Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20170208 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Alley February 8, 2017

Thats right, carl. President trump tweeting from his handle realdonaldtrump my daughter, ivanka, has been treated so unfairly by nordstrom. She is a great person, always pushing me to do the right thing. Terrible this is in response to nordstrom saying that they have pulled their merchandise, as every year, at 10 of the goods they sell and make decisions based on what is selling and what is not. Some read that as the impact of the boycott on donald trump and trump merchandise at a variety of retailers. That news came in the middle of last week. So, in some ways, its a bit surprising its taken the president this long to say anything, if he has at least chosen to Say Something at this point. Shares of nordstrom did fall initially and they have responded, sitting right about unchanged at this point. Carl . Courtney, were going to watch that, see if it hangs in there. Thank you very much. Spencer rascoff, i know we want to get to immigration and certainly your earnings, but how do you think nordstrom should respond . How much fear do ceos live in regarding these tweets . I can tell you people are scrambling at nordstrom headquarters in seattle right now. I mean, this is every management teams worst nightmare, to be singled out on a platform like twitter by the president. So im not quite sure what i would do, actually, if i were the ceo of twitter or the person running social media twitter. I guess you issue a statement that says we made this decision for business reasons, which is what they said last week when they announced they were going to discontinue the line, and you stick with that statement and you just hope that it passes within a couple of hours, which it probably will. Spencer, on zillow, some people disappointed with the guidance, and particularly with the fundamentals of the business, how just momentum in terms of usage was going. Are they overly concerned . The stocks down. Your stocks down, zillow group, about 7 this morning. Well, we recorded a great q4 in terms of revenue and profit ahead of expectation, but the stock reacts to forwardlooking guidance and the guidance we gave in 2017 was a strong number, over 1 billion in revenue, which for a company only 10 years old is impressive. But we said wed do around 200 million of ebitda this year and some shortterm investors would like us to be more profitable in the near term. Our perspective, of course, is that were making investments we think will pay off down the road. Were spending tens of millions buying Software Tools for Real Estate Agents that makes them more effective and efficient. The reason is, if theyre more efficient, we think theyll buy more ads from us. And were spending over 100 million advertising our brands, but those two investments have the effect of making 2017 profit lower than some would like. We think theyre the right decisions for the long term. How correlated is your business going to be with the Housing Market here, especially as we see Mortgage Rates start to tick up on the back of higher Interest Rates since the election, spencer . So, housing is slowing a little bit. Last year home values were up around 7 . This year we expect 3 to 4 appreciation and rents up 2 last year, this year about 1 . What tends to happen, though, when housing slows is theres a flight to quality in terms of selecting great agents and also a flight to quality in terms of how agents advertise. And because Online Advertising for real estate is measurable and its efficient, effective and scaleable and leads go into software, we do very, very well, actually. And you see this in our data from 2008 during the last housing recession. We do very well when housing actually slows down, because offline advertising tends to migrate online. All that having been said, were not actually forecasting any type of housing recession. In fact, we think that Mortgage Rates have a long way to go on the up side before it really impacts housing at all. We just think the rate of appreciation this year will be a little slower than it was last year. Interesting. Journal has a big piece this morning on commercial real estate. Some metrics declining for the First Time Since 09. Any worries that what were seeing in commercial might start to bleed into residential . Well, the dynamics in commercial and residential are the same in that its just simple supply and demand. What weve seen in residential is there just hasnt been enough supply. So new construction Housing Starts are finally picking up off the bottom, but were still a couple hundred thousand units per year light on new construction, and particularly on multifamily. So finally, were seeing apartment buildings come online that were permanent two or three years ago and thats why rents are moderating. The same dynamics in commercial its all about the rate of development, once shovels are in the ground. Two or three years later, the supply comes online and tends to moderate rents, or in the case of commercial, lease terms. Before we move on to immigration, spencer, i wanted to ask how you feel about ben carson leaving the department of housing and urban development. What do you think of that pick and what else do you think well get from the Trump Administration as far as it relates to housing . I dont know dr. Carson personally, although we look forward to working with him. Weve always had a very close working relationship at zillow group with hud, fha, fannie, freddie, the treasury and the white house, so well certainly be working with the hud staff, and hopefully, the secretary, once he gets confirmed. You know, the partnership between zillow group and housing experts in d. C. And in state capitols has always been important. Were an important voice on housing because of the size of our consumer audience, so its important for us to work with government to shape housing policy. Spencer, moving on to the immigration ban, temporary ban that the president has tried to put in place by