Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160913 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch September 13, 2016

February. Some good news, america, median Household Incomes rising for the first time in eight years. Now stand at 56,500 per home. Unfortunately, as melissa noted, median investments are likely down a bit today. Stocks are getting whacked as we head deeper into the trading day. The dow is down 1. 5 . That would be pretty big slide for the dow. And volatility has really ramped up in the last couple of days, your story, though, once again, maybe oil. Crude could be a cause. Crude oil is down nearly 3 . Lets get more now on this market. Bob pisani on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Starting to get a couple of calls from friends and family and random strangers. What is going on with the market. Is it oil . Is it trump . Is it the fed or, is it, d, all of the above . A little bit all of the above but largely on the fed and what the fed is going to do next week, even though the chance is 25 , thats what the market says, people down here dont believe that. Take a look at where we are in terms of sectors here. 90 downside, 90 of the stocks traded are traded to the downside today. And the volume is worse overall. Energy, materials and industrials, general risk off in that area. But whole market is generally weak. Two stories, Interest Rates and oil, take a look at the tenyear, we have been talking about this for the last hour here. Tenyear yields moving up rather dramatically. This started happening at about the time paul singer from elliott started speaking at delivering alpha saying that tenyear yields, tenyear treasuries, 30 year, not safe havens, a tremendous amount of risk. Bill miller said short the ten year, that was one of his ideas presented. You can see the yields moving up. Normally this would help bank stocks, but thats not happening today. Thats why im saying a general risk off day. None of the banks have risen as the tenyear yield has risen. Normally they would do better. Also hurting, interest sensitive stocks, further weakened as that news came out. Reits, utilities, telecom, all the Interest Rate sensitive groups to the downside. The real catalyst for the weakness early on was in the energy group. The iea coming out saying the world is adequately supplied with oil and concerns that demand may be lower than anticipated next year, particularly in china and india. All of the big global names here, totals, ne, british petroleums, chevron, all moving down here, a little worse than the overall market. Overall, lets call it the s p 500 yoyoing. And brian and everybody, this has everybody a little bit concerned here. Today, markets now 1. 5 . Yesterday, up 1. 5 . Friday, down 2. 5 . What happened is a lot of questions about the feds intentions and, guys, i think for the next seven or eight days, well have to get used to a lot of volatility until we find out exactly what is going on. There you go. Last few days for the s p. Buckle up. Bob, thank you. Bob pisani. Biggest power players on wall street making huge headlines at this years delivering alpha conference. Michelle cruisia e carusocabr there. We heard big ideas and lots of fearful phrases and words like dangerous and scary to describe the market Monetary Policy and the economy. What is it like down there . Dangerous and scary. Dangerous and really frightening. I would say, michelle, that as compared with prior years, the tone is a little darker. It may just be the accident of casting that a couple of the presenters this morning come from a darker place, but there was more, i would say, concern about where Interest Rates have been. Right. And where theyre going, especially when you look at what is happening just in the ten year today and what we have been talking about for the last couple of days. We have people here who have long predicted there was a turn coming in the credit markets, and the conference happens to come this week when were asking that question again, but dangerous and scary, interesting when stock markets are near record highs. Yeah. Yeah. Despite todays selloff, markets have been very good, a quiet summer until the last few days basically. One of the biggest players here is Bridgewater Associates ray dalio, sounding the alarm today, about what is happening with credit and the state of the debt cycle right now. There is only so much you can squeeze out of a debt cycle. And were there globally. Were there. He went on to say in his opinion the fed is put ing way too much emphasis on the Business Cycle and not enough on the debt cycle. Investors look at the price move as well as the carry. We go through these cycles where the carry gets all the attention and then youre squeezing a little bit of carry out of it. And at the price is not against you. Thats a dangerous situation. Because the carry can be disappeared in a price move of a day. Yeah, so once again, concerns about what is going on in the credit markets. That was a theme picked up by paul singer a few minutes later. He comes at it from a slightly different perspective, but hes no less alarmed, talking about how were in the middle of some basically a 40year experiment with how much leverage the system can maintain and where exactly we are on it. If you read between the lines, he doesnt think it is going to end well, he concluded his presentation today by saying that his single best idea is to avoid what he sees as the worst idea, the worst idea being owning longterm g7 government securities. Ten years, 30 years. He says sell them. Yeah. And, of course, dalio disagreeing very vocally and directly with jamie dimon who said just yesterday that there is a need right now to raise rates. But the interesting corollary to the comments is his trade, this and is to be long gold because he sees it as being undervalued asset right now despite the run it has had. Thats he talked about that. I thought what was also interesting in the context of the larger conversation, melissa, was bill miller also saying that he sees the treasury markets as being so overpriced and overvalued at this point, that there was another market just similar to what we heard from the other investors this morning, that would be the one thing, he liked