The worst days weve seen in months. The s p posted the first threeday losing streak in two months. The dow logged the first backtoback declines in a month. The dow transports dropped about 2 for the worst day in two months and all of this was, again, as you saw the crude oil prices pushing higher. The dow futures are indicated up by about 13 points. Take a look at whats happening in the early trade in europe. Red arrows there, as well. Biggest declines at least from a percentage basis coming from the ftse in london down close to 1 . In asia overnight, the markets that you are watching did see green arrows, in fact, the shanghai up to close to 1 , nikkei up close to. 8 . And here in the United States looking at the bond market, youll see right now that tenyear note is yielding 2. 95 . The dollar this morning, down against both the euro and the pound. Its trading against the yen. The euros at 1. 3572. And gold prices yesterday rallied by about 1 . That was the best day in almost three months, settled at a threeweek high. This morning, theyre giving back a little bit, down 1. 50 to 1,272 an ounce. Yesterday, we were down 1. 25, and we had 270, and i was thinking, uhoh, interest rate. The bonds were rallying. I think thats kind of good. When the market goes down, at least you dont compound the problems by saying, uhoh, here go rates because of inflation. And we talked to a lot of people yesterday. I think its oil this time around. Jim paulson thinks if there is a selloff, itll come because rates rise too rapidly. He was talking about, he was talking about the reasons its not going to sell off and saying we dont have the it was like he was saying we dont have these things present. So thats it was good news. Yeah. Its good news that the good news he was talking about if we did get a selloff, but we didnt. This is the story. Lets get more details on the issue that is facing the markets. Insurgents gaining more ground, taking two more towns in eastern providence. And president obama threatening air strikes to halt the advance toward baghdad. Our chief International CorrespondentMichelle Carusocabrera is here with more on what it all means. Big headlines. The markets very worried about disruption of supply. But counterintuitively, theres an increasing possibility that the increasing situation in iraq leads to more oil coming out of iraq in the short to medium term. We will get to that in one second. Let me go through the headlines. Where are the rebels . They took two eastern cities. What exactly the United States going to do . We dont know, the president has said all options on the table, but then quickly said that didnt mean u. S. Military boots on the ground. What youre looking at here, video of refugees from mosul going into kurdistan. And some of them are going back because mosul is now calm now that the rebels have taken it. The rebels are sunni, the inhabitants are also sunni. Once the Iraqi Military disappeared, the fighting disappeared, as well. The u. N. Held a press conference in baghdad yesterday, no, actually earlier today saying something must be done. What that will be, we dont know. This is the video of the press conference. I guess we dont have it. Now, to the counterintuitive idea that we might get more oil out of iraq. Lets show you the map of iraq. Show you where the fightings been and the Oil Production is. Weve got that up on the wall. Mosul, thats where the refinery was taken over, fallujah, thats where the fighting has been. Lets go to the next map where the Oil Production is within the country. Northeast towards kurdistan, southeast in the south. Two important thoughts here, nobody believes the rebels are going to get south, that far south, two of the three Major Oil Fields are. Theres only 1700 of them, they think. They cant control the place. 1700 insurgents . Exactly. So right now, in the south, oil, no disruptions to oil supply. Lets go to kurdistan. This is super important. If you look at the possibility of disintegration, everybodys talking about kurdistan. Wants to be independent, filled with kurds. Not arabs, not persians. Generally speaking, they have wanted to export their own oil for a long time, the Central Government of iraq has not wanted them to do that. Fought them tooth and nail, taking themg to court, et cetera. Giving them too much power. Yeah. Exactly. Too much money that the Iraqi Government would like to have. However, the Iraqi Government needs the kurds right now because they have a real army, 170,000 that did not abandon their posts, that did not disappear like the Iraqi Military did. In fact, when the Iraqi Military disappeared in kirkuk, guess who took over . The kurds. The kurds are protecting that city. I spoke with the minister of external affairs for kurdistan last night. I said, is there any chance you guys are ever giving up control of kirkuk again in the future . Why would we do that . Kirkuk is safe because of us. It also gives them control of a big oil city. And now, more importantly, they have leverage. Central government of iraq, maliki needs them and so this may be the moment where he says, okay, you can export. Consider this. There are two tankers controlled by the kurds sitting out in the ocean right now. A Million Barrels of crude each theyve been trying to sell that the turks helped them get out there, but they havent been able to sell because countries concerned about legal issues. If theyre given the go ahead, now, you immediately get 2 Million Barrels on the market right away and the kurds can get production up pretty darn quickly and export it through turkey with a new pipeline with the deal they have. And they can effectively protect the oil fields theyre in charge of . Oh, absolutely. Extremely well trained. The kurds will deny the u. S. Trained them but the u. S. Definitely trained them. And theres clearly a loyalty there that did not exist with the iraqi army, which right now are mostly shia. And they didnt want to be in