Biggest annual drop in dollar terms. Industry group api will release its data today. And in global news petro bass could be declared in technical default on some of its foreign debt. Some bondholders want petro bass to speed up its losses in that giant corruption scandal. So a lot going on this morning. Mr. Kernen. It was down yesterday. In the second place. Here it is. In Corporate News the shares of civio today. The small Market Cap Company about to get smaller. The Oil Field Services provider warning the First Quarter and full year revenue numbers will fall well below analyst estimates. The company suspending its dividend and announcing plans to cut its workforce by 45 in the United States and 30 in canada. The ceo blames big cuts in Capital Spending by major oil companies. The first time weve ever led with it, but thats why. Because we are going to be watching. It doesnt matter the size at this point. Well be watching it for any of the ripple effects from whats happened. The crude with some of these companies, which we have heard were going to see some absolutely going to be some that cut back or have leveraged themselves too much and that either change or disappeared. Baker hughes reports the on shore count declined last week. That was the third week of declines. U. S. Oil producers are pulling back amid these lower crude prices, the lowest that weve seen in five years as the nasdaq gets close to the highest levels in 14 years. Obviously, not completely related, but t kind of interesting. The understand decks is now at 5 from its march 2000 high. Check out the leaders. American airlines up 109 . You will be very happy if you own that stock. Electronic arts adding 108 . If you think those are terms to impress, you have not seen anything yet. Since the nasdaq peaked in 2000 been here are the stocks that have gained the most. Monster beverage up 41,000 . Keurig Green Mountain up 34,000 percent. Tractor supply nearly 7,000 and gilead more than 4,200 . But how about the most talked about tech giants . Apple is up more than 2,400 . Microsoft is still 6 below its march 2000 high. Intel, 38 below its best mark that year. Cisco, 58 off of its high. Not sprooi surprised. Huge multiples back then. It was has 50 sometimes earnings. Coffee 38,000 more . Mon sters drinks . At the same time that the nasdaq hit a high there was a greek ship bubble. With technology, cocacola, it was almost a new 50 50. Lets check on the markets this morning. Finally going to get to see my oil board. Futures, down 8 points or so. Once you factor in futures change in fair value. The s p is indicated down three and the nasdaq is indicated down about 3, as well. Were going to have mr. Jeremy siegel on my buddy, mr. 18,000. European markets this morning, kind of ragged. I think as we get close, january 1st or about an back to january 2nd is when the trading begins. We start to see how this is going to play out. You know where people are. Theyre down in st. Barts with actually i dont think that its been a good month. I dont think beyonce no,ite not always a good month. But beyonce and jayz, theyre not there. I saw they were in thailand. A lot of people are, i think. A lot of people go to aspen. Im sure some on your colleagues on your its not a sitcom. What is it . Its a big time drama. Youre wondering what im talking about . Your show on showtime. Theyre doing a pilot. They were doing a pilot. I dont think theyre in okay. Or aspen. Lets see oil, my oil board which i have been begging for all morning long. Youre right. Not down so much though. 53. 29. We have not seen a four yet. Actually, we were talking about the wrong way to use it. We have not seen a four handle yet, have we . No. Yet is the operative word. And there was one put that someone sent in on twitter that i think was a 62 put, sorkin. It was 2 cents and it was bought and it was up to i think, 8. So thats 50 times 8. Is that 4,000 . Yeah. Its gone up 4,000 times. Anyway, lets check out the tenyear. That is one of the Big Questions that we talk about every day. What is coming there . Its just as interesting to talk about the tenyear as it is the stock market. And hes saying more of the same next year. With the fed going up, its going to be weird if they are. If they see the slightest bit of weakness, i think theyll lose their nerve. 121 now on the euro. 119 on the yen. Finally, gold has been hard to get over 1200. Its 1187 this morning. Lets get over to asia. Yeah, we have more on this mornings breaking news. Debris found near the last captioned radar message from that missing airasia jet. Martin joins us this morning with more on that. Martin. Guys good morning. As america wakes up today, there morning, grim and sad news out here in asia where it is night. Just a couple of hours ago, concerned reports, 40 bodies have been recovered from what is now known to be the crash site of airasia 8501. These bodies have now been moved to shore where theyre going to start the process of trying to identify who they are. But undoubtedly, these are part of the 162 passengers and crew members aboard 8501 which went missing a little less than an hour into the flight from surabaya. Now, i say crash site because of this found earlier today, it has been confirmed that stuff is debris and wreckage from the plane. Were talking about luggage, a door, confirmed to be from 8501. The president of indonesia is arriving as we speak, i understand. Theyll be meeting with the obviously distraught relatives and families of the people on board that plane and possibly speaking with the press. This is the first major crisis of his administration. Back to you. Martin, we appreciate that. Thank you. Any of the relatives or family members are waiting for. But remember last time how long there was a question and, obviously, this is not the what we wanted to find out, but there is a resolution, at least, in this case. It was just two full trading days left in 2014. Markets are on track to end the year at near record highs. Were not just talking about the dow in the s p 500. Right now, the small cap russell 2,000, the dow transports and utilities sitting at highs. Joining us now, mark smith and mara harris. Let me start with equities. Maury probably feels bad always being second. Well get your