the s p, long the s p, short treasuries. He was so clear in his conviction on that. And a lot of smart people girks with a lot of money that feel the same way. I would remind the dalios and singers and everybody else of the world, no matter how big they are, the Central Banks are bigger. If they want to go against that train, that could be a risky trade because we can print money and we can buy forever and by we, i mean the Federal Reserve, the bank of japan, the ecb, you know, im not sure, even with their brains and their cash that i would go against that train because many a bystander has been run over. Yeah, for sure. But what has come up lately and we heard this from peter bookmar on friday, have the Central Banks lost control, especially of that long end of the curve, even when theyre in there, doing everything they can to manipulate markets, does it start to move against them as we have started to see maybe the long end of the curve. Another big theme has been wells fargo and what has been going on there. Jack lew going after the bank for creating those phony accounts for customers. What ive seen from what they have done is it is bad behavior, they were correct to take action against, and how that flows through in terms of next consequences is going to depend on the facts of the case. What i can tell you is there is a lot of talk in washington these days about rolling back dodd frank, about rolling back the law, changing the law that created the agency that uncovered and took action against this. This ought to be a moment when people stop and remember how dangerous this system is when you dont have the proper protections in place. This is something that our watchdogs found, if they werent there, they would still be going on. Im going to digress for just a second before we scroll forward here to say that mr. Lew had one perspective on dodd frank and regulation. His predecessor Timothy Geithner looked at it a different way. He said some of the rules, while not addressing wells fargo specifically, that some of the rules that have been written on the back of the dodd frank law have been a mess, he would like to see them untangled. Secretary lew also had this to say about the possibility of criminal prosecution against wells fargo. We have made clear we dont believe that anyone is too big to jail. It is up to prosecutors to decide how you pursue the criminal charges. It is not up to regulators or policymakers. What i can say is that the pattern of behavior that we have seen here is something that needs to stop. You know, we will hear much more about wells fargo tonight. Jim cramer will sit down with the ceo of wells, john stumpf at 6 00 p. M. Eastern here on cnbc. Before that, of course, much more from delivering alpha including your luncheon sitdown with mark lasry and barry sternly. Well talk about the markets and what theyre investing in now, how theyre trying to deliver alpha and mark has rlas decided not to be in hedge fund anymore, make money on the shortterm. Can i ask my esteemed colleagues a question. Something i was thinking about with wells fargo, comment and question to you. Comment is this, with all due respect to the treasury secretary, dodd frank has a lot more to do with Derivatives Trading than opening up checking accounts. That said, 5300 people were willing and able to do something unethical. Do you guys feel that im not defending wells fargo in any way but i do wonder, if you got 5,000 plus employees who are willing to step over an ethical and or legal line, is that a wells fargo issue or is that a humanity issue . I think they were incentivized in a way that would suggest it was a culture of yeah, i think it is reflective of the culture of the bank. I think the culture put such pressure and incentives on the kind of cross selling going on, i think the question is, you know, at what point whether it is volkswagen or wells fargo or any of these any institution that engages in some sort of consumer fraud, at what point do you climb up the tree and actually exact either civil or criminal penalties against individual higher ups in the company. Agree. Agree. Volkswagen was that, to me, brian, is the only way that you bring this kind of behavior to that you can arrest it. Okay. Intentional word choice. Right. Great interview tonight. Much more from delivering alpha, of course, later on, guys. Thanks. You bet. Also some big by the way, before we get to the next segment, they have to clear the set so we had to go, you get my point, which is that vw was a couple of people. Very high level executives, some engineers. Im just saying, 5,000 people 5,000 individuals, thats the size of a small town. I am not going to defend any of the people at wells fargo who engaged, but we dont know the extent. Some people are countersuing wells fargo over wrongful dismissal. So we dont really know exactly what happened, if it is 5 ,000 people or fewer than 5,000 people, more than 5,000 people. We dont know. It is a problem. It is a problem with people being incented in the wrong way and willing to step over the like in order to boost their own competition. Thats a larger problem. We saw that not going to indict 5,300 people. If there is that many people willing to do that who are allegedly willing to do that, yes. Thats not just a wells fargo problem, i guess is the bigger thing. Big stock calls also at delivering alpha. To dominic chu with some of the movers from our conference. So, a lot of interesting calls coming out of this best ideas panel from delivering alpha. Were going to start off with bill miller, famed investment manager, used to run mason value. He recommends go long stocks. S p in general. And short the ten year treasury note. We heard bob pisani mentioning that yields, by the way, on the rise, and the highest levels we have seen since prebrexit. Something to watch there. As for individual names and how they go, miller likes valeant and amazon. Com. He says valeant is one of the b new management team. And expects amazon to grow after comparing it to tech giants like facebook and google as they attack that ever growing ad market. He and his presentation he had an interesting thing to say about the airlines, he said theyre quote unquote stupidly cheap. Moving to impalas robert bishop, his call is tech resources. Those shares have gained about 300 over the course of the past year. Bishop says there is still room for growth based on things among others like demand from china. And finally, jim chanos, noted short seller here, reiterating his bearish view on tesla. He called teslas proposed merger with solar city, quote unquote, the height of folly, pointing to the electric carmakers reluctance solar city financing while the merger is pending. Well keep our eyes on any other mentions by any of these panelists with regard to stocks in the news. Back over to you. Thank you very much, dom. Were all over this market selloff. Look at the s p 500 heat map. Apple is leading the s p 500. One of the only stocks out there in the green on the s p as well as on the dow. Keep in mind, this is all about Interest Rates. Keep a watch on the tenyear yield, highest level since june 23rd. 1. 