Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160725 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch July 25, 2016

Im michelle carusocabrera, heres whats happening right now. Stocks are trading near their session lows with the dow currently sitting down 99 points. Were going to have full market coverage coming your way. In the meantime, evacuations are under way in california as a Massive Wildfire tears through parts of los angeles county. We are live on the scene ahead. And, take a look live at the floor of the Wells Fargo Center in philadelphia, thats where the Democratic National Convention Kicks off today. Full coverage coming up in just a few minutes. Brian. Well, as you can tell, folks, from michelle and tyler theres a lot going on today including more on this incredible heat wave smacking much of the country. But we begin with apple. And a big call on that stock that is pushing apple shares to session lows, lets get right now to cnbcs josh lipton with more. Josh. Well, brian, thats right. Those apple bulls are getting tougher to find. The reason for the worry, the health of that iphone franchise. Analysts think apple sold 40 million iphones in the june quarter, now, that would mean a drop of about 17 as that Company Struggles with tough comparisons. The question is whether that upcoming iphone 7 can revive growth. Can bgcs Collin Gillis as a skeptic he was just on cnbc talking about why he cut apple to a sell. He does think the upgrade to the iphone 7 could be a disappointment to the street and investors. On the other side of that call though pipers gene monunster thinks the iphone 7 will revive growth. Gene by his count about 65 of apples fans are still using models that are at least two years old. So that is a lot of people waiting for an upgrade. Still investors clearly concerned. Take a look at that chart. That stock now down more than 20 over the past 12 months. Apple is now trading at just about 11 times projected earnings. Thats a big discount we know to the overall market. So is the bad news all priced in we can have a better sense when apple reports tomorrow. Brian, back to you. Josh, before we let you go, apple apparently making a big hire for its hotly rumored car project. What more do we know . Well, brian, you might not know bob mansfield, but you probably know the products he worked on. He worked in cupertino for a long time, joined apple in 99, worked as a stop exec under steve jobs. During his time he led the engineering teams that helped develop a range of products including the ipad, the imac, now an advisor at the Company Since leaving the executive team about three years ago. But now he could be taking on a much bigger challenge according to recent reporting developing that icar. Back to you. Josh, thank you very much. Lets now talk more about that big sell call on shares of apple. Cowen and company does not agree putting out a bullish note on the stock today. Lets bring in the analyst managing director at collin and company. Your response to that cell call. Look, i think that the idea that the upgrade rate for the iphone 7 is going to be the lowest of sort of any model before. Its not new. The install base today is 13 bigger today than it was last year. So even if you had flat units, or, you know, down a bit year over year, the, you know, upgrade rate will be a lot lower than it was last year because the base is just that much bigger. And i also agree with the comment about the installed base. Weve done a lot of work on the installed base. Think about this, if the iphone 7 were flat year over year or even down a bit, you know, year over year versus the iphone 6s, you would have 70 million more phones that are two years older or more this time next year. So either the iphone 7 will sell better than people think, or youre in for a super cycle next year. I think probably both. You know, its interesting because youre not making the most bullish of cases. Youre sort of agreeing with the flat growth. Youre not saying the iphone 7 is going to be a massive hit, and yet, tim, your price target is 28 or 28 more than apples current price. How does it get there . Look, i think that there is so much fear. I talk to investors every single day on this stock. And theres so much fear. Everybody is so worried about iphone 7. I think once you get through iphone 7, and people can take some sigh of relief and even if its down a bit year over year, i mean, look at the number of phones theyre building year over year. It is down. It isnt down much, but it is down a bit. If you look at where the street numbers are set, the street numbers are pretty much already there. So i think all you need to do is get through this sort of launch quarter where people can take a sigh of relief and say that wasnt a total mess. And then you can begin to look forward to what people are increasingly going to agree, i think, that youll have a, you know, super cycle next year for iphone. You have this aging installed base compared against a really cool new phone. The super cycle happens because of a new phone thats going to come next year . We got to wait one more year . Is that the idea . Yeah. I think youre going to get iphone 7 because of the dynamics in the base. I think the iphone 7 will sell a little better ultimately than people think. And also look at the street numbers. To say theyre going to sell 40 million this quarter thats no big deal to guide into that and street sitting at them selling 44 Million Units for the september quarter, thats not a huge number either. So i think the numbers are really set okay right now. Untangle me here. The iphone 7 you expect to come out this fall, and then a subsequent iteration next fall . Is that what youre say sing . Thats right. Normal launch iphone 7 this year. It will look a bit different and radically different phone next year. Thats my question, what is going to be different and compelling, in other words, going to get me off the couch and into an apple store or into a Verizon Store to buy the iphone 7 . I mean, what is the difference