Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20150114 : vimarsana.com

Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20150114

Were off to the races now. Heres whats happening before the bell. Quarterly results from jp morgan and wells fargo. The economy also front and center and topping todays calendar Weekly Mortgage applications. Import and export prices. Business inventory and the feds beige book plus we have a little bit of focus overseas on the ecb. Top European Court giving a green light to a Bond Buying Program and thats heading out to speculation that well see more stimulus out of the euro zone when they meet next week. Take a look at futures at this house. The dow not so great. Dow looks like it would open down about 57 points down. Nasdaq would open down about 11 points down and the s p 500 would open down off about 6 points. Check out what could be the chart of the morning. Something we dont mention that frequently perhaps. Maybe we should mention more copper because it is a weather for Global Economic activity. Prices plunging to the lower level in half a decade. Prices down as much as 8 at one point this morning. The drop is worth mentioning because of the price of copper as i just said is a bell weather for global growth. You would think when commodities get weak they all kind of move together and copper would move as well. Although we have been saying the Oil Price Moves have been because of supply. Yeah but in the back of our mind we have been asking questions. Yeah, the metal is used in a variety of industries from construction to consumer goods. Well talk about some of his comments at some point. Frightening. Jeff who by the way correctly called the decline in Interest Rate price. Also i noticed wheres the ten year today. I didnt look at it this morning but that low is like 186. Were getting close. We were getting close. Definitely tested it yesterday. But i love simplifying things to where its probably not exactly right. Every incremental job in this country has been fracking basically. Shale. 35 of Nations Capital expenditures. All the new jobs because of the energy boom cap x goes to zero. May take awhile before that shows up in the line. But out of all the ways that we thought what will the next real problem be i dont have one person saying oil plunging the 40. We talked about it as the greatest thing that ever happened. There was probably a five or ten year bubble in oil and exploration and capital expend expenditures on oil and everybody thought we cant go wrong. Well always make money. Even General Electric got cut. That stock hit a low since 2013 yesterday. General electric became 30 i dont know what the exact number is. Talk about energy. There are official predictions from the United States saying that they do expect to see production increase in this country from 9 million why would they tell that salmon colored paper that. I dont think they just told them. This is an important global story. If we go from 9 million to 9. 6 Million Barrels and day and opec hangs in there with 30 Million Barrels a day when they put the money in to do it they cant cut back and its 30 years that it lasts. Right. When they put the money in they go hey no matter what we do we will be increasing production. So youre part of the camp that Oil Prices Going down are a great thing for america. The 120 billion cost savings. Thats going to be awesome for the world but theres a lot of people on the wrong side of that trade and that are leveraged and are going to say we cant pay the interest or the principle. Starting to rub his hands together a little bit. Heres where you can play. Jp morgan im draedeading that. Less than an hour before the earnings come out. Stuff in there. Being the person that has to decide. Its hard work. Its hard work. You may get another one. Lets take a look at stocks to watch. Tesla shares were slammed. I was talking to a guy yesterday mad at me. Thats what scares me when stocks get to the point where if you say anything he was mad at you for saying tesla. Saying Lower Oil Prices could effect tesla because people dont buy tesla to save money on gas they buy it because they love the car and its fast. Its different than the volt. Different than the gm volt. 100 . I think they sold like two last year. That may go down to one or zero. Im sorry. Elon musk speaking in detroit. China sales were unexpectededly weak. And they may not be profitable until 2020. They hike the electric car output by 2025. Making electric cars to the mass market is an extremely important thing so even if people are negative or say were going to fail i dont care. Im still going to do it. Well talk more about tesla with an analyst in the next half hour. Another stock were watching alibaba buying a controlling stake in digital marking firm add china. Terms werent disclosed. In other reports alibaba is said to be in discussions with an indian Internet Firm to invest in an epayment service to link india and china together and check out the shares of gamestop, the Worlds Largest video game retailer. Its narrowing its Fourth Quarter Sales Forecast after december comps rose 4. 4 . We cannot convince you. I dont have games in my home except for our games on the ipad. So i would think its blockbuster. Brick and mortar im a brick and mortar. Prediction in five years, five or ten years every online retailer will also have brick and mortar stores. Right but you need to feel the fabric or whether it fits you know. With games you dont. Whens the last time you went to a music store. Do you remember buying music at a store anymore. I know. Whens the last time you went to a photo there you go. Games are more in that category. They havent figured out a way do you have people testing the games at the store . Youre returning i guess you could do that. Trade them in. You can trade them in probably. I think its just a matter of how quickly broadband speeds catch up. Theres so much data. A huge chunk of it. Maybe over a 10 or 20 year period. Maybe in the immediate term get back some cash and it will be great. All right. I hope they do great. How about that. Just keep us updated. Ive never waiververed. What about now . Still short. 