John harwood caught up with her earlier this week. Well bring you that conversation later this hour. First lets get to the markets this morning. We have seen a lot less volatility since people have been waiting to see what the fed does this week. You can see that the futures are relatively flat. Dow futures down 3 points. S p futures off by 2. We started yesterday down 50 in the morning and ended up 250. You have been talking about more than 400 points during the day. A lot of people are waiting to see what happens. Thats one of the reasons people say lets get it out of the way. A lot of stuff. He thinks theres a crash coming. He thinks there a crash worse than 2008. He says already. And that it pushes people into causing the buy back stock and inflate their stock price. Causes emerging markets. The feds exples sit. He thinks theres a reckoning. He says that theres a reckoning to come thats going to be worse than the financial crisis as a function of easy Monetary Policy. Right. But i dont know where it is. I dont know what the dislocation is. Lets get you caught up on the other big stories were watching this morning. The fed will begin its two day policy meeting this morning. Big question is will the central bank raise rates for the first time in nine years. U. S. Interest rate futures are indicating a 29 chance of that move. Thats up from 23 late monday. People always watching volatility and volatility has not, even in the past day and a half just stays where some people think maybe theres a better chance. In Global Market news chinese stocks jumping in the final 15 minutes or trading. Its pointed to suspected intervention from beijing. Government getting involved. We have breaking deal news. This is huge breaking deal news. Sab miller confirming that inbev plans to make an acquisition proposal. The board noting recent press speculation but no formal offer has been received. It plans to review any proposal and respond for its part confirming it made an approach to sab millers board regarding a combination of those two companies and never wanted to give up the deal making. First he does kraft deal and the heinz deal and back to beers. May not be doing mondelez. Is that something that we get antitrust regulators. You dont worry about this like in health care. Theyre already huge. But all the brands when they got together it was like all of those brands will be under now you put miller in with budweiser . This could be worse. I dont know what the ramifications are but could be worse in terms of beer, couldnt it . I think theres whos left . Heineken i believe. Craft piers and japanese beers. Its still a very bizarrely fragmented business. Who is corona. Distributed by one of the biggies. Why dont you know what that is . I dont know the i thought you were the most interesting man in the world. You should know all of these things. Whats that . Boston beer, yeah. Heres the problem is that the beer business is a very fragmented business. If you actually look at it collectively its not a growing business as growing as it should be and most of the big growing beers are all the small guys these days. Leave it to beaver. Do you remember him . No. Is he the kid that was always sucking up to june. No, that was eddie haskel that either became a porn star or cop in los angeles. Or porn star cop. Okay. Just to put it into perspective and you are right, they have 22 of the worlds market share. 50 of the u. S. Market share. Thats actually a very big number. What about sab miller. Hang on, ill get you that number too. They need to get together to cut expenses from making nonalcoholic beer. No one ever buys it. 15 i dont know if thats a global heres the market share that comes up i think for Global Market share. 29 . So youre talking about putting 1 and 3 together to become three times as big as the number two player. There is other Corporate News. I dont know how to read this. It kind of just depressed me about old tech. 30,000 jobs. Hold on. One addition because an email came in from somebody. Somebody that you find out stuff from. You never know. You always make calls. I want to put something on the table for you. Hurry up. They would likely have to sell miller and they would sell miller back to coors. You asked the question. And miller light is big not really miller as much anymore. You know who was drinking miller light yesterday on our set no less. Rooster. Rooster was. How about hp . This is 30,000 jobs. Cutting up to 30,000 jobs in the enterprise business. The tech giant is adjusting to declining demand. Hp is going to split into two publicly listed companies this year as you know and try to capitalize on something other than pcs. The cloud, 3d printing and other places but revenue here down from 130 billion a couple of years ago down to Something Like 110 now and meg whitman is indicating maybe the pain is close to being over but shes going to be talking to squawk on the street sometimes after 9 00. And the uaw and Fiat Chrysler reached a tentative labor contract. The deal covers 40,000 workers and the auto maker ceo says the controversial two tier pay system will go away overtime. It also addresses how to Curb Health Care cost and the idea is said to be broadly part of that pact and apple is rolling out its ios 9 update today. It will take less space on your device than the previous one. Now will it come automatically it will say do you want to do ios 9 . It will have the whole thing where it says number one. You cant get rid of it unless you do it. Unless you do it. But my understanding is it was going to be staggered today so some people that that update is going to show up earlier in the day, later in the day some people might show up tomorrow. Its because they dont want everybody having to download it at one time. The battery saving low power mode. Yes. Youre supposed to gain at least an hour. Thats value. Its the one thing i complain about. Its the one product feature wrong with the phone. It runs out of battery. Talk about all of these things with not a hint of irony that your life is controlled by Something Like this. It can make your life better if your stupid