Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20131108 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box November 8, 2013

The reports polled saying the economy likely added 120,000 jobs last month. Thats the estimate and the baseline to play against. The employment rate is seen ticking higher to 7. 4 and the numbers expected to show the Government Shutdown delayed hiring and forced some workers, of course, to stay home. Also in the news this morning, blackberry will be paying its new interim ceo a base salary of a million bucks, a bonesup up to twice that amount and stock awards potentially worth some 58 million. John chen is credited with turning around sybase in the late 1990s. His shares only begin to vest after three years with the company. And the majority of those will vest an he completes his fifth year with the company. If hes fired without cause, he will be paid up to 6 million. And given that becky still has her blackberry, i think thats a good incentive to keep hers on for a while. Salix pharma will buy santarus for the 2. 6 million. Joe, over to you, sir. Lets start with twitter. The first day of trading on the nyse drove the companys market value to around 25 billion. Forget what the multiples of revenue is. I think its like 50 or something. The stock closed at 44. 90 after hitting a session high of 50, nearly doubled the ipo price of 26. And were obviously going to talk about this today. It was very orderly. Beautifully done. Commend near hour in the new york Stock Exchange. Heres my problem. The big guys, once again, got all the profits. The institutions. Its weird how facebook, you would have thought, worked better for the little guy, except the little guy was able to buy on the opening, then it went down and they got screwed. Right. In this case, the little guy was not able to get in until it already opened at 45. So all that move from 26 to 45 they didnt get to capture it. If it had opened at 30 and the public could have gotten in at 30 and then they could have participated. So once again, the rich guys, the little guy didnt make any of these profits. In facebook, only the little guys that held on can i what would the other side be . The other side would be that the big guys really are representing the little guys. Because theyre in mutual funds and stuff like that. Thats the business. Thats the business. But a lot of it is hedge fund and theres the little guy is not really is is not qualified to be in most of the hedge funds. But the hedge fund money is coming from institutions and the institutions individuals. I never thought id see you as a trickle down guy. But here you are. Here it is. This is your version of trickle down. Im trying. Im trying. Otherwise, we would have nothing to debate this morning. Whats interesting is that the market sold off because and we have the discussion yesterday if this is really frothy. I wanted it to be frothy because its been a while since cab drivers were talking about the stock market and people were excited about making money in the stock market. Unfortunately, i dont think too many cab drivers were talking about this. I wish they were. Right. But it did get frothy and combined with the fed and people talking about that this was all pushed up by an accommodative fed around the world, the market ended up high. The ecb cut rates yesterday, the fed is still moving and the market closed down 150 after twitter priced. People do start saying, wow, there are some toppy things happening here. Maybe they take a little bit off. When is the last time we had our 10 er . We havent. And i need to do some more work on this. There were two public funds that owned private shares of twitter and they actually went down yesterday. Thats weird, too. Weird, too. And watching the other ones that were totally overheated, they went down, as well. Disney, i dont know, do we really care about a Small Company that barely does anything any more . No. Disney is pretty important. Yeah. Disney, old media. An awesome company. Very well managed. Posting better than expected results after the close. The nebs were held by higher visitor spending at theme parks, increased Consumer Product sales and monsters university, its summer hit. Ceo bob iger on cnbc yesterday talked about the results in delivering some good news for star wars fans. The new Star Wars Film will be released on december 18th, 2015. I thought that was later than normal. No . I read something in i think that was later than normal. Yeah. Disney said it would delay the new star wars release. I dont know whether thats good news. In other stocks to watch, groupon earnings beat analyst estimates. Strong growth in north america helped offset a decline in international revenue. Lets check on the markets this morning. Its their turn, probably. No, theyre up, good. They dont need to follow wa we did yesterday, hopefully. Actually, those are our markets. Well see whether europe i would imagine they were down, but were going to get back a little of it today. Oil, hoping that it off set some the of the headwinds with the consumer this christmas season, the tenyear has been back at 2. 55 or so today, 2. 61 . The dollar got a lot of help yesterday from draghi, but the euro has improved from where it was. Finally, gold down somewhere around 1300 or so. 1308, not doing much today. Time for the Global Markets report. Ross westgate standing by in london. And, you know, with all the discussion about twitter, some of it is trying to figure out how we monetize the international, how the company here monetizes the International Reach of twitter. Because its a social if phenomenon. Have you tweeted today, ross . I have yet to tweet all the great things that weve been talking about today. Ive been reading tweets a lot. Okay. Its a i mean, the thing is, joe, for us in the news, i think twitter is a fantastic resource. Its great for research. And, you know, theres a lot of on people, of course, that dont tweet who just read tweets, as well. Theres that question mark, how much can you do commercial activity on it before you sort of put people off the service . Well find that out. Ross, im with you. I wouldnt join a club that would have me as a member and im not interested in reading anything i have to