45. Bottom it between here and 0. Well make a bottom. Lets get a check on the markets this morning. The futures are under a little pressure here. The dow futures are down by 60 points. S p off by 6. 5 and nasdaq down by 11. 5. Thats not to say anything about where youll see the rest of the day if you take yesterdays action as any example. Yesterday the dow was up by about 300 points after the open but gave it all back and more at one point it was down 425 points from its session high. All of those folks predicting volatility have been right. Were seeing it just about every trading day of this new year. If you want to check out whats happening in europe this morning at least at this point europe is also looking at red arrows. The biggest decliner is the ftse down by 1. 3 and the dax is off by. 3 of a . Koreas market was slightly higher. Japan was closed since were not showing the nikkei there. Also Oil Prices Crude Oil yesterday hit a nearly six year low of 44. 20. That was as the uae said that it would not cut output. Its sticking with all the opec tough talk about what theyre going to be doing. This morning wti is down by. 10. It did swing after hitting the nearly six year low. Settled down by the end of the day and then turned positive and evening trade. Lets look at the note here in the United States. The yield at this point is 1. 879 . Testing those levels again from the shock lows that we hit in october and then all the way back to may. You were there. Yeah right there. And then finally lets take a look at currency and then gold currency youll see this morning that the dollar is up against the euro. Euro at 11748. This is on the idea that were going to see big moves from the ecb later this month. That court clearing that decision to allow them to go ahead with what they were doing. That was seen as the one potential road block. Look at whats happening with gold and you can see at least right now gold prices down by about 6. 1,000, 1,228 1,228. This has been a great buy if you got in a month ago. Lets tell you about the world bank. Theyre cutting their 2015 forecast for the Global Economy blaming stagnation in europe. Lots of speculation ahead of next weeks big meeting. Sema joins us now from london with more. Hey, andrew yeah a busy day here in europe. Some news that markets are moving on right now top judges in europe today said a potential bond buying scheme by the ecb is legal and necessary. Basically clearing the way for the European Central bank to launch sovereign bond buying at that next governing Council Meeting on january 22nd, next thushz thursday. The euro has fallen to a level not seen since 1999. Currently trading at or around 117. European markets trading down across the board but theres still a lot of concern that mario draghi will receive push back from policy makers plus whether full blown quantitative easing is enough to revive the euro ifs the central bank only decided to buy aaa rated sovereign bonds. A lot of speculation ahead of the meeting next week. Guys back to you. Thank you very much. We have been telling you about oil prices. They dont seem to start slipping and sliding away. They have been dragging stocks down in the process. The dow having its biggest reversal in six years rising close to 300 points before finishing slightly lower. Joining us is a partner and also cnbc contributor. Covering equities today we have the chief investment strategist and joseph who is principle and investment strategist at bessemer trust. Welcome to all of you. Thank you for being here. Lets Start Talking oil. We were looking yesterday at 44 and change. Now what. Were going to go lower it looks like. We broke longterm support. Thats the line drawn off the 2006 lows. I think on the financial crisis low is 33. I think i talked to you about the last time i was here. We have to go at least to clean this chart up and move up and where we can go from there. 33 at at least potentially lower than that. Yeah despite the recount cuts we have been seeing we had more riggs in service this december than last. As you saw from the eia report yesterday from the government the production is still going to increase for awhile. Not decrease despite the big cut so theres more supply coming. I dont think that 100 oil is reflecting supply and demand but is 33 oil a true reflection of supply and demand at this point . Were getting into a territory starting to represent something of an overshoot and this commodity sell off is starting to worry me. You reference the fallen copper prices. Theyre down by 15 . Live cattle was down. Limit down yesterday. Beans are about to break 10 so theres starting to be worry. Iron ore and coal have been decimated so theres more of a concern on the demand side than previously to this point. Joe what do you think about that oh, well not you. You dont care. Can they go lower, yes, zero probably unlikely. Oil prices are unsustainably low and at the end of this year youll probably see Oil Prices Higher than at these levels. This is creating a ton of volatility in the equity markets but we look at this as a net positive for an Oil Importing consumption driven economy like here in the United States and were trying to capitalize on it. Even though we pointed out this morning some of the concerns that this is a job creating mechanism. 