here other than maybe some processing speed or whatever . Whats going to be the compelling attribute . Well, i would say first of all you have to think this is the first phone launch where you have this aging install base dynamic. There are a host of people, i still have an iphone s, not that im a prime example, but i do, there are a host of people now sitting there two years or more older. You have this big bubble of people who bought the iphone 6, a lot of those battery phones is now going into decline. These people are really going to be forced into an upgrade pretty soon. The iphone 7 really, i think, that one of the big issues with the iphone 6s is that it didnt look different. So a chinese buyer didnt want to buy it because it didnt look different. The iphone 7 will look a little bit different. So i think there will be no home button. Theyre using force touch. So these things, i think, are going to get at least chinese buyers and even some of the folks here into stores. And, you know, it is this installed base issue i keep talking about. Correct me if im completely off base on this, i see your price target is 125 a share which is up from what is it now 97 or thereabouts. Thats a nice move, a 25 or so move. Am i right in observing that analysts like you with price targets that those price targets on apple seem to have come down . That they used to be 200 a share or 175 and theyve compressed a little . Is that a fair observation or not, quickly, tim . Well, sure, i think it is. But i was never in that camp. I was one of the first guys to basically downgrade the stock back last year. I mean, sure, i think the targets have come down. But look, to believe apple can get to 125 12 months from now, i think youll see it. All right. Tim, thank you very much. We appreciate youre being with us. Lets go to news for the bond market right now and dominic chu is tracking the demand for the latest twoyear notes. First in a series of auctions this week, results from that 26 billion auction of the twoyear treasury notes. The yield 76 basis points, 0. 76 . The big news here though the bidtocover ratio, thats a measure of demand coming in at 2. 52. Thats well below the recent ten auction average of 2. 96 in other words 2. 52 worth of bids every bond at auction well below average. Thats the weakest by the way since december of 2008. Indirect bids people look at this just under 30 , thats a group that includes foreign Central Banks well below the recent average there as well. Same deal for direct bids. Well watch this and of course we have other auction ths week. 34 billion of fiveyears and 28 billion of seven notes up for auction later this week, guys. Got it, dom. T minus three hours until the Democratic National Convention Kicks off in philadelphia. Its already been a dramatic 24 hours for the democrats. Lets get to our own john harwood live in philly. John. Michelle, you know, Debbie Wasserman schultz has resigned as chairwoman of the Democratic Party effective at the end of the convention, but she is still scheduled to gavel the proceedings into order this afternoon at 4 00. And the question is whether this appearance this morning before the florida delegation is going to be a preview of that. Debbie Wasserman Schultz was booed by the delegation in her own state. Democrats do not want that to happen any more than republicans wanted it to happen last week. So some democrats have started openly suggesting that she defer her opportunity to do that and leave the convention. Dont know if shes going to take that advice. For his part Bernie Sanders who was defeated by Hillary Clinton for the nomination indicated that he is going to do his part to bring the party together. Right now what we have got to focus on as democrats is the feeding of perhaps the worst republican candidate i have seen in my lifetime, donald trump would be a disaster for this country. He must be defeated. Weve got to elect secretary clinton. Now, democrats have got a big lineup for the most watched 10 00 to 11 00 p. M. Hour tonight. Michelle obama, the first lady is going to speak. Shes broadly popular within the party. Then elizabeth warren, the pop e louse hero. And then Bernie Sanders will try to rally supporters behind Hillary Clinton. Well see whether he can do that. There are a lot of bernie protesters outside this hall. John, thank you so much. The other big news is Hillary Clinton announcing who her running mate would be. No surprise she chose to introduce him, tim kaine, in florida, since its one of the most pivotal swing states in this election and has voted for the winning president in the past five elections dating back to bill clintons reelection in 1996. Joining us now is a florida delegate. And hes also the miami beach mayor, philip levine, good to have you here, sir. Thank you. Were you at that meeting this morning with Debbie Wasserman schultz the florida delegation . I sure was. Let me tell you something, i know it makes great tv but the fact of the matter is you had a few Bernie Sanders people disgruntled, a few donald trump people, but they were unified, ready to go to elect secretary clinton. So you werent one of the ones yelling shame on you and you rigged the election . Absolutely not. Debbie Wasserman Schultz is wildly popular in south florida. Shes done a great job. And shes unified the party. I mean look whats going on in the Republican Party how ununified that was with that ted cruz thing. Lets talk about gop chairman priebus but, sir, when she takes the stage are you not worried that the number of bernie supporters we know showing up for the full convention that shes not going to be booed even louder . Michelle, tonight youre going to see the beginning of an incredible unification. Corey booker, senator warren, michelle obama, senator sanders, its coming together. By the way, its not nick at night like you saw last week, its in black and white. This is going to be in color. Youre not going to have antonio sobado jr. And chachi. Is somebody going to get slimed if youre making ni nickelodeon