Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20140930 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box September 30, 2014

Loss for july. Down in two of the last three months. Its been worse for technology stocks. The nasdaq is heading towards biggest monthly drop since april. If you check out the futures this morning and take a look at was been happening, youll see there are green arrows on this last trading day. The nasdaq up by close to 50 dow jones up by 50 and s p up by 6. In corporate related news out of china, the country giving the green light to apple iphone 6 after beijing addressed security concerns. The iphone 6 will go on sale in china on october 17th. Apple did promise the smartphones dont have any back doors for security that could led u. S. Agencies access data for users. The European Union slamming apple today, saying its tax deals in ireland broke rules. Apple will have about a month to comment. Apple is one of those good names. Its up nearly 8 this quarter. After all of those concerns people had right after the phone came out, about bendgate or whatever we were calling it at that point. Still up 8 . Do we believe the privacy and Security Issues that apple built into the new device, which is to say that nobody can get into it was built for other countries and not ours . Folks in the United States screamed and hollered government folks screamed and hollered about i thinkite smart all the way around, protect yourself from anybody so i am not longer going to be an arbiter. Here is the jibberish. Why would any company want to be responsible for that . Thats the question. I wonder whether they did it for the chinese, when they did it for the government, or by the way, whether there are other companies to say we wont allow this because we want to have devices to this access. And theres been arguments that have been made if a child, for example, was kidnapped and you were the mother of that child and you wanted to be able to find and they knew the kidnappers phone but they couldnt get on to the phone, it would be next to impossible to do it. Thats pretty much the example that folks at the cia and others have given of heart warming example, heart warming stories three minutes in this show at 6 00 in the morning. Im just giving you all of as an objective journalist, all different sides of the story. I thought it was a brilliant move to say i am no longer going to be the gatekeeper you guys have to work this without without going through us without some easy sort of way coming up with this. You would think there would be a you would think there would be an easy gps solution for a situation like that. But i would expect other companies to follow suit. Its going to be much harder over time. The kidnapping example i wonder if apple would eventually offer a function like that to say, okay if this is a phone for a child and you want it turned on maybe you could do Something Like that. I dont know. Oh for a child, yes. No its more if they had the phone number of the kidnapper, at least thats how the example was provided. This whole week has its a liam nieceonasom movie, by the way. A big day for microsoft, the Company Holding an event in san francisco. Thats coming up at 11 00 p. M. Eastern time. Its to showcase a first look at the windows operating system. Windows 8 raised eyebrows when it did away with the iconic start. Remember that and other desktop features. Shares in microsoft are up more than 24 . Ford slashes its profit for 2014 and 15. There are bigger losses in russia and south america. Fords cfo is still striking an optimistic tone. Back over the previous four years, we made 8 billion or more in each of those years. What were talking about in the guidance we gave today, for the reasons mark mentioned, is were looking at about a 6 billion year with very strong cash flow and continue to invest in a future that as we outlined today is going to be much better in 2015 and growing to you know really impressive levels by the end of the decade. Optimistic outlook, shares falling sharply on the news late in yesterday anticipates trading session. We will talk with phil lebeau and a ford analyst in a little bit later this morning about all of that. Lets get a check of the markets this morning. Futures look like they are indicating a higher open this morning. Dow futures up about i about 50 points. S p futures up by 6. Lets take a look at oil prices. Again, last trading day of the quarter, wti at this point up about 19 cents to 94. 76. Certainly off some of the lower levels that we saw last week around 92 and change. Lets take a look at whats been happening with the tenyear note. Yesterday with markets, this morning its pushing back up about 2. 5 at 2. 52 . If you check ott whats been happening with the dollar it is up across the board this morning. The euro trading at 1. 26. Dollar yen at 109. 63. And gold prices, which looked like week like they could potentially hit 12 an ounce, down 8. 70. 1,210. 80 an ounce. Pro democracy protesters in hong kong are continuing demonstrations. This despite calls for the government to cease the civil disobedience immediately. Larger crowds are expected tomorrow, which is Chinas National Day holiday. It looks from the video here from our point of view, it looks like these protests are only growing. Thats right. I was jump just speaking to one of the protest organizers. Given that tomorrow is a holiday and day after, its a holiday here in long coming. Were looking at 100,000 plus tonight to come down to the main protests site. Weve been hearing from the chief executive, as well. A lot of people are saying this could last for a while. The chief executive reading off a sheet of paper which is largely the hong kong electorate basically saying and urging this illegal gathering as hes calling it. Hes saying that theyre going to stick to their guns, beijing is so the executive council, which is a higher parliament here in Hong Kong Beijing itself, the chief executive, will continue to decide how and the leader will be electriced in the future. So hes saying that they cannot offer any sort of