Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20121220 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 20, 2012

Feel a Little Something . You had that, joe, two weeks ago, right . Exactly what you had. You didnt you remember i remember bridesmaids, right . Im not sure what all that came out of. I had both going. You didnt have both going . You are the just you were hurling. I was, i was. In the middle of the night. I had to send an email to the producers. Its very weird. Its not even a 24hour thing. No, i will say it was going by when the show was still going on. We have a pro gun advocate on. You didnt throw up when okay. By the way, a viewer has offered to take me shooting in new jersey at a shooting club. I saw a lot of stuff. Im taking him up on it. But we have news to get him up to. Some people hold that Second Amendment thing, they actually think it means something. They took a little bit of offense. Anyway, theres a lot to talk about. We are going to talk about the latest fiscal cliff developments out of washington. But before we get to that, why dont we start with our day anticipates top story. The i. C. E. And the nyse are in talks. The numbers put the price tag at about 8 billion. We watched this now, you said you were watching this last night with kudlow, right . I did. Did you think david faber . Did you think when was book ending . On this, it went up last night. I dont know why this chart is showing no movement. It went up six points. Yeah, right. That wouldnt even bring those because we watched. Faber was talking about that last night. Maybe if we show the prior day. That was the prior day. Theres a glitch or something. That was the prior day that didnt show the after hours trading card. It was right about 720 been i think, wasnt it . And all this followed and its a big story. Well, it is. Its interesting because its Nyse Euronext. And this isnt the first time that i. C. E. Did this. No. You will are ebb that i. C. E. Made a joint unsuccessful bid for control of the nyse last year. When the two withdrew their offers, they cited regulatoregu. Interesting, though, as margins get thinner and thinner, you see more of this consolidation. Right. Less of a chance and we can talk to david about this at 7 00, but this transaction will be stopped by regulators. Interestingly, this is being driven more by the derivatives world. Has nothing to do with the set that is our you know, the exchange. But why does it go back down there . Thats weird. It shouldnt go back down. Did you see, i tweeted that i would be doing kudlow and i said, apparently andrew gave something to kudlow. And people were writing in all this, you know, weird stuff. I was just saying that you were sick, maybe no, maybe kudlow has the same thing because it goes around where people work. But they were how did andrew give it to and does that kudlow is going to turn into a liberal . They were saying those really weird things. You did a great job, i have to say. I was drinking gatorade and chicken masa ball stew. You were . Yes. I love it. So do i. Its carby, though, isnt it . Yes. Anyway, lets get to washington news. House Speaker John Boehner is calling a vote on his socalled plan b. It would block tax increases on everyone january 1st except for those making more than 1 million. Boehner hopes it will pressure the president to make concessions. He can call on the senate to pass that or he can be responsible for the largest tax increase in history. Others are arguing that republics have painted themselves in a corner. Take the deal. You are hurting people in order to give another advantage to folks who dont need help. And as of this morning, the fiscal cliff countdown, standing at 11 days. There it is on the board. We run it now even on the side of the screen during the day. Its one of the things, you say to yours, it is coming. Theoretically. The end of the world countdown is one day. Once we get through that we did pass that. We did. The journal has an interesting piece about small businesses. The president s plan would affect only 4 . But did you see how much of the income from small bess that 4 represents . 56 . Oh, really. Wow. And then the boehner Million Dollar only affects 2 of small businesses, but its still 40 of the income and, you know, the journal is able to find some people that said, you know, ive made between as the guy who own is it who pays himself under that system not under the corporate system, i made over 500,000 but less than 1 million and they wont sxan. They were able to find people that even though they say only 4 or not under the its dpunny because everybody on the left hates grover. And grover, now theyre making fun of him for saying its okay to do this. So they dont like it when he wont raise it and when he says it doesnt constitute a tax raise, they think that he backed off on his pledge or is finding a way around it. Yesterday when you were asking for the leftists to start screaming and they were yesterday. Did you see the pictures of president obama and nancy pelosi saying the idea that they would take the cpi is infuriating because they say it takes money away from those who are most in need. The president s plan gives a bimp to those at the lowest end of the spectrum. Crudeman, and huffington post, we still have a long way to go to the middle. You think . We can still stay way left and be to the right of the huffington post. But the thing about the boehner that they vote on today, it doesnt necessarily mean its going anywhere in the senate. The president said ty theyre not taking it. But if it shows that boehner can corral his caucus, then it shows he can do it with the president does. Which means if the president wants a deal, he sees boehner can corral his caucus. And the president said, were only a couple hundred billion away. The stimulus was 800 billion. This is a couple hundred billion over ten years. But 2011 was the same story. 