Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20150108 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box January 8, 2015

Again, that was a moment of silence marking the attack yesterday, the victims who perished in that attack. Hadley gamble is in paris with the latest and she joins us right now. Good morning. Its a national day of mourning here in paris. People gather in simple. We heard from president hollande earlier today, as well. Let me give you the details of what we know now. There are reports that two suspects have been located in northeast france. Cnbc has yet to confirm those reports. This is a very fluid situation. Many reports coming in. Were trying to sift through all of that. Here is what we do know. Overnight, the two suspects believed to french authorities, theyre chasing them as we speak. Many are now saying that these guys have linked to terrorist organizations, as well. They have been convicted on terrorist charges in the past. A third suspect into police overnight. We understand understand several people have been questioned in this incident. In a separate incident this morning, one Police Officer was shot dead. There are no links yet between this incident which took place in southern paris and the incident we saw at Charlie Hedbo yesterday. Can you tell us what the mood is in paris right now . It is a very somber mood. You can see the rain coming down, as well. We heard from president hollande overnight. He said these victims, the shooters, they will be brought to justice. There is a mood of solidarity here, people coming out in support of the folks that were killed yesterday, of the victims. You have to remember that press fro come is something that here in france they take very seriously. This is something weve seen across all the covers of the french dailies today, many of the messages. I am charlie, we are charlie. So, of course, well watch as we go forward to see what european leaders come out in response to this. Thanks becky. Jobless claims are coming out at 8 30 eastern time. Its expecteded to fall slightly to 290,000. The nations retailers will report december samestore sales today. Average analysts are looking for comps 378 during the key Holiday Shopping month. And president obama will be delivering a big speech on housing in phoenix today. We could be discussing the fhas move to reduce annual mortgage insurance premiums and widen financing access to home buyers. Joe. Check on the futures. After all is said and done yesterday after going up triple digits, pulled back and ended up accelerating at the end of the close, about 176 on the industrials. Remember, we were waiting for 18. We finally got it. We pulled back the first week of the of the new year and now 176 is where we are, indicated up nicely again today. For once we really dont have to think about where fair value is. We can look at the futures and that basically reflects where well open. This is whats happening in the european markets. We call this solid session up almost 2 in france. In germany, the stand utah along with the nikkei in the asian markets. Oil was a story, obviously, yesterday, it doesnt take much. It was up less than a dollar. So 48. 1. 5 thats a key for toerchb watch. I dont know 48. 85 looks expensive to me. Hes very interested in europe right now. And very interested in the Distressed Oil sector here too. Once in a lifetime opportunity. Theres the tenyear. Thats about as close as do we go out any further than that . Thats just under two, i would say. 1. 999. The dollar 1. 1980 versus 1. 17. Below 1. 18 on the euro. And a couple of decent sessions. Given all the worries that we now have on a global level in terms of just you know its just not a world where you can count on calm is it in any country at any time. Almost a new paradigm. It shouldnt be. Didnt we end the war on well well talk to didnt we end the war on terror . We have this antipithy on saying the wore on terror any more like that was a bush thing. Are we beyond it . Clearly not. Like you can ignore it and call it a shooting versus a terrorist attack. Just look at the last three months, how much attacks there have been in australia and canada. We called it the Workplace Violence. Were still calling it Workplace Violence domestically. And thats the question. We will bring in retired army current jack jacobs is here this morning. Good morning. When you say a war on anything, it presupposes in military terms that this is objective, that you ever a definable objective youre going to reach and that you have steps now to them using various resources in order to reach it. No matter what you call it we dont have that. We dont have an objective to achieve. To stop the attacks . But thats too loose to say we want to we want to stop the attacks and, therefore, were going to do these steps and were going to take these steps in order to do it. We havent said what it is were going to do to achieve that objective. What would you do given that it sounds by the way, that police and officials in france new of these people. Well known. I assume there are others in europe and i8d imagine there are others in the United States even. Yeah. And points out a big difference between europe and the United States. Cameras everywhere in the uk and france, looking at you everywhere you go no matter where you are. They dont have to go and get a court order to listen to your phone conversations, they can just listen to them collect whatever data they want to process it in any way they want and act on it. You cant do that here. Therein lies a big problem in the United States. We keep balancing the right of privacy with safety and security and the right of privacy wins every single time. The attacks are there despite being able to do all these things. There is not a little bit of malfesance there. Were subject to it also. You know what their movements are, you know what their intenses are, you read their emails and listen to their cell phones and you still dont do anything well more fools. 