168 points to the down side. At the lows we were down about 185, 186 points. So were off the worst levels of the session so far. But an interesting carry through from yesterdays trade when it was all about the fed minutes and the idea. The possibility of a june rate hike from the Federal Reserve and that really drove markets kind of a little bit more towards the volatile side. Today, most is to the down side in terms of moves. You can see theyre off by 1 for the s p 500. Utilities and staples have taken up the lead if can you call it. That up about a quarter to a third of a percent. Theyre showing signs of life here in this particular down day. The financials are interesting to focus on because so many of them, including regional banks, were such big gainers in yesterdays trade. On the idea that Interest Rates could rise on the longer end and the shorter end and maybe expand the yield curve and give them a profit margin. The net interest margins, youll hear traders talking about financials, the big lagger today off by 1. 5 . Retail is the key today here. Walmart, the biggest retailer of them all, dicks sporting goods, up by 7 to 8 . Ross stores and gap, i want to point out because they report after todays closing bell. Back to you. I got, dom. Thanks so much. So new york fed president William Dudley echoing what we heard, a summer rate hike sont table. Lets bring in Steve Liesman. And maybe going a little further, michelle. By suggesting its even likely, more than just on the table. Bill dudley in a press Conference Today following up on yesterdays surprise minutes that set a june rate hike is likely if the economy improves. Dudley suggested, hey, thats what he expects to happen. He expects conditions to be ripe for a hike come summer. If im convinced that my forecast, my own forecast is sort of on track, then i think a tightening in the summer, the june july time frame is a reasonable expectation. It is really a question wlf the economy he could operates and performs in line with my personal expectations. He did say the british referendum remaining in the European Union is something that he is watching. It comes eight days after the feds june meeting and could affect the feds decision. He laid out three factors that could affect the decision to raise rates in june. Fed will be assessing the probability of the leave vote. The impact on financial conditions if the uk does leave the eu. And, of course, the underlying strength of the u. S. Economy. Dudley is won of three key players on the rate setting federal open Market Committee along with janet yellen and stan fisher. Dudley thinks that the data is going to improve whether it comes to the fed hitting that critical 2 inflation goal. I think if you look at the labor market data really closely, maybe can you see the signs of a little bit of an uptick in Wage Inflation pressures. So that is also consistent with the notion that were getting closer to full employment. So in general, i think im pretty confident that were going to get back to 2 as long as the economy continues to grow and is somewhat above trend pace that leads to further tighten g tightening. Theyre quick to caution there, making my promises here of a hike and the intentions to raise Interest Rates have been derailed before by weak u. S. Growth. The best can you say is they think the data will break their way by june. And if theyll hike around then. And a hike around then if it does. Just to be clear about my personal breathlessness, were talking about a quarter point. And the markets im breathless. Its 25 basis points. Lets just chill out. I want to sell the storey. The market is trading on it. Its down. But were talking about 25 basis points. The 25 basis point increase is basically a 50 jump in the fed funds rate. That is true. So you can sell it that way. Right. So probability of a brexit vote, i do read into that if the polls are very, very close, they likely wait and if the polls are like there is no way theyre going to lead, then theyre okay to go to june . Thats exactly the way to think about it. I think youre also pointing to a way the fed looks at. This from their standpoint, june or july is the same thing. It doesnt really matter to them. Like if you investing for five years or 20 years, if you put that dollar in june versus that dollar in july, it is meaningless. I agree. Except june is a press Conference Meeting and weve been told that fed wont make a big move until there is less of a press conference. Exactly. But this he could also they have you in the front row pounding. But they can signal in the june statement and we know they have a process in place to create a press conference if they need it. All right. Steve liesman, sit tight. Lets bring in another steve with mazuno securities. He thinks this whole thing is nuts. He yelled at me, too. He a lovable bear. Thats how were going to frame it. Will the fed raise Interest Rates in 18 trading days . Will the fed raise Interest Rates if not june, july they intend to do it. I dont think the datal give them the opportunity to to do it nor i do think they should do it. Im two on the no side, one on the yes side. They have this in their desire to do. They could probably do it. Remember last year they started in june. They went to september. They didnt get out until december. Its a Year Anniversary of the whole discussion about. This im sick and tired of talking about it. If youre going to do it, do it. Live with the ramifications of it. At this particular juncture, it is crazy. All right. You know what . I agree with him. I think