Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20121128 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box November 28, 2012

Weren buffett. Hell be joining us with carol lumis. Lets get over to andrew, he has this mornings other top headlines. Good morning to you, becky. The Obama Administration saying that chinas currency remains significantly undervalued, but the u. S. Treasury department is now stopping short of labeling the worlds second biggest economy a currency manipulator. The white house is expected now to send the congress a multibilliondollar request on the recovery from Superstorm Sandy. The storm caused an estimated 71 billion in damages in new york and new jersey, and some congressional aides saying the request for funding would likely be at least 11 billion. The move comes as canada gets close to its decision on whether to approve the transaction. The Energy Companies say discussions with the committee are still in progress, and of course they had to file approval because they have extensive operations in the u. S. Gulf of mexico. The wall street journal reporting that virtue is emerging as the frontrunner to buy knight capital. They would possibly sell off parts of that business. Finally, we cant get away from the story of twinkies. The bakers union of Hostess Brands wants a bankruptcy judge to appoint a chapter 11 trustee to ensure an orderly winddown. The union is saying it objects the allowing incumbent management to supervise the lick wi addition. Have you finished your twinkies . No, were back to saving them now. We need to talk, because i read a piece in the journal today, which gave me a new insight into the jenkins piece . Fantastic piece. Its not the bakers. Its the teamsters. Its that Distribution System which we heard about. One guy can deliver i think you have to deliver of wonder bread, each slice individually, and then it has to be reassem e reassembled by someone different. I mean, we heard that. But maybe its not the bakers. The Distribution System was so antiquated but they breached the agreement with the teamsters. I know. Did you see the piece yet . Its not the bakers, its the teamsters. It couldnt have been a better piece. The ceo said it was the bakers, though. He sort of said it was the battle. The jackets gone now. I want to see what it looks like. It looks good. Youre stepping out. Stepping out. That looks better on camera than it does there. [ laughter ] oftentimes i wear and i say that as somebody who wears things that sometimes look terrible on camera and on air and vice versa. Still, that sounded backhanded. I didnt mean it as a back hand handed you looked at him and then you look there. Sorry. It kind of works with the tie. I think. It kind of works. It does. Shes full of them today. Wow. You have to give him credit because hes wearing something different. And im never going to. I cant. I did do the matt lauer with my hair. Look, im losing it and im going to get it cut shorter. And you have a nice cut. When its a little longer, i feel like people think im like combing it over and covering something up. Look, this is what i got. Im not only the president , im also a client. Similar to yours, except for the eyebrows. Did you get a cut . I got it kcut yesterday. Your on the lebron james schedule. You get it cut every week so that no one notices a change. I try, yes. Theres apparently some stocks to watch early on, one of which is costco reporting a better than expected 6 increase in november same store sales. A retailer also announcing a special Cash Dividend has been declared of 7 a share. Elsewhere, shares of Green Mountain coffee soared after the First Quarter earnings and revenue beat the street. If you dont know, Green Mountain makes those keurig brewing systems and the k cups that go with them. Also the Current Quarter in full year much more than what people were expecting. He was short on that. It came down. And then groupon shares got a boost. Reporting that the company is discussing some management changes, including bringing in a new ceo. The ceo is speaking today in new york. There was this whole big scuttlebutt about whether he was going to cancel because there was this report that said he was leaving. So we will see if maybe he will speak to this issue. Interesting. It will be good to hear him. Hes a character. Complete and utter character. That is a good way to describe him. Lets take a look at the markets this morning. Yesterday, the markets did close at the lows of the day. A lot of concern after harry reid made some comments suggesting that maybe there was not a lot of progress made. Eamon javers has commented saying you shouldnt read too closely into it, but this morning futures are indicated slightly lower once again. In europe, youll see that there are some red arrows there as well. In france, the cac is down by about 12 points. In london, the ftse is off by 17. In germany, the dax is down by about 14. 5 points. In asia overnight, same story. The hang seng was down by. 6 of a percent. The shanghai composite was down by. 9. The biggest loser was the nikkei. Oil prices are slightly weaker, down by about 42 cents. The tenyear note at this hour is yielding 1. 62 . Been watching the dlampl heres something that snuck up on us. The chinese youre going to start saying that . You want me to call it if you start saying this other word, im going to learn how to say it. What made you decide . Im thinking rnd, which is how they lay it out. Im thinking rnb. Okay, if youre going to do it, ill practice. Thats how they do it. I say yuan. If youre ready to step up im not really ready to. Im not going to fall behind in sounding smart. I think ive done that enough. I pick up my own. If im saying it incorrectly that doesnt make me sound smart. If you mumble it youre looking at me to pronounce this correctly. Youre fine as long as its not on the teleprompter. Thats a sign of true intelligence. It means its all up there. Its hard to form yourself into these teleprompter reading things. You should feel bad. No. The other thing is making mispronunciations is part of being a reader. Because you read things. You never read it out loud. Okay. Gold prices a little weaker today. I think theyre down by about 2. 