Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160901 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch September 1, 2016

Now. The dow the s p and the nasdaq very little change, maybe a. 1 or two down. Also on our radar, walmart, reportedly cutting 7,000 back office jobs nationwide that stock is ticking up a bit. Tropical storm hermine bearing down on the gulf coast. Could make land fall by toonnig. Welcome everybody, guy adami is joining us for the two hours of power today. Were following a story out of Cape Canaveral florida. Lets go live to the cape with the latest. Reporter hey, brian, take a look behind me, its overcast because of that Tropical Storm thats making its way to florida. You can still see the smoke billowing out from the space x falcon 9 rocket that exploded earlier today on Cape Canaveral air force space station launch pad 40. The falcon 9 was scheduled to take the satellite launch to take it into orbit this saturday at 3 00 a. M. That satellite was manufactured by Israeli Aerospace industries. But facebook had a 95 million deal to use it over five years for internet. Org. This would have marked facebooks first foray into using satellites to beam down internet. Facebook is saying we are quote, disappointed by the loss but remain committed to our mission of connecting people to the internet around the world. Space kprvex saying there was a anomaly during a test launch. There were no injuries, this would have marked space xs ninth launch this year alone. It would have been the largest pay load to date for the space x falcon 9 rocket. This is a set back for the company, including that planned falcon launch in california in coming weeks. Guys, back over to you. Morgan, thanks so much. Todays explosion the latest headache in what has been a rough week for elon musk, shares of tesla are down 7. 5 this week alone. I think a lot of people will look at this and say is this going to slow down tesla, everything thats going on with the proposed merger with solar city. No. Keep in mind that elon musk while he is the leader of space x as well as tesla and hes the chairman at solar city, theres no cross pollination in terms of the financials between space x and tesla. So theres no implication there. Now, you can make an argument perhaps hell be distracted in terms of certain things he was planning to do with tesla, for example, the autopilot update we were expecting yesterday after he tweeted out but we havent received yet. Otherwise you cannot look at this and say theres a Financial Link between the two of them. Make no mistake, tesla has its own issues this week, especially when you look at the cash crunch the company is facing, we talked yesterday about this. They had an s4 filing yesterday. And they said look, we will need to do some kind of a capital raise, whether its equity, debt, whether its a combination of both. Heres why. They ended the Second Quarter 3. 25 billion in liquidity. Look at the expenditures that have happened or will happen in the second half of the year. The cash cushion could be down as low as 400 million and thats the reason why you will see tesla at some point in the second half of this year go to the equity and debt markets or both of them together and raise capital because theyve got the expansion of their Production Facility as they get ready for the model three. Theyve also got a giga factory. Theyve got a lot of Capital Expenditures out there in addition to overall expenditures that will be increasing and debt thats going to be increasing with the solar city merger. At the end of the day, i know some people want to talk about whats happening with space x, but tesla, its in own separate entity right now. What seemed to be so interesting in terms of what came out of that filing is the notion that the Capital Markets are largely shut off from solar city. And that 15 Institutional Investors refuse to invest then we find out elon musk and his two cousins buy out the next week. That seems to be what is pulling the stock down today. I think everybodys looking at the debt equity ratio thats going to be in place at this company once its all said and done. Lets be clear here, as much as tesla is a cult stock and the people who invest in tesla. Im talking about the Retail Investors who we hear about on twitter and social media. As much as they love tesla, im not sure how many of them are looking at the implications in terms of the dilution of those shares and they have to raise more money. This something weve been talking about and the debt to equity ratio, its about 146 . For solar city, 377 . Sounds like japan and argentina back and forth. Its interesting, you know, i tried to be bullish on tesla and its been right for long time and its been wrong recently. A lot of people made compelling arguments to get out of the long shares last night. Dei dan nathan being one of them. The last thing they needed today with headlines about the rocket, obviously down 4 . Looks like to me now, and im a bull in tesla. It looks like the 180 level we traded down earlier this year is right in the crosshairs. Stay right there. For more on tesla and auto sales in general lets bring in the former vice chairman of gm. Lets move aside from tesla. An Interesting Company and stock, i mean, theyre a fraction of the u. S. Car industry. I dont want to say irrelevant, but theyre not far off that in terms of volume. Whats your take on car sales generally . Some said they didnt come in as good as expected. They still looked good, whats your take . I think what were seeing is the industry leveling off at a very high level. The Economic Indicators for the rest of the year is still good. 17 million industry, if it remains there, is very, very healthy. August did show industry wide, not General Motors, General Motors was the opposite. But industry wide an increase in fleet sales and a decrease in retails. Thats never really a good sign because it means that theyre making the numbers, but the quality of the sales are not a good as they should be. I had kind of a it thought