320 people out open. These are home grown terrorists if you want to call them terroristes. There are terrorists and they are certainly home grown. With as many people as they have in this country, some of them, maybe many of them will be disaffected. And among those, a certain percentage of them are going to do something. Are we at risk in this cup . We vernal are. Weve seen itments before when there have been attacks and there have been a large number of attacks that have been thwarted because we have information on which we can act. You cant prevent anything unless you have good human intelligence. Were getting much better at that. But theres a big difference between the United States on one hand where things are sometimes good and sometimes bad and france and europe as a whole on the other. France is a is really peculiar in this regard. In france youve got 7 to 8 of the population are muslims, many of them born in france. They are disaffected, underemployed or unemployed and theres no way theyre going to get employed and these are the kinds of people who are easily getting more susceptible in france . Much more susceptible. Here, like between people with a lot of money and not a lot of money, there is a lot of arguing about a large variety of services that need the be performed. Where are you in profiling . Im strongly in favor of it. I myself have been profiled frequently. Im not opposed to that. They profile when you go through the lines of security. If you are above or below a certain age, you dont have to take your shoes off. We profile all the time. In france there is no upward mobility. There is no hope of any upward mobility. Two steps down do you think there are ramifications from this . Again, is this a singular event . Are there knock on effects . In france you mean . In france and europe. France and the United States is this a game of dominos or not . No its not. We have to recognize the difference between a place like europe and a place like the United States. These guys or anybody like them have free passage from france to anywhere. They can go from france to the uk and so on. What about here how tough would it be . Much tougher here. To come from there much tougher to come from there to here. Than for them to go from france to holland, for example. But in all of Europe Muslim people are disaffected, no upward mobility. Here, whatever else we can say about how things are going, how things and what we do for people and all the rest of that stuff, there is at least an expectation that if i have a good idea and i work hard no matter who i am i am going to be able to be successful. That is not the case in europe and certainly not the case in france. Andrew your loss of the american treatment needs to be viewed in relative terms. It is rel live youre absolutely right. Thank you for coming on this morning. Thank you. Coming up the bulls are back. Were going to talk about todays test for the markets. Plus the financial world is worried about the upcoming greek election. Now there is shuttle diplomacy going on between athens and wall street. Michelle Caruso Cabrera will report on that. And later, a man who made a mint on europes problems. And sports mogul, he sees a huge opportunity in the world right now. He also tell us about it at 7 00 a. M. Eastern. Welcome back everybody. A big story for the Global Markets right now. The looming greek election it is a little more than two weeks away. Right now, the radical leftist leads in the poll. Some on wall street are trying to make friends with him. Michelle, this is auto man youve met with and interviewed several times. Absolutely. Alex yix syfris has been leading in the polls for the coming election. As a result, we know of Hedge Fund Managers who have been getting on a plane left and right to meet with him and his Economic Team to figure out what the story is there. Keep in mind, the guys who are telling me this say hes far more pragmatic than you would think. They have to say it because they want to believe this right . Im not saying theyre wrong. Its just that they have a book that theyve been pushing. Is this guy going to lead greece out of the euro . Theyve come to the conclusion no. More specifically they want to know is he going to pay me back . He keeps says he wants debt forgiveness. Greece is more than 300 billion in debt. But the vast majority of that debt is loans, that portion is actually the private sector. When we show you the greek tenyear yield, were showing you the tenyear yield of roughly 30 billion of bonds that trade out of those 300 billion in debt right . So hes reassuring them that no he doesnt want to restructure their debt we just dont want to pay those people back. So Angela Merkel yesterday said when she was meeting with cameron in the uk that they were willing to extend the maturities for greece and lower the interest rate. What in the business they call extend and pretend, right . The question is will he accept this . Because he has said thats not enough. He wants a full writedown. He says they look at our debt to gdp ratio. The debt to gdp ratio why do i, why do we like this guy even though hes a socialist . He is incredibly charming. Hes pragmatic, too. Because i agree with him that this whole euro system doesnt work. And number two, his main deal is the ollieigarchlieigarcholigarch. And thats worse than socialism. Over here its not kwies as bad. It will never recover. To even think its capitalism but its not. And this guy will take out the oligarch. I liked it. This is the enemy of my enemy, i think. Right. I dont like socialists here. I hate them. I wish they would lead. But over there its very weird. And you like him too. I knew you would. Oh, yeah. Some of my best friends are socialists. That never works. When they come to take us away im going send me, please. But thats the core question that were going to come down to, right . Theres a negotiation taking place in public right now about what are they going to do about the official sector debt. Here is the bottom line. I have heard for years, years now since they did the restructuring since 2012. Everybody knows they cant pay back the 3 left lane00 million. Now, you and i know that that essentially means youre not getting paid back right . But still but germans can swallow that pill . Easily. They can still tell their constituency, were not forgiving that we are getting paid back. Economically youre not