Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20170327 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch March 27, 2017

Happy monday. Im melissa lee. The dow was down about 184 points at session lows. The nasdaq has turned positive thanks to strength from biotech names like regeneron. The worst performing sector, down by half a percent. Well have much more on the bank selloff straight ahead. Here is what else is happening this hour. Some news you heard exclusively here on cnbc, sources telling us bill gross has settle his lawsuit against his former employer pimco between 75 million and 100 million. The number around 81 million. Gross filed the original 200 million lawsuit back in 2015. His dismissal from pimco was a breach of contract. Amtrak derailment with no injuries reported. The investigation is widening into the terror attack in london. Uk police say there is no evidence the attacker discussed his plans with anyone else or any other group. Melissa . We have a very busy two hours ahead. We kick things off in washington where the Trump Administration is trying to turn the page following last weeks fail europe of the Health Care Bill. Lets get straight to eamonn javers. Reporter this is day one. They are looking for ways to move forward here in the wake of obamacare. Put some points on the board, score some big wins here. We saw the president earlier today meeting with Small Business women. This was a scripted moment here. No major news. He didnt answer reporters questions today. Were expecting within about a half hour now sean spicers press briefing and a whole host of questions facing this white house now including just how tax reform and the rollout will be different than what we saw on health care. Thats a question i asked sean spicer friday. He didnt want to go there yet. Well see if he can offer insights today. That is the next big agenda item. Does the white house have a handle on these competing factions up on capitol hill . Some of the same problems that bedeviled them in terms of health care will be up there on capitol hill for tax reform. Does the white house have a good sense now of the lay of the land of all those factions . And then what will Jared Kushner focus on in his new role on government innovation . Its a new title given to the president s soninlaw here at the white house. Hes going to be working, we know, with executives from apple, sales force, and other companies. But what are they going to focus on . What sort of regulatory relief ideas, scream line government innovation could we expect to see from that effort, if any. There have been a lot of efforts to reform government. Not a lot of success in the past. Are there other planks within a potential tax plan that look weakened now that health care has not managed to pass . For instance the ryan brady pat . Reporter paul ryan was damaged. The white house put a the lot on his shoulders. They expected him to lead them to victory. He wasnt able to do it. They will be more skeptical now thats paul ryans favorite solution to tax reform. Somehow, though, they have to generate some revenue in and among all these tack cuts because there are conservatives on capitol hill who will not want to blow a massive hole in the deficit with a tax cut bill. Theyre signaling now theyre willing to have some deficit additions here but, still, they get the willies when you talk about big deficit numbers. Theres going to be a need for revenue somewhere. Thats paul ryans solution. Will it work out is another question altogether. Eamon, thank you. Eamon javers at the white house. Should investors start worrying the trump agenda and the trump trade is in jeopardy . Lets bring in the managing director. Trevor, what caught my eye in the notes the second producer handed us is the odds are increased. That some sort of tax reform will, in fact, pass. And i imagine those odds increase in your view since the failure of the Health Care Bill. Why is that . I think theres a little desperation within the Trump White House and the gop in general to get a win. I think theres a question to be answered about timing and about how they roll this out. But i do think in the end youll likely see more compromise within warring factions within the gop in order to get something done. They didnt treat them with quite the must pass urgency we expected them to. I would expect to see more of that with tax reform. Do you think then the tax reform becomes much weaker than maybe the markets had anticipated because of that desperation . I think it could. There are some issues with not Getting Health Care reform done earlier. It makes the tax reform agenda a tougher one to meet from a big tax break standpoint. Obviously the ryan brady tax plan shoots the moon and it has a lot of senators in red states with respect. The markets have had an irrational optimism around timing in Getting Health Care reform done and tax reform done. I think that needs to be reset and what youre seeing over the last week. It seems tax reform is a big, shiny object on the other side of the river. Until we cross that river we have to get over the bridge of a possible government shutdown. Do you believe that the government will be shut down because, once again, congress cannot come to any bipartisan resolution about the budget . Well, i certainly think the odds have increased. I think a lot of folks who might not have had as much leverage in the debate preaca failure do have leverage now. Republicans will treat this as something they cant let happen from a shutdown perspective. I think speaker ryan and leader mcconnell are not going to let that happen. I think theyll find a way to get it done. Weve seen in the past that the Freedom Caucus has been a thorn in their side and theyve been able to turn to leader Republican Leadership has been able to turn to democrats to get some votes. I think theyll probably have to try to do that this time around, too. I think at the end of the day Republican Leadership knows that a shutdown will be on their shoulders, and theyre not going to let it happen. Trevor, you said it there about democrats. There were