Story that were following. Wti falling. You have to go back to may 2010 to see prices like this. The number to watch is 67. 15. Right now, down by about 6 to 69. 32. Well below what weve seen at this point. If it fell down to 67. 15 that would be the lowest price since september 2009. The cartel deciding against cutting prices. First, check out some of the fallout to this route in oil prices. Youll see exxon, chevron, bp all trading sharply lower this morning. Bp down by more than 6 . The Global Equity market taking note of this dramatic fall in oil. Lty at this point, dow futures would open by 35 points, s p down by 4 points and nasdaq is up by just over 5 points. In asia within up by 2. 3 . Shanghai composite closing up by 2 . Hang seng is relatively flat. Trade in europe, maybe some of the oil taking its toll there, as well. The cac down by more than 0. 5 . The ftse in london down by 0. 7 . Steve sedgwick is standing by in london. He is just back from that opec meeting. Steve, this caught the markets by surprise. Yeah, becky, we were talking about it in the hours beforehand, as well. We started getting the feeling tuesday evening when the russians came in and then out. The russians delivered nothing in terms of adding to the cart which were hoeg hopeful. Then it came to the meeting on thursday. There were some pretty tense talks between venezuelans, israelis and saudis beforehand. The venezuelans thought they would have a Production Cut, im pretty sure of that. Basically, what it came down to in the end, he ever producer wants less oversupply on the market. They want the price back up again. They want 100 a barrel. But nobody was prepared to do it, so it fell firmly on the shoulders of mr. Naimi and saudi arabia. He said no, we did not create this problem. The nigerian minister spoke to me. Shes the new president and she said its not just opec who have got to share the burden. Listen in. Very clear. We are all in this together. Its not just opec. Opec will not necessarily change the picture if the nonopec countries do not share the burden. Becky, we talked beforehand about whether there was dissengz. Of course they came up with what they said was a consensus decision. What i thought was absolutely we havent got an emergency meeting in the spring. And you think the price action weve seen over the last this 24 hours, they would want some form of emergency hour, as well. Bet your Bottom Dollar if we stay below 70 a barrel, they will is a meeting and it will be in february and it will be in march, as well. But the same question remains, call it what you like, the fact remains is every producer globally from russia to shale to opec, they need higher prices. Theyve got problems on their budget because they cant atrad tract new investment at these low levels. The saudis play along the game. Saudi can afford to do that. Theyve got the bulk of the Global Reserves and theyve got the cheapest production on this planet. Nobody, including saudi, was happier about yesterdays position, i think, but theyre playing a game now saying we didnt create this overfly, its up to someone else to say that. Back to you, becky. Steve, we knew that the iranians wanted other people to agree to cut. They didnt necessarily want to do it themselves. But we also know theyre in a position where they have to look like a better mrarg on the Global Markets because of whats happening with the Nuclear Talks concerning that country right now. Great point. Is it werent for that, would we have heard a much more vocal iranian minutester . Hes very eloquent. I had a tough time getting on the same page as many of the iranian oil minutester minutes years. If they had, a green light for more iranian oil on the table, at the same time the iranians are calling to for the saudis to give up the market share that they lost. It could have been even worse because the iranians would have been putting even more on the table. So if youve got 30 Million Barrels of oil a day coming out at the moment. The world consumes 88 to 91 Million Barrels a day. So the Spare Capacity is growing. The inventories are growing, as well. And nobody is prepared to pull the trigger on cutting back, as well. If the iranians have put more on the table over the next six months, as well, can you imagine . I think the price action could have been even more vicious, becky. All right. Steve, thank you very much. You know, we saw the thinking about that over the weekend, there were hedge funds. Potentially a price spike of 15 bucks. If there was a deal. There was the possibility of talking about a decline because this is really amazing. Oil analysts were absolutely convinced there would be no deal. General market analysts, of course theres going to be a deal, right . Theres a big division about what happened. This hits a number of Global Markets particularly hard. Russian asset res sinking. The ruble is now at an alltime low and the russian stock market is getting hit very hard. What were showing you is the dollar at the bottom and you get 49. 5 rubles to every dollar. Venezuelan bonds, expect them to get hammered again today. This is a lot of people actually own these because look at that yield. 15 . Where else can you get that . Nowhere. You look to the right of the chart, you can see the dollar skyrocketing against that, as well. Carl larry is director of oil and gas at frost and sullivan. Good to see you here. Good morning. How are you . Good. How long before venezuela leads opec . Weeks. Months. Im right there with you. I agree. I think thats a really big thing here. A lot of the other countries in opec cant survive with oil this low for this long. I know the saudis can. Im sure they can for at least a year. But countries like libya or venezuela or nigeria for that matter. Why bother to stay with opec right now if youre venezuela or nigeria . I think that, you know, this is what has worked for years. And theyre thinking eventually theyll come around. But theres a lot more competition and thats really hurting everybody. Bottom line, it seems to me the saudis are playing the smartest game here, right . If you want capacity to many coout of the market, youll let the price fall on the western half