this morning, which is always terrifying, bob, tell me if you think this is okay or total bunk. We, not cnbc, but the industry has been measuring car sales forever by the amount of cars we sell every year, 16 million, 17 million. I thought maybe thats a stupid way to do it. Because hear me out a cars are lasting longer than ever. 100,000 miles, ten years thats nothing these days. B, cars are now so expensive that we cant expect people to buy the same number of cars as they have in the past. Should we change the way we look at car sales to be more focused on profitability and revenue rather than just how many . Well, thats certainly what gm is doing. Gm no longer really cares that much about market share. They dont care about fleet sales. General motors fleet is way, way down. Its probably the lowest percentage of any major producer and General Motors average transaction prices are now 6,000 per unit above the industry average. Thats the new focus of gm, gm continues to be highly profitable. And i expect that to continue as long as the industry remains at about 15 or 16 million units. Youre absolutely right. Ive always been against looking at the aggregate industry. You can maintain the aggregate industry numbers by forcing high incentives doing lots of fleet sales, lots of subsidized lease and all kinds of practices which give you Sales Numbers, but they dont give you any profitability. Hey, phil, when i was looking at the auto Sales Numbers what surprised me, maybe not a surprise to you. The number one selling model the f 150 for ford. August of last year was a huge month for all of the automakers, 6 is a comparison of august of this year with august of last year which was a huge year. One other interesting note about auto sales, guys, look at what the sedan sales are for the major automakers this year. Ford down 27 . Nissan down 25. 5 . Toyota down 11. 2 . Theyre skewing heavily towards trucks. Their car sales are down, too. We could see in august for the First Time Ever in the u. S. , car sales im not talking about overall auto sales, car sells relative to truck and suvs, only being 40 or less than 40 . Who drives cars anymore, bob . Well, thats the point. The crossover, which is, you know, Sport Utility shaped, but is based on a car platform and every manufacturer now has at least five or six in their program that has become the new family sedan. And the old three box sedan as we know it, low, and with a hood a roof and a deck is definitely on its way out. So i think every manufacturer is going to start cutting back on those. And the crossover vehicle is the new norm. Closely followed by pickup trucks and the enormously profitable full sized sport utilities. Its scary these days. Im sorry . If youre not five feet up in the air off the road its scary because everyone else is. Thats true. If you look at it as the crossover vehicle, whether its all wheel drive or front wheel drive only from a Space Utilization standpoint, really makes a lot of sense. They have a rear hatch, many have three rows of seats, the seats can be folded down. You can move large objects. They really are a much more intelligent form of transportation than four door sedans and coupes are. Theyre more profitable for the automakers theyre far more profitable than the car. With the exception of luxury sedans. The typical run of the mill, chevy or ford sedan, the crossover is far more profitable than the typical sedan. Not to mention full sized trucks and sport utilities where the profitability is off the chart. We got to leave it there. We have breaking news. Thanks so much. Lets go straight to Morgan Brennan, Cape Canaveral. More details coming from elon musk via twitter. Reporter thats right. So elon musk chiming in on the space x explosion that happened. The space station there earlier today, so musk tweeting, loss of falcon vehicle doing during propellant fill operation, originated around upper stage oxygen tank, cause still unknown, more soon. Musk is the founder and ceo of space x, again, we saw this rocket explosion this morning. Here just behind me, its a bit overcast but you can still see the smoke billowing up. Back over to you. Morgan, thank you. Morgan brennan, Cape Canaveral. Turning to apple tim cook says he plans to bring back billions to the United States. He told an ireland station that the e. U. Bill is total crap. Here to join us is our own john fort. Jimmy, ill start with you. Why do you think more u. S. Companies will bring back cash now, even if the tax code doesnt make that palatable . I dont know if tim cook was Crystal Clear that hes going to bring back that cash no matter what. No matter what happens if we have a status quo. I think what he was doing was making it very Crystal Clear to lawmakers in washington that that money will come home. Theyre very willing to bring it home. Every dollar europe gets will be a dollar they dont get. With any sort of regionable i think any kind of reasonable tax reform, that money is coming back. Of course lawmakers are dying to get their hands on whether for Infrastructure Spending or other things. He said theres a huge incentive for not only tax reform but any other kind of pressure washington can put on europe diplomatly to ea diplomatlyicical diplomatlyicically. Apples explanation to europe to why theyre not getting more tax dollars, this money is ear marked for the United States. In the u. S. When there was pressure around apple paying taxes the focus was on revenue. The revenue is made overseas, it seems like theres a big pile of money and somebodys got to end up with tax revenue from it. You know, i try today raise this with people who is things from apples point of view. Once this starts getting paid out one way or another, the conversation takes a turn. He definitively say 2017. He seems eager to get this resolved one way or the other. Hes been meet ing with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. Who knows if he feels that perhaps the political environment is such that one way or another it will be easier. Were fighting between