forecast. Hank, 8 to 10 up is that what youre thinking or are you different than the crowd . No. That is what were thinking. And i think the rally in the last two weeks that has seen the dow go up a thousand points has probably stolen a little bit of 2015s returns. That would make sense. Something more modest in the high single digits, thats in line with earnings growth. You dont really need any multiple expansion. I think thats a reasonable expectation and in any event, its going to beat the alternative. Equities still look like the most attractive asset class when you compare it to fixed income and cash. Thats our forecast and were sticking to it. So that will reflect that will reflect, what an 8 to 10 move in earnings and multiples stay the same . Yeah. Look, i think were going to get with a faster gdp growth somewhere in the 3 range where weve been averaging 2 for the previous five years. I think thats going to translate into better s p 500 profits in the mid high single digit level so you dont really need the multiple expansion to get to that high sympathy digit return. You dont think well have multiple expansion . Investors are finding and believing this is a secular bull market. It was only a couple of years ago in which we were arguing whether this was a cyclical rally in a secular bear but no this really is a secular bull market. We still havent seen a construction in 3 1 2 years. The one in october was not a correct. We are going to see some volatility. But just like last year we think any pullbacks are going to be brief and shallow because theres still a lot of money coming in that wants to participate in this market that is previously missed the bull market. What do you mean technically its not . Do you think there is some god that has given moses these targets . There is no god that came down and said 9. 9 is not good enough. It has to be a shaking out sentiment. Im not going to argue with you on that. That was only interday. That could make a difference youre right, because closing is all that matters. Would you be buying multi nationals . And that is the only question on the dollar strength. Over time the dollar plays out and really doesnt affect investments all that much. High quality, dividend paying and dividend growing stocks. You still have the opportunity to get better than bond yields in the equity markets. That is remarkable given that were up 200 off the bottom and, yet, equities still give you that nice yield advantage in many cases throughout all s p sectors. All right, maury. I now want to look to you. I dont know if you sometimes feel like alice down in the rabbit hole. Number one, 5 is that nor real or are we more like 3 . Number two, are you going to see wages start to do a little bit better . Is the 5. 8 actually 5. 8 where people can ask for more money . And then three, what kind of weird world is it where no one is really sure Interest Rates on the tenyear are going to go up even though it seems like things are going better . It is a weird world, is it not . And theres a lot of strange things going on. I think next year probably is a good year for the gdp and real times you have it at 3 . If you add that 2 inflation, you have a 5 nominal gdp growth. Wages are probably going to pick up next year. Weve seen a faster than expected unemployment drop this year. That can happen again in 2015. Wages are going up 2 . I think next year they go up more like 2. 5 heading up to 3 in 2016. On the tenyear i think once the fed starts to tighten, which i think they will start to do in mid year the tenyear yield is going to go up. The bond markets for a variety of reasons hasnt built in the fed tightening. And we think at the end of the year, funds will be up to 1. 38 and probably will have a ten year back up to 3 . I probably would agree with your earlier guest that stock res going to outperform bonds next year. . So is this something you thought for the last several years or i think just about everybody is surprised as how low the tenyear has been. I think its testament to how important the qe was. How important the feds purchases have been. That is i think, the big surprise. Of course, we dont have that qe going forward. We have a bond market that hasnt maze up its mind as to the extent of fed tightening next year. I think as wages pick up we have a pretty good chance of getting up to 3 . I think if we stayed at 2. 2 and were very cautious as far as moving up or even if we went to three because it was forced higher from greater economic news, i think the multiples could stay where they are or expand either way. I agree. It will be a good economy. All sounds too good to be true, though. Thats the other thing. And another 8 to 10 guy, andrew. A lot of you guys. I guess theres two scenarios. Were so volatile but you ept up being right. Or it could be up 20 or down 20. Joe no. Yes. Also to murrays comment that there has been over the past three or four years this expectation that inflation is right around the corner. And it hasnt been. Now with low oil, there is no inflation and thats going to be very good for equities and you might get multiple explanation because of the lack of inflation and low Interest Rates. Thank you. Hank did you just get finished with finals or at haverford or are you on break . Were still on christmas break. All right. Are you with your folks, staying with your parents . Did you get some good stuff under the tree . Santa was very good to me. All right. Thank you. Its very good. Yeah. Are you okay with that . Useless. No. You learn how to think and say was that the aventi or still to come this hour we will 2015 retail says the trends the track and the sector remains. The biggest risk to the markets right now, is it greece russia or the middle east . And later, a cnbc Service Latest installment of our Million Dollar homes game show. Were going to tell you which properties weve got and then let you vote on the winner. First, as we head to a break, here is a look at this day in history. Were right back in just a moment. [ shutter clicks ] hi there [ laughs ] im flo i know im going to get you your rental car. This is so ridiculous. Were going to manage your entire repair process from paperwork to pickup, okay little tiny baby . Your car is ready, and