30. Lets talk to another print reporter turned television reporter. Kelly evans is standing by in london this morning across the pond with a little bit of red behind her. Kelly . Yeah, im glad im not the only one skrcrewing up pronunciations all morning. Becky mentioned we saw this weakness. The indexes across the board are lower and have a lot to do still with the mood that was set by harry reid. A little bit of news. We are getting the eu approving the restructuring plans for spains nationalized banks. Four of them, to be specific. Importantly, the eu wants investors to take some of the losses in order to keep the total cost of the restructuring down. Now, its going to mean closing up to 50 of the branch for some of these banks. Bond kia is rallying. As you can see, kind of a mixed reaction more broadly speaking. They are both lower by about 1 . As we work through the ramifications of what the eu is approving here, its going to take some time for investors to figure out whether this deal is in the best interest of Spanish Banks or not. We are going to see assets transferred to spains bond bank. Were waiting for the details on that. A lot of investors expect that request to come some time in materially part of next year. It isnt just the sovereign debt, its still dealing with restructuring its banks and still dealing with the cost of its regions, which need funding. Spain also has to raise 200 billion euros next year. So just a reminder as we deal with the resolution of the issue in greece, spain is right behind and through the door. Back over to you guys. All right, kelly, thank you very much. Weve been watching thousand holidays have been shaping up here. John fulboni is the research cofounder. I know that cyber monday was a big deal. Final numbers had it almost at 1. 5 billion yesterday . Yeah, it was a strong day as we expected, up about 17 . In conjunction with a strong thanksgiving and an Even Stronger black friday, its a really encouraging kickoff to the online season. I know this is the biggest day yet in terms of the holiday shopping, that it was bigger than black friday, but the growth trajectory was a little bit weaker than for black friday and some of the other days leading up to that. Does that mean that some of those days are maybe stealing away from cyber monday and maybe this is going to be a broader shopping season across the board . Yeah, i think thats exactly whats been happening, and wwe seen this now for a couple of years. The retailers are clearly beginning their aggressive promotions earlier than they have in years gone by, so that tends to pull some of the buying forward in the season. At the same time, weve also got the season extending later because of the reliability of shipping, and so its in a sense, i think its kind of flattening out a little bit this season. But if you look at it overall, were expecting to see about a 17 growth. So it will be i think a very encouraging season when all is said and done. Bricks and mortar retailers justified black friday and all the big discounts they offer by figuring that they get people in the stores. They will end up spending money on other things they just see randomly as theyre walking through the aisles and theyll come back again. Whats the logic behind the big deals that the cyber sales the cyber guys are offering . Do you actually spend more on other things when you show up at amazon for a big deal . I think its very possible that could happen, but i think on top of that, youve also got the realization that the online retailers just dont want to let the offline retailers get a leg up on them earlier in the season. So whats been happening, as you look back over the past couple of years, is that the online folks are running their deals, timed to meet the demand thats coming if the offline world. So its really becoming a multichannel world as we go forward here. We want to thank you very much for your time and we will check back in with you as we continue through the holiday season. Okay, thank you. Coming up, we know one of the main Drivers Behind recent stock moves is the uncertainty about the fiscal cliff. But buckle up, our next two guests say the action could soon get even more interesting. And later today, thousands are going to gather in Manhattans Rockefeller Center for the lighting of the Christmas Tree, making any visit to manhattan from here on out basically impossible at night. The annual spectacle has become a world famous symbol of the holidays. I went last night and it was okay. I went two nights ago. From now on i couldnt believe two nights ago, there was no traffic. Its over now. Over. This years tree came from flanders after surviving the strong winds of hurricane sandy. Twins. I didnt see them coming. I have obligations. Cute obligations, but obligations. I need to rethink the core of my portfolio. What i really need is sleep. Introducing the ishares core, Building Blocks for the heart of your portfolio. Find out why 9 out of 10 large professional investors choose ishares for their etfs. Ishares by blackrock. Call 1800ishares for a prospectus which includes investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Read and consider it carefully before investing. Risk includes possible loss of principal. Welcome back to squawk box. We look like were going to have a little bit of red action before things start off. Dow jones looks like it will be off about nine points. Lets talk about some of the headlines this morning. Bp agreeing to sell its interest in a number of gas fields to s abu dhabis interests. We saw some snow here yesterday, but it looked a lot clearer here this morning. A little bit of snow falling around the city. Not the kind that caused too much problems. Thats the good news. The big winter was west milford, new jersey. You saw two to six inches of snow. Not too much to write home about, but its still early in the season. A little bit of sunshine poking out. A few light rain showers and thats about it. Today a drier day. Chilly out there still. Up to 41. 