say. And i cant imagine anyone so i dont want to and im also scared that one of these days the slightest thing in this world today, i mean, if you dont consider every anlel gle what you say and who you might ruffle some feathers, they will put it somewhere. Its really dangerous. So im just using it as a news source at this point. I dont i may retweet, but then i have plausible deniability on that. Yeah. Absolutely. And, actually, were in the news business, you use twitter purely for doing, you know, the sort of stuff we discussed on air, anyway. You know, i dont think anybody really cares what im doing socially. At least i hope not. In fact, i dont want to talk about it. No, because it would be hard to explain, number one, and number two, its probably pretty boring. I was right about the red, wasnt i . Exactly. The boar coredome factor is key. We are down in european trade, around about 7 to 2 decliners outpacing advancers at the moment. The ftse yesterday was down about 44 points. Quite a wild session we had during thursdays trade. The ecb surprised us all with that rate cut bringing the rephi down. They narrowed the cord door as well as deposit rates. At that point, stocks rallied. Then in the afternoon session, the u. S. Open and we got that print of gdp number. The u. S. Stocks went down, it brought us down, the ftse 100 off 44 points. Right now, down 28 points this morning. Xetra dax off 0. 6 . Really, in france, the s p has come out and downgraded the country to aa from aa plus, really cite ago lack of progress in reforms. It was a shock. Now, as a result, french debt did fall off in price. Yields went a little bit higher this morning. Particularly at the short end. We saw a move up in yields. But the key point is that s p putting this Rating Outlook on stable and some ways market viewers could take the view okay, were stable. But as you might expect, the french president coming out and saying this isnt justified. Although i think most analysts would believe that it was. Now, we had a volatile eu euro dollar session, as well. Yesterday it was down to 1. 3295. We saw that s p downgrade put more pressure on it this morning. But ahead of the jobs report, weve got back up to 1. 3426. But youve got to remember just two weeks ago, we were at a twoyear high for euro dollar at 1. 3833. So down to to below 1. 33. Quite a big move in a short period of time. The volatility in this ross rate in particular set to continue. Thats where we stand right now. Back to you. Thank you, ross. Appreciate that. We are now going to get back to Lincoln Center in the middle of new york city where becky is with ron barren this morning. Good morning, beck. Good morning, andrew. Joining us this morning is ron barron, the chairman and ceo of barron capital. Hes the fund manager of the four star barron growth fund. Ron, it is a pleasure to be here this morning. Thank you for having us here. Thank you for inviting me. We love coming to this conference. We love checking in with you. And over the last four or five years, i was trying to go back and set the date. But i think it was just over four years ago. Maybe you had been saying it before. But i remember vividly, you saying that this was going to be one of the best opportunities to buy stocks si s since you began career back in the 70s. That you were looking at things at generational lows for stocks. And youve been right this entire time. Youre a value guy, though, and it start to wonder when you look at the markets after these incredible highs, is it a lot tougher to find value out there today . Growth value rices. Is it tougher . Its always not easy to find things, but when youre looking around and you have a certain process that you use and youre trying to find businesses that have competitive advantages and have great management teams and big Growth Opportunities, theyre everywhere. We were talk before, we have companies coming to our conference this year making presentations and theyre five businesses and there are varied industries. Colstar, fairfax, all sorts of businesses and weve invested 619 million over six years ago on average. Those businesses have appreciated about 1 billion. I think in the next five years, those companies will make another 1. 5 billion. So everywhere you look, theres companies, we were talking before that people who started businesses become worth billions and billions of dollars. This country is incredible that those sort of things happen in national gaming. He was telling me last night about how when he started, he found the idea about racetracks. They were unprofitable in pennsylvania. And he realized that there were people who come there who were gaming and customers were dying. No one was consolidating racetracks. He was. So he went from a small marginally profitable business to 6 billion over since 1994. Met him in 1994. We began to invest in him when we got an offer to buy his company for 7 billion or 8 billion. When the mccrashed, we got to buy the stock at great prices. Everywhere you look, people have created businesses out of thin air, worth billions and billions of dollars because they had a vision and have been able to follow it and this country allows you to do that. Did you change your investing style during just after the market crash when things got a whole lot cheaper . Did you deploy more capital or was it the same way you were looking at things, just looking for Growth Opportunities at value prices . Well, were always trying to find businesses that have these big opportunities to become much larger. Were not playing the market. I think its very difficult to determine when the market is high, when its low. Right now, it just happens to be at a good price and it was an extraordinary price five or six years ago. But what were trying to do is just find businesses and once we find them, they have these opportunities in developing as we expect, then hang on. So most people buy and sell all the time. The average mutual fund, the average hedge fund is trying to just make a little bit of money every day to constantly move ahead. Theyre not really looking out five or ten years. Thats our perspective. Baron growth funds, the average Holding Period there is nine years. The average holding for a average mutual fund is