some discussions made on the sunday news programs by trump people that maybe the president will start to work with democrats on health caver if the republicans arent going to get him what he wants. That seemed like a great shot across the bow. As i read that, its a hopeful sign because trump is not really republicanrepublican, right . Hes not necessarily a party member. Do you think because of the failure of the repeal more bipartisanship . Give us hope, trevor. Im not sure the defensemmoc are willing to give the white house much of a win at this point. If youre talking about a place where democrats and the Trump White House may come into alignment, i think youre looking further down the field maybe at a discussion in the fall. I think with respect to tax reform, with respect to the big issues between now and then im not sure youll see a ton of sort of outward support of the Trump White House from democrats. Well see what happens with the gorsuch nomination. That shapes up to be a pretty interesting fight. I do think democrats feel they have some cards to play around the debt ceiling now. You cant blame a guy for trying to find a little sunshine on a rainy monday, trevor. Appreciate that. Trevor hanger, height. Did you know that if the dow closes down today it will be the eighth straight down day for the dow. That would be the longest down streak in nearly six years. Lets bring in Portfolio Manager of Morgan Stanley and brian levitt with oppenheimer. Maybe being on this side of the camera, weve been up for so long that we tend to be reacting very strongly, shall i say, to a two or threepoint deceleration in the dow. Is 2 down the new 10 down . Yeah, no this is your chance to blame the media, brian. I dont think we should be overreacting to it. You asked about the dow. I would say with the s p 500 theres a greater than 5 correction in every single year over the last 30something years. I think with the exception of 1995. Corrections happen. I think what is surprising is that everybody is reacting as if we didnt know that the realities of governing were difficult. I mean, there was a reasonable base case optimism to be made in the aftermath of the election, but we always knew this wasnt going to be easy. Health care bills dont get written in 17 days. Ronald reagan won reelection 49 states to one and we didnt get tax reform until 1986. These things take time. Any disruption should be taken with a grain of salt and investors should take a breather and not get not overreact to this. How should we interpret investor reaction to this setback in health care because, basically, theyre shirking it off. The vix is higher and is probably the highest level for the year right now, but at the same time the nasdaq has turned positive. We have halved our losses. There was this failure here but we still are believers that tax reform will get done. Sure. Absolutely. I think moving health care to aside is good for reform. I agree with your previous speaker. So i think thats good, but, again, brian, your point is dead on. Its only down 2 . My gosh. Could the market have a further pullback . Its possible. What were forgetting here is what happens in two weeks . Were going to have earnings season and i think it will be pretty good. Theres no better setup than a little weak ness in the market going into earnings season because expectations are lower. Thats actually pretty good. It might be near term weakness. I think were setting up for a good april. Are you saying to buy this small dip, the dip you both say is negligible. I think the market can weaken further. I dont think it is the bottom. We could see another 2 , 2. 5 pullback. I think the story is not about whats going on in washington. The story is about an earnings recovery and good economic data. Youll hear that and more confidence coming out of companies when they start to report in april. I think the market will like that especially if its week going into that period. Lets not forget 9 of the 11 have had earnings projections upward. Leave our audience with actionable advice. If we get a downturn of a couple percent, what would you do with it . Buy protection right now . People have made a lot of money. Should i take some profits . What should our viewers do . I think for most investors they want a plan. Secular bull markets i believe we are in are not going to end with a fed thats generally accommodative. The u. S. Economy is doing okay. I think the reality is the composition of returns have changed somewhat in that everybody thought it was a value trade. I think were still in growth, in a slow growth world. If you look at europe, expectations were not as high as they are in the United States. Valuations were lower. And cyclically theyre better than the United States which is further along. Andrew and brian, thank you. Got a news alert in the bond market. Lets go to sue herera. Hi, melissa. 26 billion of twoyear notes went off the board and the yield came in. That basically was about one basis point below its 1 00 p. M. Offering rate. The bid to cover ratio was stronger than it has been in the past. The tenyear average is 2. 69 to 1. Indirect participation was higher. Direct participation 10. 8 . Leggings apparently dont fly at united if youre part of a pass ride program. A twitter backlash and a big headache for the airline ahead. The trump trade unwind but where is it hurting the most . Well tell you. First the banks getting beaten up. Whats behind the downturn next. Rodney and his new business. He teaches lessons to stanley. And thats kind of it right now. But rodney knew just what to do. He got quickbooks. It organizes all his accounts, so he knows where he stands in an instant. Ahhh. Thats a profit. Which gave him the idea to spend a little cash on some brilliant marketing ha, clever. Wow, look at all these new students way to grow, rodney know where you stand instantly. Visit quickbooks. Com. With e trades powerful trading tools, right at your fingertips, you have access to indepth analysis, level 2 data, and a team of experienced traders ready to help you if you need it. Its like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. Its your trade. E trade. Start trading today at etrade. Com on a perfect car, then smash it into a tree. Your Insurance Company raises your rates. Maybe you shouldve done more research on them. For drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. And if you do have an accident, our claims centers are available to assist you 24 7. