Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20160125 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Alley January 25, 2016

Oil, though, now down more than 16 yeartodate, spencer. What looked like a bounce last week we know now is potentially not a bottom. You know, it just goes to show how confusing the difference in the divide is between wall street and main street. Most regular americans think the price is oil is down, i get to save money at the gas pump and yet were telling them thats really bad for everybody and thats why stocks are down. Clearly investors have rediscovered risk. They are caring about valuations for the first time in a long time and it starts in the Public Markets and certainly trickling upstream to the private markets. I see this in my Angel Investments and in the Venture Capital community for sure. We seem to have this reliance again, mike, on rhetoric as they kick off the twoday meeting this week. I think the muscle memory is very strong. And there was a lot of anxiety going into the december fed rate increase. So i feel like the backdrop is, okay, it seems like theyre kind of taking a leap of faith here by being able to go up by 25 basis points, doing Something Different than the rest of the world is doing. And the markets verdict was maybe the risks were pretty i dont think anybody can be traced directly to short term funds or 25 basis points more expensive today. But i think the signalling probably is what has to change or is likely to change. Trying to stick to this idea that everything is great, because the u. S. Economy domestically is pretty good footing by the things we look at that they want it three or four more times this year. Thats probably going to change. So i think were on the same treadmill. Am i the only one that cant get into the total doom and gloom aspect of this market . Yes, its down 7 . Wasnt everybody saying we needed a correction . We got one. Now were worried about oil. Hey, i get happy every time i drive up to the gas station. I know its bad for some people. But its good for some people when the price of oil is really high. And paying a lot for gas. That doesnt cheer me up. I think youre right. Home values are up. The American Consumer is healthier than i think people realize. Clearly, china is growing more slowly than some people thought or the Chinese Government would have had us believe up until now. That should surprise nobody. Of i think the American Consumer is doing much better than people realize. And part of that is price of oil being lower, which actually helps American Consumers. Whats happening is investors had five years of free money, and that boosted valuations, created this huge bull market, boosted private company valuations, because late stage investors and mutual funds had started looking for more yield by going into the private markets. And you saw mutual funds investing in private companies. That era of free money, as the fed raises rates, that is ending right now. There is a real effect on companies. The Fourth Quarter was the worst quarter for tech ipos. And there is a worry that consumer looks at these headlines, looks at the market performance, and their psychology starts to shift and they start to move their money. That hasnt happened yet but still could. No, it has not happened yet. I think one of the reasons it seems to matter more, were not operating a fat cushion here. Best Case Scenario for most people, 2. 5 growth. Nominal growth not that strong. The idea being that the swing factors dont have to be that big to drop us into what feels like a not so great economy. Dallas fed survey looks horrible right now. So pockets of the country are feeling like theyre in retrenchment mode. But to your point, spencer, i totally agree. We had a few years when wall street really partied when on main street, the recovery wasnt that evidence. I do think maybe a year ago that process started to reverse. Yes. Meanwhile, twitter shares are down 5 this morning. The Company Announcing a Major Management overhaul and changes to its board. Twitter now tumbling 26 for the year, down more than 50 in the last one year. Cnbcs Julia Boorstin joins us from los angeles with the latest. Julia. Kayla, thats right. Twitter shares trading around an alltime low this morning as Investors Show a lack of confidence in leadership amid some big departures. Jack dorsey twitter ceo tweeting about the departure of four top executives. Alex rotor, skip shipper, Katie Stanton and kevin weil. Dorsey tweeting they have, quote, chosen to leave the company, and quote, all four will be taking welldeserved time off. And the head of vine, jason toff leaving to work at google. Adam bane has responsibility for all revenue related product teams, as well as oversight of media and hr. And to help fill the executive void and to also help address criticism that dorsey is not delegating enough, cto messenger will be engineering. Dorsey saying, quote, i will be partnering day and night to build the right experiences. Twitter shares a loss of half their value since he returned july 1st. Raising some questions about whether the company will be a target for an acquisition or an activist investor. Now were awaiting the announcement of a new chief marketing officer, as well as a new head of pr, and potentially the announcement of some new additions to twitters board, and of course, all eyes will be on that february 10th announcement of twitters Quarterly Earnings report. Im sure there will be a huge focus on those user numbers that twitter has been struggling to grow. Back over to you guys. All right. Thanks, julia. Spencer rascoff, how quickly does twitter need to restore confidence . I feel badly for people working incredibly hard at twitter and the fact that their company is constantly in the spotlight, executive turmoil and boardroom it turmoil makes it hard to do good work at the company. The challenge for twitter, they need to explain to my mom what twitter is and why should she should care. You havent done that . I have tried. It is hard. My mom