Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20121022 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box October 22, 2012

That number will be watched closely. Our squawk market master this hour is marc faber. Hell be joining us onset in just a moment. In fact i think i see him making his way out now. Also politics are on the agenda today, as well. We have the third and final presentation debate set for tonight in florida. That final 90 minute showdown will focus on Foreign Policy. Bob schieffer of cbs will be moderating. You can watch complete coverage right here on cnbc and of course the cnbc twicker will be live. Right now lets get you up to speed on this mornings top stories. Making headlines this morning, spains Prime Minister getting backing for his austerity drive. The vote removes a potential obstacle for him asking for a bailout. The timing of any spanish bailout is still uncertain, of course, and well have more from Ross Westgate in just a few minutes. Japans exports tumbling by 10. 3 in the year. Sharpest decline since the aftermath of last years earthquake. Meantime bank of japan is cutting it outlook for local regional economies due to a fight with china and weak global demand. And bp says it has not yet reached that agreement on the sale of its 50 stake in tnk. Bp and rosneff reportedly preparing to announce a deal worth more than 25 billion. Could give the British Oil Company a stake of between 16 and 20 . Weve been waiting for that transaction to cross the tape, but it has not been announced just yet. Mr. Kernen, how was your weekend . It was good. I read the top date on on the journal and i checked the date. Almost reads identical to last week. I was excited the first time and actually just as how excited . I was so excited i have a lot of it was so hot that but i dont have any it was so excited. But could i come up with something. Probably be dirty, though. So lets not. Corporate headline, ancestry. Com is reportedly set to be acquired by an Investor Group being whether he had by a European Private Equity firm. The wall street journal puts the price at 32 a share or 1. 6 billion. Why isnt deal book reporting . Im not sure. I dont know. So youre make fun of what were leading with. Newer a no win situation. Im losing. And thes only 6 03. How about Archer Daniels midland is bidding for grain corp. According to who . Not deal book. Im not going to attribute this to anyone. I just know this one. According to me. The deal comes at the time of consolidation in the global grain sector. You know, australia is considered a coveted market due to its stable policy are a fweem and its good licks to asia. And then nissan is recalling certainly models for 2012 and 2013 altima. Have you ever gotten an altima with the ron day rental . No. When you drive to pilates or something . I drove a gmc aurora or something. Why . I went to sesame place yesterday. And you rented a zip car to do that . No, national alamo. You know what, im glad you went because were going to shut that whole place down. Sesame, done, finished. Didnt see it coming. Henry loved it. Max was a little scared of big bird, thenhenry loved it. It was something. No kidding. One heck of a sunday. Thats so funny you have to rent a car to its a block away, so i just literally its easier than having one in the city. If you had one, youd probably be parked further away. About these altimas, do you know what was happening . The steering wheels. Not only that. The bolts could come loose and fall out and you know what that would to. Yes, you could lose control of the car. And it could increase the risk of a car crash. But its not the bolts that are the problem, its he improper torque. I dont drive car, i drive motorcycles. But bolts will come off sometimes. Do you have a side car . For you i will get one and take you around the north of thailand. Just knowing you, i figure youd have someone in that side car. I have racing bikes. Lets get a quick check on the markets. Theys looking to rebound after the big dip on friday. Dow futures up by 20, s p up by about 2, oil prices at this hour are indicated up by about 53 cents. Lundberg survey, gasoline prices down by about 8 cents. So starting for see big drops. Take a look at the ten year note. Yields 1. 798 . Thats right around where we saw it on friday when it did finally push back about 1. 8 . The dollar down against the euro. Up against both the yen and the swiss franc. And if take you a look right now, gold prices are up just barely. It is time for the Global Markets report. Ross westgate standing by in london. Very good morning to you. Looking a little bit better. Over two hours in to the trading day. Three hours. Pretty even stevens. Last week despite what happened on friday, not bad. Ftse 100 nearly up 2 , cac up 3. 4. Numbers a little firmer for the ftse, the dax and cac. Phillips a key stock, up 4 . Effectively beat expectations with Third Quarter figures across all its three Main Business units, health care, lighting and consumer electricals, as well. But they were slightly more down beat on the macro environment and seeing a down turn in the north American Consumer electricals market. Also something that was shared by ewhether he can troe lux as well today. So they are worried about the macro environment. The world is a riskier place as we wait to see what happens with the election and fiscal cliff. Europe spanish yields slightly higher, but you have to remember towards the end of last week, we sit 7 1 2 month lows. These are the bourses. Well go straight to bond yields if we can. This is where we stand. Ten year spanish yields a little bet higher. Rajoy did get through Regional Elections okay. At the moment no sichb him necessarily asking for any financial assistance. Theyll try and get through an election in catalonia. So no real fresh on asking for assistance at the moment. Berlin seems to be back pedaling on getting any money to recapitalize any banks up after the elects next year. Quick look at eurodollar. 