getting paid back but theoretically you are. Do you think fannie would guarantee that . Under this . Maybe. By the way, they have 100 year mortgages in japan. Generations stay in the house and pay them off. So in fact were waiting to see can they come to a negotiation, a settlement around that idea and how hard is it going to be about that . Its talk maybe they can do something, were seen restructurings where they offer gdp warrant and then well pay you back based on the amount of growth we have in the country. Those are things being discussed behind closed doors. That is what theyre thinking. Of course gregxit. Its still a possibly if they dont come to a deal. And what if hes not in charge and somebody else is and they decide not to pay you back too . Unlikely based on the candidates that are out there. The ecb is starting to get tooid tight on greek banks, as well. Raising questions on weather theyre going to start to see money. I just wonder whether the gre xf grexit is kicking the can down the road. How is greece ever going to have the same economy as germany . Why would they have the same currency as because there are many many many people that believe youre slightly right they should leave. The biggest threat to the euro would be im going to introduce you to one in a second. I have friends that are seasoned economists. There are those who say the biggest threat to the euro is greece leaves and actually does better. Right. And then . I love that. Thats where it starts to i have to quick being so you know, people dont like that. Especially not if youre traveling there. Did they broadcast that sometimes . Yes, right now. Great moments. Right now. Theyre with me though i think. And its weird because the far right and the rest of europe are the ones that want the exit right . Right. And its different than right here. But the application in europe, youre not how did she visit in greece . You wanted to do the islands. Here is the thing. A lot of prices havent fallen very much. Thats the issue because they have if they went to the dragma it gets so cheap to travel to greece. I just had a vision of the octopus. You know who is cheap right now . Moscow. The ruble is weakening day by day by day. Andrew youre talking caviar vodka and tall super models. He has that already. You have java for that. Patrick is a chief strategist and as i said one of my best friends are economists. Covering the economic angle, john silva, chief economist at wells fargo. John, i just want to start with you for a second. You are pretty good with the gdp in 2014. Whats 2015 whats your number . A little bit better. 2. 8 , 3 . Not 3 . Not 3 3. 5 but just a little bit below 2 . The export secretarieser, the weaker event from europe, the challenge in china, that is a challenge. So youre worried about Dollar Strength already, that it could hurt oh it already is. The Dollar Strength has impacted our economy. So in wasnt weeks, we started thinking the fed has basically forever. But you think april they move anyway . They could wait if they wanted because people dont think theres any downside . I bet its june. Also because of the financial markets, pricing and trying to rationalize that pricing. The comments you made earlier, it probably will take one to two years to figure out where oil is going to go because we dont have any swing producer any more. Without saudi arabia intervening, we havent seen. No spring producers. And i look at your forecast that thatwell r we go back to the mid 60s, its bullish. I love that were even thinking that way. Why would it go back to 48 if were going back to the mid 60s . Youll be back some day. Yes, i will. And im going to ask you about this. Its still 40 higher isnt it or 32 higher. Yeah. 33 the is a pretty good move. But unlike the 1960s, there arent a lot of people in asia driving cars. Thats why its at 120. No way. Yes it was. Thats why it was headed there. It was headed there in some peoples minds, not mine. All right. Patrick, so it started off the year, the markets as the equity markets started up a little shaky. They had a great i think it was paid for. Didnt we have a great november and december . Wasnt that normal . Well look i think people entering the new year their minds are shifting from so far so good to what happens next . And there are a lot of concerns concerns about how growth wsh how slowly growth in china and europe will affect the u. S. Economy, what the impact of the Falling Oil Price will be on the u. S. Economy. A lot of economists think theres net positive, but its going to hit a sector that has been a strong growth sector driving u. S. Growth. And this is just general were six years into the a bull market, is it just too good to last . So i think youve got you had several periods, several episodes in the last year about five of them where people have these bouts of anxiety, but then as these fears did not materialize in the numbers, you had sharp rebounds. And i think youre going to see a sharp rebound again. Because weve heard theres a lot of idioms and one is that bull markets dont die of old age, they die of recessions. Recessions or the federationing Interest Rates, which they could well do but, you know at 3 thats not raising Interest Rates. No look i dont think that the fed is really the thing to worry about here. What is . You know, its funny, im worried about Different Things from a lot of people. I see the slowing growth in germany and in china as actually part of the positive rebalancing. And i think that we are going to have a hard time breaking above 2. 5 gdp growth in the United States without net exports playing a big role there. But the transition here that i see, the growth thats slowing in europe and growth thats slowing in china is the kind of growth that has been an impediment to u. S. Wait a second you think its good that this recession wont catch us or we wont catch a cold from it . Yeah, look, in china, a lot of the growth thats taken place has been investment growth predicated upon selling to the u. S. Consumer. Almost all in 2011 almost all, since 2011 almost all the growth in europe has been from net exports. It hasnt come from demand in eur

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