Roughly where they are. And any motion there is going to be slow and deliberate. Lets get to bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. It is the newest leg of this rally, Dow Jones Industrial average at a high for the year and much of it is being fueled by that weak dollar set off by the fomc announcement yesterday. Want to show you that dollar index. Dollar lost 2. 2 against other currencies just in the last 24 hours or so. Thats a huge move. Big move and big help from materials and industrials and Energy Stocks. Look at caterpillar here. Caterpillar gave the worst kind of profit warning, dropping essentially dropping profits 30 in the First Quarter and the stock is up 1 today. Look at that. Moved about 3 . This is a twoday chart. Thats a sign of how powerful the weak dollar rally has been. Now, take a look at other commodity needs, throw in a couple of names, free port, alcoa, devin energy, Energy Stocks moving today. This is the second day of a notable rally. Put the same stocks up, put the full screen up, ill show you what the same stocks have done just in the last 24 hours, since 2 00 yesterday. Free port up 11 , alcoa up 7. 5 . This is less than 24 hours. Thats how powerful the rally has been on the weak dollar. Weak dollar means the euro and yen have strengthened. What does that mean . That means tough news for european stocks, who are big exporters, like the automakers, bmw and daimler and sneaker manufacturers like adidas. But lets not look a gift horse in the mouth. Were seeing an expansion of new highs. Nearly 200 at the new york stock exchange, havent seen that in a while. I got an industrial at a new high, illinois tool works, we know the big consumer days, a lot of them on new highs and verizon and at t. Rally continues. Back to you. Bob, thank you very much. Meantime, lets bring in ron insana and mike santoli. The dow basically at break even for the year. The s p getting close. Ron, where do we go from here . I think this is a very tradable rally. The fed breeds new life into the entire process yesterday by saying, listen, theyre going to delay, theyre going to cut the number of rate hikes, i think theyre not going to raise rates at all this year. That does extend the life of this. I do think the burden, though, tyler, is still on the bulls for a real breakout. This may be a tradable rally. Im not sure it is a new leg in the secular bull market. We havent heard anything about profits, mike santoli, yet this year. That seems to be one key here. The fed may well be another key here. What does history tell us about Market Performance when you have this kind of i hear bagpipes behind you. First of all, lets talk about this tradition we have here. One of the floor brokers is entertaining a lunch crowd here with some bagpipe music. By the way im guessing mr. Carbshcashin the middle of this somehow. St. Paddys day, one of the strongest days of the year, up on average 1 . And four other days of the year have been stronger. Make of that what you will, i guess in terms of motivation. I think we can probably infer happy hour has begun there and the lets just say liquidity is being injected. So, mike, what does history tell us when we begin a year as we have with major losses, and we come back this late in the year to hit the break even point . It is actually a little cautious when you have a year like this one that has gone this deep. 50 plus trading days without the s p 500 once even for one minute trading positive. Only happened six times before. Five of those six years you did have a decline the remainder of the year. Nothing cataclysmic but that being said, because were so close to the flat line, it doesnt necessarily mean that we are in meltdown mode. I honestly think that getting back to even for the year is significant and what does encourage me a little bit is a lot of the suspicion that continues to surround this rally. The idea that this was just kind of a snap back. I totally agree with ron, the burden of proof is high in terps of getting back to the all time highs since last may. The fed removed the negative. Were tethered to the weak dollar, strong oil trade, until further notice. Mike, im glad you brought in the idea of a suspicious rally. Just looking at the screen today. You see still money going into the utilities. Theyre up 1 today. And telecom, bonds are not selling off. This is not the kind of Market Reaction one would think or a day which could be momentous in which we claim the flat line. Thats why i think it is more of a swing traders market. It is not look, for investors, for longterm investors you do what you do throughout the process. Ten, 20 year thing. You take that part off the table. If youre active, youre trying to catch 10 off the bottom and get 10 off the high and trade this back and forth. Lets not forget, yesterday, the feds news and the guests we had on gross and minor, they were warning us about some stuff. I cried myself to sleep. I was terrified after that interview. You have gold up 35 an ounce here. This is a risk market, but investors are acting like everything is fine. Thats a reflation trade. You look at the dollar falling, rates standing pat or going lower and rates lower around the world, gold is going up on a reflation trade, so is oil. I dont like the head winds overseas, theyre still rather stark. Geopolitical risk is rather high. Could make for a choppy environment. We may not be going to the moon and epic collapse, but one of those environments very difficult. Thanks to our two honorary irish men, we appreciate it. Were also following a developing story out of brazil where political tensions continue to escalate. Michelle carusocabrera is with us from the nasdaq with the details. Protests erupted across brazil last night following president Dilma Rousseffs decision to name her silva as chief of staff. If he becomes a cabinet minister, it