is kind of sorta on twitter. She follows me and no one else. But its not my job to do that. Its twitters job to articulate to its users and nonusers what it is and why they should care. And thats the challenge for them. They have actually improved dramatically over the last two years. But i dont think they have articulated the Value Proposition and what the purpose of the service is. Thats the challenge before them. So half of your executive team your number two quits, right . God forbid. Whats the impact on your work force and morale . What is it you have to do the next day, the news leaks out over the weekend, days before you are planning to spin it to the troops . Its a mess. And i feel badly for them. I mean youre ceo. What do you do in that situation . What do you is i think what jack is doing. I think coming out ahead not ahead of the news, but earlier than he wanted to on a sunday night instead of later this week was the right decision. Everybody already knew the news was out. But you have to try to rebuild. And you find great people like anthony or adam bane already on the executive bench and willing to step up and take on more responsibility. You have to attract new people and articulate the Value Proposition to your employees, first and foremost and get them back on mission, get them focused on the product and users rather than the stock price and media speculation. Not just rebuilding the executive bench but also rebuilding the board too. And thats something that is a priority. If if you are twitter, what sort of expertise do you think the board needs, and who do you think this bigname media exec is . I think what they need is other executive operators, other people Running Companies and are in the midst of trying to create Corporate Culture at their own company. Thats what i think they need. I dont know who this big media exec will be. Martha stewarttype or who knows who as another director. But i think that they would they would benefit from having other people that are actually trying to build Companies Rather than kind of big names. Well see. I dont know who the other people on the board will be. Clearly they need to restack the board as well as the executive sweet. Which is from an investor perspective more of a big deal, product trouble or people trouble . Because twitter has product trouble. We have seen that in the growth. But jack dorseys story, ive got a great team, were going to figure this out. Now that story is falling apart. Half that executive team, adam bane aside, is gone. And the fact that its happening three months after he was formally installed as ceo again. You would think by three months, you kind of already marshalled the troops and decided this is going to be the plan. And then youre getting the signal today that maybe thats not the case. Again, you could have kind of a fresh start. I did from an investor perspective it becomes just exactly what the ultimate ambitions of this business are. Are we still explaining it to your mom and trying to really vastly expand the user base, maximize returns from kind of the existing user base. And just kind of participate in media some other way. And you know, i think right now, its not clear at all. And i also think there has been maybe spencer has a thought on this. Jack dorsey and his team have been too wedded to the original concept of twitter. My mom is on twitter. My dad is not. Just for the record. Twitter has evolved a lot over the years. I think even in the announcement last week about the next company or even in jacks announcement last night about the changes, just as a little example, we all use the product. You can see, they attached a screen shot of a word document or in dicks case i think notes from his iphone. Thats how they sent a long tweet. So to pick on an example. Theyre using their own service to make a larger announcement and the product doesnt support that. These are things they know they need to change and improve. The other people we shouldnt forget about are the employees at square, who today, their ceo is fighting this other fire at twitter. And, again, theyre doing great work at square. But its very difficult for them to get caught up in this whirlwind. Quickly before we move oranges spencer, youre a ceo who is a big deal. Is twitter an m a story . I dont think it is. If i were on the board or ceo, i dont think now is the time to sell the company. You tend to sell out of strength, not weakness. I think its interesting and fun to speculate, but i do not think twitter is a takeover target. And how do home sales data zillow is out with new housing forecasts. Predicting home values to rise 2. 6 in 2016, and that relief is on the way for renters. This as dr horton is out with results this morning. The stock down 5. 5 , though, on mixed results. But there is a little bit of strength in your data. Is that broad brush . Or is that the energy patch . Whats happening in housing now is its a very localized market. Certain parts like denver, seattle, bay area, new york, which are appreciating 5 to 10 and other parts that are flat or in some cases declining in the midwest. So very localized story. The big change, though, is rent affordability. So for the last couple years, renters have just had their relent sky rocket. The typical american is spending 30 of their income on rent. Historically its supposed to be 25 and in San Francisco and new york, over 50 on relent. Zillow data shows finally rent is starting to taper because multifamily apartment buildings have come online. It took them a couple years to build the inventory. Its now online and that means rents wont rice as quickly. Could we head into a somewhat long period of stagnation or declines in the Real Estate Market . It seems like rents have gotten unsustainable. Perhaps this boom that we have seen in prices recently was driven by low Interest Rates that are perhaps creeping higher. What do you say . Yeah. I mean, last year home values increased 4 year offer year. This year we forecast 2. 