Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20150420 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box April 20, 2015

At Country Music awards more than 70,000 fans back the at t stadium in texas. That broke the guinness book of World Records for the most attendance at a live award show. She took home three awards. Luke bryan won the entertainer of the year award that is voted on by fans. Lets get you up to speed in the markets. Check out the futures board. This morning, the futures actually indicated up by triple digits. The dow looking at a gain of 120 points. S p futures up 12 points and nasdaq up by 23. Weve got a couple of other big stories. Earnings central, Morgan Stanley tops the company set to post Quarterly Results this morning. Ibm reports this afternoon. 59 s p 500 companies have posted earning so far and Thompson Reuters have reported 75 have topped profit expectations. Thats the good news. But different story emerging on the revenue side. Only 46 of companies have topped estimates on the top line there. And in the big global story this morning, china, the central bank there cutting the reserve the required reserve ratio for banks by 1 percentage point, all of this of course in an attempt to stimulate lending in a slowing company. The other big global story in the markets today happens to be greece. The countrys finance minister hitting the interview circuit this weekend. Warning if the greece would leave the euro zone there would be an contagion effect. Euro zone finance minister says that greeces much needed Financial Aid hangs in the balance and the outcome is uncertain. This is a situation where people are thinking its more zp more looking like greece is the one with the massive problems not the euro zone. And give me more money, ill do nothing for it and if you dont give me the money, the euro is going to collapse. Thats his negotiating stance. I dont think thats a widely shared view across europe and the United States. The Obama Administration treasury is pushing hard for a deal to be made. I dont get the sense that theres a widespread view if a deal is not made and greece would ultimately exit the euro zone that you would have this massive couldnt stage you dont know effect. It has shifted greatly. The deal is okay so greece owes the imf and eu money, so eu and imf will give greece money to pay the eu and imf. Thats what it this discussion is essentially. My guess there would be some sort of effect. This isnt going to be a smooth transition without any problems along the way, but i think eu is more concerned about the message it would be sending to other countries that have some issues too if they go ahead and cave to these demands. You hope that if greece says okay we want the drak ma and they get it their debt automatically doubles, spain, we dont want to go there. Well continue on our path separate from greece. Obviously, if the troika relents to some degree the rest will be we want a deal too. When you stop paying the imf, you have a real problem. Thats why the u. S. Cares because were the biggest contributor to the imf. Can i make one point about the Miranda Lambert situation. That situation. I just saw a great tweet about this. Its the only time tony romo gets to see somebody get an award at Dallas Cowboys stadium. You are not even a giants fan. Im a redskins fan. I appreciated that. Got roam mow a chance to see somebody win something. Im a jets fan. I cant throw out any jokes. In the meantime back here at home weve got some other Corporate News our Parent Company, comcast, Time Warner Cable representatives will both meet with the Justice Department this week. They are expected to discuss competition concerns raised by comcasts planned acquisition of Time Warner Cable and possible concessions to get approval. This deal could potentially be in trouble for the first time and what is going to be said on wednesday and what they could potentially offer is the question. The big loser so far is Time Warner Cable because if that deal doesnt happen that stock is going to drop. The question is how valuable is this to comcast. There is no breakup fee. People forget. This is almost like a free option for comcast. I dont follow it with the competitive overlap is is that the government is worried about. These two companies are in different markets. I actually dont believe they are competitive. As a new yorker as a customer who gets i get third world cable is what i call Time Warner Cable. I want the improvement. The argument is from the content, its the content. Be able to negotiate if they were a giant before they were an even bigger giant. Combined 57 of the broad band market if they were to tie up. The fcc has got some concerns. I was reading a journal piece about this morning. The idea that it could get tagged for a hearing with an Administrative Law judge, that is code for we dont like this merger. They take them to these situations, in order to to countera deal. If you are comcast what can you give that would satisfy it . One is would they be willing to give up 30 million subscribers, the second be would you you be willing to stand by the Net Neutrality laws and that seems like a situation that comcast would say agree. The comcast has agreed to the laws in 2018. The other question really what comcast wants more than anything is the new york and l. A. Market. If you could corner those off and charter would be happy to pick that up. John malone would love that. I dont know if thats a willing construct. And how competitive is content now . To think that they are going to somehow dominate the control of content. Its scattered everywhere now. Amazon people that you never had creating content before. Here is the issue and im going to give you a segue to the next topic. Other meeting news this morning the wall street journal reporting espn is objecting to the new very rye zon vios packages. Verizon letting people buy preset channels. Espn and espn 2r in this sports tier that they are offering. In a statement late friday espn said under the existing agreements that they have with verizon and this is true of