Or nondecision. 59 minutes from now. But meantime, we start off with apple. That stock is more than doubled the daily volume average, 80 million shares trade sod far today. As you might expect, apple is pressuring the nasdaq. Surprising moves in the dow and s p 500 which look to be pretty resill yenlt on t yenl resili of this news. What does apple need to do to bounce back from the first revenue decline in 13 years . Lets bring in our analyst who lowered the price to 125 after 141. Jason ware, he owns 143,000 shares of apple. Gentlemen, great to you have with us. Ill start off with you, you know, it really is the Second Quarter revenue guidance that has a lot of investors concerned. And all the reasons they list behind that revenue guidance lower is theyre terrible reasons. Plan to cut inventory by 2 billion. Lower average selling prices because of that se. Overly optimistic forecast for the mac during the back to school season. Why do you stick with an overweight rating right now . Well, ill tell you, its never a great idea to sell at the bottom. So that, you know, that is where we are today. The stock is probably going to continue to trade off peoples expectations coming down. And it is definitely a big miss for june. We expect a lot of the problem is macro. You know, in the discussion yesterday apple highlighted macro weakness. We think there is a deviation on a negative side and consumer demand here. You are saying its a bottom . Have we seen the worst for the shares or well soon see the worst for the shares . Yeah, i think can you see the shares continue to trade off a little bit here. Youre kind of in a gap of information now through the summer. It looks like macro is deteriorating a little bit. We dont have any new products to talk about. So as we move into summer, typically the stock tends to trade off anyway. And with this kind of a report and that backdrop, i would expect it to do more so. Jason, do we have to wait until the fall and a new iphone 7 before this stock gets some mojo . I think we do. I think if past is pro log, typically what you see is as we get into the next generation product cycle, you want to be in the stock ahead of that. Usually by a couple months in order to enjoy the gains. We saw it on the iphone 6 when the phone did well. It was punked in 2014 and 2015, it picked up. To be an investor, you have to look ahead to the next product cycle. That may be the iphone 7 coming this fall. It could be the nexgen screens. While those products used to move ahead in leaps, now they seem to move ahead in inches. Yeah. I mean, you need to see product go ahead, jason. Yeah. Its definitely fair. You need to see it ragss that are meaningful. Even though that gap narrowed, the fact that install base expanded and the ecosystem and the value of the ecosystem backs more and more important over time. Its a theme we talked about for months now. Im starting to see some traction in the press talking about the value of the software, value of the services, et cetera. And that becomes more important down the road. So the hardware it ragss are still important. I think incrementally less so as we go on in that product base expands globally. Jason, are you buying more today . No, were pretty much what would be a sell side hold. But no, were not buying more. Were comfortable with our position in apple. The last time on a conference call, maybe for the first time, testimony cook made reference to the possibility of making a pretty decent acquisition even saying we would buy something larger than we bought thus far. What you would tlik see apple buy in order for it to either get a jumpstart on a category, integrate some feature into the current products or accelerate its standing in the category . Yeah, im not going to speculate on specific companies. What company do you think investors where do you think apple needs to innovate . Yeah, lets talk about the specific areas of innovation. Obviously, the automotive side of things has been talked about a lochlt we could see them going that direction. That is a few years out. Technology to inform that kind of a move would be interesting. I think another thing that a lot of people arent talking a lot about, weve started to talk about is augmented reality. You know, these smart phones are peaking now very similar to the way things like the ipod peaked in 06. We know what happened in 07, the iphone got introduced. We think there are other product breakthroughs coming that will make this more obsolete. We would like to see apple start invest. Like what . Thats tantalizing. Like what . Yeah, well, i think that youre going to see the way i like to describe it is terminator vision. You get products that actually allow you to put on a pair of glasses, not google glass. You dont want to necessarily look that way for that low of a return on the technology. But pretty soon well have glass thats let us do away with our monitors. And see all sorts of overlays on a real world. And thats coming faster than people think. We think of the next year or two youll see products on the market. All right. Rod and jason, sit tight. We want to bring in another voice on apple. This is the charts. We know that many traders and investors buy on fund. Als but some buy on technicals. Matt, youre seeing a bearish story forming based on apple technicals. What are you seeing in the charts . First of all, you know, right now weve had i throw up a yellow flag on the stock. Not quite a red one yet. But what we have is a problem with were unable, even before the earnings came out yesterday, the stock was already rolling over a little bit. In fact, it got right up to the 200day moving average. You got slightly above it and then rolled back over. Thats exactly what it did back in november just before the stock got hit quite hard and along with the rest of the market. So can we have another head fake . We have a second head fake in a row. We got up to a key resistance level and it rolled back over. Now that its, you know, now that breakdown or failure to break out has been a meaningful one, and its formed a lower high, thats a big problem. Yeah, this looks like a classic case of lower highs and lower lows coming. Exactly. Thats now thats why i say its only yellow flag yet. We have to break below those, you know, the january, february low. Right around the 93 level. It was 93. 