phone doesnt go out an hour quicker so you can hit more dislikes and hurting people on facebook. Now thats going to be part of it too. How much Mental Energy do you have to expend in a given day thinking about whether the battery is about to run out. Because i dont let it go below 80 . I go no, you cant use the charger. Ill at 79. Think about that. If you could remove that issue out of your head. You get gas every day too. Thats because prices might be going up. A 6 digit pass code and smarter siri searches. Thats a low bar. The new operating system will let users download third party software. Well talk more about apple including the highlights from tim cooks appearance which we all stayed up for on the late show with Steven Colbert just about 15 minutes. None of us saw that, did we . No. What about the debate tonight . Does it start at 9 00 . Starts at 8 00 i was told. Thats good. Earlier is better. But does it go to 10 00 . Probably and then a postgame show. I assume youll get a cooler and get everybody out ahead of the thing. Do a little tailgating. Its big. Youre like hilary you wont even see a word of it. No. Actually hillary is going to come over to the house and were going to watch it together. Is she going to bring her childhood pictures. She was cute. Shes really cute. She is genuine. Not the only candidate to be trying to spin things though. I dont see other candidates showing pictures of rick perry. They get a lot of play. When you reboot the 5th time, you know, were going to show a genuine nice person. Your pal hugh, what do you think hes going to do . Hes very fair and people know that he is likely to ask anyone this questions that are worth asking, not worrying about what the consequences of asking them are. Do you know much about him . Hes good. And they want that. He has those outlined in the republican party. They want him. The thing i was asking you was i was shocked that this in the new york times, your paper, that more republicans see you think all republicans will vote for hilary because of trump. The republicans you know i cant vote for trump im voting to hillary. He has said that. The republicans that you know are going to vote for hillary because of trump. At the bitter end at the bitter end yeah, right. Did you see, like 40 are now seeing trump as the potential winner. And carson got the big shot. Same with him both nonconventional candidates. Maybe if they pick bernie sanders. Hes coming over for dinner too. Lets get to other Corporate News this morning. Comcast is creating a New Enterprise services unit. Broadband, wifi and ethernet and other services to other companies. Comcast is of course the Parent Company of nbc universal. Sab miller and bud not the only deal news this morning. Also dental supply maker is buying Sirona Dental Systems for 5. 6 billion. It works out to 98. 60 a share for shareholders. That would be a discount to yesterdays closing price. Also shares of starz getting a boost this morning in talks that theyre in talk to buy the network. Theres been speculation about a buyout for more than a year now. Heres what we got. Microsoft announcing it would increase its Quarterly Dividend by 16 to 36 cents a share. Its up on that news. Thats interesting. What does it yield now . We always like to add a little perspective. But we never do. Yield now is 2. 8 . What did you say . A 16 increase . So that give gets it above 3 . Through i dont have it. Fed ex is increasing its shipping rates for its ground, freight and express services by 5 . Changes are effective in early january. Set to post Quarterly Results before the bell this morning. Of course well bring you that news and one more stock to watch this morning, united natural foods. Shares rising after the natural and organic foods distributor posted better than expected Quarterly Results. Seems like the rest of the world is there to some extent. Europe seems to be catching up with what happened in china. Does anyone believe that . Its a carbon copy, a cookie cutter in china of what we have seen in the last five minutes. But those 1 moves and three quarter percent moves following a great session yesterday on wall street, this is supposed to be a really positive week for stocks historically and lets take a quick look and youll see what im talking about. Up almost 5 . Figure at a what that would be here. It would be like 900 points so thats a big move in shanghai. Take a quick look at oil. Its now 4540. Now were up to almost 23. Were still at the highest yield above germany and spain and italy and obviously japan and i dont know what this says about what janet yellen is likely to do. They both have whats janet going to do. On the day of another president ial debate. Its early. That will probably change. Did we look at gold . I didnt see what gold is doing. Im ready to take gold is ready to make a move. Im ready to take it off our master run down. And try to come up with something to say about that every day. Its like putting the boe and ceb. Boe, unchanged. As expected. Obviously theres a number of market watchers starting to ask whether the market could have rallied itself into a rate hike. Joining us with more on this is the global Strategic Advisor at pimco. I said that right, correct . Your last name . Perfect. Welcome. Good to see you. Also phil who is global head at fixed income strategy at jp morgan private bank. Lets Start Talking about what they said this week. You think theres less than a 50 chance that the fed will raise rates. It moves up and down. Theyre obviously very atuned to global developments. A lot of volatility in global stocks and you heard jon williams last week San Francisco hiking. Do you think the market stabilizing a bit and coming back to some strength has been part of the reason that people despite that you dont think that theyll raise rates this time . We dont think theyre going to move this time. We think its going to move out to december or even january and much like rich said a big issue is international and especially emerging market which is is hurting china and the stronger dollar is putting a lot of pressure down there. Are you okay