your repairs are guaranteed for as long as you own it. The Progressive Service center a real place, where we really manage your claim from start to finish. Really. Easy as easy can be bye do not adjust your calendar. The worlds most famous ball drop will be tested today. The 12 foot diamond ball will sparkle with almost 2700 Waterford Crystal triangles. The glow is going to come from more than 32,000 l. E. D. Lights and more than a million spectators are literally expected to jam midtown manhattan in the freezing cold in times square. Nowhere else id rather be tomorrow for the new youres eve celebration. At home in the bed watching all this. Maybe not even watching all this. Im trying to think of the other unpleasant things that i really dread that i would prefer over being there, except and you know what the reason . The main reason . I wouldnt be able to watch carsons daleys show on nbc if i was actually down there. There will be some great performances. Usually you dont play along with me. But now that youre kissing up to that was smooth and you didnt have to search for that was really good. Anyway thats why i wouldnt go. Large parts of the country breaking for an arctic blast and ring in the new year. Alex wallace. Alex wallace joins us from the weather channel. Like a long lost friend. We have this other guy usually alex, a very natty dresser. Alex is giving him a run for his money. Alex were not disappointed. Good to see you, as well. Not good news if you dont like the cold though. We have a big arctic high. Blame canada. Most of december multiple experiences of a mild winter. Were going to be talking high temperatures 20 degrees to 40 degrees below average. Temperatures that below average means a lot of single digits. Denver the high for the day, only 2 degrees out there for you. Omaha omaha, 10 degrees. Heading into tomorrow look for that cold air to move down into texas. San angelo 36 degrees is your high. This will work its way across the four corners. Helps to bring up some snow. Potentially could see some snow in and around vegas. Nothing we see too often, right . But there is that potential. Better chances as you head farther off towards the east. Guides, back to you. Thank you alex. Appreciate that. Happy holidays. Happy new year. This week we are looking ahead to the new year giving investors a playbook on how to cash in in 2015 the, so we hope. Courtney reagan lets see how she fared with her picks last year. Courtney prediblthed we would see activist investors in retail. And she was right there. With abercrombie. Very good. Shes smiling right now. Get some take away shot there. Mike jeffries getting pushed out earlier this month. And well say shes half right about mall operatorses and investors take a hit. The lease that own them have seen their shares it seems like a really big disconnect. Courtney predicting more shoppers and retailers will turn to outlet malls for brick and mortar shopping. She was right there again, ding ding ding. So the big question is what is courtney predicting for 2014. Retail saw a lot of changes in 2014. And the headlines wont end when the calendar flips to 2015. Here are three predictions for next year. First, sears stays for now. It wont see a resurgence in 2015 though 2016 could be a different story. Majority shareholder and ceo Eddie Lampert is undertaking various Financial Engineering exercises to squeeze out all the retailers assets while largely neglecting the Retail Business itself. Its not a sustainable wie to run a business but he will come out the biggest financial winner in the end anyway. Second american eeg sxl abercrombie are among the retailers currently looking for new ceos. The more vacancies will crop up throughout the year. Online shopping mobile and fast fashion has changed how we shop. Fresh Retail Strategies and it will continue to be a difficult task. Third, the line of the cmo. As targeted marketing and personalized shopping offers grow and importance those two with the role of the chief marketing officer. Previously a position that was more of an afterthought with secure seats at the head table. Lets bring in courtney now to discuss some of those predictions. I want to go back, if we could, to the previous pictures. Why is mall traffic going down . Sorry. I know. How can mall traffic be going down and the share price going up . Real estate is a very valuable commodity, no matter oftentimes what is being done in the space currently. And that is why i think were seeing in. I actually recently spoke to a conference in new york city with a bunch of deals. They said, look,ite not so bad for us. Which prediction are you most confident in and which are you least confident in . I have to say, so many people have been watching this year and wait for some time. I think it will be around in to 20 15. 2016. What happened to that company . And has is eddie making money off of this . Yes, he is. Hes sort of paying himself. This huge company has given some loans to sears. So we talk about sears as if its a grand failure. To him, its a grand success . Hell probably end up making a decent amount of money on this, and he has along the way, too. Okay. Which prediction are you most confident in . I think the last one. The cmo, the chief marketing officer. Marketing was an after thought. Its all about finding your officer and targeting to her. The best cmo in the business right now . I think the best Marketing Team in general led by the cmo is someone we talk about all the time. Sure. The more involved the ceo, that helps, as well. That guy. Hes also a good manager. Is. Wouldnt want to be him and then did she no. Women want to be with him and men want to be him. Right. You did make a prediction on mc hammer pants. I did make a prediction. Will they stay as popular as they are now in all the different colors . What are they called . The mc hammer pants b. That was from 1989. Theyre back. Oh maybe shes so far joggers . They were two years ago. No no no. This is going to be the hot item of 2015 . Active wear. I thought lululemon was they told me to tease that so long ago. Well talk about that another day. A tease will make you stay glued to the screen. Lets see if this works. Coming up the greek bailout is at risk. Also, theres fighting in li