1. 3054. Dollaryen is firmer. Pretty poor trade data out of japan today. And there are thoughts we might be flirting with a recession again in japan. We expect more monetary stimulus out from the bank of japan fairly shortly, as well. Thats where we stand in european trade. In studio today, our squawk gnaws maker not normally the case, usually he could be anywhere, hong kong, tie land. Marc faber is editor and publisher of the gloom, boom and doom report. Lets start in europe. And you are row regions combined debt burden, numbers are out, surged today. Highest level since the euro was introduced. 87. 3 of gdp, that includes greece 170 of gdp, italy and portugal 121 , eu debt to gdp limit which they will strongly enforce is 60 . So they have all these numbers that they have, but no ones in compliance with any of them. No government complies with anything. Especially is this representative of what the globe is facing . Similar to anything here in u. S. . Its similar. Its a symptom of western societies, democracies that have overspent where essentially debt has gasoline in the private sector level. And it always depends what you use it for. I remember in the 50s and 60s, they had high ratios because they invented a lot of money in plant and equipment and infrastructure. Thats a different story from borrowing to spend in other words for consumption purposes. Borrowing for consumption purposes advances consumption to today which would have taken place tomorrow anyways. And that house hold debt once it becomes guess sexcessive, it ca grow anymore. Nobody lends you money and automatically you have structurally weaker future growth. So youre in the business thousand. Of a quoted Thomas Jefferson and you are now, too, this happened this is all the way back this is a long time ago, this dude said the abuse of buying and selling votes crept in and men began to play an important part in determining elections. Later on this process of corruption spread to the law courts and then the aerl and finally the republic was subjected to the rule of emperors and then Thomas Jefferson, the issue today is the same as eithers been throughout all of history whether man should be allowed to ghofrn himself or be ruled by a small elite. Why did you decide to tell our preinterviewers these would quotes . Because history kind of repeats itself. In democracies, you start with good intentions and then pow every becomes polarized among a few people. And eventually you have either huge changes in peaceful fashion through reforms or usually revolutions. Where do you think we are in the u. S. . Were not at the revolution, but getting closer. Were moving in that direction. And the same in europe. I think the regimes will try to keep the system alive as it is for as long as possible, which means there is no fiscal cliff. Theres a fiscal grand canyon. Neverndi never ending deficits because you have to feed the population with all kinds of hands out whether a republican or a democrat. And so the debt burden will continue to go up and one day the system breaks. Is that 5, 10, 15, 50 years . I think the time frame would be within five to ten year, you have a colossal mess. Hear, europe or both is this. Everywhere in the western world. We had the cries is 1997, markets went down 90 , currencies collapsed and there was no intervention by the new keynesian. The system deleveraged, the private sector tightened their belts. Government spending was cut and it was painful for a few years. But now we have essentially again a boom. And you think your rottweilerss will be enough for you . How many do you have . Well, im a peaceful person. The problem is our drones. Do you have more than three . Yes. Four. Do they respond to german commands . They dont listen to me. If i tell them shut up, then they shut up. If you tell me that, i will. Everything will be fine, dont you worry. Even though you walk outside and someone pushes you on the subway rail, but youre talking five to ten years. This is some serious a simpsonbowles type plan, is that enough in. I think the deficit here irrespective of who is in the white house next year will stay above a trillion dollars per annum or at least as far as the eye can see fp whether mr. Bernanke is fed chairman or somebody else, there will bemoan printers. Because actually the doves at the fed, most of them, they make mr. Bernanke look like a hawk. Like a hawk. You were early on qe 15, 16 and 17. Why yo yes. Yes, but we have now unlimited. And youre also talking about regulation and how that has increased to the high he is levest levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. He is est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. E is est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. Is est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. Is est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. S est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. Est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. Est levels. Somebody told me natural gas is a game changer. Thats why the the u. S. Market has outperformed any or market. The stock market has outperformed because of natural gas . The view is this. You invest in america, america is less bad than europe and asia a okay. But they have underperformed the u. S. By and large. China and japan. Now, one of the reasons is they say the u. S. Will become energy selfsufficient in five or accept yeseven years and natural gas will lead to a competitive advantage for the u. S. Yesterday i arrived at kennedy so we go through immigration. I waited 2 1 2 hours in front of immigration it get through. You think that will gas will change any of that . This is ridiculous. The problem is we have not only in the u. S. ,s also europe bureaucracies that are far too big. My medicine is reduce government by minnesoutimum 50 . People say are you crazy . Im not going to say crazy, whats the impact of doing that now . Immediately an improvement in the