40 on a closing basis. But thats that level right there, if you break below that, that means we would have, as you say, tyler, a lower low a lower tie followed by a lower low. And thats when the momentum really has a problem. And we know with all the etfs and things nowadays, its a big part of the market. Matt, you see a yellow flag. Jason has a long term holder, youre equivalent of a hold rating. I go to you with the overweight rating. Apple has not traded with the markets. Its down 20 over the past 12 months or. So and the markets are just within whispers of all time highs. As you say its facing macro headwinds. It sounds like a lot of the miss and revenue guidance down from Second Quarter is macro. Why do you stick with that what takes it 25 higher from where its trading right now . Yeah, i think like i said, you want to as jason said, you want to own the stock ahead of new product cycles. That product cycle, well start to learn more about that in the summer. I wouldnt be surprised to seat stock trading off from here a little bit. I think by the end of the year you have a chance to have the stock significantly higher. So its going to make apple go up 25 is what youre saying . One thing to remember, only about probably about 47 of the base has upgraded to larger screen sizes. We know consumers like the screen sizes. So we suspect if youre feeling a little tight on the budget right now, youre looking forward to that new phone in the fall. Then when that phone comes, you probably move through an upgrade. So probably will be a little bit better product in the back end of the year. All right, matt, rod, and jason, good discussion on apple. Thank you very much. All right. The fed is the other story were watching today. Kind of like watching paint dry. Were counting down to the big fed decision at the top of the hour. In the meantime, lets get insight from the chief Investment Officer of u. S. Corps strategies. The reason i make some fun of it is that no one, and i assume youre included in that no one group, thinks the fed is going to do anything and theyre going to try and say as little as they possibly can to box them in for a move later in the year as early as june wlachlt do you say . Well that, is probably right. The bank of japan is probably going to be mob impactful for, you know market sent. Than anything the fed says today. We think the meeting today, the statement will be more about characterizing the outlook for the june meeting. Its very likely the fed wants to keep alive the june meeting so theyll likely put forth in the statement some acknowledgement of a little bit more settled conditions outside of the United States which is one of the chief reasons for not moving before. Theyll acknowledge labor market. Seems to be on trend. Still performing well. And that perhaps u. S. Growth is a little bit weaker. I think the key thing to watch for in the statement is if they bring back the statement about the outlook being balanced with respect to the Economic Outlook, and if they do that, we sort of expect them to do that. It means that june is in play. So the doj is meeting. Theyre having a News Conference on thursday. You actually say the boj meeting is more important than the fed meeting. How boxed in do you think the fed is . I mean, in that do you think it is sort of waiting to see what the boj does and whether it plunges the economy further into negative Interest Rates . Well, theyll be watching that with interest. You know, we think that boj will do something thats probably more constructive than what they did last time. In term of moving towards more credit easing. While they may make another step lower in moving into negative rate territory if, they do that, theyll offset that with Balance Sheet expansions, perhaps purposing more equities, perhaps even introducing a program like the ecb did to pay banks to lend to the real economy. So that would be perceived as a risk positive and a growth positive event. So certainly the fed will be watching that. We dont think the fed is really too stitched in or hampered in term of normalizing policy by what other Central Banks are doing. The reason i say that is because the dollar is well off its highs. I mean brit was a lot of currency strength and dollar strength. But thats really fading fast into the rearview mirror. So thats not a good reason to keep them if moving. Thats nice. More of the same fed. So what do we do . Buy stocks, let it fly . Well, we think investors should be taking this dramatic turn around in market sentiment, repricing to equities back to the highs to take risk off the table. I mean, just remember where we were two months ago. So we would say were still in an environment where sent. Is goi sentiment will be fragile. So we think its a time to reduce risk in the bond market. We think its time for investors to stick higher in quality, there is still a lot we can do. Does that mean reduce the ris n risk in the bond market. Well, yes. It is the place to go to avoid risk. And particularly, you know, high grade, Investment Grade bonds. There are ways to reduce risk. We do that by saying treasuries are fully valued at the front end of the yield curve. But focus on things like inflation linked treasuries