49 here in washington, d. C. Pittsburgh up to about 40. And boston staying in the 30s. Tonight, of course, big event in rockefeller center. Temperatures will be in the 30s. Breezy but clear skies. Nearly a full moon outside as well. The big storm were watching is in the west. Three storms, you can see them pin wheeling here out to the pacific. The rain is now approaching into San Francisco. Northern california and oregon are all going to see very, very heavy rainfall, not just today but all the way through the weekend. Flood watches are out. Sacramento, stockton up toward reading and stretching all the way up into oregon. We could see up to 20 inches of rainfall here, a big broad area of at least a half a foot. Back to you. That is a waste. That should be over colorado and it should be exactly. So we had snow yesterday. Last year we had snow early, it was like halloween and then we never got anymore. Did the snow we had yesterday seem more typical . Any idea about whether that portends that we have some snow this year on the east coast . Last year it was like we used it all up early. We said okay, here we go, its going to be a huge winter and nothing. Were looking at the long range forecast right now, its all warm for most of the country. There are no big snowstorms at least for two or three weeks. But we dont know overall. Beyond that, it gets fuzzier. You cant do like bill murray and blow all that stuff over to colorado. 20 inches of rain. That would be like 50 inches of snow. 20 inches of rain would probably be like 250 inches of snow. You look at pikes peak right now, 14,000 feet there is no snow, anywhere. Its not your fault, really, i guess. Anyway, eric, thank you. Appreciate it. If you have any question about the connection between the fiscal cliff and stocks, Mitch Mcconnell said the democrats are still in campaign mode. Oh no, dont pronounce the e. So its warren. Are we close at all there . Not really . It is warne. Have you been on before . No, i have not been on with you. Then you really havent been on. Sorry. Jim freeman is principal at llc. Im having mood swings about the fiscal cliff because im watching the way it works. And i go between if we did go over at least some of the things that we seem to keep putting off start happening. If we dont go over, i worry that we just take the easy way out and we dont really accomplish we just delay the inevitable. Where are you on that . Well, wed rather see a fist calf stair step. In other words, instead of a cliff, that you reduce the deficit over time in a much more orderly fashion. With a plan, though. With a plan. Exactly. Bowles simpson was a plan. Bowles simpson is so far gone at this point. But when you look at those, they all have some come by neigh of spending cuts and tax increases. The idea is that over a period of time, you basically put the country in a better path, the government in a better path to spending and taxation. What you dont want is the fiscal cliff because that was designed to be something that nobody liked. And the reason is, yes, youve reduced the deficit from about 7 of gdp down to about 4 of gdp, so you move in the right direction really dramatically, but you do it in a way that nobody was happy with exactly where those cuts come from and exactly how the taxes increase. With what youre seeing, and we never know, its almost like a mating dance where youve got the male and a feel of some species its an ugly one. Looks like theyre never going to do it. They get closer and closer. But there is a lot of they back off and they might even look like theyre fighting. But do they eventually, you know, do it . Well, i think certainly everybody hopes so. Because it would be better than if they dont. That didnt help. That wasnt so good. But think about it, there are three alternatives. Not that theres anything wrong with that. Theres three alternatives. They decide that they cant figure it out and they do just push it all off to the future, kick the can down the road, which wouldnt be good because you dont address any of the longterm problems. Theres the we go off the cliff. That also wouldnt be good. I think because the cliff is a whole variety of very specific changes, and everybody wants to pass the amt patch and everybody wants to do the doc fix. There are a bunch of things that everybody agrees want to be done, i think thats where you get into the slicing and dicing and i think thats probably a better way to think about it than a mating dance. Youre still going to get a watered down bill. Theyre talking about pushing it to above 500,000, that that doesnt do anything. If thats the case, it doesnt raise a whole lot of money, particularly when you have the democrats saying they dont want to see any entitlement reform. But durbin, where did he come from . Thats what i mean. Im trying to figure out trying to see his personal situation. Where did he find religion all of a sudden . Hes an obama ally and suddenly hes talking are you looking at all these things very specifically . Looking at the fix and option action. You can tell from the market. The most aggravating thing is that were sitting here talking about the government and what the market is going to do as a function of what the government does. If you look at the volatility markets, i think its incredibly interesting. The market is being very rational. The vix is really a function of liquidity. Liquidity in the system is incredibly stable. The markets are that will significantly drive higher levels, if you look at ted spreads and where bank funding is. Thats the real significant spikes index, so you need to be careful to hedge your portfolios right now. But right now, the markets, the s p markets are really pricing in a very range bound market through january. 1,400 strikes. Its a 60 package. So youre really looking at a 1330 to 1460 type of range. Whats the downside if theres no deal . The market is really not expecting much of a downside regardless. I mean, you have continuous fed intervention. Youve got a new bank of england chair. You think on january 1st, january 2nd, january 3rd with no deal. I think we could see 1350 or so. But thats the low . Thats the bottom for you . The talk for a 100, 200point correction is clearly extremely outside the balance of what people are expecting. This isnt talk then. The idea that you go over the cliff and theres this enormous pressure, you think its not there. The comment every account that i talk to, which i think is very critical, is we do get back to very cheap equity valuations in general, and really, if we start to release some of this regulatory i dont know if taxes is the biggest concern, but some of the

© 2025 Vimarsana