Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Alley 20170330 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Alley March 30, 2017

Willing to speak with President Trump with the appropriate introduction. Cnbc europes Geoff Cutmore joins us live with the details. Hi, jeff. Reporter hi, kelly. This was ostensibly an event to talk about the arctic. And so we spent a little bit of time discussing the opportunities for cooperation between russia and other countries in the Arctic Community like the United States. But in reality i think there was only one question a lot of people wanted answered, so i put it. Lets listen. There is a Senate Intelligence Committee Hearing as to whether russia has used disinformation to affect the outcome of the last president ial election. Translator i knew it was coming to this. I wouldnt really like to have all this positive sentiment while were discussing the arctic region to be killed off by the issues in bilateral americanrussian relations, but i respect you personally and cnbc which is your company instructed most likely you to ask this question. Well, of course then president putin went onto issue denials. He said read my lips, no, there was no interference in the president ial election. And he said there are domestic reasons why people continue to lie about russia. I guess weve had the russian president in the past saying no disinformation wasnt used in the u. S. Election process. But i think he really wanted to press home the point here, of course everybody will have to make up their own mind as to whether they believe his words and those Senate Investigations will continue and hopefully will get somewhere closer to an answer here. Just to wrap up, kelly, one other thing i thought was interesting, there is no formal meeting arranged between president putin and President Trump. Probably not until july at the g20 meeting in germany. I asked president putin whether he would be interested in doing something earlier, possibly at the Arctic Council meeting in may. He said definitely yes. I take that to mean hes reaching out to the white house at this point. So maybe well see some progress on that issue. Back to you. Jeff, cgeoff, can you confir came up with that question on your own . Reporter i can confirm i came up with that question on my own. But hey, look, thats not to say that producers dont do a great job. I know there are enough of them listening in to this conversation that can make me look bad in future if i dont give them due credit. So lets just say teamwork was involved. Yes, well, were very glad you were able to put that question to Vladimir Putin this morning. Thank you for joining us. Thats cnbc europes Geoff Cutmore. The russian president calling the u. S. A great power this morning adding hes ready to get russias relationship with washington back on track, all of which could have Major Economic implications. Joining us is jean spurling and glenn hubbard, council of economics advisor chair for president bush. Welcome to you both. Mr. Spurling, what do you make of the comments of the russian president this morning . You know, i dont like i would hope most americans do not put a lot of trust in the word of Vladimir Putin. I tag everything with a grain of salt. And i dont see any reason why anyone should treat him otherwise. Glen hubbard, should anything other be expected from that pointed response . I dont think so. I agree with what gene said. I think well have to wait nor the Senate Intelligence committee investigation. So we have a bipartisan agreement on this issue. Let me start with you, dean hubbard, on the economic ramifications of a russian reset. There was so much hope for the russian economy going into the Trump Presidency that they would get a boost. And even still youre seeing the ruble at an 18month high against the dollar. Does that disappear and put russia in a weaker position economically . I think it might well. And of course a lot will depend on oil prices to boot. And oil prices have rebounded, gene, what are your thoughts on how this impacts the economy and russia and the United States in that relationship . Well, look, i think that for the United States, you know, what is going to be concerning is people are going to look and ask how much uncertainty there is in the u. S. And what are the other uncertainty spots in the world. Obviously people are looking more closely at china, but russia remains a more volatile political economy. As glen said they are highly dependent on the price of oil and gas. But more than anything they have shown themselves to be a destabilizer in the global Foreign Policy and thus that becomes a destabilizer in the economic policy. So, again, i dont have you know, i think that under this Political Leadership theyre just not going to be a particularly positive force for the Global Economy in any way. Glen, i want to talk a little bit of domestic politics. Were getting ready to head into the second quarter. You said the earlier the better on tax reform, pointed out that george w. Bush managed to get at least a tax cut going just a few months into his presidency. But were talking about the possibility of broader tax reform. How soon do we need to see the Republican Congress get something concrete done to have confidence thats going to happen this year . Well, i think its best if by the august recess. But soon thereafter is fine too, as secretary mnuchin has said. I think both the Trump Administration and the congress are working hard on tax reform. And it should get substantial democrat support too. A lot of democrats have voiced support for Business Tax Reform in the past. And hopefully theyll be there today. By the way, glen, what do you make of this report from the cbo this morning. Theyre talking about higher longterm deficits, warning about the fiscal situation, admittedly