400 billion over ten years. I know. And boehner had three to one. And now boehner said suddenly one to one seems like a good idea. Well, if you include the cuts that have been affected including interest, savings on interest. I think thats what did it. But the hard core guys, were going to have harry wilson on. Did you see what he says about those kutsdz . No. The deal boehner was close to clast year was so much better in terms of putting us on the right path in terms of revenue that he likes well, then they should have taken that deal the last time around. Well, the deal on his side, but the deal went away with the 400 billion. The irs is warning more than 1100 million taxpayers could face refund delays if fiscal cliff negotiations fail to hit the emt. That number is greater than estimated. Typically coming agrees to just the tax for inflation to prevent unintended taxpay herbs from being hit by it. But this year, the amts fate is tied by the fiscal cliff negotiations. You cant even imagine all the consequences for how this is going to pay out. Lets get a check on the markets this morning. Yesterday, you did see a drop in the stock market. The dow was down by close to 90 plus points. S p futures up by about 3 points. If you take a look right now at where things stand in europe, youll see that the ftse is barely higher. But you do see a bit of a decline for germany and france and modest moves across all of these markets. The bank of japan easing Monetary Policy again today, announcing an increase of its asset buying and Lending Program by more than 118 billion. That move was widely expected as part of the reason that you had seen the yen under quite a bit of pressure, yesterday, at least. Youll see right now that in japan, the market there actually closed down by just over 1 , 1. 2 almost. The hang seng and the shanghai composite were slightly higher. Oil prices this morning, youll see right now, are down by about 4 cents to 89. 94, so you have things to pick up in those prices over the last couple of days. And the tenyear note at this point which yesterday was yielding above 1. 8 , dropping down to 77. 2 . Finally, take a look at the dollar and gold. Yen is at 83. 99. Gold prices this morning with all these movements in the currency markets up by about 1. 10. Winter storm draco is moving across the United States threatening retailers and Holiday Travelers. Paul, we know that sometimes the storms could be a good thing for some retailers, particularly if youre selling things from home depot or the likes of those. What is the storm shaping up . And what does it mean . Theres always a good side and a bad side to weather events during the Holiday Season. But i think the biggest impact is the fact that last year we had no weather. It was completely mild. We had literally no snowstorms and for a lot of retailers, they benefited that because traffic becomes a huge issue. So anytime you lose a day or two, its not good. Today is just going to be chaos and sort of the chicago area and that whole metro area. So well probably lose a day or two. And then is it moving here to the east coast for the weekend . The good news is by the time it moves through over the next day or two, the east coast will be pretty dry. So i think the last weekend of the year is going to be good from a traffic perspective. It is going to be much, much colder. And, again, thats a tailwind for retailers to the point you just made. Because last year while traffic was up, demand for seasonal goods was way down. This year, that final weekend, which is a huge shopping weekend will be colder. There may even be a flake or two that falls on christmas day. So that part of it is a bit of a silver lining. Although were looking at potentially a bit of another storm that could impact that post christmas sale. What storm is that . That one, if we were to name it, it would be winter storm euclid. The forecast models are still shaky on it. But its a storm that would impact chicago, potentially the snow and those kind of things. Still in the fiscal month of disease which could, again, take a haircut off of traffic for the 408 day shopping season. So maybe good news for a pair of retailers who may have had problems trying to sell things like sweateres and coats . Absolutely. The comparison to last year is so easy because last year was one of the warmest decembers on record. And while traffic was good for qsrs and optimal retailers benefited, the people that are the Department Stores and things like that that are selling Seasonal Items sort of were lagging as it related to selling those seasonal clothes. And this year weve had a much easier comp. November was colder. First part of december was warm, but now were going to sort of finish the Holiday Season with temperatures where they should be this time of year which is going to help move those products. Paul, thank you very much. Its good to talk to you. Thanks, becky. Draco was a greek legislator, the first legislator of athens in ancient greece. And he replaced the prevailing system at the time of oral, law and blood feud by a written code of rules that could only be enforced by a court. The first court system. So the rules, because they were written, were hard to get around so they were draconian rules, which is where draconian draco. Wasnt he in harry potter, too . He was also in harry potter. I dont know. Was he . I think he was the bad kid growing up. And, anyway, with that out of the way and the world hurdling to an end tomorrow, still to come, if you want to know whether or not you should be optimistic about a fiscal cliff deal oh, draco malfoy. Oh, yeah, the young bad kid . The blond kid. He was so good he was bad. Check out the markets on any given day and were going to do just that. Tell whats happening with the fiscal cliff. [ penelope ] i found the best cafe in the world. Nespresso. Where i never have to compromise on anything. Where just one touch creates the perfect coffee. Where every cappuccino and latte is only made with fresh milk. And where the staff is exceptionally friendly. Nespresso. What else . You wont just find us online, youll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. So when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. Because personal Service Starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. Our support teams are nearby, ready to help. Its no wonder so many investors are saying. [ all ] im with scottrade. