Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20161017 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Alley October 17, 2016

Trumps campaign taking a vastly new direction, thiel is still in. Yeah, its also a bit puzzling. Its pretty late to give this amount of money, and it seems like, you know, the polls are bad for trump, so its strange that hes giving it now when things dont look good. You would wonder why he hadnt given money earlier when it might have had more effect. Im not sure what the point is, other than sort of there were some questions the last couple weeks whether he was still allin with trump. Some reporters had asked him and he hadnt really answered, so this sort of answers that question, but beyond sort of signaling hes still with trump, im not sure what the actual purpose is. Farhad, for someone whose estimated net worth is 2. 7 billion, what is the amount itself say to you . Because other Trump Supporters have given vastly larger amounts towards a campaign, and im just wondering if you think this is him putting his money where his mouth is, or if this is basically doing as little as possible . Right, it did seem like a small amount, too. Lots of people in the valley that are clinton supporters have given much more and made a big deal about the amount they are giving. This is a relatively small amount for how much, you know, hes worth, given late and kind of quietly. So its puzzling. I mean, you know, its, obviously, money to trump, so it obviously signals some support, but its not that much and its pretty late, so it doesnt signal, you know, the wholehearted support. Its an odd thing. We know thiel is a lightning rod of sorts, or at least relatively isolated in the valley. People know about his support for trump, he spoke at the convention. I wonder, does this change how people view him out there right now . I wonder about that. I mean, i dont think so. I dont think the donation changes anything specifically. It just signals, you know, he has the position he had a few months ago. People, you know, he was an outlier before this trump donation. I think the sort of underscored how much of an outlier he is politically. I dont think it changes anything in sort of the business of the valley, you know, im not sure, you know, why this week said its still going to, you know, be, you know, work with thiel. I dont think thiels position on the facebook board is going to change. I dont think it sort of changes anything in the willingness to work with peter thiel. Hes still, you know hes got a lot of money and, you know, startups are going to work with him. Im pretty sure. I dont think it sort of changes, like, the political calculus in the valley, as far as i can tell. What do you think would change that, farhad . Because politics is inherently personal. People donate to political causes they feel strongly about all the time, but is there something you think thiel could say or do to cause people to change their minds about that . I mean, i wonder if he comes out in support of, you know, Something Like if he comes out in support of Donald Trumps immigration positions, for example, that could change it. If he comes out more in support of Donald Trumps specific policies that the valley, people in the valley dont like, i think that could change it, but im not sure he would. And hes also sort of its priced into peter thiel that hes a political outlier here, so i dont think he can do much that surprises people, and i think thats perhaps his calculus, right, he has been on the fringes of politics in the valley for a while, so it doesnt, you know, he had sort of freedom to do this, i think, in a way that didnt change his business. And so he is sort of pushing that limit, you know, as far as possible. Were going to watch that, obviously, be sure to tune into the third and final president ial debate coming up this wednesday night. You can catch live coverage here on cnbc. Coming up next, should apple make a big push in the content wars . Goldman suggesting apple should go big in content and launch an amazon primelike service, bundling iphone, apple music, apple tv, and live sports for 50 a month. Goldman says apples deep pockets will help it price its primelike service below the competition. That would be a big bet, farhad, the likes of which we havent seen apple committed to, at least not yet. Yeah, its an interesting idea. They have the Subscription Program for the iphone, right, you can get an iphone for about 32 a month or Something Like that, and then if you consider that, you know, when you go to buy the iphone they tell you you can get tv service, music and movies for 10 to 15 a month more, that sounds like a pretty good deal. The trouble is, those alternatives are already available from, you know, from amazon, from netflix, so its hard to see what they could add specifically that competes with that, and the other thing it would have to be is sort of exclusive content to apple devices only, which is an odd thing, right, its unusual in our media world to have, like, a tv show that only works on an apple device or certain kind of device. Even exclusive subscriptions, things like netflix and amazon work on pretty much all devices, so it would be, you know, an unusual kind of media deal. But it is an interesting idea. I think that it could work. Apple has had trouble sort of convincing content companies to go to exclusivity and the biggest hurdle is the tv plan. For years its been reported theyve been working on a socalled skinny bundle, like, you know, a cable delight subscription for fewer channels that comes over the internet and havent been able to get that done. Its hard to see if they could. In the meantime, farhad, this has been a Hardware Company where services and the revenue the Company Earns from services fits squarely into that other category. Do you think its about time apple begins making other