executive order, is going through the courts right now. I know that seattle is a very diverse tech hub. A lot of the companies there have come out against this. What exactly is the objection from your perspective . I mean, i know lots of people say the rollout of this executive order was basically botched, but theres also an argument that congress has delegated this power to the executive to control who comes into and out of the country. How does this get fixed in your view . Forget about how it was executed in the first place. Well, zillow group has come out against this ban. We think its bad for business. We think its bad for the country. And frankly, i dont think it makes america safer. I think it makes us less safe. Our objection to it is it cuts at the very center of the culture of the country, which welcomes refugees, including my great grandparents, and it welcomes immigrants from all countries. So, i hope that our immigration policy can find a better way to balance the importance of keeping the country safe but also the importance of keeping this country one that welcomes immigrants. And the reason that you see tech leaders speaking out so passionately about this is because tech and immigration are inextricably intertwined. I mean, the innovation that immigrants bring to this country, the ingenuity, the entrepreneurialism, a lot of that is the lifeblood of the Tech Industry, and thats why people are so passionate about this within my tech community. Although, spencer, im sure youve heard, though, supporters of the president this is not a ban, this is a pause. Why do you not believe its worth taking a moment, 120 days or whatever, to reassess our protocol . Well, i mean, i dont think that you can single out individual countries, for starters. I think thats problematic. I think the other problem here is that the way the rest of the world is reporting this is the u. S. Has banned muslims from entering america, right . So, for better or for worse, thats what people in europe, thats what people in the middle east are hearing. That makes america less safe. So i think from a practical standpoint, its really endangered america by creating this propaganda bonanza for people outside of this country that would do us harm by giving them the opportunity to say that weve banned muslims from entering the United States. So, i wish that it had been done in a different way. And i know that were going to be working to create a more comprehensive immigration policy, potentially including h1b visas, which are also the lifeblood of the technology industry. And as i say, i hope we can do it in a way that balances the important needs of Public Safety with the importance of making america continue to be a place that immigrants feel welcome. But spencer, how, then, do you balance that . How do you make that calculation as an executive, to come out within two weeks of a new president to object to his new executive order . If we started off the segment talking about the tweet risk, the fact that nordstrom shares are down, without getting in his crosshairs . Well, ive decided that my litmus test, our companys litmus test will be that we only speak out on issues that directly affect our employees or our industry. Thats tech and housing. So youre not going to hear me speaking out around issues of abortion or gun control or other things that dont directly affect housing or tech. Immigration i believe directly affects tech, so thats why on this issue weve decided to speak out and make our opinion known. But there are other executives that have a different litmus test that are using their pulpit as an executive running a Public Company to express their views on all matters of things. For us, were going to focus on tech and housing and immigration is one of those issues that does affect us. At the beginning of this segment, spencer, you said wait a couple hours, maybe it will pass. Nordstrom shares are essentially flat, moments after that president ial tweet. Well see what happens later today. Its good to see you. Thanks. Thank you for having me. Spencer rascoff. And we want to check in on the Broader Market here because stocks have made a little bit of a comeback from some earlier declines. Right now the s p has just gone positive. So is the nasdaq. The dow is still off, way off the lows, down about 30 points. Some individual movers were keeping track of today btig upgrading twitter to buy from neutral, citing acceleration in daily active users in the u. S. As a catalyst. Notable call. Twitter up a bit. Also, facebook within striking distance of fresh alltime high. Bank of america this morning adding the stock to its us1 buy list, saying in the wake of snapchats ipo filing, facebook will face less Competitive Pressure than expected. Facebook also announcing its doubling its bereavement leave for employees, on an unrelated note, but obviously a personal one for coo sheryl sandberg. The stock is getting a boost after earnings and after this call from b of a. I also think, you know, on the bereavement lot calls, its interesting to watch these policies come from Silicon Valley in the absence of government policies. Its not a law, for instance, that they have to pay their employees to take time off after an immediate Family Member has deceased. But well continue to watch for that. It does speak to the tight job market, the tight labor market in tech. Theyve got to compete for engineers especially, but talent across the board, across any number of different not just immigrants. Yeah. Thats part of the reason why they argue so much for h1b visas, is because they have that tightness. Interesting to see twitter pop so much on a lot of people attributing it to these antiharassment policies that they are putting in place. It speaks a lot to the need for retention in social media right now. Facebook has clearly demonstrated that. Were going to see more from snap. Weve got their s1, finally, but theyre making a strong argument for not just overall retention, but retaining users in developed markets who actually pull in the advertising dollars. Certainly