which have not recovered and pricing in unrealistic expectation for inflation. So that is a very cheap sector of air fi quality of the bond market you want to overweight. There is a lot of value. We had a retracement in spreads. So that is another sector. Of course with, our outlook and u. S. Economy that continues to move along at a 2 pace, there is value in Mortgage Backed securities, too. So those are the types of things were emphasizing in the portfolio rather than going down in quality, you know, overemphasizing high yield or lowering the standards to try to chase yield. We think its a pretty dangerous strategy at this point in time. We fully expect there to be episodes like we saw in january and february that repeat over the course of the year. Quick answer here. This is a data dependent fed. They keep reminding us. Are the data, u. S. And global better than they were at the last meeting . And on trend to be better still by june . Or worse . Quickly. Mostly unchanged. You know, there was a market overreaction and a lot of fears about the being big change in the underlying economic momentum in the u. S. And earlier in the year. It wasnt the case. Theres no real change from that sort of sttrajectory. Its not a dramatic improvement. The markets, if theyre hoping for that, we havent seen that yet in the data either. All right, scott, thank you very much. Our countdown to the fed is just Getting Started. Plus we have much more on apples big miss yesterday. But first, we head to iran where a showdown over sanctions is heating up. Our very own michelle is in tehran for us. Tyler mshgs companies, many countries are trying to get back into tehran. Most American Companies cannot. And even nonu. S. Companies, a lot of them have a lot of fear about coming back here. Theyre legitimate fears. Ill explain when power lunch is live from tehran next. Anywh. Its been smashed and driven. 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Man 1 when did this happen . Man 2 over the last six months. Man 1 how did we miss it . Man 2 we caught it, just not in time. Man 1 who . How . Man 2 not sure, probably offshore, foreign, pros. Man 1 what did they get . Man 2 what didnt they get. Man 1 i need to call mike. Man 2 dont use your phone. Its not just security, its defense. Bae systems. Sd. Welcome back to pl h. Powe everybody. Iran is blasting the United States today, akugz america of scaring away businesses from entering iran. The ayatollah addressing a crowd of workers in say ran saying that the deal with the u. S. To lift International Sanctions is a deal on paper only. Were live on the ground in iran. Hi, michelle. The Practical Impact of lifting the Nuclear Sanctions is that European Companies can come back in here and do business in iran. American companies cannot because there are so many sanctions still in place dating back to the carter administration, some of them. All related to us is spings thats iran is supporting terrorism, that theyre doing Money Laundering and abusing human rights. There is an exception for the Airline Industry which explains why weve seen executives from ge and boeing come to iran. They bought more than 100 planes from air bus almost immediately upon signing the deal. Where iran is desperate for investment is the oil and gas sector. They have 49 projects that they would like to see done, theyre going to announce in june or july where they hope to get maybe 150 billion when it comes to investments. One sector we dont talk about a lot but deeply impacted by the sanctions is irans auto industry. It wasnt lack of demand, it was lack of parts that caused it to decrease 50 . They couldnt import them anymore. They had to stop production until local suppliers could step n we went to the largest auto plant in iran and in all of the middle east that can produce 160,000 cars per year. It is called the ico group. They manufacture iranian brands. The Vice President in charge of strategy told me that for the last several years, they could only sell this car showing here with a manual transmission because they couldnt import the electronics for the automatic transmission. He says, however, he has seen an immediate beneficial impact since the sanctions were lifted. This is Getting Better but it takes time, i believe. Now we have some difficulty for the transmitting of money. But for supplier parts, theyre working with us. That last thing he said, not being able to transfer money, thats a big issue for nearly every company. It highlights a big issue, one that comes to the Financial Sector in iran. The banks really still are struggling for a number of reasons. Thats because iran is still on the international blacklist whether it comes to the Financial Action task force. They only have two countries on that blacklist. North korea is another one along with iran. Its one reason where many large banks are not opening up to iran. That group is concerned about Money Laundering in this country. Additionally, a lot of the same european banks fear the long arm of the u. S. Law because of those u. S. Sanctions still in place. Iran cant iran cant use the dollar. Nearly all International Business in some ways is done in dollars. So these banks fear that theyre going to be fined. Its really frustrated the iranians tremendously. They had another meeting with john kerry specifically to complain about it. John kerry was in the awkward position of trying to convince european banks to actually do business when the iranians, very strange situation. Thats the story trying to do business in iran. Can they get their Oil Facilities back up and running in . In the next hour, well give you a behindthescenes look that has never been seen, its off the coast of iran. It is where nearly all of irans exports leave. Its crucial to them because thats where th