europe and the u. S. Remember what pngs beauty business did a few years ago, it moved to sing more. How could we forget . Whats to stop singapore or malaysia to come in and say, really youre just a tax stop here anyway. Come on over to singapore well give you 3 for the next 30 years. Theres nothing stopping that from happening, ultimately were talking about a mailing address. Its a Great American company, brian. It cant go overseas, its the essential american tech giant. Capital will go where its welltreated. And thats something lawmakers have to be aware of. You need to have a hospitable tax and regulatory environment. And i think its time that washington does that. Washington is moving slower now than european bureaucrats and tim cook said, listen, well bring it back theres going to be a reasonable tax code. I get what youre saying about the Great American company. Thats ironic giving apples keeping 231 billion in cash overseas because they dont want to pay Great American taxes. Its willing to pay taxes. Not as much, exactly. Among advanced economies. I mean, who can blame them, really . 40 , there are very few people that argue 40 makes a lot of sense. Its a difference between a few single digit points between what the republicans and the democrats are saying would make sense. But apple is in a unique situation also, because tim cook has already testified in front of congress saying we dont play these games as far as where were trying to domicile and those sorts of things. Hes taken what he believes to be the high road, so hes got to pay out one way or the other. He said to europe most recently this is ear marked for the u. S. Does this matter to apple where it pays its taxes . I dont know if this is an apple story. The stock says its not a story. The stock hasnt moved. Whats the story . I think the story is, heres a company that made a deal with a sovereign nation 10, 15 years ago that was in the best interest of ireland and apple and somebody comes in from 30,000 feet and says this doesnt work anymore. It would be fine if they said Going Forward from here no more. You cant say that something ill say one other thing. If im ireland im saying why do we need to be in the e. U. I understand it was easier for england to leave, youve got to believe this is another domino did you i did its great looking shirt, by the way. Big tech versus regulators, if youre going to get driverless cars, no matter who you are youll have to work with regulators in big countries, you dont want to tick them off. Good point, thank you. The childrens song says three is the magic number. But not for the fed. They no doubt have our magic number. And tomorrows jobs number may push them to raise rates after the september 21st meeting. Do they have one, if so, what is the magic number . Steve leishman is with us to find out. Theres no one road out there. No one surface. No one speed. No one way of driving on each and every road. But there is one car that can conquer them all. The mercedesbenz cclass. Five driving modes let you customize the steering, shift points, and suspension to fit the mood youre in. And the road youre on. The 2016 cclass. Starting at 38,950. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Nomy favorite parted adjustable base, is to be able to lift your legs up a little bit, and it feels like im just cradled. Change your sleep, change your life. Change to tempurpedic. Now thru september 11th, upgrade and save on select tempurpedic mattresses and adjustable bases. [ clock titime. ] you only have so much. Thats why we want to make sure you wont have to wait on hold. And you wont have to guess when well turn up. Because after all we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. All right. Welcome back. We are now less than 24 hours away from the latest monthly jobs number. If the fed is hanging its policy making hat on the august jobs figure, then is there a magic number that would get them to force their hand. Steve leishman is here. You know the song i referred to. Three is the it was a school house rock. I didnt know that. Once again, brian you are in your own particularly place right there. I know youre happy. Thats what you call it . That word may not be the perfect word. Talk about the perfect number, first what the number is going to be for jobs and second whats that minimum number that would be okay for the fed to still hike and one that might force their hand. Heres the data were looking for. 180 is the consensus estimate. The Unemployment Rate ticking down to 4. 9 to 4. 8. Average hourly wages up. 2 . And 180 is the estimate. It could be and im going from what ive heard, is 150 is enough for the fed to hike. 200 may force their hand. Thats all if the other data cooperate. Which is didnt today. A funny thing happened on a way to a hike. The ism put out a lousy manufacturing number. Tim cook might have another name for that. The sector showed declines in production and employment. I dont think its enough by itself to derail the fed if jobs are strong. It does give pause and if other data confirm a broader economic slow down well be talking about the probability of a december, not a september hike. What are the data points exists between jobs report and the actual meeting . Got to have inflation numbers, durable goods numbers. Do you think any of those will be the ones to offset are you going to beach this weekend . Think of like, a wave. If theres a preponderance of data, a wave of data that give you a tenor to the data of one way or the other. The fed will, i think take note of that. I think they want a hike. I think the balance is more towards doing the quarter point but theyre not going to do it in the face of obvious economic weakness. Larry sumers make a comment i was puzzled by. The fed loses credibility with their hawkish tone. I would think it was completely the opposite. Where do you sort of stand on that . To me, if they dont move in september or december theyve lost any semblance of credibility they have

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