74 . Were also seeing a rise in the german tenyear bund. Watch that bond market, it is leading the market selloff. Power lunch is back in two. Shares of well fargo under pressure for the Third Straight negative day, the bank facing more fallout from revelations that the employees offered fraudulent customer accounts. Eric wasser is managing director and bank analyst with guggenheim securities, a hold rating on wells fargo, even prior to the developments. Welcome to the show. Thank you for having me. Im curious, i know youre a bank analyst, do you follow what is going on in the Pharmaceuticals Industry and the biotech industry . You see the venom with which these Congress People go after the Drug Companies for raising prices and doing wrong to u. S. Consumers. Do you not think that there is some lessons to be applied here to wells fargo as well . Well, certainly if you look at the wivitriol directed at bas from policymakers and regulator out of the 2008, 2009 time frame does not suggest that continued bad acts such as this one will be, you know, received with anything less than a high degree of scrutiny and anger. So is there risk to the downside here for wells fargo . I know you have a hold rating on this stock. Your opinion on the stock hasnt changed on a fundamental basis. But were in a political firestorm, where congress is incented to go after quote unquote, bad actors in the system perceived to be doing wrong against ordinary individuals out there and calling on the ceo to report to capitol hill on the 21st. Yeah, it is certainly not good news for the company, and i think that the question that it raises is what was the compliance and oversight structure like that allowed this scale of this kind of act to occur. And then secondly, as im sure youve seen, the Company Announced that it is getting rid of certain sales incentives and what the Financial Impact of that might be. How common is this compensation practice across wall street . Should other banks be looking over their shoulder thinking, we should realign our compensation pretty quick because theyre going to come knocking on our doors. Well, i think generally speaking the idea of selling more product resulting in incentive compensation is pretty standard. I think what stood out about this is that wells fargo outpaced so many of its peers by such a large margin, it was considered so far superior and i think clearly this suggests that at least some of that growth was perhaps ill gained. I know, because, eric, again, were not trying to indict wells fargo, any of the people or any other banks, did you hear my previous comments before the commercial break . I did indeed. So, mike, my point, maybe i did not make it clearly on the air was if you got 5,000 people that are willing to cross an ethical and or legal line, i find that very difficult to believe it is purely a wells fargo issue because youre hiring all across america in different towns, different states, different types of people, do you think that this is a problem across a number of banks . I cant imagine wells fargo got the only 5,000 people willing to do this in america. Yeah. I mean, that is certainly possible. I think the interesting thing about this is that while it was 5,000 people it was 5,000 people in one Single Market in california who are all under the same leadership. And so clearly suggests that the issue was a little more localized than general. All right, eric, well leave it there. Thanks for your time. Thank you. Be sure to tune into mad money tonight. Jim cramer has an exclusive with wells fargo ceo john stumpf. The jury is in, do critics like the new iphone 7 . Do you care what influential critics think . Fire up the wireless headphones, america. Were talking apple next. Hey, jesse. Who are you . Im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. Orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. Over time, your moy could multiply. Hello, all of you. Get organized at voya. Com. Enepeople want power. Hallenge. And power plants account for more thaa third of energyrelated carbon emissions. The challenge is to capture the emissions beforeheyre released to the atmosphere. Exxonmobil is a leader in carbon capture. Our team is working to make this technology better, more affordable so it can reduce emissions around the world. Thats what were working on right now. Energy lives here. Look at the market selloff we have on our hands. Firmly in the red, off session lows now, s p 500 off of session lows by about 9 points here. 1. 33 is the loss on the s p. Look at the tlt. We have been saying this for the entire hour so far, that it is in the bond market, were seeing the most pressure. We have got the tlt, etf that tracks the longer end of the yield curve bonds down by 1. 13 . And the tenyear yield hitting highs not seen since june 3rd, 1. 74 . So, again, this is all about the bond market, and what is going on, not just here in the United States, but also around the world, also german bunds, tenyear bund reaching yields prebrexit level. To dom chu now. Those arent some of the only casualties in the market. If you look at Consumer Discretionary stocks, the financials, and health care, theyre all now negative on the year to date basis. Those three drifting to the downside. Health care down by the most this year. 2016, m

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