references . I was waiting to see the blob last week. Who all screech . Of course. You dont think Debbie Wasserman schultz should step down now . Stick it out for the whole convention . The party will make that decision. But i want to know what you think. Unifying a party together, now is time for change and i think the partys already made that decision. But what youre going to see is moving the country forward, not going backwards that we saw with donald trump. Listen, they want to elect a fake billionaire, they got themselves a fake billionaire as their nominee. And you know on a business channel this guy aint a billionaire. Were showing al franken right now, he used to be on tv too. He never claimed to be a billionaire. Do you have a question . Well, i was going to say, listen, philip, i understand your support, time of unity, i get it, ra, ra, the pompoms, on both sides, but you have leaks that somehhow the party basical conspired we have the russian we dont know that. Oh, yes it is. How do you know . The fbi is already doing an investigation. Many experts the russians who leaked it . Im not saying the Trump Campaign was involved in that. Of course we know that putin wants donald trump as the next president because hes going to dismantle nato. If you were putin wouldnt you want donald trump . I would. Youre not saying but it sounds like youre saying trump and putin conspired to hack into the dnc. No, im saying dismantle nato. God forbid Donald Trumps the next president , europe will not be safe next summer. Is it safe now, sir . Its safe now. Europe is safe now . 37 attacks. Go on a cruise ship. The way to go. Huge number of attacks in the last 37 days. Well, if you look at the actual over the periods of 1945 weve seen a tremendous, tremendous reduction in crime, terrorism. Of course the last spike youve seen in iraq in nigeria, in syria, that is a spike we did see at the end. But the fact of the matter is the facts are the facts. Unemployment over 5 , under 10 before president obama took office. Mr. Mayor, if i could ask you this, listen, the rnc, the establishment lost, donald trump got the head of the ticket. At the dnc, the establishment won. Youve won the battle. Are you convinced Hillary Clinton is the person that can win you the war . If we were looking right now for ceo of the United States of america, we would hire secretary clinton for the job. We wouldnt hire the fraudulent fake billionaire. Thats for sure. Mr. Mayor, were going to leave it there. Thank you so much. Miami beach mayor philip levine. That was spirited. Listen, i wouldnt mind he had it. It was a lot of unity and stuff like that. Were dpoing to talk more by the way about this alleged russian hack later on in the show. It is not proved. The hack is believed to have happened, but the connection from the hack several weeks ago to it being leaked to wikileaks, theres no proof of that. But if Vladimir Putin wants to call in, im sure we could make arrangearrangements. Weve got russian speakers waiting on the line. Crude oil hitting a threemonth low briefly dipping below 43 per barrel. Crude oil at 43. 08 right now. That could be bringing down the whole stock market. All right. Dont bet on this chart staying the same Going Forward. Nerves may be down since the brexit vote, but our next guest says they are ready to make a comeback, but how you can embrace it and invest in it. Straight ahead. They may want the latest products and services, but they demand the best shopping experiences. Theyre your customers. And by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u. S. Retailers meet their demands with more responsive retail models. Ones that transcend channels and locations, anticipate expectations. Creating new ways to engage at every imaginable touchpoint. Its a new day in retail, and together, were building the store of the future. Digital works for retail. Lets talk about how digital works for your business. Lets look at where the markets are right now. Dow industrials off about half a percent. Oil moving lower, Energy Stocks moving lower pulling the industrials with it. Nasdaq down about 0. 25 . S p 500 down again about 0. 5 . Roughly the same as the industrials. So the blue chips moving lower faster than nasdaq. Market is up about 3 , however, since the postbrexit vote losses. Despite the move head of strategy for usi shares expects volatility to continue for the rest of the year. Heidi, welcome. Good to have you with us. You think volatility is going to come back, i guess. I do. If we look at the volatility of the First Quarter, it was enormous. If we look at the brexit and the volatility around the brexit as michelle mentioned 37 attacks in europe and the u. S. Election of course coming this fall. I do think were likely to experience more volatility even janet yellen in her four speeches mentioned uncertainty 37 times. I may be one of three investors, lets just sort of hypothesize here. Somebody wants to avoid volatility, get it away from me, i want to invest to do that. Number two, i want to manage it. I want to sort of take advantage of it to the extent i can, but not let it dominate my investment thesis. And then third, to embrace it. Take advantage of it. How do i do each, heidi . Yeah, at blackrock thats the way we dimensionalize risk. We think of volatility for those who cant stomach any market equity volatility we suggest having low correlating assets to the equity market, things like our gourd portfolio or looking at treasurietreasuries. For those that know they will outlive their money if they dont have some equity market exposure, i think having exposure to low volatility or minimum volatility type strategies where they can limit some of that downside volatility makes a lot of sense. Those would be examples examples of that would be . Yeah, so thinking about usmv, which is our u. S. Minimum volatility portfolio. We have a suite of minimum volatility portfolios based on the emerging market index, u. S. Index, the historical msci developed exp

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