Live from new york where business never sleeps, this is quarterback. Squawk box. If you can get mork and mindy from happy days, theres something to be done there for sure. Good morning. Welcome to squawk box on cnbc. Im Michelle Carusocabrera along with joe kernen and Steve Leisman. Stock market is closed today for good friday but there will be some trading. Equity futures will be open until 9 15 a. M. Eastern time and you can change on globe x until 11 15 a. M. Brent crude is trading. As for the jobs report forecasters say the economy likely added 248,000 jobs last month. The Unemployment Rate is seen as Holding Steady at 5. 5 and hourly average earnings expected to rise. 2 . So the Labor Department works on good friday. I think a portion does. Here are the other stories were watching at this hour. Iran, the u. S. And other world powers reaching a deal on a framework to curb tehrans nuclear program. This comes after eight days of marathon talks in switzerland. Details to be worked out and sanctions remain in place until a final deal is reached. More from john harwood in just a minute. In Corporate News ibm reportedly hiring investors to deal with restless investor in an attack by funds. Looking for help from activists to shake up the tech giant. But are said to have turned them down. And toyota is ending its expansion freeze. Reportedly planning to make 1. 3 billion to build new plants in mexico and china. Announcement could come this month. Were less than 90 minutes away now from the jobs report. Im not sure what time it is here. Its weird starting at 7 00 but its good. Our guest host this hour allison deans and a cnbc contributor. Before we get to you, i want to ask leisman. Wasnt it 284 before gdp . Nobody changed. Why do you think that is . Lazy . Adp has been a little bit below. Explain what happened. Adp is pretty good. And they missed. They were well below its been running within about 45,000 or so. And how short was it . It was 189. 40 or 50 short. And they didnt touch the 240. So i didnt see very many. Maybe one or two guys said theres downside risk. I remembered it was 248 before and you said 248 today. I know. Okay. So, hi. Thanks for coming in. Were only here for two hours, you guys. We told you that right . So weve really got to get three hours worth of information into two hours somehow without the stock market trading today. If they talk at the same time you talk we do not do that typically. Doing it right now. You didnt come down after adp . No. I mean three of the last four months have been terrible for adp. When you look at the last two years combined the average is close enough to 30,000 on a median basis. December was almost perfect. November missed by over 100,000. Its been on a cold streak. I want to ask allison first, is the fed still data dependent or are they doing it in june . I get the feeling it doesnt matter what happens from here. The number today could influence what theyre going to do. They need to do it. A quarter point is not going to hurt us. I think theyre still data dependent. Really . I think it might include stock market data. Even if some of the trends look favorable, corporate profits are under pressure right now. Thats not their mandate. Why would they do that . Well their mandates questionable. Fingers and toes. They were supposed to protect the soundness of the financial system. If theyre worried the stock market might make people nervous, it might be rationalism for them to hold off until later in the year. Then were in that cycle, right . If the market scares them they dont. Theres no difference between zero and a quarter. They need to get it started, steve. I think thats probably right that given the state of the economy that zero Interest Rates are wrong. But i think what they want to see is when theyre data dependent, i think theres a difference between maybe the markets conception of data and their conception. Theyre look at is the medium Term Forecast and how a single data point influences more of the long run. You know what . Ive seen people say its off to the races after the claims number that weve suddenly got past stall speed and things are cranking. There shouldnt be a reason for them not to do it in june. The numbers are going to start getting better. They have been better already arguably. In the last 12 months payrolls have averaged 2. 4 . The arithmetic is so overwhelming that unemployment is going to keep on coming down unless employment growth slows dramatically. At the end of the day its the employment rate thats first on the list for the fed. If it keeps falling, they will be tightening. Do they hold off until september . Tell me if im wrong, but i think people missed a little thing in a recent speech that yellen gave where she said were effectively prepared to hike if the core rate remains the same. Everybody said that that was a hugely dovish speech. Youre talking about inflation. And i think thats a little bit of a game changer. I think she has said that before. She also said shed be quite worried if it slowed any further. Now, since then actually the core pc did tick up from 1. 3 to 1. 