seven months. So when you have a different perspective, youre asking for different sorts of information. Everyone else is focussing on what is the next quarter going to be . What is the stock market going to do . Whats the Federal Reserve going to taper about . All were trying to do is find businesses and it just happens in the environment right now is very benign and people are very afraid because of what happened before. They think it could happen again. So as a result of that, theyve pulled back. But the reason it happened should i go on . Yeah, yeah, please do. So the reason it happened was in 1999, the stock market was selling for 33 times earnings. Its now 14 times or 14 1 2. So its 33 times. And in that period of time from 99 to now, Companies Earnings have about doubled and the stock market is up 20 or 30 . From 2007, its up maybe 10 . If people say how much its up, its only up from where it crashed and now its 10 higher than it was in 2007. So you really dont think things are getting frothy at this point. Thats what some people are concerned about, youre right, its up 10 from where it crashed, but we have seen a rapid rise from the bottom. Yes. You have a rapid rise because people are not indebted to you, theyre losing money every day. One known you have is the value of your money is going to fall continuously. Its always going down. And every single currency thats ever existed has defaulted or devalued or died, every single one, including the dollar. I was looking this morning on the news when i was working out and they were just talking about obama proposing to raise the minimum wage to 10. When i was 14 and working papers for the first time as a caddie, it was 80 cents. Now its 10. So everything ten times in 50 years. There were some people who look at the market and say, look, the only reason its risen this far is because of artificial inducement from the fed, because pe is out there, because theyre buying 85 billion a month. Thats the reason stocks look so attractive. Youre making an argument that theyre cheap based on stock val you autoati val valuations alone. What the federal government is doing is theyre trying to keep Interest Rates below the rate of intlagz. And when you do that, then you deleverage. You make your money up. So, for example, everyone is now talking about growth of the economy. What are they saying . 2 . 2 , right. And would you be surprised to know that this year its 6. 8 . Although bullard 6. 8 inflation . 6. 8. The gdp is this year going to be 16. 8 trillion. Theres your 15. 7 at 6. 5, 6. 6, 6. 7, pretty surprising. The reason for that big difference is inflation. 2 inflation . I dont understand that. Inflation is about maybe the cost of your computer has gone down or the cost of chips has do gone down, but look at the price of your house. The government has to make debt worth less. Were paying a lot less. We have more debt and were paying less to carry it than before. Let me ask you this very quickly, because we have pore time on this later. But if the fed were to begin tapering, there are a lot of people who think the market would react sharp to that. Stocks are only worth what everybody thinks theyre worth. Do you think if the fed pulls back, it begins tapering and eventually raises rates, how is that going to impact the market . The Federal Reserve is obviously going to some day stop doing it. I can its not even necessarily obvious that they will, but i presume that they will. The rates are so far below where they normally are. Youre now in a situation where the economy has too much leverage and they have to make it worth less and they have to make it affordable. If Interest Rates are where they normally are, interest costs would be twice as high as they were in our gdp. As a result, that would be a big penalty to growth in the economy. You have to get people to work. You have to give them jobs. And you have to be able to create jobs. So what youre doing when youre investing in these kind of companies with people with vision, companies that this whole conference is about vision. The idea behind it is when youre investing in companies, those are people creating jobs. Were going to continue this conversation. Were fortunately enough to be here with ron throughout the morning. Right now, andrew, ill send it back over to you. Thank you, becky. One more of todays top stories that were focusing on, a super typhoon is slamming into the philippines. Reynolds wolf joins us with more on that. Good morning, guys. We are watching this massive system. It is the most powerful storm that we have on the planet. Winds of 165 Miles Per Hour. Pressure, again, very low. At this time, the movement is moving to the west at 25 Miles Per Hour. Thats pretty quick for a tropical system. Now, theres a couple reasons why it has begun to weaken over the last several hours. Thats basically because of two things. One, the center moved over on land, which kept it away from its primary power source, that being the warm water. The second thing is you have some pretty high elevation with some of the mountains into the philippines and that disrupts that circulation. So if youre away from the power source, you tend to weaken a little bit and thats going to be the situation with this particular storm. Now, it is going to weaken, but not dramatically so. Only to a category four with winds of 150 Miles Per Hour. Note the time frame, too. Thats going to be early saturday morning. Then it continues more of the westnorthwesterly track, making landfall, a second landfall in vietnam with a category two winds, winds of 100 Miles Per Hour. By time we get to tuesday of next week, winds at 25. Even though the winds are going to die down, you still have a lot of threats with this. One of the big tlepts youre going to have is this is going to be a massive rainmaker. And when you get into the Higher Elevations of parts of the highlands of vietnam, back into laous and even into thailand and cambod cambodia, were talking about heavy rain. Same story here in parts of southeast asia. And with that, you get the mudslides, the flooding, obviously, all kinds of problems compliments of this massive system. Back to you. Thanks, reynolds. There was a chance when it was swirling a

© 2025 Vimarsana