Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20140811 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box August 11, 2014

It is both a military mess and a political mess. Embattled iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki made his first Public Comments since the u. S. Air strike, saying he will not step down. He says he plans to file a legal complaint against the new president for a clear constitutional violation. Troop movement overnight in baghdad had people wondering, is a coup under way . Is he starting one or preventing one . This is video of fierce fighting on the ground in iraq yesterday. Helped by u. S. Bombing raids, the Kurdish Forces overtook isis. Well have a live report from erbil, the capital in a few minutes. Scott has our top stories. Kinder morgan consolidating assets in a 44 billion, bringing all of the companys publicly traded units under a Single Corporation, rather than the current Master Limited partnership structure. Buzzfeed is expected to announce a new cash injection today that could value the company at about 850 million. The New York Times reports the online media startup just closed a new 50 Million Investment from andreessen horowitz. The times says the money is expected to be used for nowhere content sections, an inhouse incubator and video arm, buzzfeed motion pictures. Among stocks to watch, mankind, sanofi signing a Licensing Agreement with them. The two will partner on inhaled insulin bedding. It is an attractive alternative to daily injections for diabetes. Joseph, welcome back. Yeah, getting the your mikes on . What is this . This is a new new screen, smaller. Lily put . When did this happen . You dont like it . Its smaller, takes up less real estate on the desk. No, yeah. Its very highdef. Ew we played welcome back, kotter for you. I know. Im not a big fan of the song. Really . Who are you more, barberino or more jack . In mind sight, i guess the guy who did the best was travolta, who id like top hes had so many comebacks. Pulp fiction, awesome. How many times when you were a child did you say get off i wasnt when did that start . See, i think i was already in college. I saw it in syndication. When i saw it, i was not watching. There were times in your life when you werent watching tv, like in college. If youre under 30, google it. We were studying. Federal reserve vice chair Stanley Fischer is calling the u. S. And global recoveries disappointing. We had to get a new guy to figure that out. He was speaking in a place called sweden. He says its still unknown whether lower productivity growth and lower Labor Force Participation rates are now permanent features of the u. S. Economy. I hope not. He suggests that this uncertainty makes it harder to estimate growth and inflation. Reading, trying to catch up over the weekend and reading what its like, you know, in spain, in greece, in europe horrendous. In italy, reading people, 48 of people under 30 living at home in italy. No hope for getting a job. All of the countrys resources are going to paying for the retirement of baby boomers and people who are living well and had these labor contracts for years in this social sort of welfare state that they thought was going to work and was going to work forever. And now they see that the and i just couldnt help in reading it, couldnt help seeing the ghost of u. S. Future is what i was thinking of, as we, not you guys, but as people in that middle age group, me, the baby boomers start sucking up all the resources, taking away opportunity from younger people to the point where 75 of people in this country now think that their children are going to have a worse future than what they have. Weve arrived at the moment in europe. Its been so long predicted arrived here . If we dont change. The battle between young and old, right . Thats whats happening there. I think the other thing to keep in mind, youre talking about, you know, the ghost of christmas futures i think is what were referring to, is that government can take away all these well, i was promised that. Government can take it away at any time, and it will when push comes to shove. So, wouldnt you much rather cant give what you dont have. Save your own money rather than the government claim theyre going to put away your Social Security money and then take it away, which theyve done before, right . Theyve changed the rules in the past. Depend on yourself rather than its in that article, all of the rigid labor laws designed to protect people. Yes. Which actually hurt the next group of people because no one can get hired because Companies Know if they hire someone, theyre stuck for life. Dumb rules like there can only be a certain number of notaries in the country, a flat number. What is that . Are you here because people are out . Beckys out, yeah no, but are you i mean, you could be i could name like eight spots where our International Correspondent could be because of geopolitics, and yet, youre here because we need you here, i think. Yes. Also, iraq just doesnt seem to move markets very much. Ukraine is still what cramer says is absolutely, ukraine and russia, absolutely. And if it looked like i mean, we were literally prepared to go into ukraine because we thought last week potentially an invasion by russia. But again, i was reading over the weekend that people that are actually on the ground over there never thought russia was going to do it because they do think that putin at this point fears the possibility of even greater sanctions at this point. It isnt going to move that way. I dont know. I dont know whether thats true. But there had been a huge buildup of troops. They had called a military exercise right, but the people over there arent buying it and theyre emboldened. But here, when you read analysts notes, we think there is a 50 chance russia invades because they were concerned that putin would see him losing in donetsk and that he just wouldnt stand for it. Look how quickly, though, the market turned around on friday. Exactly. That was pretty stunning, right . To see how fast a week ago friday see, i was out for two weeks and i watched a week ago friday or not friday, but the week it was down over 300. I was wondering, is this turning into something . Im going to do the math. I dont really feel like doing it. What was from peak to trough, what did we do . 