bigger part of its business or diversifying more into services and getting more of its hardware customers into services than have up to this point . Yeah, i mean, i think to be fair thats what theyve been signaling, you know, in the last few earnings calls they have said the Services Revenue is the Fastest Growing part of their business and its also pretty profitable, so they are pushing deeper into it. The difficulty there, as i said, theres lots of competition in that market and its hard to see what they could do thats better and, you know, more applelike than the other companies have done. They are starting in this relatively late, and the other thing is, they havent been that good in services. I mean, this is a company known for hardware and cloud services, whether its, you know, content or whether its, you know, artificial intelligencelike Services Like siri, they havent been, you know, the best of breed so far. So they have to get much better than they are right now. Shots fired right there. I like it. Moving on, finally, farhad, to tesla. German regulators telling the company to stop including the misleading autopilot feature in advertising, as elon musk decides to delay the announcement scheduled for today to wednesday saying it, quote, needs a few more days of refinement. Do we have any clue what this unexpected announcement might be . I dont. I heard it seems likely its an autopilot, you know, upgrade of autopilot, which theyve been talking about for a while. They do have this difficulty with autopilot, its called autopilot, implying it drives itself without any need of the human, and thats not how it works. Youre supposed to Pay Attention and some of the accidents that have happened have been because the humans, the drivers, werent doing what they were supposed to do and there were lots of youtube videos of people testing the limits of the system. So it does seem they have a mismatch between the marketing of the system and the reality, and the marketing, i think, has been crucial to their sales. Musk himself and in the way theyve marketed their car, its been the message has been they are far out ahead of competitors and this car can basically drive itself. Thats not what it actually can do. Youre not supposed to use it that way, but i think its been key to one of the main reasons people want a tesla and are willing to pay substantially more for that car than other cars. So how would you rebrand it then, how would you call it more true to what it is and appease regulators by being more forthcoming about that . Right, any other name sounds not as good, right. Like the honest name would be semi autopilot, but doesnt sound great. Somehow i dont think youre going to go tesla marketing is not going to hire farhad majoo after that. Yeah. You have to push the limit with these names, but i think that goes too far. Its not autopilot, it doesnt drive itself, but thats what it claims. Certainly a discussion about that product since the beginning, whether or not the title was truly, truly honest. Farhad, well see what the week brings, thanks so much. Meanwhile, lets get a check on the markets, which have been slipping further into negative territory as wti slipped below 50 a barrel. September Industrial Production today, which was largely in line. You can see the dow is down 25 points, the s p is down 3, the nasdaq is down 6. Were also watching shares of caterpillar, the Company Announcing the ceo will retire next year after overseeing cats longest sales decline in history. The companys executive will take over as ceo effective at the beginning of the year. And check out shares of bank of america, the company beating estimates for the most recent quarter. Strong results in trading, just like at other banks, helped offset weaknesses in the consumer business. The shares are just slightly negative at this hour. Finally, lendingclub getting hit extremely hard today, the online lender saying it will start upcharging riskiest customers more to borrow. Its the fourth time the company has had to change its loan pricing this year to keep returns attractive for investors and keep the risk accurate. Stock is down 5 , off the lows, but were still going to keep an eye on it. When we come back, is original content paying off from netflix . What to expect after the bell tonight. Then tuning in for trump tv. Why allies might be working on a postelection backup plan. Later on, more on our exclusive with pepsi when squawk alley continues after the break. The highly advanced audi a4. Joining us now, a look at what to watch. Julia . Hey, kayla. In the face of more competition than ever and growing concern about slowing subscriber growth in the wake of higher prices, investors are watching to see whether netflix can turn things around. The stock is down about 14 so far this year after being the best performing stock in the s p 500 last year. The company projecting it will add 2. 3 million new subscribers, 2 million of them from overseas. Thats an acceleration from when subscribers fell short of netflixs own projections, but also far lower than the 3. 6 million subscribers the company added in the year ago quarter. Analysts are looking for revenue of 2. 