this is the first time we have agreed. But what are then stephen the ramifications of it . The real problem youre going to get is were living in a world of excess supply. Not inflation. I think the fed is living in the past in this regard. We may get 2 inflation like thats horrific. We have an economy that is barely getting up to 2 inflation. Theyre barely getting up to inflation with the type of growth weve been having. And weve been struggling for years. Let it run for a little while. What is the ris snk shutter the thought. Steve, can we stipulate there are two states that economy can be in. One is in emergency state where its falling at like will 8 annual rate. And that would warrant an emergency type Interest Rate quaun take t quantitative easing. Were not in that state anymore. Is it 2 . Were doing trend. Were in and around trend . If job growth needs to be is 50 to 200,000 to keep the Unemployment Rate stable at relatively low at 5 , were. There can you not justify really really low rates at that level. It justifies a higher rate but not necessarily getting back to normal. Can you agree with that . Everything you just said i kind exception with. One, im not so sure at 2 is trend rate of growth. Im not so sure 5 is really full out unemployment at this point in time. Im not so sure any of those things are in place. And thats part of the problem. Youre looking at a Global Environment where youre looking at negative Interest Rates and economy thats cant get out of their own way. And were sitting say were perfectly fine. Were normal. Weve gone through the Slower Growth environment. I dont that i is the case. I think america is extremely productive. I think america is capable of doing a lot more than its doing. And i think the Federal Reserve is one of the reasons why its not happening. Get out of the picture, guys. Let this economy run for a while. Get out of the picture and stay at zero. What is wrong with that . Why is zero a problem . Japan functioned for 25 years at zero. Functioning. There is no reason not thriving no. No, it hasnt. But they have other problems. Theyre in deflation. Were not yet. Thats the critical issue. If the Federal Reserve plays games, we may very well be in deflation. In 2011, all the pundits were saying drop you know, hes got to raise Interest Rates. He raised rates once to prove he can do it. Raised rates again to prove he really meant it the first time. Where is europe now . Thats a different story. Again, you have the same thing. Youve got a lot of problems right now. There are a lot of people saying the fed is wrong in this particular juncture as well. If you think trend growth is 3 or 4 and the Unemployment Rate can tick down meaningfully by several percentage points, then i agree with you. The fed should keep its foot squarely on the accelerator. Thats the big difference. If you think. That. I do believe that. Guys, good discussion. I have a feeling our conversations about the Federal Reserve are not finished on this network. Steve and steven, thank you. Pleasure. Theres awe new development in the case of the egyptair flight. The wreckage of the missing aircraft has been found near the greek island. That information coming to the airline from the countrys minister of Civil Aviation at this point. Officials are not ruling out any possible cause including terrorism or mechanical failure. The flight from pair tois cairo was carrying 66 people. Lets bring in debbie hershman, the former ntsb chair. Good to you have here. No one is willing to rule out anything at this point. But we have had people individuals and officials go as far as to say they are leaning toward the possibility of terrorism due to lack of may day calls, et cetera, from the crew on the plane. What is your assessment thus far of what you heard . You know, it really is very oorl early. They say they found wreckage in greece. Theyre heading into the night time hour. There its going to really hamper the search process and recovery process. But it is so early now. You dont want to rule things out. But certainly looking to those officials that have information, that have intelligence that they may not be sharing us with yet. For americans who are watching, there is a flight from paris going to cairo, operated by a foreign air carrier. Obviously foreign airports. Is there enough difference between what happens in the United States when it comes to passengers and cargo, et cetera, versus what happens overseas . Im not sure we can make any statement that is declarative like that. There are always going to be risks and opportunities. Thats why its so important for everyone to stay vigilant on the individual level, on the organizal level and also there is a lot of debate with respect to security and security lines in the u. S. And so there is always going to be that tradeoff between safety and security and convenience. This brings into sharp focus the conversations were having about delays here in the u. S. System versus other systems throughout the world. Where do you come down on the conversations . Are they overdone . Do those lines make us safer in your opinion . You know, i live here in chicago and so i am certainly focusing very closely on those lines. But at the end of the day, it is about putting safety first, putting safety of the passengers first. We never want to be in a situation like we were in 9 11. But we absolutely have to understand what are the value add activities that we can do and how we implement those in a way that allows commerce and transportation. Zrou an opinion on what those are . Like what can be done . Have we gone too far . There are people with more information to share with you on that subject, with respect to security. But we have to allow them to shart information in a way that is appropriate and protects all of us. Thank you. Okay, new developments on a high profile Insider Trading case involving Phil Mickelson. The latest next. As we head out, a look at the dow 30 on this down day. 