of the United States, canada and bra z ill. They all get punished. They dont have to do anything. The lack of profitability in all of those wells means that they come off line. Yes. And i think theres something more going on here in opec. Especially with the saudis. Right here in the u. S. , what we can do with Unconventional Oil with fracking, we can turn it off, come back in a few days, turn it back on and production will be back at the same level. Is that true . Thats different than regular wells, right . Yeah. Regular wells, youre looking at maybe three weeks and maybe getting the same production wells. So whats unconventional right now with shale oil, i think you get a lot more flexibility. But i think whats going on with the saudis is that they dont want give up their position in line in front of china and thats why they dont want to cut. Black friday, they dont want to do it. No matter how much better of a deal i think youre going to get, im not going to get out of line trying to get in front of china. How low does the price of oil go . We could see it down to 65 at these levels. Its a point where other countries say we cant handle this any more. Carl, we had harold from Continental Resources on with us about two or three weeks ago. He was talking about how shutting in oil isnt what they do when it comes to these new fracking things, but he did say it would definitely hurt new production down the road. It would Keep Companies from investing as much to open new wells. I think like what michelle mentioned earlier is what really gets hurt is conventional wells. At 65, theres no investment in new production in saudi arabia or wherever it may be. Conventional wells are a lot more expensive and a lot more risky. You should have price point at 65. I guess what i mean is if we dont see new wells, if companies are at 69 stopping some of their plants from production, is that a new twoyear cycle, a oneyear cycle . When do we see that . I think in the u. S. , we dont see less production. I think we see stable production. Maybe a little drop off within the next six months. But i think growth, so when right. Well be expecting growth. We will see that growth pretty much. Thats the way that works. Well save on 9 million here, maybe going at 85, 86. You just saw Steve Sedgwick with his interview of the new president from nigeria, the first woman president of peck. What do you make of her . Nigeria is having a hard time making oil prices. Its ironic that they made her president at this time when tier trying to keep oil at 70. The u. S. Is not getting oil from nigeria. If anybody, theyre lost in the world right now looking for buyers. If they cant find anybody, theyll lose even more money. To make her a figure head at this point, it seems ironic. Ironic is one way to think about it. Okay. Carl, great to have ow this morning. Thank you. Friday friday, the super bowl for shoppers. Our first stop, toys r us. Shoppers lining up for hours waiting for the doors to open. They did that at 5 ook p. M. On thanksgiving for the first toy rush. Were joined with the latest on sales so far. So were just a little over 12 hours and 13 hours in, hank, how is it looking . Things are doing great. Welcome to our store in times square, the center of the toy universe. Tell us directionally what youve seen this year relative to last year. Last year was the first year you opened at 5 00 p. M. , right . Yeah. Last year we opened at 5 00 p. M. The consumer response was overwhelmingly positive. We opened at 5 00 p. M. Again last night. At times we had close to 2,000 people lined up to come in and shop. Very exciting. We had hundreds of people lined up at our stores. Most of the Consumer Shopping were shopping with their families. Its a great consumer event, very fun. How does it work in terms of hours . People open at 5 00 p. M. , i assume theres a are prush from 5 00 to what time, 9 00, 10 00 . Yes. Then what happens overnight . We had people lining up outside of our stores as early as 2 00 or 3 00 in the afternoon. We opened at 5 00. Big crowds from like 5 00 through 9 00 p. M. Then it slows down a little bit. We keep our stores open from 5 00 p. M. Thursday all the way through 11 00 p. M. On black friday, tonight. We have another round and weve got about 200 door busters that will launch at 7 00 p. M. This morning. And well have another rush from probably 7 00 to 11 00 and then steady all day and into the weekend. Hank b, try to put this in number terms. Theres always a debate about whether to open on thanksgiving and how early. How much additional business do you think you get by opening up at 5 00 relative to opening up today . Truly, weve heard from our cob assumers that they like to open early, some like to come in on thanksgiving day as a family to shop. For those who dont want to come in on thanksgiving, we have great deals starting at 7 00 a. M. On friday. We think it helps business. This is the official kickoff of the Holiday Season for us. Over the next few weeks, our sales will grow every single week, right up through the week before christmas. The former ceo of toys r us on wednesday spoke to us and he suggested its almost immoral to open a retail store on thanksgiving, that people should be able to stay home with their families. What would you say to him . Well, again, for us, its about respond to go what our consumers want. And overwhelmingly weve had positive response. As i was talking to customers last night, they were thankful that we were open. In telephones of our employees yes. Im sorry. Go ahead and finish your sentence. I was going to say in terms of our employees at our times square store, we had more volunteers volunteer to work than shifts we had available. We have a nice dinner for our team members and they love it. This is our time to shine and whats the pay differential, by the way . What kind of overtime do you get on a holiday like this . We give them time and a half on thanksgiving. And the other argument john made was not just the moral argument about being closed so people stay home with their families. The other thing he said was from an economic perspective, he didnt think it made sense. He thinks it just spreads the