35 of the Nations Capital expenditure is in the sector. Its going to have an impact on jobs especially those related to the Energy Sector and you have to look at certain regional economies like texas and north dakota but if you ask yourself what drives u. S. Economic growth you have roughly 2thirds of it coming from consumption and a lot of the spending number versus been encouraging. Were now seeing estimates for Fourth Quarter gdp come in with a handle. Stronger Economic Growth in the First Quarter as well. Despite value lagss in equity markets at these levels this is really going to be how long does it take it to shake down where we understand and appreciate how many people lost jobs and what the true impact of this will be . What quarter do we figure that piece of it out . Its going to take time. Not only is there the direct impact from Oil Prices Falling off, were seeing it in the Energy Sector but theres the Second Derivative and third derivative and thats part of the reason youre seeing this volatility pick up in the market. Everybody is trying to wrap their minds around it and this is where you see a clear differentiation between those focused on the near term trading activity and trying to make a quick buck and those looking to invest for the longterm. Let me ask you one thing that john just mentioned when you look at all the different commodities coming down copper beans, cattle does that worry you about the demand calls for this . Do you think that this is out of whack or do you think that things look good in the United States but other places in the world are having a rougher go at it and its going to catch us at some point. You have to look at the Global Markets. Thats a sign of deflation but i think the stock market is having bargain sale right now. I think the Global Economic story is sustainable. The u. S. Economic story is intact. And if you look at right now the fear is that corporate earnings. So i looked at corporate earnings and i understand why Energy Sector went from 8 to minus 20 . But for the life of me i dont understand why Consumer Discretionary got cut in half from 10 to 5 . It should have been doubled to 20 . So i think this is really overdone and i think theres fear out there and an opportunity for investors. Do you think well get more clarity starting earning season now and hearing from these communities. Its the most important barometer right now and i expect that earnings will come down from september 30th it was 9 and now its 0. 5 . S p earnings. S p earnings for 4th quarter 2014 and ive never seen it ratcheted down that magnitude at that pace ever and i think its overdone and its an opportunity for investors. Joe do you agree with that . We do want to hear what you have to say. Not now. Its deja vu all over again. Every quarter we start off and everybody is worried about earnings season and ultimately we see companies walk over these consensusments consensus estimates. Youll probably see eps growth with a majority of companies feeding estimates. You could be looking at the yield going down as far as 1 for u. S. Treasuries. Hes saying why not chase whats happening in europe whats happening in japan. Youre looking at potentially oil falling to 40. Hes laying out scary scenarios. If those things come true do you still stand by what you think of stocks . I do. If you look at whats happening in the bond market with Interest Rates we talk about treasuries and we continue to see them come lower and lower. A lot has to do with expectations on what theyre going to do next week. A lot has to do with Inflation Expectations. Think about what oil price versus been doing to inflation. As oil prices begin to turn around at some point this year i think its going to happen. Oil prices will probably rise. What happens to Inflation Expectations and what then starts to happen to yields. You never want to sell in front of an ecb action. Thats really just next week. January 22nd. I think its going to be a blockbuster. There in the corner right now they have to. It has to be a big maybe half a trillion euro. Any time the ecb has done monetary stimulus the markets have taken off. I wouldnt be a seller before that meeting. I think its going to be very positive for the markets. Gentlemen i want to thank you all for coming in today. Thank you. Okay. When we come back another Michael Lewis best seller is now headed for the big screen. Its not big well guess what it is. Plus a taylor swift fans dream coming true. First as we head to a break heres a look back at this day in history. [container door opening] what makes it an suv is what you can get into it. [container door closing] what makes it an nx is what you can get out of it. Introducing the firstever lexus nx turbo and hybrid. Once you go beyond utility theres no going back. If you have a furry friend in your home or a couple take note, today is National Dress up your pets day. Otherwise known as torture your dog. Thats a famous famous animal right there. Thats carl he swears its a dog. But he has a little treadmill for it and feeds it hamster pellets and stuff. Were not putting him in the dog category. I think lucky is getting up there in the years. How old is lucky now . Hes getting up there. Times seven. What do you think . We need to appreciate lucky. He has to be 7 or 8 years old at this point. Hes older than that. Hes losing his sight and stuff like that. Hes a very cute puppy. He never was not a puppy. Thats the thing. Well talk movies. The big shortcoming to the big screen. Reports say at a Brad Pitt Christian bale and Ryan Goseling is set to star. Its chronicling the events that lead to the financial crisis. Pitt will coproduce the film through his company. In other hollywood news is it on the front page of the Financial Times this morning. Talking about it this is they at least thought this was

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