economy. Immediately you would reduce regulation. Government helps the economy, andrew. Its great. You take all that money out of the system overnight, you have problems. Youre a nice person, youre young. Im sure you never read Milton Friedmans book capitalism and freedom. Yes, i did actually. I recommend you read it once again because its very short to read and it contains a lot of very interesting and valuable points against the intervention by government. In particular he says there is no evidence whatsoever that increased Government Spending leads to actually an improvement in the economy. When you think about it, for the government to spend, it has to tax the private sector to get to the money that it needs to spend, right . I mean it takes the money in tax revenues away and hires people to better you more. 50 overnight would be pretty severe just in terms of the jobs market. Not arguing that there needs to be cuts across the board. Can it happen more gradually . Yes, in three days. One after the other. Believe me, the economy would recover right away. These people have to go and look for jobs. Military for everything . Across the board. There was a time not so long ago at the turn of the 20th century we were at 8 of gdp. Thats the point. And the economy 1870 to 1920 had very strong growth rates on a real per capita income gains. But we have a period of deflation, but the standards of living increased dramatically. But look, were here to talk about investments. And the economy is one thing, the government is another story. With a were interested in is are markets going to go up or down. And i believe we have this huge outperformance by the u. S. Four months ago, some european markets bottomed out. Greece, italy, spain, france, portugal, they were four months ago at the 20009 lows or everyoe lower. Since then and i recommended at that time to buy and i vote for the first time in my life european stocks which i hate to do, but i did it simply because the valuations were low. Since then, greece is up 65 . Now, im looking at asia. In asia, thailand from the 2009 lows is up 250 . Other markets like the philippines, indonesia, malaysia, singapore, are up by a similar amount. China was at 6,000 index, in 2007 were at 2000. I think china and japan could have a rebound here. If greece could rebound by 65 , the greatest garbage can rewound by 65 , believe me. Im not necessarily saying that chinese economy is improving. On the contrary, its worsening. But you understand the asset al he low indicate as they see this market up and that market down and suddenly money shifts. Y how about here . I think here well go down 20 from the recent top at 4070. Why . The technical position of the market is poor and the corporate earnings are worsening. And i believe that if the statistics were precise, which they arent, because if you measure gdp and then you have a price deflator, it depends how you cam could you late the price deflator to determine real gdp growth, i think theres hardly any growth. Im not debating that the housing have i is improving, but other industries are worsening. So you would fight the fed. Well, lets put this way. I think the Federal Reserve and fiscal policies, not just in the u. S. , have been destabilizing than stabilizing. The idea was you smooth out the business cycle, go up in the excursion of, you release a little bit. So you smooth out the business cycle. But monetary and fiscal policies in the u. S. In the last 0 years have aggravated the ups and downs of economic swings and of course of financial markets. You have much more volatility. Would you call you saw Karl Lagerfeld called hollande an idiot. Is that too strong a word . Interest why like to call people idiots because maybe were all idiots in the financial sector. So why not. But i think hes probably also kind of an academic. And like a law professor . Yeah, Something Like this. And i believe that his policies are misguided. But a friend of mine, he says, marc, each time the socialists come in, the stock market goes up. Happens here sometimes, too. Marc, thank you very much. Great to see you. What are the names of the four rottweilers . I call them all boss or mia. Because in thai, we have the big wife and the small wife. Thank you. Great to have you in the studio. Would you sell europe now or greece particularly after its up 65 . Yes. I think i wouldnt buy it, but on a setback of say the market has rallied say 30 to 65 in these european markets, now i expect a correction but no new lows. I think you made four months ago socalled secular low. Like i believe trowel 9 in the u. S. S p, youre not going to revisit anytime soon. Simply because if you throw money at the system, you support asset prices pp equally. I was in london the other day, may fair. The same here. Luxury properties, theyre not going to collapse. They may go down 20 . But look, sandy weill bought west 15. This 2007, he sold it now for 88 million and he call immediate up the other day and said, listen, youre always on cnbc. Tell joe there is a condo for sale 95 million. So if you want to pay it, youre welcome. If he give me the mortgage. Marc, thank you very much. My pleasure. When we come back, the drop at the pump. And then later this week, dont miss Warren Buffett, hell be live for two hours 7 00 to 9 00 eastern wednesday. 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Bp has paid overthe people of bp twentythreeitment to the gulf. Billion dollars to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. Today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. And bps also committed to america. We support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. Were working to fuel america for generations to come. Our commitment has never been stronger. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. Making headlines, the average price for a gallon of regular falling more than eight cents during the past two weeks. Now

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