Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20141217 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 17, 2014

Speak the language in a statement and remove a considerable time frame. The statement and an updated forecast is due out at 2 00 p. M. Eastern today. A half hour later, chair janet yellen will field questions from the media. Beyond the fed, the ruble and oil. The russian currency dropping about 60 against the dollar this year. Cnbcs Geoff Cutmore has made its way to moscow and will join us there in just a minute. He is looking at russias move to sell the currency. As for oil, worries about a surprise pressure in prices, france is now down nearly 20 since opec decided to keep rates steady late last month. Add all these stories together and we have a very jittery market. The dow has shouldered triple gains and losses in the session. The blue chip index swinging 700 points yesterday alone. The dow, nasdaq and the s p closing at their lowest levels since the understand of october. Just a little after 6 00 a. M. Is how we stand right now. The futures look like they are headed up. But as we know, where things stand right now, it could be a very different picture at 9 30. Could be a different picture from that at the end. And 1. 5 , only were just not used to it. 1. 5 is 250 points. By weve been aside sleep for so long that the young kids in the market are like, wow. When we think 80 points is a lot, thats fractional. It was moving with oil. Did you w567 it . Oil was down a couple of dollars . And the market was up by 270 and i looked and oil is up 1. 50. The market was pulling back, goes back down a little. It broke within a little bit in the morning. For a long time, based on the ruble. And the ruble took over the story line as russia looked like it was going to get more actively involved. Cut more gets to go to russia. Im sorry. Dude, im working on the visa. Are you, really . Yes. Certain countries make it more difficult. I wonder why. Use a mastercard. Americans express wont get you there. You can borrow mine. Actually, that might not be a good idea. Where is the ruble today . Did it get above 80 . No. 79 something. 249 was the high yesterday, but 68 is it stabilized . I was convinced oil again yesterday. Because of the market. You could see it moving around with well, then you saw ge did come out and say sluggish. When youve got so many different and sundry something is always going to be affecting it. Theres always something doing well. Always something. Doing badly. Its like the best laid plans of mice and men. Oh should have thought of that. Lets check some of the other markets. We can always talk about more. The tenyear yield. But thats too much. Exactly. So very close to that 2 level. Were near the oneyear low, absolutely. Lets show you whats going on. We showed you with the ruble, it is stronger against the yen. 117 yen for every dollar euro is going to cost he 1. 24. The pound sterling. Gold right now, if youre not gold, how do you make a case for gold . Higher by 2. 70. The ruble roller coaster, the currency has collapsed leaving ordinary consumers in the country to rush out and buy imported products such as cars and appliancappliances. Inflation is making those items more expensive now on a daily basis. Russians are not able to buy ipads or iphones right now because apple is holding the sales in russia saying the rubles instability has made it too difficult to set prices. They were taking price necessary ruble as but what does that translate into dollars . It was changing by the minute. Remember when someone said the bitcoin . And the minute they got it, they would sell it because you dont know where its going to be ten minutes later. I wouldnt, either. Currency is all psychological. When you really start to think about where the kurchtsy is. Lets head to moscow. Geoff cutmore brings us the latest. Geoff cutmore with the visa. Hey, geoff. Yeah, hey. Yeah, the shell is just to get a multi entry one in there for a year. And then anytime youve got a crisis youre on that plane and youre straight back. Youre not missing too much weatherwise. Its about zero degrees right now and were expecting snow. So it is going to get chilly. Lets move away from the weather, though, because i want to talk about what weve heard over the last 30 minutes. The Prime Minister has come out and said the currency is now outside of the comfort zone for the economy and he has singled out russian exporters and suggested maybe part of the problem here. To some that sounds like nibbling away at some form of currency control. What they could do is sell the exporters that they need to start selling some of their hard currency stash, their foreign currencies to try and provide some support here for the ruble. So we have that. We know the finance ministry is in the game now. Theyve got about 7 billion worth of foreign currency that theyve threatened to sell into the markets. The Central Bank Put nearly 2 billion into the market yesterday. And, of course, we have that dramatic hike in Interest Rates here which takes us up to 17 . And thats supposed to present a huge incentive for russians to keep their money in the bank. But as youve pointed out, weve seen them heading to the stores to buy electronic goods and cars and things they might think at least will preserve some of the value of their assets. Back to you. All right, Geoff Cutmore, thank you. Zero degrees, wow. Thats how i think of russia, the cold. At one point, there was one point when vodka was a story value in the history of russia because it had more stability in terms of its use and vaublt and tradability compared to where does that freeze, do you know . Below zero. He keep it in the freezer. Sorry, geoff. Have you had some vodka already . Not today. Yes . Yeah, no, not today. Joe, theres a big speech tomorrow. And i think thats this is a very interesting point because president putin gives an annual media speech. And coming up to that, weve now got obama with a bill sat in front of him to rachet up sarchkzs in the sector. The europeans have juflt said they might find a new to put more pressure on president putin. So it feels like the story is coming to a head. Just yesterday, kerry made comments and the rublt seems to be off its lows. I wonder if were