every Cable Company right now, they dont have the right to place the channels in separate sports tiers. Thats always been the issue. It would effectively 7 a head if you get rid of that. This is the issue and again now were into the who has got the power, the content for the apparently this announcement from fios the details we had gotten, were before they went back and negotiated. This a way to put pressure on the companies, were going to put it up for public vote. My guess is espn might eventually go along, you are going to pay us more. You are going to be paying us a much higher this is what happened with sling and charlie urgen and espn is part of that package. The over the air package. And everyone can see how much they are paying to espn relative to other channels which espn doesnt want to expose. I think most people understand. Thats a good point. I dont think i know what im paying for espn. My guess is somewhere between 5 and 7. The. The big issue, there are people who would argue to you just taking espn putting it on a separate tier is the equivalent like a tax cut. 75 for every american. This is the big stimulus package we need. There is that view and it just depends on how many people you think are actually watching it. Only 25 of cable viewers actually watch espn regularly but then its like 90 do at some point for some so then its a playoffs. I cant imagine a household that i know of any person i know who would willingly give up es opinion espn. Theres lots of statistics out there. Maybe part of their problem is the idea of being spun off with their competitors. The espn is facing their own competition. Mlb, nhl has their own. Espn has got a tougher road. Lets talk about a big week for target as well. There was a frenzy of shopping after the retail era announced it launch its Lilly Pulitzer collection. It had to shut down its website 20 minutes and limit the number of users. Many of the items are on ebay selling for double or triple of the retail price. It did create a stir and probably got people in checking out other stuff as well. We should tell you there is a big change for google this week. Starting tomorrow it will start mobile friendly websites. Small businesses could be hurt because lots of mom and pop shops are less likely to have mobile friendly versions of their home page. About 60 percent of online traffic comes from mobile applications, but i guess thats just telling of where people are accessing the internet and its on line. We need everyones view around the table. Were going tyke a vote on whether we would put money with this guy because former mf global john corzine could be planning his next career. Hes discussed plns to start his own hedge fund in recent months. It would start with cash from his personal wealth and outside investors, but the paper also saying that he most likely wouldnt be able to launch this fund until Legal Proceedings against him over now bankrupt mf global have been resolved. You should also note his lawyer said he was not taking money. He apparently has an office i believe in this building right here. Thats what the article said. You want to walk over and see if we can get an exclusive. Tim and an assistant, apparently hes managing his own money and doing quite well doing it the question is does everybody want to just imagine if he still held on to those portuguese spanish italian bond acquisitions. You got a big sort of deposition here. The tension being mf global took a whole bunch of its Investors Cash and it disappeared and slowly getting back with the fact that he actually got proven right on his bets on the european bonds. I would say no theres no way i would put any money into it. He should also realize that mf is not a hedge fund. Its audacious, ill give him that. When you have to tell your potential investors lets just say and see if the cftc bar me from the industry if we dont, then you can send many money with me. These are what my returns would have been if i would have left them on. Quicken is now turning the tableds on the government. This is one of those great ironic stories, suing the doj and hud over investigations. The lender argues its the target of a political agenda and being pressured to settle fraud cases. Lets get a check on the markets again this morning. Take a look at the futures which have taken off this morning with the dow looking at triple digit increases right now. A gain of 122 points and s p at 12. The do you dow was down 1. 3 last weekend as of the nasdaq. Lets take a look at whats happening in europe this morning. The greece story hanging over everything but at this point it doesnt seem to be affecting the markets. Not even in greece. In asia overnight, some modest declines when you look at japan. Nikkei down slightly but the hang seng down 2 . A lot of concern about the slowdown in china and what officials are doing to try and stem some of those losses. Were going to talk to eunice in just a moment. Oil prices a gain of 26 cents. You are looking at wti sitting at 26 a barrel. In the bond market the tenyear note is yielding 1. 7 . Well below 2 . 1. 87 looks like a pretty good return. When you are looking at zero returns in other government bonds including in germany. The dollar is up against the euro which is 1. 07 again down against the yen. Gold prices barely budged. 