for twitter, it is about north america that moves the needle more than anything else. When we come back, steve forbes this morning calling the house border tax proposal insane, but what are investors thinking . The answers next. Bob iger of disney talks to Julia Boorstin on everything from espn to immigration. Later, why jeff bezos says someones source at the New York Post mixed up their meds. Dow is in the red as oil has gone back green. Back in a minute. Your Insurance Company wont replace the full value of your totaled new car. The guy says you picked the wrong insurance plan. No, i picked the wrong Insurance Company. With Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, you wont have to worry about replacing your car because youll get the full value back including depreciation. And if you have more than one Liberty Mutual policy, you qualify for a multipolicy discount, saving you money on your car and home coverage. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. A new market risk unfolding before our eyes this morning. The president of the United States targeting individual companies on his social media account and in rhetoric. Nordstrom just the latest example, as the president just tweeted out, my daughter, ivanka, has been treated so unfairly from nordstrom. Terrible. Lets bring in the chief investment strategist at wisdomtree investments and kim wallace, managing director and ahead of washington policy research at Renaissance Macro research. Thanks for joining us. Luciano, it does speak to the fact that there is a lot of headline risk right now, whether its coming from twitter. I just wonder how much of it is algorithms looking to pick up this stuff affecting the Broader Market right now . Well, the president , donald trump has shown this last 18 months, if you hit him or you hit his brand, hes going to hit back twice as hard. Were going to need to get used to this. This is a new style of governing. Its a combination of a affirmative campaign and a calculated way about how you create incent and an ability to get your agenda done, targeting a relatively small part of the population. The president won. He won the electoral mandate, and he has a congress thats there willing to work with him, so were going to have to see, you know, how do we adjust in a world where he has a great deal of power and different levers he can use to push through his agenda, and tweeting is one of them. Kim, how do you tell investors to adjust to this new reality, from the twitter targets to the fact that the ceos are more engaged than weve seen in a very long time at white house with all those photo ops and policy advice . Ceos are usually engaged in the white house. Its a more public exercise than it has been in the past, and i dont expect that to change the outcomes very much. But in terms of the president s style of communication over the last two months, people have grown accustomed to it, and i think discounting those temporary hits to stock prices because it has become very customary. Luciano, lets talk about the tpp. I know youve put a lot of thought into this. When it comes to how it affects u. S. Trade in asia, which is clearly an area where theres a lot of growth, companies are very interested in doing better there, and even when it comes to how its going to affect relationships and the trade balance with mexico, which is now perhaps looking more toward china with its trade relationship with the u. S. More uncertain. Which of those relationships or maybe another one do you view as most interesting as we track the progress from here . Luciano. Oh, its addressed to me. Well, i would say the market i think is starting to take a look at whats going to happen with trade. You know, the market has swelled up about 2 trillion in market value since the election, and a lot of that was discounting the potential for tax cuts, tax reform, some type of infrastructure spend and regulatory relief. All of those things could be good for the economy and could justify how our stock price is. I think what the market is looking at now is what happens if you actually start to get some tariffs, particularly if you start with china, because theres a 500 billion trade deficit. Chinas about 350 billion of it. And the president s been very outspoken about that economic threat coming from china. And you can just look at Peter Navarro and the work that hes done, death by china. Theres definitely an agenda there that will look to be very aggressive and view china through an economic lens going forward. One of those could come in the form of Corporate Tax reform that border adjustment tax being hotly debated by republicans right now. Steve forbes was on squawk box earlier this morning. He came out swinging against it. Listen. The republicans are now proposing this crazy tax. Theyre going to punish American Consumers over 100 billion a year, give subsidies to boeing and ge, so were going to help foreign consumers in china and iran, punish American Consumers. Its insane thats one viewpoint on it, kim. What are you telling your clients about how likely this border adjustment tax is to pass . Well, were telling clients its unlikely to pass in its current form, and the current form is really a concept. The earlier piece you ran demonstrates some of the pushback against it. My view is that both sides, proponents and opponents, have overplayed their hand in terms of the rhetoric. Well wait until a draft comes out. Chairman brady says that will be in june. Well take a look at it. But in terms of how you frame this discussion, i do think the previous speaker had a point it will come down to whether or not, in rhetoric, at least, whether you support ge or whether you support walmart, and that will have an effect politically. On your earlier point on trade, the transpacific partnership, and a lot of trade deals, have a lot more to do with geopolitical relationship than economics with the u. S. Thats the loss of walking away from tpp, in my judgment. Luciano, really broadly before w

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