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Take a look at u. S. Equity futures. See how were setting up the day. Dow would open up about 36 points higher. S p would he about 3 points higher and the nasdaq opening up 9 points higher. Toyotas 2013 camry receiving a poor crash test rating today from the Insurance Industry group. Meantime, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety ordered high marks to hondas redesigned accord sedan. The 2012 camry has been named a top safety pick. This year, only two cars received ratings of good in the test, the 2013 accord and the 2013 suzuki kashasi . Is that how you say that . I dont know that one. The most dangerous rating was assigned to gm and it was to stakeholders. Well have harry on to talk about that. We have to figure out how much taxes would have been paid if they didnt have the ability to never pay a tax, too. Dont we have to add that on . And the same thing with aig. And citigroup. But the Companies Never went bankrupt. I happen. And they still got the. Do you want to do that . I dont know. We dont have to. I was jus just thinking about it if we were worried about taxpayers. It probably counts up, particularly when youre looking at i dont want you to do extra. Id like to know it. All right. Lets get back to the winter storm pounding much of the United States. Reynolds wolf joins us with the latest. Is it draco, dracko . Whatever way you choose. Its draco. Lets call it draco. This is piling up with a lot of snowfall in parts of the midwest. Got rainfall in parts of the southeast. We have tornado warnings in effect for parts of arkansas. But the snow is really the big story where visibility is almost nonexistence in part of iowa. In des moines, i spoke with a guy at the National Weather service there. He was saying visibility, couldnt see anything. Its hard to see. Its awful. Imagine being out on the roadways. On parts of i80, its startling. Could see up to 12 inches or more near green bay. Southward of chicago, chicago has gone 290 days without any measurable snowfall. That could change today. Later this afternoon, we expect the temperatures to drop 2 to 4 inches in chicago. Neighborhood north might get more. Its rain for millions of americans, but that snow in the upper midwest is quiet. As we make our way towards the west, youll notice dryer air moving into the Central Plains and out west we have another storm system affecting the pacific northwest. It could be up to a foot of snow in portions of the cascades. Back to you guys. All right. Reynolds, its actually draco. I did look it up. I cant keep the two straight, but draco, traco. You guys make the rules and ill just follow you. Not relate t to the lawmaker at all. Lets check on the markets and the economy. Mark vitner wears suspenders and its managing director oh, and it was before you came up. And all you really need, what are those things called, andrew . Which . Flare. Flare. Thats right. You can have them and one of them can be rise above. Joining us, lou brien is joining us from chicago, a strategist at drw trading. Mark, believe it or not, yesterday i watched General Electric lower two Straight Days because apparently some people are downgrading it or at least making some negative comments. And maybe already about the fiscal cliff. Art, do you think thats actually happening to the economy at large because were not in 2013 yet, but because theyre already cutting back . Well, there may be some relation that growth is going to be slower in the Fourth Quarter, in the first half of 2013. And just about any resolution that we get on the fiscal cliff. And, you know, i think that the there was a lot of optimism at the start of the week and it faded a little bit. I dont think all that much has changed. Theyre probably not going not going to get a final deal done until the early days of january. And that way, theyre able to that way theyre able to say theyre voting for a tax cut instead of a tax increase and everybody is happy. Really. So who wants to go over the cliff more, then . Both sides . I think they want to get a little bit over the cliff. Both of them. Both sides. Technically theyre a little bit over the cliff, but if they get it done before the Congress Ends noon on january 3rd, i wouldnt be surprised if they voted on the morning of january 3rd right before the Congress Ends. But its going to get done and we know that taxes are going to increase. Were going to see some minor trimming around spending probably changing the adjustment of Social Security, maybe some eligibility requirements on medicare. But the relatively minor changes there on spending and putting off the sequester, the net result of that along with Social Security, the health care taxes, ending of federal funding for Unemployment Insurance, thats going to shade about 1. 5 Percentage Points off of Economic Growth in 2013. So were starting from a position where we didnt have all that much growth in the last year and were going to shave 1. 5 . Well get a little bit of a payback because theres some relief that we finally got a deal. Right. And you could unleerve some of the maybe analyst fears, dan, some Corporate Cash maybe, lou, do you think that we can offset some of the yeah. If you had a credible deal that puts the u. S. On a longterm plan thats a big if. It is a big if. Its not going to be a longterm plan, is it . I agree with you. Short of that, we were going to have to come back and revisit this until there is a credible deal. I think what mark said i agree with. No matter what we come up, bl be some amount of more taxes and less spending. Ahead of that, it is a longer deal for the economy. If they would to get a longer term deal, we could see over the long run the path that were on. As it is now, were going to

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