1,203. An ounce. Getting in gear futures are up right now, but the street still feeling the sting of fridays nearly 300 point slide. We should talk about what happened there. The drop erasing almost all of this years gains. Its going to be a long week with the threat of a greek exit looming. What do we think actually happened . How much of it was a bloomberg terminal going, how much was china . China stock futures after they closed on friday with the news were down about 5 to 6 and then you throw in the decline in europe and still some concerns with earning overall, but even friday was noise. The trading range in the s p 500 has been 202020 20. And yesterdays close was 20 smack in the milling of that range. It was noise in no mans land. All of a sudden around 6 30 things definitely took a turn for the worst. It seemed a lot of Different Things were being blamed. The expiration of options overseas. The tax dax was down 2 . It was a confluence of those things. We got to the upper end of the range and it was just an excuse to get us back to the middle part. Is this an excuse to buy this morning . I think there are three questions to this market. Its over the last couple of years, its been qe earnings qe is over earning looking more flattish year over year. Thats the main driver for the next three weeks. Obviously, zero rates will still be here debate when that changes. That earnings crutch is beginning to change and thats what investors have to be focused on. How much do you care about greece right now . How much do you care about china . Greece is a big deal bras of the unknown. Its not like weve been through this before. If greece leaves this is what happens. I think theres so much money owed to the e. U. There will be some sort of deal to get paid back but greece will be a problem but luckily its a small country from and from an economic standpoint therefore its not going to have any relevance. China has purposely slowed their economy over the last couple of years after the massive stimulus but they wanted it to slow only so much and they want it to slow slightly they keep trying to let it slow and pump money in the question is does this get down to the small medium sized businesses. Just watching things like we do every day with the tenyear note, it seems to me like this is more and more a game of relativity, every day we are looking at low, low returns, just about every other place, and it comes back to this theres no other place to put your money at this point. You can look at everything the fed is doing, you can look at our economy, you can look at all those things and you are still not getting probably half the picture of why valuations stand. Absolutely. We run the risk that yields get compressed to such an extent that if its not much different than cash then people say why should i take all this risk in security, whether its an equity or bond getting 1. 5 and cash is not far off that and i take no risk. Thats the one flipside of compressing premiums to the extent they are. Whats your view on the slowdown idea obviously we had a slowdown over the winter months and q 1 was not very good or q 4 was not good and q 1 was not good. How about the rest of the year . Are we getting a picture of that in these earnings . Well get a bounce back in q 2 but were still stuck in this mediocrity of 2, 2. 5 gdp growth, thats predom nanlly because productivity is so sluggish. Why dont we leave it there. Well at this point this conversation. Wur going to be here the rest of hour. We got to talk about this Hillary Clinton book. Thats what i want to talk about. I want to understand the cash involved in all of that and plus by the way i went into a big rabbit hole last night. I stayed rather late looking at the sony emails. I dont know what our policy i dont know if we should talk about it or not talk about it. I feel queasy about it. Theres stuff about dan loeb in there, hasbro deals. It sounds like a good column idea for you. Whether or not we should be reading these emails. Maybe. When we come back this morning, Chinas Central Bank makes a huge move over the weekend to jump start lending. Will it work . Our chief china correspondent will join us after we get we come back. Take a look at this date as we take a look at history. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise welcome back to squawk box this morning. Making headlines, as many as 700 migrants are feared dead after their boat capsized in libya. If that is confirmed, it will be the larger disaster ever recorded. Helicopters worked into night to find any survivors. Only 24 bodies have been recover. A survivor told the u. N. The vessel capsized as a merchant ship approached it. China, central bank cutting the required reserve rate for for banks. This is a huge story. This is a huge story. Were really seeing the authorities are there much more concerned about the economy than they were six months ago. Just over the weekend like you said it was 100 basis point cut for the reserve requirement and ratio. Weve seen these cuts before but they just have not been so large except in 2008 in the depths of the financial crisis. Its really a signal that the policy makers have reworried, especially after we had that bad economic data. Its the slowest since the financial crisis. What was really worrying people was the marsh data because the momentum just isnt there. Its really pointing to even slower growth. How do chinese officials get this money to these small and medium sized businesses that are starved for cash relative to big ones . How do they do that . That is a huge question. On friday the chinese premier actually went to the banks and was scolding the big banks to tell them you need to borrow you need to lend money and you need to lend money to the small and Medium Sized Companies because thats supposed to be where the investment will be. Thats how the jobs will be created, but the problem is that if you saw this move maybe five or ten years ago, it would definitely have an effect. But now these moves are having a less bang for your gdp buck. Its not really having the same sort of effect and the environment over all, were seeing, i mean i hear all the time about a protest going on especially in like the heavy industry areas in the northeast of the country because people just dont get as much work. You walk around and there are a lot of unsold properties and then the export environment isnt really strong. So in that kind of environment, are Companies Going to want to borrow money . Thats just it. Weve gone through the same thing here where you had regulator saying first of all the banks should have more Capital Requirement but also regulators saying we want money loaned to Small Businesses. We want it loaned to medium sized businesses and not always having the demand there for the businesses to want this. Exa

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