4. I think number one on her list is the employment rate. The way the fed views the world, its a key leading indicator of inflation pressure. Has the move in inflation been enough for the critics out there who say if the mandate is both employment and inflation that inflation is at risk of falling and its not moving up fast enough. And thats why you wouldnt raise Interest Rates. I think if it looks fairly stable but if unemployment is clearly trending down then the fed will look ahead and say the downturn will push inflation up. Thats the structure theyre working with right now. I think if unemployment is on a down trajectory they stay on for tightening. Wouldnt you think a reasonable and competent fed chairman would probably emphasize unemployment more than inflation . I mean its not going to go lower. Europes going to recover. Were not in danger of deflation. You dont need to get to 2 . Thats a great thing to have 2 inflation, but i dont think its that profound to say im going to deemphasize inflation. But i also think theyre going to look at wage growth. Weve had this great trend in unemployment. But we havent seen much in the way of wage growth. Its going the drive potential inflationary trends. While people having going back to work, theyre going to lower pay than they had before the crisis. Seeing that change in attitude and the change in direction of pay is something i think will make it but it has started. Announcement by mcdonalds and walmart. Is that real because they cant attract workers . My sense is political. I think its the protesting around minimum wage. Probably both. You get tj maxx and walmart and all these guys. Theres so far to go. I pushed back on jim and said the Unemployment Rate will come down but the amount of slack in the labor market we dont know what the right Participation Rate is. To stabilize the Participation Rate. Okay . So we have not yet attracted people back into the workforce. I could see a scenario where wage go up at a rate. Im better off not working. Maybe im better off not working which creates this slack. I dont know that krueger is right here. That the people that left aint coming back. I think possibly they come back. Done about three points since it began. Saying theyre not looking for a job. Therefore not in the workforce but they want a job is about half a percentage point of that difference. Im not saying the whole three points or so drop is secular, but the bulk of it is. People retire and you look at other numbers saying that jobs are they have trouble finding workers or people saying jobs are plentiful, those numbers are all fairly consistent with the down trend in the Unemployment Rate. One thing we didnt say is i think its a possible because all the other data is weak that the jobs number could be weak as well. Theres been a bunch of stuff out there thats disappointed from retail sales to spending. Looks like we had softness in the First Quarter. I would not be surprised if that number was that portends a really strong number. Anyway thank you. Your work i dont i use you counterintuitively now. My work has been great until the last four months. Then it was im betting on a strong number. Much like adp and the other economists. I wont do my own estimate because nobody cares what my estimate is. I did john 3 16. You did scripture. I did pi and i got it right when i did pi. To a point. It was 314,000. What else have i done . A smiley face. I dont know what to do today. People could write in and give you a suggestion. Im not sure what to do. Anyway, thank you. Weve got to go on to this other youre going to be here. Alison is staying for the hour. Youve got to leave jim. We liked her better. See you later, thanks. The global story, the iran deal after marathon talks in switzerland. Supporters of the Iranian Foreign minister giving him a heros welcome today upon his arrival. But Benjamin Netanyahu calling the deal an historic mistake. In washington critics are already lining up as the focus turns on Convincing Congress to support the deal. If Congress Kills this deal not based on expert analysis and without offering any reasonable alternative, then its the United States that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy. Joining us now, john harwood. Good to see you. It was suggested to reporters yesterday when it comes to lifting the sanctions, it was going to be gradual. But when you listen to the iranian version of the deal its that the sanctions are going to be lifted all at once and nearly immediately upon verification. It seems to me already that were starting to get into this gray area of disputes. Well i guess it depends on when verification takes place. White house is saying that the lifting of sanctions is going to be some years off and not something that Congress Needs to act on any time soon. Youre exactly right. The different ways this is framed iran came out of the agreement yesterday saying we dont have to shut down anything that were doing. The president said were reducing their the active centrifuges by 2 3. The president s going to have a burden of persuasion to the congress. But i have to say in talking to some of the republican Foreign Policy experts including some who served in president george w. Bushs administration, they were impressed by some of the elements of this deal which was more specific more substantive than some had expected. Its going to be the verification process, though right . I mean already people are saying all of those parameters are great and youre right, better than we expected. More specific than we expected. But historically iran cheats. And always has and theyre not convinced that theres enough theyre convinced theres still enough wiggle room in this they could start another facility. Thats the crux of the decision facing congress. Whether or not they can be confident as president obama said yesterday, this is not based on trust. He called it the most rigorous inspection regime that has ever been imposed on in a country. Now, all the details of that regime havent been worked out yesterday. Weve still got a couple of months to go until june 30th where they pledged to actually have the specifics. And thats going to tell us whether or not members of congress are going to be persuaded by that argument. John like so many things i read all the editorials this morning. It was weird. Did you read the Washington Post . You just said how much more