6 . So youre right, sean. This new normal is kind of boring. And prior to the big run up during the housing bubble and then the down turn during the bust, 2. 6 is sort of what we expected. So were basically returning to kind of the good old normal days of around 3 home price appreciation. Boring is good when it comes to housing. Thats where were getting to. You always come to us with some unorthodox metrics to gain the housing market. This time in your new edition of your book, the proximity to trader joes and whole foods. In the past, zillow talk, our book, we looked at proximity to starbucks, and homes in the u. S. In general over the last 17 years have appreciated 70 . If youre near a starbucks, you appreciate 100 . But if youre near a whole foods or trader joes, you appreciate 140 over that 17year period. So for home buyers, go by near a whole foods or starbucks and youll do great over the next 17 years. And the checkout line probably begins at your front door. Always good to see you. Thank you. Spencer rascoff, ceo of zillow group. His book released in paper book tomorrow. Congratulations on that. Wonder what happens if youre near chipotle. Cara swisher joins us later on for more changes coming. And the weekend snowstorm continuing to delay flights and other travel today. More next. And apple and microsoft earnings. More on that ahead on squawk alley. D last tuesday. One second its there. Then, woosh, its gone. I swear i saw it swallow seven people. Seven. I just wish one of those people could have been mrs. Johnson. [dog bark] trust me, were dealing with a higher intelligence here. The allnew audi q7 is here. Its gotten squarer. Over the years. Brighter. Bigger. Its gotten thinner. Even curvier. But whats next . For all binge watchers. Movie geeks. Sports freaks. X1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. Thousands of flights delayed or cancelled over the weekend, and the trouble continues today. Our phil lebeau is in chicago tracking the damage. Phil. John, for those flying into washington, specifically dulles or those flying into newark, its still going to be a tough sled, so to speak, because theyre still struggling to get snow out of there. The good news is, when you look at the airports on the east coast, today is much better than its been over the last three days. Flights are gradually returning. The d. C. Airports, they are hardest hit, along with newark. Slowest to come back, regular service, generally speaking, resuming at all the airports by tomorrow. In total, more than 12,600 flights cancelled since friday. This brings the worst storm in terms of cancellations to airlines since hurricane sandy. And in terms of individual airlines, who is most impacted, american and united are feeling it the most. No surprise on united, given the fact that it has hubs both at newark, as well as at dulles, and as you look at these airline stocks, some have said, well, are we going to see an impact in terms of shares . Keep in mind, the airlines budget, if you will, for a couple big storms, every winter. So they expect Something Like this. Perhaps maybe not every storm to be as impactful as this one. But they do budge it for these types of storms, guys. And they are lower today with a few exceptions. All right. Thanks, phil lebeau with an update on the storm impact from chicago. Phil, thanks. Coming up, mcdonalds out with Quarterly Results this morning. Strong u. S. Sales, and the stock is up sharply this morning. All Day Breakfast, the big driver for the quarter. The call is happening right now, and well have highlights from it, just ahead. Despite Global Markets losing some 7 trillion in value this year, there remarkably is still bullishness on the street should you be buying the dips here . Dom chu is answering that question back at headquarters. So kayla, so many different types of ways we can talk about whats happening with the market. Lets take a look at some of the names overall that may be the target of some of this buying on the dip speculation. So we looked at the s p 500 stocks, and then looked for stocks over the last week that have gained at least 5 . So a lot of buying action over the course of the last one trading week. We then said out of those, how many actually still have positive performance over the course of the last 12 months . Therefore youre not buying some of these really beaten down Energy Stocks or mining names. Only ten actually emerged in that screen and some are large cap names we know. First of all, take a look at some we want to feature here, the shares here of verizon. One of the Big Telecom Stocks to focus on, still riding that wave after a better Earnings Report than some anticipated last week. That stock still up, and analysts have a bullish price target on that share as well. So analysts like it and the wall street traders like it now. Also on the tech side, shares of a Semi Conductor maker, invidia. They have been higher the last 12 days. Analysts are bullish on these shares, as well. And then there is a huge winner from last year. That is shares of Online Retail giant amazon. Com. Of we know the shares have almost doubled. They have been up 6 over the last trading week, and analysts here still have about a 25 up side target from where shares currently stand. So there are, kayla, folks out there looking for some really beaten down deep value names to buy. Others are saying, hey, are there still positive names out there that we can get at a discount . Those are a few of the names that pass that screen. Of course, well wait and see whether or not the market really does bottom here or not. But still, kayla, interesting to point out that some of those names, only ten of them, have positive oneweek performance along with 12month performance. Amazon, invidia, and verizon just three names, guys. Back over to you. Dom chu, ever the bargain hunter. We appreciate it. Mike santolli, looking at verizon, invidia, amazon. Any safe to buy . Verizon is safe to buy in the fact that its a dividend play and the sustainability of the dividend is key.

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