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. Welcome back. A big turnaround. The s p 500 is just a hair away are from turning positive for the day. When you woke up this morning you probably wanted to jump under the bed. It looked like doom and gloom. What have you done . The decline wasnt going to keep me away from work. The nasdaq hovering around session highs, like you said, the index turning positive. The only one to do so thanks to strength from biotech stocks, specifically names like regeneron. The nasdaq has been up in 10 of the last 13 sections, bucked the downturn overall. Leaders include micron. Shares up more than 20 . Also, monster beverage up 13 as well. And then big tech like facebook, microsoft all up between 2 or 3 so far just this month. Back over to you. Thanks so much. Bank stocks on pace it to have their worst month. The Regional Bank etf down 8 and today trading on very heavy volume. Is now the time to buy . Lets bring in the managing director. Great to have you with us. Bank stocks didnt move around this much and here we are where a 3 move is almost par for the course of the how do you interpret these moves on very heavy trading volume. There is bifurcation. Those that looked at the outlook as decent, the benefit of higher interest rates, the income edging higher. And thats consensus. Financial reform and a pullback and a fiscal stimulus agenda things accelerate. What are some of the questions youre getting from investors . When you have a 9 decline over the past month in a name like Goldman Sachs or Morgan Stanley you think the gains they made had in the past month have been made on the premise there would be deregulation, that the yield curve would be steepening. Both of think are in doubt. It has been in flat. Short rates are higher. Most people are thinking june and they went to march predicting two more hikes which is quite beneficial. A multiyear period, one of the things investors fail to appreciate is while some could get through the legislature process a lot of things through changes in policies and personnel. You have Steve Mnuchin and there are policies they can bring in that will be beneficial to the banks that dont necessarily require the house or senate to go along with it. I have a sixmonth time who are eye done, would you say buy the sector versus a twoyear time horizon . We do think the stocks have the ability to work higher. We have a bias because we think there will be larger beneficiaries from a regulatory rollback. Jason, thank you. Jason goldberg. All right, on deck a story that just might, just might signal that we have finally hit peak internet overreacting outrage. I thought you were going to say leggings. It involves an airline, social media and, yes, melissa, leggings. Stick around. To paraphrase the pep ridge farm ads, remember people used to dress up to get on flights. United airlines kind of remembers, dealing with a bit of a Public Relations turbulence after a woman saw two teenaged girls turned away from boarding a plane ostensibly for wearing leggings, a common outfit. She tweeted what she had seen setting off, what else, a firestorm of social media outrage. Celebrities tweeting that we have flown united with literally no pants on. Just a top as a dress. Next time ill only wear jeans and a scarf. United trying to do damage control saying, this is important, these were employee pass they werent employees but were given a pass by an employee and, therefore, subject to employee travel rules. Which is a stricter dress code. Is this another case the internet has overreacted about nonsense . Probably because they didnt know the full story. You see a headline they didnt even see it, they presumed what was happening. They didnt know about the dress code. Whether or not the dress code is still apropropriate in this day and age is a whole other story. As a company they have the right to enforce a dress code for their employees or extension of their employees which this is the case. Have any of these people flown to vegas from newark . Half the flight is wearing pajamas. People dress horribly. The other half is wearing something made of velour, so calm down. Come to newark. Shocking. Is the market moving from benefit of the dow to just what the president can actually accomplish . Not a velour track suit that im wearing today. When i fly i try to dress as best i can. Some stocks have been hit harder than others. Will these hardhit secretators hit next on power lunch. What we do every night is like something out of a strange dream except that the next morning it all makes sense. To power global ecommerce Fedex Networks are massive farreaching and, yes a little magical. So what else is new . Humm. Shes doing good. She needs more care though. She wants to stay in her house. I dont know even where to start with that. First, lets take a look at your Financial Plan and see what we can do. Ok, so weve got. Well listen. Well talk. Well plan. Baird. Hi, everybody. Im sue herera. A developing story out of chicago, an amtrak train carrying about 200 passengers derailing outside chicagos union station. No immediate reports of injuries. It is the second derailment involving an amtrak train since friday when an acellera derailed. An avalanche at a ski resort north of tokyo. Authorities say that it happened this morning while the students were mountain climbing. Theres also word that 40 other people were injured. President Trumps Supreme Court pick neil gorsuch will have to wait an extra week to find out if hell get confirmed. Democrats forcing the Judiciary Committee to delay the vote which will happen next monday. Hes still on track for confirmation with solid backing from republicans. And the oakl

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