solution here and those looking for Electoral Reform will be disappointed. One piece of intelligence i want to pass on one piece of concerning news i just got a few minutes ago was concerns of a chinese gang looks like the protest leaders are warning those on the streets to be careful as there have been some reports of incidents and injuries in other parts of the city as well. Back to you guys in new york. Okay. Thank you so much that. Now were going to get some reaction from the mainlessand. Eunice joins us from beijing. Hey, guys. Beijing is taking more aggressive steps to control the information here about the hong kong protests. In fact, actually, our conversation right now cannot be seen in china at all because of the government today decided to black out all of the broadcasters including at cnbc. That is one of the measures this they took recently. Theyve been vetting the internet. They blocked instagram, theyve been stopping and centering certain terms on wi chat and wave book. These are social media apps. Basically what were seeing in the press is a focus on the costs to hong kong because of these protests. Mainly, theyre talking about how schools have been closed also all these wall street banks that have offices here. Theyve been additionally in inconvenience inconvenienced. Theres been a lot of focus on how the Hong Kong Market has fallen and how theres legitimate teryness because of the protests in hong kong. Beijing does have a huge challenge on its hands. It is not seen as very tolerant to any sort of dissent, especially this group of leaders. And they are faced with tremendously hard choices from their perspective. On the one hand they could decide to back down. But if they were to do that they would be seen as potentially seen as weak potentially im boldening other types of protests across the country. But if they decided to crackdown, they can potentially see International Condemnation as well as alienate the entire city of hong kong. So they from their perspective have a difficult situation at hand. A lot of people have been focusing on national day tomorrow because people are wondering how thats going to factor in. And as susan was saying a lot of people believe that the protesters could be emboldened but from beijings perspective, it could be terribly embarrassing for them to crackdown on a day that is supposed to be about national unity. Guys. Eunice i just wonder i know this has been a long time practice that the chinese block off broadcasters and try to shut down social media on days when they dont like the news flow. Is that a practice that is less and less effective over time particularly as people figure out how to get around those things and find out other information on the internet . Well it is less effective if youre talking about over the course of years. But it actually is relatively lyly effective just because a lot of Chinese People when youre on the street they dont necessarily its surprising how many people dont know whats going on in hong kong. And how effective or true it is from the government to have this apparatus at hand where you start to type in or put in little key words about hong kong or a lot of it just disappears. So it is effective in that way. I thought it was interesting that yesterday there were a lot of terms that were allowed. And there were more controlled social media discussions that were going on. But a lot of that was like i said, its very controlled. But i thought it was an interesting sign that the government knew that they couldnt completely clamp down on the conversation because there are so many people who are keeping an eye on this and wondering whats going on. It just seems to me that suddenly any of the television stations i normally watch were black, i might immediately go to the internet and try and find out why. Eunice, thank you very much for joining us today. Oh do you have time for one more thing . Sure. I wanted to say one other then opinion what was interesting today, too, i thought in hong kong is if you talk to people in hong kong they said that the police were not present. So unlike over the weekend where there was tear gas and, you know theres pepper spray, on the streets in hong kong even though there are these huge protests, there really isnt a large police presence. And so tell you about the hong kong protests versus in london in hong kong the protesters are incredibly, like civil. They wont go into looting. They dont have the republic ewe tagdz. Always picking up their own garbage. There were all these signs that were really i thought kind of cute and told you about the long coming protester, it would say Something Like fighting for democracy, you know apologies for the inconvenience. It was just all of these signs all over the place. And i think what was interesting yeah the polite protest protester. My sense was that the strategy was to because they crackdown so much over the weekend, that theyre trying to push back. Beijing is potentially letting this thing settle on itself. So people say what they need to say and leave the premises and that would be a natural way out of the situation. Polite protesters and potentially polite crack youbs, too. Isnt it quite ironic about how beijing wouldnt let the iphone 6 be sold in china unless they prevented the back Door Security measures. Now we hear from susan and eunice that instagram and others tv stations are being blocked. It happens fairley frequently there. Those images of protesters in hong kong catching the attention of global investors. Could this be the geopolitical event that finally sparks a selloff . Joining us right now with that is lisa challot for Morgan Stanley wealth management. Also patrick chovanic. Patrick has extensive experience in china. Why dont we start with you. What do you think of these protests 17 years later . Its a real standoff. It is a big test for seexi jinpings leadership. Are they patient enough to allow this to develop and maybe ease off a bit or will they see it as such an affront that they have to step in and crackdown . Over this past evening, theres been some good news and