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Whoa go with me now its made for those who vacation like they mean it. Universal orlando resort. Theres a place for vacationers than just a little time off. The ones who choose to go big or stay home. Come with me now. Where every amazing, despicable, wizarding adventure reveals moments that are truly epic. This place is made for those who do more than just vacation. Whoa go with me now its made for those who vacation like they mean it. Universal orlando resort. Welcome back to power lunch. There is new developments at this hour on an Insider Trading case involving Phil Mickelson. Lets get the latest. Also involved here are former dean cr dean foods chairman billy davis and the attorney for the Southern District of new york laid out the scale of what he alleged is a fraud here in terms of Insider Trading. In a press conference in new york a little while ago, heres what he had to say. For over five years, davis repeatedly and systemically fed nonpublic information about dean foods to walters who in turn benefited handsomely to the tune of about 43 million in profits made and in losses avoided. From his trading in dean food stock. Heres what we know. According to documents laid out by the government, the sec earlier today said the charges are against former dean foods chairman thomas davis and billy walters. Davis has pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate. Walters, however, his Attorney Says the accusations are false in this case. Davis is charged with tipping walters off to a spinoff from dean foods of white wave foods and organic entity and other corporate activities. Walters said as you just heard there, to have profited by 32 million. Avoided loss of 11 million. And in the sec documents, they say that professional golfer Phil Mickelson a relief defendant. He generated 931,000 in profits. They want limb to return that money. So were learning a lot more about how auld of this happened. Mickelsons attorney put out a statement in which he said that mickelson was not charged in any wrongdoing here. So that is the latest state of play as we have it right now. A lot of details here. Back to you. Thank you. All right. Lets bring in seth waxman, government investigations and sec enforcement party and john coffee from Colombia University who specializes in securities regulation. All right. Seth, mickelson agreeing to disgorge, give back the profits, paying nearly 1 million. No criminal charges filed. In your opinion, if this is the final outcome, is this the right outcome . Well, i can tell you hes breathing a sigh of relief today. So the right outcome will yet to be determined overall. But for mr. Mickelson, i think giving up the profits and moving on with his life is a result that hes probably more than happy to move forward with. Mickelson is known as a relief defendant. Basically they say, hey, he profited but he probably didnt know the extent at which this walters and the davis from dean foods were talking about the insider information. Do you believe that mickelson is getting off on the right way here . No you, i think this is the short fall of Insider Trading rule because of the newman decision. The newman decision says can you only convict or prosecute a remote tippee which is what mr. Mickelson is if that person knew that the tippee paid some personal benefit to the tipper. He could know its inside information and know its corrupt and know its unlawful but still be immune if he was not aware what benefit was being paid about it tipper to the tippee. And thats really irrelevant to the moral culpability here. And were seeing is another demonstration that although this is very effective prosecution, very good work by the u. S. Attorney and the sec, they cant reach everyone. They dont know basically a irrelevant factor, the presence or absence of a personal benefit. Get into that idea n that case that you referred to came down early last year, everyone said wow you threw a hand grenade in all the prosecutions. If we look at the fact that mickelson owed walters money, i guess walters for lack of a better term was mickelsons bookie. I dont know how else to frame it. The guy calls and says buy this stock. Wouldnt that pass some legal muster as a benefit under the rules of the law . If he doesnt know that there is inside information behind the trade, then there is no liability. But were talking about the new elevated rule that the newman case imposed which says not only do you have to know that this is material, nonpublic information that has been in effect stolen or misappropriated from the company, but that there was a payment made by the tippee to the tipper. I dont think he is being sued for multiple damages as the sec could sue him because there say problem in prove in showing he knew this additional fact. You know, seth, this case today is sort of coming out with a resolution. So were talking about it. It is actually been going on since last year. Last august or july there was talk about mickelson being investigated around dean foods. Why did anything take so long to get here . Take us inside the process. Did they say how did yo