projecting a lot forward, but does that put additional pressure on Trumps Administration to come up with ways to pay for a lot of the measures theyd like to do . Well, the tax reform at least the congress was looking at is revenue new tr reven revenue neutral. The cbo notes long term entitlement problems and yes, the congress and Trump Administration should work on those. Even as theyre trying well, its not like he campaigned on that though, glen. Its not like he campaigned on a message of reforming social security, reforming medicare. And the critique from the Freedom Caucus was republicans plan on repealing and replacing obamacare amounted to a new entitlement. Well, i think the first and foremost step President Trump has to take is to raise the rate of growth in the country. We cant do that then almost all of our problems are difficult to solve. Then we do need to address entitlement programs. Theres a lot of interest in that in the congress, and i think there will be in the administration too. There has to be because its just math. Gene, do you see any scenario where moderate democrats can sign onto the Trump Administrations tax reform . I think its going to be very difficult, but it ultimately depends on the path theyre going to take. They have a very tough road ahead of them. Theyve just had a major loss, an embarrassment in health care. Now right now they are split among themselves. Remember, on this border adjustment tax they cannot lose more than two people in the senate. And there are over 10, 12 republican senators who have been against that. They still havent really dealt with the issue of interest deductibility, whether thats going to be politically acceptable to their side. And then i think the issue thats going to affect a lot of trump voters and democrats is what kind of tax cut is this going to be. The ones that candidate trump put forward and that paul ryan has generally put forward have been very tilted to the top 1 . Now, you have the secretary of treasury say theres not going to be any tax cut at all for the top 1 . But i think its going to be very hard for democrats to go along with a plan thats not just Corporate Tax reform and infrastructure, which is what president obama talks about. But one that says if you buy into our Corporate Tax reform or infrastructure, you have to be for repealing the estate tax, you have to be for major cuts for people worth 5 million, 10 million, i think thats going to be a very tough sell to democrats. Glen, im wondering if all conservatives are going to keep going along with this, because the attitude now seems to be growth covers a multitude of sins promised 4 gdp growth, and then you can stuff whatever you want into the budget. Doesnt have to balance. Just say growth will take care of it. But seems like when the shoes on the other foot the argument is, no, weve got to pay for all of these things. Weve got to cut, cut, cut. Can they keep having it both ways . This will be a huge issue because the easiest way to not have any losers in Corporate Tax reform is to have a deficit, you know, exploding plan, but then say because of dynamic scoring it will all work out. Gene, hate to cut you off but i want glens take on this as well. Sure. Basically a good tax reform will raise growth, much more toward 3 . I think 4 might be a bit of a reach. And rk yes, that would pay for part of but not all of a tax reform plan. I think the core element here is cuts in business income tax rates but also support for work and other things that President Trump campaigned on. And i expect that to all be part of the plan. But, glen, the president has come in basically saying i dont want to cut entitlements at all, plus i want to spend all this money on infrastructure. And justifying it all with a growth rate projection that a lot of economists think is not realistic. I wonder is there long term danger in republicans taking that tack . Its not how i understand President Trumps plan. I think that the infrastructure plan is a large number attach, but a lot of that can be Public Private partnerships. The rest of the president s budget offers budget cuts as well as budget increases. The real issue will be what kind of tax reform plan we have. And i hope its one that is revenue neutral or close to it but really focuses heavily on business taxation. I think if the president can pull that off, hes got a big win on his hands for economic growth. All right, before we go, gene, what do you think is the surest way to get to lets call it 4 growth . Well, i think with our demographic situation getting to 4 growth for any sustained period of time is going to be great challenge without huge productivity growth. But i think the most important thing this administration could start doing right now is governing responsibly, not creating instability about whats going to happen to the health care sector, are there going to be trade disputes because they have a border adjustment tax thats going to lead to, you know, retaliation. The one thing you have to remember when youre there, and i think glen and i both know this, is you own the economy. If you create uncertainty, thats that hurts your economy. And the president for better or worse, fair or not, gets a lot of credit or blame for what happens on their watch. All right. Gentlemen, thank you both. Gene sperling and glen hubbard joining us this morning. And still to come, a cnbc exclusive with the ceo of deere sam allen. His take on President Trump, trade, job creation and much more. Then the president reportedly ready to unveil a massive 1 trillion infrastructure plan, well be joined by the ceo of u. S. Steel mario longhi, another cnbc exclusive. And before all that, a handson look at samsungs new galaxy s8 and s8 plus. Weve got the plus here onset when squawk alley returns. U. S. Transportation secretary elaine chao