hearing from putin, this game that he always plays where he suddenly sounds dovish and everybody is relaxing and relieved that hes going to take the off ramp. And when reality sets in, the fact that nothing has changed in eastern ukraine. Yeah. And you know what . The problem here well, i say problem. From the western perspective, you look at these opinion polls and they continue to suggest that he has widespread support for the steps that hes taken on ukraine and crimea. So even as russians are feeling poorer by the hour because of whats happening with the ruble, theyre not blaming the president for that. Theyre pointing to the government. Prime minister medvedev and his Economic Team and theyre saying, you need to do something about this. We dont think president putin is to blame. So the country seems to be on side with his position as far as the ukraine is concerned. Which what makes tomorrow so fascinating because, really, if he wants to save this economy, he needs to take a step back here. Because, what, theres 670 billion worth of u. S. Dollar and other foreign currency debt in this economy thats going to need servicing over 2015. And if they dont get access to capital markets, thats going to be really tough. Okay. All right. Geoff cutmore, thank you. Thank you for that report. Either way, im going long vodka in that country right now. I dont think youre going to be able to get your hands on enough. Were going to get to roger altman in a second. And when putin goes in front of the media over there, is it like it used to be . You know, how do you do it so well every day . Is it like that or does he get grilled . Hes in the audience. Remember, geoff was there not long ago. He had a pretty tough interview. But if you have western journalists in the audience, i think youll get im wondering whether they grill them or whether its like here with our press corps b do layups with president obama. Or is it like here where its an arm of supporters . Yeah, arm of the white house. Joining us for the hour, whats his name . Ed henry. Anyway, joining us for the hour to talk about russia, the oil stock and roger altman. When i first heard michelle say why would gold go up . I first thought well, maybe in anticipation of world ward iii, but that probably is not going to happen. We were saying putin might be pushed to become even more i dont know, troublesome. More troublesome based on this. Well, i think its hard to interpret kerrys statement. And my own interpretation is that theres some thinking at the state department as to whether or not we might like to find a way to assist Russia Agency a way of possibly moving wards some stabilization of the relationsh relationship. I dont think anybody thinking if we were to offer an olive branch to russia all of a sudden there will be some pullback in ukraine. Thats not putins style. I dont think were going do see any softening at the moment in terms of the russian approach there. In fact, there may have been provocation as you just said including along the baltics and weve seen these odd flights over scandinavia where russian aircraft show up unexpectedly. Its pretty interesting, though, that worrying about global stability of the Financial Markets, even though we put the sanctions on, were like watching and if it gets too bad over there, were ready to try to assist because nobody wants a huge global problem that could be sparked by russia. Although you dont think that can happen. Its not a big enough country to spark a global i dont. If you step way back, what does this crisis really exposing . Its exposing, i think, how profoundly weak russia is. But even beyond that, so russia has a gdp about the size of france. About ninth in the world. It has a relatively small population for such a vast country, 140 million people. Population is falling. Life expectancy in russia is falling. Thats unbelievable. Its obviously a commodity centered economy. Its suffering massive financial plight. Theres no meaningful guide at the moment. It has a heavily leveraged corporate sector. And its a very weak country. Treasury must be thrilled at this point, right . Because the sanctions didnt seem to have much of an impasse. But then when you add on the layer of falling oil prices, the corporate sector, which needs to roll over so much debt and now cant because Western Banks are prohibited, now youve got the perfect combination where you have the real squeeze on him in a way we havent before, right . Yes. Michelle, i think sanctions had a bigger impact indirectly. Everybody measures the precise effect of the sanctions themselves acid written. But theres an additional effect which is the freezing of investment and financing into russia on the part of so many participants who look at the sanctions, who look at the tension and say im pulling back or im not going there. And ive seen in so many situations investments that might have been made and foreign direct investment, yes, its hurtful to them. But now, gazpron, roftnet, that is where the problem is. Now were getting close. The russian population blame us instead of their own government and their president for their problems at this point. We win support and lose support and thats one of the other things being exposed by this crisis. Putins popularity has soared in recent months because of his annexation of crimea, his moch into eastern ukraine, all his talk about legitimizing russia as a great power and all of that has made him very, very popular among the russian people. Which is why i dont think well see any pullback for the time being in ukraine or in the level of tension. And its also why i think putin is in a really, really tough spot. Because so respond to any overture from the west, that there should be one, hard for him to do. And so he in order to do the right thing for his economy and his people, it makes him look weak. Because he spent all this time effectively demonizing the west, demonizing the United States, and seeing his popularity rise. So he is really cornered. One more thing i think is fascinating, how many millions of did we read over the past few weeks and months about how and i remember this phrase so vividly. Putin is playing chess and the u. S. Is playing checkers. You know, it hasnt been that way. Even with how much crimea had oil