sunni areas where they werent wanted. Thats why a city like mosul can be taken over by 1700 rebels. I get the temporary increase in the north. Permanent increase in the north. Well, you dont know, though. Theyve got the facilities, the ability to ramp up. What happens in the south . In the south . Okay. I dont think they get there. I think production stays the same. I think the problem in the south is if you have this instability, you dont get the longterm investments. The idea was that by 2017, iraq should be producing 12 Million Barrels per day. Up from 3 million right now. That was just going to take the the oils there, theyve got so much of it. The infrastructure yeah. But if you have instability, you dont get the foreign direct informsment you need. Dropped to 9 Million Barrels per day, now 7 Million Barrels a day. What happens now . I guess when we were going to liberate the iraqi people from Saddam Hussein and the flowers were going to be thrown at our troops, i guess thats off. Thats off the table, from what i understand. The entities at play here democracy would never work because between the sunnis and shiites. People say you break it, you own it. And its so broken. I can see the president is between we used to say that between a rock and a hard place. But he really is. Because what were going to talk to who says our interests are aligned with iraq, so we probably want to try to do something. But i think the country probably doesnt have much of a stomach. Because what if air strikes dont work and we start thinking we need to go deeper and you Start Talking about boots on the ground. Theyre too violent. The president at this point can still say, look, this thing was broken by my predecessor. We were there for we couldnt try, we couldnt stay there forever. There was no guarantees it was going to work. Drew the lines after world war ii, right . Right. All you three types of people are going to live together even though they didnt want to. Lets talk to a Senior Security fellow, doug was the director for iraq at the National Security council during the bush and obama administrations. He spent extensive time in iraq, including an army tour in baghdad and fallujah in 2004 and 2005. Do you expect us to lend some help to iraq at this point in any military way . At this point . Well, weve been helping iraq militarily for some time. We sell them weapons. Were still providing some training for them outside the country and having a third party, you know, training people. But air strikes. You do . Yeah. Too early to tell. Thats certainly the only way we can impact this crisis in the near term. In the longer term, we can talk about more training and more weapons and there are weapons in the pipeline. But in the shortterm, really the only option on the table is air strikes, yes or no . And you point out that if youre a young jihadist that you arent even after you dont want to go to old al qaeda. This is your new group. These are the happening guys, right now, which is great. So this is like al qaeda 2. 0 or something. This is the group youd want to join. So theyre going to there will be a migration of terrorists of this group . I think thats been happening for some months now. If youre a 16yearold young jihadist who wants to make a name for yourself, if you want to hang out in the mountains of afghanistan or pakistan, we hadnt heard from them in months or go to fight in iraq and syria . Thats it. So do you hear what im saying, though. I thought given our the sacrifices that we made to get as far as we got in baghdad, i thought the president would be, you know, very worried about giving those gains back. But i think his base in the left would say this is not your fault, mr. President , you did the best you could. And dont, you know, dont be drawn into reaccelerating americas role in iraq right now. I think he can get by with that. I think domestically, you may well be right. Itll be interesting over the next couple of days to see how our very real interests in iraq and syria now and theyre not becoming an Islamic State and iraq and syria, thats a real thing that exists on the ground and that can push welltrained terrorists out throughout the world. How that bumps up against the domestic politics which dont want which very much want have you seen much evidence we will, in other words, do the right thing for our longterm interests versus doing the politically expedient thing for our domestic have you seen much evidence that will go the right way in recent Foreign Policy decisions . I think its still inside the black box of the lighthouse, its hard to say which way its going to come out of there. I wouldnt want to be making that decision, obviously. But can i ask . Yes. What do you think happens with kurdistan . Do they become independent as a result of this . Or get more autonomy that they want . Probably not in the shortterm. Again, i heard your discussion about the two tankers out in the gulf. Ive been watching them, you know, motor around there for a couple of days now. I see no indications that baghdad will back off the insistence that all Oil Production goes through baghdad. You know, they hired to sue anyone that touches that oil. I dont see any indications theyre going to back off that position. Okay. Hey, doug, michelle pointed out before, just taking a look at what happens beyond those, the white house said very quickly that they werent considering boots on the ground. That wasnt an option. Would drone strikes be enough to back off the insurgents . I think they may be the happy medium we find here. What we need is what the iraqis want would be f16 strikes that can destroy these insurgents in detail. Theres a case to be made that right now we might have a golden opportunity because the insurgents are out here like an army. Theyre all in one place. They can be destroyed relatively quickly by air power. We may compromise and do drone strikes that kill as you know, one or two at a time. Wont have