confirming the president will unveil a 1 trillion infrastructure plan later this year. For more on the future of american infrastructure and competitiveness under the Trump Administration, we are joined in a cnbc exclusive interview by the ceo of Deere Company, sam allen, welcome back. Nice to see you. Thanks, good to be with you. Were you encouraged, sam, to hear the infrastructure plan might be unveiled this year . Some were thinking it was a 2018 story. Yeah. It was. I think our group, specifically deere, but also from the councils standpoint that i represent here as well is thinking probably it would be in 18, but im very encouraged potentially it might be taken up this year, especially if they can bring everybody together in a bipartisan fashion and talk about passing something and funding it. Those will be the keys. Well, i have to say of all the major trump legislative items theres the most hope for bipartisan support of infrastructure. And thats certainly viewed by the market to be good for deere. The stock is up more than 20 since the election. What are your expectations for specifics on what that infrastructure plan would look like, where the money would go and how it would be funded . So let me start by saying my expectation even if everyone works together in a bipartisan fashion and it moves forward quickly, i know the administration is hoping to inject it into the marketplace quickly. But i would expect its going to take some time just like last time. Theres no such thing as shovel ready. So i would expect that it will be at least 18 months down the road once it passes and is funded that well really start seeing the stimulative effect. But it would be a very long term type effect. Its something that would probably affect our industries for at least five to ten years as those plans and programs were implemented. So its positive, but i would also say at least on a personal level my opinion is its going to take a while before it really, really has a major impact on whats going on in the marketplace. Sam, in the meantime the administration turning its attention to tax reform. Does that send shivers down your spine if it means the border adjustment tax is used to fund all of this even if the tax cut helps you . Where do you guys stand on this whole piece of legislation . As you mentioned the border adjustment tax actually would help us. Were a significant net exporter. So on a Deere Company level it would be a positive. Were very concerned, however, for our farmer customers. If as a result of the adjustment tax it had an unintended consequence of causing countries like china and mexico to buy their ag commodities from other countries, that would be negative for u. S. Farmers that do a lot of exporting to china, canada and mexico. So as it moves forward i think the real thing that we will be watching for and trying to also council on is make sure we dont have an unintended consequence that really impacts u. S. Ag exports. Sam, i want to drill down on that a little bit because the rhetoric toward china and mexico in particular has been hot coming from the Trump Administration. As a company that deals globally and needs to see growth in countries like that, if all attention starts turning to just doing business with Companies Inside our own borders and those countries do that as well, that hurts you, does it not . Yeah. I think without a doubt any form of protectionism or nationalism on the whole is not beneficial for a company like ours, any Global Company. We will adjust. We will have to adjust. But it takes time to for a manufacturer to adjust. Its much more efficient if we can have open free trade. Understandably fair trade, but free trade. We happen to be well positioned in both those countries, especially in china. We have a number of plants there that produce product for the chinese market. We dont export it from there. Its mostly for the chinese market. So in the nearterm it wouldnt be as impactful on us as it might be on some. But still in our view its not something that is a pro growth type of policy if we end up stimulating a number of countries to end up protecting their borders. Sam, you mentioned your farming customers and clients. How are they reacting . How is that Community Reacting to some of the recent immigration orders . Clearly its a big source of immigrant both documented and undocumented labor in this country. How are they reacting . Well, i havent had a chance to spend time with farmers all over. I have spent time with farmers especially on the west coast. There is definitely concern that it will drive awaylay bor that is required. Theres so many especially in vegetable production, citrus production, grape production, theres a lot of manual labor required in there. And certainly Migrant Workers are a very, very important part along the west coast along texas from an agricultural standpoint. So there is some trepidation as it relates to that. Hopefully as this moves forward it will be done in a fashion that we wont have that negative impact to the degree that people are talking about right now. Right now its mostly talk. I think the policy will be more supportive in the end. Crop prices have been down. You know, weve been talking to you for the last few years almost. I dont know if youd call it a recession, but you did sound an optimistic note in the last Quarterly Earnings call. Is the worst over for the agriculture cycle . Well, you never know. Thats one thing about the ag cycle, it is unpredictable. But tomorrow comes out the latest planting intention report from usda. And what i would say is the most people right now are predicting that there will be a move from corn planting to soy planting, could be even more than some people are predicting. And if that were to happen and you would ge

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