in a speech in michigan is going to call for a clawback of tax incentives or breaks that corporations got for basically research and development that for companies that then moved jobs or facilities out of the country. I know this is sort of blind siding you, but conceptually, is this a good move, in other words, to try and get back some of the tax breaks from prior years, given to companies that then move jobs overseas . Maybe to in an Election Year, in the president ial Election Year for a democratic candidate, running for the presidency, this may give her so relief. After aill shes running agains Bernie Sanders telling the economy it is rigged against them. This kind of move on Hillary Clintons part makes sense for her. Not necessarily a good thing for the economy. You dont want to punish companies. Dont want to punish businesses. You want to encourage businesses to prosper and grow. But from her standpoint, politically, this is a move that she feels will help her solidify her lead over bernie. More for show than for dough. Let me turn to the jobs report, mayor, if i might, what if any criticisms do you have of what is going on in the u. S. Labor market . I want to comment on the earlier let me say this, let me say that about this. I think it is going to be a big issue in the general election and that is how to grow jobs, and how to disincentivize what i would call the transfer of jobs abroad. So this is about aligning the incentives so American Public policy incenses companies to grow by keeping jobs here in the United States. As to the jobs report, the Economic Growth is modest. The jobs numbers are good. But we still have too many part time workers looking for full time jobs. And still too many workers who dropped out out eped out of th. What makes it a good report is the consistency of job growth. We have to keep our eyes also on wages and wage stagnation and thats really, i think, going to be at the centerpiece of the fall election. Thats what we were just talking about with bill rogers and Steve Liesman. Joe, what to you make of whats going on in your party . Well, of course, this is a very unusual time in our party. You got a lot of angry people. The 6 million workers who are working part time for economic reasons, theyre angry. The longterm unemployed, they make up 27. 7 of the unemployed, theyre angry. All the people who cant find work, maybe there is work in some of the sectors, maybe if youre in food services, there is work. But if youre in professional services, there isnt work. And youre angry. And so the candidacy of donald trump has spoken to that. What hes saying is that if you elect me, im not part of the system, but i will find a way to fix the Economic System and to get you a job, get you back to work. Right now youre not working. Have you endorsed a candidate, joe . Absolutely not. Ive not endorsed anybody. We all know i work for president george h. W. Bush, my daughter worked for george w. Bush in the white house and so did my wife. And we like jeb bush and jeb bush no longer a candidate. I know most of the candidates running for president. Ive not endorsed anybody yet. But right now a lot of jockeying still. Donald trump doesnt owe anybody anything. Thats the fear for many establishment republicans, but he has the clear lead and hes on his way to being the nominee of the party if he can retain his strong lead in the upcoming weeks in these primaries. It is michelle here. Excuse my interpretation, but i thought you looked like you had a smug mile on your face when tyler asked the question about what was happening. You have a socialist running on the ticket and giving Hillary Clinton a run for her money. If it is hillary versus trump, are you worried . No. Im never worried about the decision of the American Voters will have. Are you worried that Hillary Clinton could lose . No one can predict the outcome of the fall election. But i think if you have a clinton trump race, you have a clear, clear choice. And i think clear choices mean you have high turnout, high turnout always yields, i think, a good result. What im more concerned about is a low turnout election with people who are discouraged from voting because maybe theyre not excited about what they see. But, look, the country is at a crossroads and this is a very important election. At some point, there will be a republican nominee. And there will be a democratic nominee. And i hope not a n