makes him immune from prosecution. Thousands of demonstrators flooded the avenue in the Financial Hub of the country and the site of one of sundays largest demonstrations. People have been in the streets now for a couple of days. Look at the ewz. Up by more than 7 . They surged even more after brazilian judge issued an injunction to try to revent lula from taking the job because he says it will disrupt the justice process. Lets bring in the cohead of emerging markets. We see a lot of investors piling into brazil because they think what happens there means the current president Dilma Rousseff is going to get impeached. Are you one of those people who are bullish on brazil for that reason . Hi, michelle. We are bullish on brazil and we have been bullish on brazil for a while. Our view has not been predicated on regime change, not happening this quickly. The expectation has been that even the level of on the political prowess that has been part of the brazil story for months now ultimately would leading to some kind of disruption and we might be on the verge of that, we dont know. But from a more fundamental story and we like brazilian assets for a while now. What if dilma does go . Is that good for brazilian stocks and bonds . It should be. Largely this would bring a shock of confidence, something that has been missing. And it would bring the political stand still it a stop. A new regime would most likely be able to inject optimism that has been missing, provided this happens in the context of the process that is within what the constitution provides and we dont have a reason to expect that that wouldnt be the case. So it would be a positive, i would think so, yes. I almost to me sounds like youre suggesting maybe a coup or something, im not sure about that. What do you guys what is the house betting here at this point . Do you think shes going to go . It is looking more and more like it is going to be very difficult situation for dilma to remain in office. There are actually two channels that are pursuing potential impeachment for the president. One of them might prosper. It is a process on the table for months now, but the expectation is this was not going to happen for maybe throughout the course of this year. But as we the story is very fluid, a lot of headlines are hitting the tape as we speak. But it is moving in the direction that it points that things are becoming too tenuous and we might be coming to an end of the process. But, again, we expect this to happen within the framework of the constitutional the constitution. The notion of a coup and all that stuff seems outside of i wasnt sure, you want them to follow rule of law. A lot of investors in the world would want them to do that. Gorky, thank you for joining us. Appreciate it. Thank you. The Economists Intelligence Unit making a big claim about what it sees as the dangers of a donald Trump Presidency. They equate the economic risk of him being elected with the Global Economic threat posed by jihadi terrorism. Well hear from the man sounding that alarm next. Every insurance policy has a number. But not every Insurance Company understands the life behind it. For those whove served and the families that have supported them, we offer our best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Theno one surface. Out there. No one speed. No one way of driving on each and every road. But there is one car that can conquer them all. The mercedesbenz cclass. Five driving modes let you customize the steering, shift points, and suspension to fit the mood youre in. And the road youre on. The 2016 cclass. Lease the c300 for 399 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. I am a First Responder tor and iemergencies 24 hours a day, everyday of the year. My children and my family are on my mind when im working all the time. My neighbors are here, my friends and family live here, so its important for me to respond as quickly as possible and get the power back on. Its an amazing feeling turning those lights back on. Be informed about outages in your area. Sign up for outage alerts at pge. Com outagealerts. Together, were building a better california. Welcome back to power lunch. Lets talk a little arts and crafts here. Michaels hitting session highs now, rising all day long. The Company Reported a beat on fourth quart estimates for sales and profits with an assist and demand for holiday products. Michaels gave their First QuarterProfit Guidance above many expectations. The shares are still down, though, 7 over the past 12 months. Back over to you. Dominic, thank you very much. Donald trump winning the presidency could have a dangerous impact on the world economy. That according to a new report out by the respected economist magazine. In its updated global risk assessment, a Trump Presidency would be as dangerous to the world economy, says the magazine, as the possibility of islamic terrorists destabilizing global growth. Quote, in the event of a trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade and alienation of mexico and china in particular could escalate rapidly into a trade war and at the least scupper the transpacific partnership. We reached out to the Trump Campaign several times today for a response but did not get a comment. Robert powell is the economist editor and one of the researchers behind the report. Mr. Powell, welcome, good to have you with us. Good to be here. I think just go ahead and explain how you put mr. The risk of a Trump Presidency to the Global Economy on a par with the risk deriving from global jihadi terrorism. Well, the United States is the biggest economy in the world and the identity of its president is obviously of huge interest and huge significance, not just for the United States, but for the rest of the world as well. So if you do have Something Like a trade war, or falling out with china, or indeed complete