the same decisive effect that, you know, the u. S. Air force and all its power would. And the reason we wouldnt want to do f16 and f15 strikes . You have human beings over the top of iraq. And not that theres not that anything thats going to shoot down a u. S. War plane, but there is a theoretical possible chance that a u. S. Pilot could end up on the ground in iraq. And there could be collateral damage, and i know that the white house at this point i dont think wants to be seen as bellicose at all. Where did president obama authorize some actual military use recently . Since libya . In libya, right . Right. And i was thinking about that, remember on Public Opinion polls about two years ago, the domestic economy that his marks werent that high. But for Foreign Policy, this is a guy thats making the right Foreign Policy decisions. We walked the fine line in libya and seemed to work out. Now, i look at theres been like eight things in the last six months. Every single thing has gone wrong, hasnt it . In Foreign Policy . Well, it has gone wrong and seems to have gone wrong through inaction, mostly. Through the ukraine, through syria, not because of something we did, but because of something we maybe perhaps havent done. That may change the calculus on iraq. These are hard problems. And by the way, libya now has descended into sheer and utter chaos, like 160,000 barrels of oil per day. Our Foreign Policy is based on u. S. Interests, right . You can talk all the humanitarian stuff you want, but ultimately its about u. S. Interests, which is about oil, right . Right. Its unseemly to say out loud, but thats what it is. You look at the humanitarian crisis in syria, weve got some assurance there werent going to be chemical weapons. And i think chemical weapons were used again, werent they . All right. Its a business network. By the way, did we leave stuff where we left stuff . Oh, yeah, the rebels are using our tanks, our weapons, yes. Uhhuh. Dont we destroy that stuff on the way out . Well, not if youre going to let the iraqi army use it. Some of it sounded like it was left. That was after they left it. Oh, yeah. Doug, thanks. E we didnt expect them to abandon. Intel raising the Second Quarter and fullyear outlook. The chip maker expecting stronger than expected pc demand. The pc industry has been shrinking due to, well, frankly the growth in the popularity of tablets and smartphones. Intel shares rising on its upbeat outlook. Also, keep your eyes on shares of express today. Its interested in acquiring the apparel retailer. Sycamore has disclosed a 9. 9 stake in that Company Making it the largest shareholder. Adopted a stockholder rights plan setting the trigger at 10 and shares jumping after the bell. You can see there, up almost little over 25 . And then a little bit of other deal news to talk about this morning. Univisions owner has held talks with cbs, time warner and other Media Companies about selling the broad cascaster. Owners are said to be seeking 20 billion. They paid a pretty penny for that company years ago. Big equity deal. 12 times ebitda. The deal was 12 times you got your microphone on, still . She said 12 times. In market peak, private equity. It was a 2006 it was one of the sort of right before the vintage deals right before things went horribly wrong. Im going to get you the price, though, on what univision was sold at. In the meantime, investors are talking about comments from bank of england, governor mark carney. But yesterday, he warned that Interest Rates could rise sooner than markets expected. As a result of stark comments, investors have brought forward expectations for the first uk rate hike to before the end of this year. And that was pretty big news. Next, the power of anonymous work in an age of relentless selfpromotion. Theyre called the invisibles and some of the unstung heroes of business. Were going to put the spotlight on them in todays executive edge. And u. S. Open enters day two. But the business of golf is currently in the rough. That and much, much more when we come back. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Its now time for todays executive edge. What do radio heads guitar technician and an Ivy League Educated anesthesiologist have in common . Well, the work is often unnoticed unless something goes wrong. They must take accuracy as its own reward. Thats the argument of our next guest, in his new book, its called invisibles, the power of anonymous work in an age of selfpromotion. Its hot off the press yesterday. Good morning to you. Good morning. Who are the invisibles . I used to be an invisible. For years, i worked as a magazine fact checker. If you think about that job, no one ever thinks about the fact checker unless theres a mistake in the article. While on the job, the better i did my job, the more i disappeared. In fact, it was only if i made a mistake that anyone would think of me. Perfection at that job is invisibility. And i began to wonder are there other fields like this that share the same sort of inverse relationship between work and recognition . Most of us, the better we do our jobs, the more were recognized. Right. That job was the reverse. So i began to wonder about what other types of professions share this relationship. And the interesting thing about the job was that despite no one ever thinking about me, i felt incredibly rewarded after a long day in the way i didnt feel at a variety of other jobs i had. And thats the one thing i found so peculiar about it. How hard is it for an invisible to climb the ladder . Because youre invisible. Right. And how how much is that supposed to be part of the goal even. I would argue that sometimes the invisible succeeds at what theyre doing because theyre not trying to climb the ladder in a way. Well, thats exactly right. You know, its a bit counterintuitive. But in the book, what you see again and again across a wide range of fields and industries that it found people at the tops of t