some bad news. The good news is beijing has come out and said we have full confidence in the Hong Kong Government which implies that theyre not going to send out to troops immediately. Thats good. But the Hong Kong Government saying theres nothing to negotiate about. This is a settled issue and were not going to talk about it. Were going into a holiday and the crowds are only going to get bigger. And youre heading into a potential much bigger standoff that leads to some bad news down the road. Thats right. Lisa you think this is the situation . We have seen so many geopolitical issues that have surprised us but the markets have kind of shaken off the news. Do you think this is different . No i dont. This is still a political event and its one that from our perspective doesnt have an Immediate Impact on the economy. What folks are concerned about right now is what is the growth rate in china, to what stunt does the slowing in that growth rate going to cause deflationary pressures around the world. I think thats what investors are focused on. Obviously, this is an interesting development, but its very, very early days before we can start as investors worrying about how a Pro Democracy Movement might destabilize broader Mainland China or jeopardize hong kong as a gateway, if you will. Lets add all of these things up if you will. You have china slowing down pmi numbers overnight proved that once again. You have europe slowing down as we heard from ford theyre worried about whats happened there. You had argentina being held in contempt of court. You have potential slowdowns in north america. What happens as you look at the middle east and the chaos there . Whats the Tipping Point . Yeah look i think this is a question of where does Global Growth go . The United States has, in many ways decoupled over the last really two years. And the question is whether we can continue to decouple from some of the slowing and the rest of the world. What are you saying . I think were just at that point. Where if we dont see stabilization in europe if we dont see a stabilization of the china growth rate overall Global Growth could be in jeopardy for next year. But at this moment i think that were still optimistic, that the ecb will stabilize europe and that things actually are going to be better a year from now than they are today in terms of the Global Growth outlook. Patrick, do you agree with that . I agree the big question is where is Global Growth going to come from . But i dont see it as a decoupling story. I see it as a rebalancing story. In china, a lot of people are concerned that the slowdown in china, which is deepening, a lot of people see that as a big negative for the u. S. Economy. I dont. The chinese economy is no more a driver for the u. S. Economy than the japanese economy was in the 1980s. And when it closed actually if china is able to smausht domestic consupgz in the face of that slowdown what opens up demand for driver and u. S. Growth. This may be a bumpy path. I agree the slowdown in china is the bigger story in terms of investors. But while it may be a bumpy path its a positive development that needs to happen. We import a lot more than we export. In fact, its about four times. We ex fort about 40 billion a month and we import about 10 billion a month or vice versa, exactly. So is our bigger concern here patrick, that these protests could spread and disrupt the flow of goods into the United States . Is there any risk of that happening . No i dont think thats really an immediate risk. You know the issue in hong kong with the rising protests are local issues. The income is chinas global city. Its the Financial Center. And that creates anything that happens in hong kong casts a very big shadow on the region. Right across the bay from hong kong is guangdong. Theres always a place where they will play out. Either the protests will fizzle out and go away or they grow and expand. The proximity of where we ship most of the goods from china to here is only about 30 miles from where these protests are happening. Look i dont think were there yet. And i think if there was a decision of crackdown, the result would not be disrupg of trade. The result would be a bloody crackdown in hong kong. Theres no question of who would win. Its just what would be the aftereffects . What would be the impact of that on hong kong as a Financial Center and chinas image throughout the world . Do you agree with that . I do. I think we have to focus on what protesters in hong kong are about and to what extent it is translatable. As best we can discern, the protests so far are about rule and the extent to which youre going to have free elections and a democracy as quote unquote promised in 2017 in long coming. These are not issues that the typical Mainland China would necessarily have a strong cash mitt point of view about that would cause them to take to the streets. So i think, again, very early days, this can go in a lot of different directions. But our take right now is that this is very hong kong specific it is a political protest and one that at the moment were wagering is going to be resolved reasonablebly quickly and reasonably peacefully. Lisa patrick, thank you both for coming in. Coming up netflix making a splash with shows like house of cards and orange, can it do the same with the movie business . Plus the White House Security scramble. I dont know if you guys saw this news. Unbelievable. Big questions for the secret service as new reports of the white house fence jumper making it much much further into the executive mansion than first reported. 21. Could something that small make an impact on something as big as your retirement . I dont think so. Well if you start putting that towards your retirement every week and let it grow over time, for twenty to thirty years that retirement challenge might not seem so big after all. Boib. Morning star cutting its rate on pimco from a bronze level to a gold level, the firm citing reshuffling about outflows and reshuling of responsibilities. Cnbc is going to have an ex

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