wells and thats what he wanted. Now that he got it, you add it all together, is it worth the same it used to be because its all been marked down and halved . Do you even believe the opinion polls . If somebody calls you up in russia and says, how do you feel about putin . What do you say . Do you say no, i dont like him . And do we care whether the russians blame us . They dont like us, anyway. Do we care were not popular over there . I think thats the only way putin ever gets pushed out. Well, hes not. Hes basically going to be there until hes gone. But is there total oil wealth . Its about the same as it was before they took crimea. Its been marked down 40 , hasnt it . I bet you they havent even broken even. Im not close to that. Im not sure the oil reserves in crimea are that enormous. Why did they do it . Theres also the coast. Sacred from a russian historical point of view. But he is in a real corner. And thats dress. Grudge picked up on this yesterday, art cashin or someone said hes like a wounded animal now. I do think that kerrys comments, it might be the case of the United States and perhaps the west as a whole look like to find a way to assist russia. Even if theres no shortterm payback. Its an off ramp. Nobody wants to take it. One of the interesting dynamics here is whether there will be any overture at all from the u. S. Or from the west as a whole or perhaps on germany on assisting russia financially. That depends on how bad this gets. He only knows bullying is and power. All im going to say is it might be the west would like to see an opportunity there. For sure. Im not sure we want a total collapse of the russian economy. I dont think we would. That would be first of all from a financial point of view very destabilizing. Much more with roger altman over the next hour. Still to come this morning, the latest fallout from the sony hacking scandal. Why the new york premier of the interview has been canceled. And then could russias losses be a gain for some investors . Well have one argument on why now is the time to buy. And in the next hour, American Consumers saving big bucks at the bump right now. But what are they doing with the extra cash . 6 40 eastern. The Volkswagen Golf was just named motor trends 2015 car of the year. So was the 100 electric egolf, and the 45 highway mpg tdi clean diesel. And last but not least, the High Performance gti. Looks like were gonna need a bigger podium. The Volkswagen Golf family. Motor trends 2015 cars of the year. Its a great outfit is what i was saying. Thats not what i heard. I heard one of those shirts again. You give me a hard time when i went simple. You said i was too corporate. I cant win. Youre right. Lets talk about whats going on here. Best dressed man. In the northeast this morning. Weve got a warm front here. Weve got some rain in through boston, in through massachusetts. New york just cloudy at the moment. Later this afternoon and this evening, theres a little snow. For this time of the year, you expect to see more blues on the map, more snow for the system. Maybe buffalo seeing some snow later on this afternoon and this evening. We need more of that after the seven feet they got a couple of weeks ago. This storm system hanging around, just messy through new england again. Maybe a stray shower into new york city later on. Big snow up in whats called arista county maine. Not a heavily populated area. Just some key areas for the most part and some moose live there. To the north and east, it will be out of here tomorrow. Big snowfall totals up here, not getting down to the major cities. Syracuse, looking at 1 to 3 inches. Real quickly, guys, i want to give you an idea of whats going on for Christmas Eve. Were not sure exactly whats going to happen. Probably pretty large storms on Christmas Eve and christmas. Well watch out for you. Do you get to play like this anywhere else . Do i what . Do you get to play like this . I get to work with al roker every morning. But sometimes you guys are nicer about it. Iems like, is al kidding or does he hate what im wearing . Theyre way too serious. I usually get a straight serious al sees this young, handsome up and comer that knows whether like nobody else. And hes like, the whippersnapper, who is the boss . You know what, though . Al reported for 34 hours straight. You dont have a diaper. I think he made time to go to the bathroom. I started watching that just to check in on him. He was awesome. Im kidding pep made some reference to that at some point. Punch drunk. 34 hours . Three hours, we get punch drunk. Thank you. Well see you again tomorrow. There are new threats from those responsibilities attack against sony picture studios. The group is now making threat against movie theaters set to show the comedy the interview. The department of Homeland Security says they are aware of the threat but there is no credible intelligence to indicate a plot against the u. S. Movie theaters. The new york premier of the movie has been canceled. That is a tough way to launch a movie. He would be worried that people wouldnt show up, right . You have a big premier and its empty . Bad, bad pr. But you remember lenny bruce was before his time. In terms of what you could do. Now, youve got to think of the whole world. We think that everybody is, you know, gotten our point in terms of cultural freedom, liberties. Can you imagine, when they even found out that this was not certainly saying that they had any right to do Something Like this. But they have to be like, youve got to be kidding me. In china, you cant even Google Tiananmen square in china. This is about assassinating a world leader . You would think here its its a parity. Over there, im sure they you know, i dont know. Clearly. But what scares me is so they got bad about a movie and they can decimate sony. If it was what if they got mad at somebody else, is it that easy to hack United Technologies or is it that easy to hack my guess is the banks have much better security. A bank . Coming in and trying to come through the front door. Movie studios, maybe not so much. I think thats right. Banks spend enormous amounts with enormous help in terms of fortifying themselves against s p 500 cyber attacks. Although its a movin

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