2 billion, up from a year ago, while earnings per share are projected to drop to six cents and seven cents a year ago. In addition to all these numbers, ceo repacings will likely weigh in on the impact of the subscription price increase and how its shipped to original produced shows will impact its total spending over time. You also may see updated expectations for the potential size of netflixs total market. Some analysts are questioning how big the potential market is in the face of growing competition from amazon and hulu and others. Goldman sachs just recommended that apple launch a subscription video bundle. That could be a big blow to netflix. While we expect an analyst question or two about the reports of acquisition talks, things are likely to stay focused on netflixs organic growth. Kayla . For more on netflix, lets bring in greg olsen, who has a 220 price target on the stock. You think there are good things ahead, but what happens this quarter after the company last quarter had to apologize for volatility . Are they going to be in the same boat . Yeah, you know, its been rough the last couple quarters. I think this quarter is going to be more in the okay versus great category, and i guess what i mean by that, theres been a lot of talk about domestic sub ads being low, a lot of media reports, analysts reports suggesting they are going to do less than the 300,000 net ads that theyve guided to, and that could very well be the case. I think, though, this is all about an expectations game and expectations are low. Theres been so much talk about them missing the domestic sub ad number that i think its unlikely, you know, a slight miss there would have any real impact on the stock, assuming internationals stays strong. How much investor demand is there for this stock, given its recent prevails, michael, because its had the luxury of not having to provide ratings, to have to engage focus groups. I mean, they dont do a lot of things that Traditional Media Companies have to, but im wondering if you think investors will want more transparency if domestic subs keep bumbling. Well, i think theres definitely an interest in having more transparency around the content. I think, though, that assuming International Subs continue to grow and, you know, this is a long term kind of up into the right type of story. Youre going to have quarters where you have things like the ungrandfathering of the price increase or new competitors that enter the market, things like that, but generally they are the leader in the space, so theres going to be, certainly, interest in seeing more ratings around their content, seeing more specifics around the spending on that content, but generally they are in a leadership position of a growing category. Mike, ive seen some charts that look at the number of discreet titles on the service. In other words, the number of things you can click on to watch and thats actually topped out or in some cases come back in as they spend more money on original content. So if the library is less interesting, x original content, how much of a liability is that . Yeah, i think thats absolutely true. I think the library is shrinking, but i think its purposeful. In other words, i would say that the content that they are dropping is kind of the lowertier content. As far as the independent content they are keeping, they are keeping Quality Content thats bringing in viewers and they are dropping off some of the lower tier content in favor of originals, and i think ultimately its the right strategy. You want a unique offering and thats the way to do it. How do you measure, mike, the return on investment for what the company is plugging into original content and, you know, big ticket contracts like what they paid chris rock, 40 million for two specials . Yeah, ultimately that comes down to subscriber retention. Thats really how you measure it, and right now were in the midst of a period where subscriber retention looks a little fuzzy because of the ungrandfathering of the price increase, so i think what we really need to see is as we get through the ungrandfathering, which ends basically partway through q4, were going to see to what degree does sub ads continue to grow and well see at that point if the spend on incremental content is working. All right, well, well see what that locker room thesis looks like when we get some indications this afternoon. Mike, appreciate your time this morning. Thank you. Mike olson from piper jaffry. When we come back, the cloud wars are heating up, which companies are poised to make a big splash. And big news from ben lerer. His take on the future of Digital Media when we come back. The wolf was huffing and puffing. Like you do sometimes, grandpa . Well, when you have copd, it can be hard to breathe. 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Whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley a lot of consolidation in the cloud space lately shaking things up in the industry. Live in San Francisco with the pulse. Hey, josh. Thats right, carl. So amazon and microsoft are using their size and scale to expand their leads in this market. The most recent example, amazon partnering with vmware. That means customers will be able to run their software on private servers, as well as on amazon web services, and that could help strengthen amazons lead in the cloud. It already commands 31 of the market, according to cinergy research group, but microsofts ceo is making moves of his own. For example, he recently announced a new allowance with adobe, which says microsoft azure will be its preferred cloud platform, and that could be a smart way to try and box out the competition. All these clouds chess, microsoftadobe partnership, thats clearly taking aim at salesforce. So salesforce is a leader in crm, their own marketing cloud, in order to have a complete offering, microsoft and adobe teamed up. Now, one question for investors, what do these recent partnerships mean for the other cloud players . Remember, theyve been busy, too. Ibm also has a partnership with vmware and google can build data centers, as well as any internet giant on the planet. The truth is there wont be one king of the cloud. Looking ahead, vcs say Cloud Companies will offer different areas of expertise, some in a. I. , others in data analytics. In other words, this is going to be a multicloud world. One thing is certain, though, theres going to be a lot of business to go around. By 2019, nearly 90 of work loads will be in the cloud, according to cisco. Guys, back t

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