policy inaction at home, it has a spillover effect for the Global Economy. Jihadi terrorism is terrifying and dangerous prospect for all of us. But it would take a series of major events in a series of Major Economies to actually disrupt the Global Economy. In other words, isolated incidents of terrorism wherever they might occur in the world, that came from islamic jihadism would not cumulatively have the pose the same rifb risks as a global trade war fermented by mr. Trump. Absolutely. I entirely agree. You need something along the lines of one or multiple 9 11 type events. You make the point in there that mr. Trumps bellicose rhetoric with respect to muslims, with respect to immigration, with respect to attacking islamic terrorists and their families where they live, and sending Ground Troops into syria among other places to root them out would paradoxically or maybe not paradoxically would just directly aid in the recruitment of more jihadi terrorists. Yes. Thats very much our view. Jihadi terrorist recruiters for a long time have been claiming that the United States is actually engaged in a war against islam. So an invasion of syria and taking that countrys oil, which is actually what mr. Trump has advocated would really lend to that recruiting core. It also doesnt help necessarily alienating 1. 6 billion muslims across the world by saying there will be a ban on muslims entering the country. That kind of rhetoric is going to alienate and add to the recruitment. It is brian sullivan. Surely you must admit that whoever is in the white house, donald trump or whoever it might be, we have a congress. And they provide a valuable safeguard toward maybe enforcing some of the stuff that the politicians say. Did any of that go into your consideration . Yes, it does. One of the great concerns is we have had considerable dysfunction across the u. S. Political system for years. But that will probably descend into something approaching political chaos into a Trump Presidency. If you think about it, it is not just obviously the democrats that oppose him, but so do quite a lot of republicans as well, in the top echelons. As you get any policy action immigration, tax reform and so forth, it will be a heck of a long shot. I suppose the same could be said for a democratic president who could be polarizing in their his or her own way and would face congressional hurdles on many things they might like to do as well. Lets look, come back to mr. Trump and islamist terrorism. But i want to get you to identify the other risks on your sort of top ten list of Global Economic risks. The number one one, i believe it has been there before, is the risk of china experiencing what you call a hard landing economically followed by russias interventions in ukraine and syria bringing about a new cold war. Yeah, that number one has been for a few months now. The fear is china, with debts of around 240 of gdp, it is now approached and in some cases surpassed the levels of debt we had in the u. S. From the financial crisis and we had in japan for its long stagnation and in thailand before the asian crisis. There will be a reckoning at some stage. When that bubble pops, so will the China Economy and it is hugely significant for the rest of the Global Economy for producers, consumers and so forth. Thats our number one concern. Robert, thank you for your perspective. Well be watching. Appreciate it. Thank you very much indeed. Robert powell, the economist. To Michelle Carusocabrera with breaking news. More news breaking on cuba. I learned in the last hour a plane load of mail from the United States landed there yesterday and the u. S. Postal service confirming to cnbc that they have just resumed mail service from the u. S. To cuba. So there is another another new regulatory change we have seen this week. Interest there is another one, im going to tell you that one after the break because it has a direct impact on our next guest, the ceo of Norwegian Cruise Lines, who hopes to have a ship pulling into havana later this year. We talk to him next on power lunch. Jake reese, day to feel alive jake reese, day to feel alive jake reese, day to feel alive from icy ocean waters. To your kitchen counter. On. Pure. Pristine. Each one its own delicious arctic prize. When you cook with incredible ingredients. You make incredible meals. Fresh ingredients. Stepbysteprecipes. Delivered to your door. Get your first two meals free blueapron. Com cook. Welcome back to power lunch. Were here at the nasdaq for the war in momentum cuba opportunity summit. Lots of people here discussing about the possibilities of doing business in cuba and in the last hour, more news related to the regulatory framework. The u. S. Removed cuba from the list of ports they deem to have insufficient security. Super important to our next guest. Frank del rio, president and ceo of Norwegian Cruise Line here at the cuba opportunity summit today. You obviously need this regulatory change to pull a ship into cuba, correct . It is technical, but yes. Big deal. Here we are, one year ago we interviewed you at the same conference. Lots of hope. Everything was so new with the change in cuba relationship. You have been working on getting a cruise into cuba since then. How is that going . It is going well. A year ago was all euphoria, all lots of hopes and dreams and now the hard work began right after that. It has been a year of hard work, a year of development, but countries have done a lot of work to clear the path to make it easier. Still within the confinz of the embargo. Sooner or later the embargo has to go for the Tourism Industry in cuba to flourish. Today, even with all the changes that the executive orders have, it is travel that is allowed, not tourism. There is a big distinction. Still, there has been a lot of criticism of the process so far because the americans have made the american s