7 . No. No, no. Did we get to even 5 on the s p . I dont think so. Ill look at it when i get a chance. We ended up positive for the week last week. We lost a lot the week before, though. Yeah. We lost everything one day we lost everything in july. Thats what i mean. Yeah. Europe went down substantially. Some of those countries went down 10 . Europe should be at geopolitics becoming increasingly important factor for the Global Markets. Joining us now on the squawk newsline from thailand, mark farber, publisher of the gloom and doom report. Great to have you on, mark. Update us on your latest thinking. Youre probably watching the last couple weeks thought here we go. Is there more to come there . Is this the beginning of what youve been forecasting for a while or did the market already successfully make a stand . Well, the thing with the market is this. The market hasnt done much this year. Some indices, like the russell 20 2000, are down year to date. The s ps only up 4 . It became very overbought in early july. Then we had a significant correction in many share. And as of thursday night close, the market on a very shortterm basis was extremely oversold with only 20 of shares above the 50day moving average. Thats a fully oversold condition. Now, a rebound is under way in my opinion, but i doubt well make new highs. And if we make new highs, maybe just with a very limited number of shares making new highs, because the technical damage is quite significant. Now, earlier, somebody said that iraq hasnt moved market much. That is correct. But ill tell you, if vicious rebels make a move on arabia, then maybe the market will react slowly. Marc, all along youve been kind of a critic of fed policy here, and i think you talked thats correct. You talk about qe infinity. We almost did get there. We got definitely into the, in your view, with that last round that just, were still involved with, where do you put us, at qe7, 8, 9, 10 . Where are we in the process, because you said we get into the teens. Are we like a qe10 right now . Well, we are in a tapering mode. But believe me, if the s p dropped 20 , whenever that is, the talk will come up again that we havent done enough. And its not only the fed. We also have the ecb, we have the bank of japan and now we also have the chinese easing. In other words, the Chinese Markets having grossly underperformed the s p since 2006 i believe could outperform for a while. Marc, when you come on and we talk about faber gloom and you end up on drudge and we see it a lot of times with your comments, what is it really based on, the notion that something even worse than what happened five years ago, that that is on the horizon . Is it because the world has been easing so much, printing so much money . Is it because debt has risen again . Is it because weve all sort of, i dont know, lived beyond our means, that all of the above. All of the above . Is that really what it is . Those are the fundamentals that cause you to think something wicked this way comes . If this is the multiple choice question, i would pick all of the above. But for me, the most important is that we had a crisis that came about because of excessive credit growth, and we then resolved the crisis by pushing even more credit into the system. And debt to gdp on a global basis is now 30 higher than it was in 2007. Now, following the crisis, we had one element that was favorable. China and other emerging markets were growing rapidly. But also largely financed by credit. And in my view, the emerging world obsessed, and im saying obsessed will contract, not grow. I very much doubt there will be much growth. Secondly, in europe, Industrial Production with the exception of germany is everywhere, still down on the peak before 2007. In other words, we havent much of a recovery. And then theres some structural issues that were discussed on your program just before about the labor force. And so, in general, i think weve moved into a very low growth environment. And given the inflative asset markets, real estate and equity and bonds, i think the future returns will be very low. Say you take a 10year treasury, which i still own, but from here on for the next ten years, the maximum you will earn is 2. 42 per annum. That is the maximum you will earn. And so, i think we will have a very low return environment. Yeah. That was one thing watching that again for the last two weeks as the yields dropping on the 10year . Watching the gdp come in where it was and the employment numbers and then still, you know, it is a global phenomenon were seeing, obviously. Youre pointing to the fact that gdp went up so markedly and yet the 10year yield is still 3. 3 to 3. 4 . Doesnt look right. And marc the bonds market seems to say that the recovery is going to be further very weak or maybe that will move again into recession. Yeah. And what have we got . What do we have left if we move into a recession, too . Here we are, supposedly, you know, in crisis mode in terms of where the fed is, and you know, things arent that bad. And if things were to get bad, theyve already thrown you know, talk about pushing on a string, theyve already done everything. Theres no dry powder. So, do you think thats the way it starts, marc . Do we see inflation or something, or do we just see the market just start going down . How are we going to see if what you think happens comes true . Is it going to be in the equity markets first that we see it . I think well see it first, and we have symptoms of it already in the credit market. Okay. But id just like to attract your attention to one factor, because many people are so bearish about u. S. Treasuries. What would you rather own, a 10year french Government Bond yielding Something Like 1. 5 , or a 10year u. S. Treasury yielding 2. 