number of shoppers who come in over a longer period of time. Is it profitability to be open for more hours . Yeah. Without question. We pay a premium. However, for the consumers that we get that come in and love it, its about giving them what they want and we think its good for business and also good for what consumers want. So you think you get more sales as a result of being open. Can you quantify that at all . I dont want to share any financial numbers for competitive purposes, but we think it helps our business. Are consumers walking in buying one toy or ten toys . Whats going on . Theyre walking out with baskets full of toys and a big toy trend is lights, camera toys. So where weve had movies, like the lego movie webs thats selling well. Frozen is selling well. Ive got a hot toy here. This is this is a toys r us exclusive, by the way. Singing and talking ana and elsa from the frozen movie. So this is a great toy. This is a hot item for us and consumers really love the product. Why do you think there were so many employees who volunteered to work on thanksgiving, besides the fact that im sure they love their yobs. They want to be there. But is that a sign of the economy, that they need the money . What was the biggest reason that they wanted to work . At toys r us, this is our time to shine. We get pumped up for this. This is the super bowl for retail. I think they just want to be part of the fun and also they want to be there to serve our customers. Hank, what about online . What are you seeing online being popular versus whats selling in the stores . Ill tell you, Online Business continues to grow. We also see consumers shopping more and more with mobile devices. So we have implemented improvements to our mobile app. Weve got a faster, its an easier checkout experience and also the site is faster. Really, the same things are selling online as in stores. So very, very similar items. Hank, one of the things that john iller mentioned is he thinks toys r us and some other stores, as well, has gotten away from some of the core message in the past. He said part of that is making sure you have a message for the shoppers and the other is exclusive items. You just held up the ana and elsa exclusive items. What other things do you have . We have many exclusive toys. Another hot item is charmazing. These are bracelets for kids that are expandable, theyre stackable. We have about a hundred unique charms. This is a toys r us scloout exclusive. Were a toy specialty reseller. So were in the toy business 365 days a year. We are the Toy Authority and weve got team members who are experts in what they do. So its all about making it easy for the customer during the busy Holiday Season. Okay. Were going to leave it there. Hank, happy thanksgiving. Good luck to you on this black friday. Get some sleep. I dont know, have you been there all day and all night . Ive been here late last night and again early this morning, but our team members are here and its very exciting. Thanks for having me on this morning. Absolutely. Talk to you soon. Thanks. I want to be a Toy Authority. We had our guest on, the goldyblox. Did you see her in the macys day parade . I did. It was pretty cool. Dana telsey is here, as i mentioned. Dana, i know you were out last night. And i just wonder what you think about the crowds, what you think about the sales so far. It feels better this year than last year. Does it . For some reason, the tone feels better, the retailers are better prepared. The consumers, we all know the macro numbers where the lower gas prices help. Compelling merchandise presentations, better than in years past. Retailers have invested in them. Were seeing better trained sales associates. It used to be that retailers were giving lip service and training with sales associates. Now go into stores like victorias secret. They know what theyre talking about and theyre upselling an increase in the average transaction. Think about omni channel. Now its coming to life, whether its mobile, whether its order online, pick up in store, the omni channel and bricks and mortar are coming together. You know, i drove several hours this morning because i got up early, came from my parents house. The whole way up from philadelphia all the way up to the turnpike, all the way here, all the stations i was listening was saying, hey, when it comes to traffic, dont worry about it. Is that because they are all opening earlier, you had a bunch of traffic there last night . And i wonder if john is right about her theory that by opening longer, you just spread out the same number of customers and dont get additional traffic . I think thats happening. I feel like weve had black friday week since october. More of these deals are getting more competitive. Im seeing things like take 20 off from 9 the oclock to noon. With more Stores Opening on thanksgiving day itself, its makes thursday and friday bigger, but the drop off is also bigger. Where you have this in the margin is next to nothing if not nothing if not worse than that. Are you happy or unhappy that theyre doing this . Youve got to talk to the companies and say what are you buying thats supposed to be promoted . Theres so many goods that companies are doing. Buying at a specific margin to promote. So theres this special deal out there and then theres the deals company make money on. Who is doing it right and who is doing it wrong . I think were seeing Companies Like macys doing it right. I think michael kors continues tow to see the big increases out there. Were seeing nordstrom, its working. Look at the tiffany tea collection. Its getting fanfare out there. So accessories and under armour, nike, double digit increases. So the whole question of whether or not to open on thanksgiving, if youre the one retailer who doesnt do it right. Thats why theyre open on thanksgiving. Theyre all looking at the earlier times. Is it more and more costly for the stores to get those sales and is it harder and harder to turn a profit on any of this stuff or does it even matter . Get them in there. You need the traffic. The traffic is what counts. You need to get them in there early to build a rapport. A lot of these earlier buying is