with that . About emerging markets. About them not raising rates. I wish they would. Do you know what can happen between now and december and now and january. Its only two months does it really matter but think of the things that could again cause them to delay this. Couldnt you get on the board . It could be the markets here and the markets in china. It could be the migrants, it could be anything that could cause it not to be a time to do it again and every month theres so many things that can derail plans to do it. But its two things. One do they move but its also where are they saying were going. So i think the market is taking some comfort from that. If that were the case wouldnt they look foolish for having raised rates. The quarter doesnt matter. I dont know. Or does it . Thats what the guy wrote about is every other time around the world. But thats the point of the journals lead editorial. Youre trapped an every time you delay another reason comes up where you cant get out and if rand paul is even 10 right about its inflating certain things. Not regular inflation but if theres bad behavior. If theres moral hazard being created. Well it isnt quite as bad as 07 or 08. There was no supervision. They werent all over the banks back then. But we didnt know that in 2007. Its not as bad as it was the previous time and it was as bad. And maybe other places that arent regulated. The regular issue here is janet yellen likes to say shes data dependent but thats not a Monetary Policy. Youre raising that point. You get fluctuate in foreign he i wasties its hard to sense what is the reaction function of the fed and what will be that path . The fact that yellen has not spoken in two months is also important to this. The fed will face a challenge whenever they hike of communicating what the strategy is. We have a range of opinions on the committee and it wont be enough just to say were data dependent. You can look at the Unemployment Rate and say thats crazy. You need to raise right now but inflation is not near what the fed would like to see in terms of inflation. But he did make a point of saying theres good reason to think theyll hit their inflation target. We may disagree but thats the communication we need from this fed. What are they looking at . What judgments are they forming on that . Theyre looking at the Unemployment Rate rather than the inflation rate. Its really their future indicator. Why wouldnt they raise now if thats the case . They should for domestic reasons but it comes back to international and thats what dudly was talking about two weeks ago when he was waffling on the move. What do you tell people to do in the meantime . The market seems confused as to whats going to happen here. Where would you tell people to put their money . One thing is certain, rates arent going back to historical levels. Theyre very connecticut ttaine long period of time. Theres a lot of debt at the market levels. That will keep growth depressed. Testimony graphic issues and then imported disinflation and all of those are keeping a lid on inflation which is going to keep a lid on Interest Rates. Youd tell people to look for alternative places to invest and push out to get yield which is why we worry about all of this creating the sort of bubbles that we have been discussing this morning . Yeah but we always fight the last battle. The last battle was that the financial actors caused a lot of the problems. If you look at banks right now, theyre so tightly regulated and have so much more tangible capital. We dont say the banks because mismanagement by the federal government caused it last time and its causing it this time. At the banks. Both times you can find both times you can find macro policy. Yeah. Some people still point to and not everybody i still think thats a revisionist narrative. In hindsight we say it was citigroup and jp morgan and goal man sacks. I think it was fanny and freddie. Home ownership. Thats regulation. Yeah. I think the other challenge here as well, it wasnt that long agatha the fed and yellen were talking about frothe in market shares. Identified them. But theres less now. Another issue with the fed foe cousin on markets is you go back and forth in a pingpong match. So obviously a challenge to communicate. Gentlemen, thank you both. That was they stayed at zero a year after she saw the froth. Time to go. Interesting thing is that fisher writes a lot of people are saying if they raise rates thats going to cause more income because people would just Bank Deposits and cds will have more income coming in. Its a crazy world. Its the liberals that dont want the fed to raise and its causing income inequality and the liberals dont want to get off the income inequality. The fed has been a trickle down wealth inflation. When we come back, a big day for apple. An update on its operating system and that includes for the first time, joe youre going to love this, ad blocking for mobile devices. I love that. Plus ceo tim cook. He stayed up late last night. Heres a funny moment from his time with Steven Colbert. I asked siri in a tweet to come up with questions for you. What nobody knows is yall did it. Theres questions for tim cook on siri that anyone in the world can access but nobody knew they were there. So id like to do one right now, okay, if we have a moment here, can i have siri ask a question . What should i ask tim cook . Do me a favor, ask him when im going to get a raise. [ applause ] i had elon musk on and then the ceo of uber. When he was here he said you know apple is work on a driverless car. I read that. So he has already given it away. You guys arent big on secrets. Tell me about it. Come on. Cats out of the bag. Here, ill video tape you while you talk about it. We look at a number of things along the way and we decide to put our energies in a few of those. Theyre doing it. Okay. We kind of have the i warned them about the convergence of business and entertainment. It might not be as good. Although you had a good skit you came up with yourself. I did but when people ask me who is your most interesting guest on the history of squawk box, we have buff