42 . You understand, the markets have been grossly distorted by monetary policies and fiscal interventions and support, and its just very difficult to tell you where the markets will be in five years time. As i said, i think the returns will be disappointing. Okay. All right, marc faber. Thank you. Were going to leave it there. And usually i ask you about thailand or something, but weve got to go. We dont have time. I appreciate it. Thank you. Well, next time we talk about thailand. Okay. And the nightlife. And your personal life, yeah. One of the things we talked about a lot while you were gone is this issue, so much liquidity from the fed and yet so little liquidity when it comes to trying to trade corporate bonds, munis, et cetera, that when a correction comes, its going to be the gap down is going to be so brutal because people cant struggle to make the market because of dodd frank, et cetera. See, he makes a point and other people make the point repeatedly, markets are distorted as a result of what the fed is doing. May be the case. Probably is the case. But thats the hand youre dealt. So, play the cards that are in your hand. And the market has gone up in the face of many, many nay sayers over the last, what, five years, including in the last, you know, 12 to 18 months. So, yeah, okay, so what . So, the markets distorted. Does that mean youre supposed to not invest in the market because its distorted . Dislocations, they have a way of growing and growing and growing and nothing happens until it happens. Its the you think youre flying on the first you know, youre on a 50floor building. You jump for 49 floors. You think youre flying, and then you realize youre not. Thats the thing. The longer it goes where you think that theres a dislocation, the bigger the day of reckoning is going to be. Assuming that the fed cant land the plane on the foam. Right. Have they ever before . Whats that . Have they ever been able to predict accurately and do the correction . Theyve done so many thats structural point. In the past, do you have a lot of confidence in their ability to know whether theyre in treacherous waters or not . They have not shown the ability to know in the past. So, well see. Coming up, amazon playing hardball with disney and the future of captain america depends on it. Plus, a ride these 24 roller coaster riders will never forget. The details on this mishap at six flags 75 feet which six flags . In the air. Do you know . No, i dont. One nearby. Were going to find out next. Find out next i will not i dont that just is scary. And did the pga championship just give golf some of its mojo back . What rorys big win means for the tour. Squawk returns in just a few moments. The ca illac summer collection is here. During the cadillac summers best event, lease this 2014 ats for around 299 a month and make this the summer of style. Welcome back to squawk box. Amazons reportedly halting preorders of some disney movies, including maleficent and captain america the winter soldier. The wall street journal reports that this is the latest contract dispute involving the ecommerce giant. Amazons also in the middle of a fight with a book publisher, hachette. I love saying that name. In honor of the silent h . I would read it like that, too. Hachette. Hachette is a great book. I dont like seeing that word in the teleprompter, though. Really . I saw a big ad yesterday on this whole dispute. Theyre arguing. I didnt read the whole thing. You know, is it about books . Yes. Its about the pricing of books, the pricing of ebooks. Theyre not worth that much anymore, are they . I think its about who gets to decide what the price of the ebooks should be. A group called authors united ran a twopage ad in the New York Times oh, thats the one i saw. I was reading the New York Times yesterday. That shows you what my life has kmd to. Signed by 900 writers. Huh, huh . What exactly happened on vacation . Yeah, exactly. I was in a place look, if i go to stockholm syndrome in georgia, im moving further. Im moving further right, believe me, and i do have a little bit anyway, including stephen king. The ad criticized amazon for halting orders from some hachette orders and slowing others. Amazons books team posted a message online making its argument for cheaper ebooks and suggesting people email hachettes ceo. Amazon published the ceos email address and suggested points that people might want to make to him if they do send him something. Now, heres the six flags. Theres one right down the road. There is. Well, it was a bad end to the weekend for two dozen riders at Six Flags America maryland. They were stuck aboard the jokers jinx roller coaster. I mean, that should be your first clue. Why do you even get on . Jokers jinx roller coaster. Because its jinxed, obviously, i mean, right . Come on. Do you check out the people sometimes . This is rescuers im not talking about six flags. People inside. We go to local places sometimes down at the shore, and i see the people running the equipment at times, where i think, you know what, i dont know if my kids are going on this. No, they shouldnt. Im not putting down karcarn or anything. This is 79 feet . Yep. Rescuers climbed to the stranded riders. We showed you the video there. They handed out umbrellas very nice. Protect them from the sun. I thought mary poppins the way down or something. Maybe not. How brutal is that . In the second car, they looked like a couple of guys who took off their shirts, are sunbathing. Oh, god. Id hate to be stuck. I get scared on a ferris wheel when youre on the top one and they stop to let people off at the bottom. Im stuck. Me, too. I cant stand them. You go click, click, click, click. And i think at that moment i could sell my soul to the devil to get off that roller coaster ride. Youre not afraid of heights . I hate roller coasters. I wouldnt get on that ride. But i dont mind the roller coaster itself as long as it keeps moving. I can do it. But the idea that it gets stuck and they have to come up and take you down . Even on ski lifts or gondolas, where if they have to come on that bicycle thing thats a good scenario. What if it fails . What if you fall off, if it falls off the track . Then it happens quickly. Thankfully here, no injuries were reported. I have a little step up to the set, but thats just, im comfortable here. Not bad, right . Youre not afraid here . No, this is comfortable. Well for other reasons. Really . Really . Well, thank you for being here today, though. Its nice that you notice the staff didnt have like, its hard to come back, right . Very difficult to come back after

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