specific and substantive it was. In the Washington Post with the key parameters on the deal fell well short of the goals originally set by the Obama Administration. The Washington Post goes in to go back and look at all the president s quotes about what we would accept and what we wouldnt and none of them were satisfied. So i got the post and i was like wow. I was really surprised they were there. The post has been consistently critical of the president on Foreign Policy. Reading the new york times, at this point its kind of like the old show not necessarily the news. Its kind of a parody. I think its i dont think theyre really serious half the time. I think its kind of a joke because its so off the wall and then i try to read the wall street journal and get the sense. They just said what you said. That there were some things in there that were better than some of the real skeptics were anticipating. So the journal seemed what fair. I get a little uncomfortable when i see cheering throngs dancing in the streets of tehran late into the night. That just makes me think that i dont know. Can i read you something from the tehran times which i think speaks to that . Do we have that full screen guys . In the framework of the agreement, none of Irans Nuclear facilities as well as the previous activities will be stopped, shut down or suspended. Irans Nuclear Activities in all its Nuclear Facilities will continue. Its a paragraph from the tehran times. I said that cant be right. Then i read the facts sheet. Im like you know the way this is written its vague enough to be accurate. Theyre right. I mean heres what the president s going to be counting on. Hes going to be counting on his wing man David Cameron as well as Angela Merkel in germany and the other negotiating partners of the United States to stand up and say we also think that this deal is worth doing. And so youre going to have a decision point. Israel has been very critical. They said the smiles in switzerland conflict with the retched reality of this deal. Were waiting for a statement from Prime Minister netanyahu this morning. I got a note saying his statement has been delayed. Well see what he says in front of the cameras. But the president called him as well as called other leaders last night. And, you know its a pretty historic turning point, i think. And for the president , hes got a lot at stake. Hes put a lot of chips on the table for this agreement. And when he does that and when he makes public arguments, how is the American Public which is inclined to want to deal and hows the Congress Going to react when they look at these balance of forces. Israel on one side allies on the other. Hopefully it will be vetted. Instead of just saying wow i hope they dont just criticize this and, you know itll be us that gets blamed if we dont do it and the only alternative is war, hopefully it can be vetted. We wont know for years what to think of this john. And how this finally turns out. Youre right. And, you know youd be open to it but like we say, dont just take their word for it. Youve got to verify vet it make sure its the best you can get. Absolutely right. Okay good. Did we just agree, harwood . We did. Thats historic too. Thats good friday. You know what . Were going to see cats and dogs hanging out now. Iran and me and you and us. All right. See ya. Thanks john. Coming up kentucky goes hightech. President obama visiting louisville last night to recognize the citys effort to talk about the hightech skills gap. The louisville mayor joins us next. And then Goldman Sachs chief economist joins us. Then the president of amc here to talk about the Season Finale of the walking dead and mad men. Stick around. Im sure shes showing off some bourbon there. Louisville, kentucky becoming known for more than baseball bats and bourbon. President obama making an appearance in derby city last night recognizing the city for addressing the hightech skills gap with its program code louisville. This program has been used by the Obama Administration to develop the tech hire initiative. Joining us now to talk about the Technology Skills gap and more is louisville mayor greg fisher. Good to have you here. Good morning. You started this program before it started out of the federal government, right . Tell us what is code louisville . We recognized a shortage in the community nor technologists like there is all over the country. We wanted the community to qualify and of course businesses are saying we need more not just here but all over the country. We developed a program here locally and began scaling it up with Louisville Free public system. Anybody with a library card could have access to the tree house coding class. And we have some community mentors. Weve scaled it up since then with the help of the department of labor. And what was the involvement from the Business Community. Say that again . What was the involvement from the Business Community . Theyre saying we need more technologists. Used to just have Technology Companies 10 to 20 years ago. Now everybodys a technology company. They said we need more folks for these jobs. We convened the parties and came up with a solution. Did they provide any support in terms of either financing or for spaces for the classes, et cetera . No. What they did, you know were always talking to the Business Community. Im a business guy. This was an obvious need. They were trying to fill it themselves so we wanted to come up with a Community Solution as well. Thats why we focused on the library. Anybody with a library card can access this service and it comes with mentors to help people get unstuck as they learn how to code. How long did the classes take . I mean you just go take a coding class at a library . It sounds so complica