Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20151002 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box October 2, 2015

People and wounded several others at a Community College in oregon. The suspect was shot and killed after being confronted by police. President obama speaking out late yesterday saying that thoughts and prayers are not enough. This is a Political Choice that we make. To allow this to happen every few months in america. We collectively are answerable to those families who lose their loved ones because of our inaction. We will have a live report from oregon in just a bit. Business stories that were watching this morning, credit monitoring from experian disclosing a massive data breach. The information included names, addresses, birth dates, Social Security numbers, drivers license numbers and passport numbers. And in Washington News we have a warning from the treasury secretary. Jack lew says the government will hit its legal debt limit and be unable to borrow more money around november 5th. In a letter to congressional leaders lew is calling on lawmakers to take action to raise the limit. And more Hedge Fund Managers reporting numbers dismal. Bill ackmans fund is down 1. 6 on the year after losing 12 in the last month. He had been in positive territory. The firm hurt as the bio tech name makes up about a 5th of the portfolio. He was one of last years best performing managers. Micron technology is getting a boost after the Electronics Maker posted better than expected revenue. They will be cutting about 5 of the global work force. Expecting to take a charge of about 42 million and sprint reportedly planning to cut jobs and reduce up to 2. 5 billion in costs over the next six months. Thats citing an internal memo. No details on the exact number of job cuts but we had the ceo of that company on our Network Recently and theres no question that they would be cutting something. Nordstrom finalizing the sale of its credit card portfolio to td bank. Theyll issue all nordstrom brand visa and private label Consumer Credit cards. Take a look at super value. The ceo will retire in february. The current cfo will be promoted into the jobs. Take a look at the futures and youll see green arrows. We got the same story yesterday. Big gains in the futures yesterday morning and that all turned around once there was a disappointing manufacturing report that hit the markets yesterday. The dow was down by 211 points. It managed to turn things around and end down by simply 12 points by the end of the day. S p finished in positive territories. The nasdaq was up by about 7 but this morning you see positive sign with the dow futures up by 86 points and the s p up by 9. Lets look at the early trading in europe this morning. Theres green arrows across the board. Gains of 1. 5 or better for many of the major markets. The cac in france is up by 1. 9 . If you check out what happened overnight in asia, the nikkei closed flat. The hang seng was up by 3 points and the corkorean kospi was dow. Oil up but managed to lose the gains throughout the sessions as you saw stocks come off. It settled down by close to 1 . This morning its up. Wti trading at 45. 30. In the bond markets taking a look at the ten year yield at 2 . 2. 053 . Obviously the jobs report we get today will be important to see what the fed does next. In the currency market, dollar is up against the euro and the yen. And gold prices at this point are down by about 8. 1,105 an ounce. In the meantime lets get more on the markets. The economy as we countdown to the widely watched september jobs report. Well get that at 8 30 a. M. Hes the global chief investment strategist at citis private bank. Good morning. Lets do this first, your jobs numbers and how were you playing this coming into this morning and then i want to get into larger issues . Well, 180. Something belocw consensus. And these typically upward revisions, a lot like the august report it comes in light. In a couple of times time well have an idea where the real market is. Were above 200, 210 and we continue to see more, healthy job gains and steady climb in the Unemployment Rate. The market does what. But layer this on top. The news we talked about which is we are going to be dealing with the debt limit earlier than we thought. What does that do . Is that going to be an overhang on the market . Is there an overhang in how you think the market will react to that . Ill less concerned with the debt limit. Im more concerned about todays numbers for the Federal Reserve. The federal has essentially met its mandate for full employment. I want to see what the market does today and the dollar does today. The dollar is weighing on prices here in the u. S. So its all about inflation. Its not as much about the jobs. Absence of collapse in the United States. An absence of collapse in the economy will help restore confidence. The debt ceiling issue will be won but the markets focused on this in critical, critical timing after extraordinary measures have been taken and occasionally they actually make you worry that they will do something really, really stupid on the debt ceiling. But thats late in the year. Conventional wisdom has been if the fed is going to move its going to be december but steve raised the possibility yesterday that they can do whatever they want. They could absolutely go in october and thought it was an increasing possibility because if you got some calm in the markets, why not get it out of the way. Part of the issue is that the fed said virtually anything is on the table. You look back at 2011 and they had time based targets and rigorous things like the Unemployment Rate and inflation and its a wide range of uncertainty in the world. So unfortunately the Federal Reserve can tell us everything about how they will react to domestic Economic Data but they have this issue elsewhere which is completely open. Its not in the mandate. How does anyone know how theyre going to measure it leaves us with this great uncertainty about the fed. Do you think october is possible. Possible. But not likely. Probably unlikely. Given the rest of the world how clear can it be by the end of the month. I dont know if its clearer by december. I think it makes it harder to do an october knowing that you have to deal with the debt limit issue in december. But however makes it much easier. Youre considering all of these issues not part of their mandate. But they do. Its interesting you made a good point that it all feeds back to the u. S. Economy. What i read into last statement and fed speak since then is were worried about what whats going on outside of the u. S. Because its putting upward pressure on the dollar. Thats the one missing piece of the puzzle. Whether its october or december im a little more in the october camp. The fed has an Emergency Press conference system which they have been testing and in december youre looking at very low liquidity so i think its a safer move to go sooner rather than later. The history of the Federal Reserve has not begun a new tightening cycle in the month of december. Maybe we have grown up and its possible to do it then but its very difficult to find them getting all the ingredients that they wanted to that wasnt present in september. Thats the thing that strikes me. Its hard to say that things have improved since you decided not to raise rates. How do you justify that . And you can talk about the Unemployment Rate falling below 5 . What happened when the fed has not tightened. Its usually because theres outside conditions that are important and you found that in those cases over the last couple of decades lots of important financials around the world get weaker and the way they went about this created increased uncertainty. Had they said the dollar moved up and the inflation rate is around zero, i think it would have had a different Market Reaction. I agree. Its where theyre pointing to what there watching because you can understand the inflation argument there. But when you start looking at all of these factors and trying to figure it out, it becomes impossible. Are they waiting to see if shanghai falls . Thats what it feels like. Its much more about rate of change than the level were sitting at. The u. S. Data was accelerating. Particularly the data exposed to international markets. If we just see some stability the fed would be comfortable acting and the other thing is we finally saw the fed not move be bad news for the markets. Yes. I remember a few years ago when bad news was good news. The market would rally because well have cheap money forever more and we din see that. The market wants the fed to hike and the fed saw that. I think they are so deeply conscious of the market and saw that reaction and were disappointed and now they think they really have to go. Thanks guys. When we come back this morning, an awful week for commodity giant glencore. The company slammed as investors worry about whether it can cover its debts. We have a live report next. And later a special squawk conversation on the state of the home and what it will look like 20 years from now. Theyll join us here on set and be joined by top executives. First take a look at this date back in history. Welcome back. Now to the weather and the powerful Hurricane Joaquin. Jen joins us with the forecast of this powerful storm. A couple of interesting things with this forecast. Notably the track of it and where it is going. Lets talk about the bahamas. For the last 24 hours Hurricane Joaquin has been raking the central bahamas. But now its a category 4. The pressure 935 and the movement is interesting because its now made that turn to the northwest. It was either moving west or south and now its finally gotten a northerly component to its movement. So the projected path will take it to the north and the northeast. Off the coast of the u. S. Were going to see the projected path out to see as we get into the time frame over the weekend and next week. Not to say theres not going to be impacts on the u. S. Coast but we focus so much on the senor of circulation and we will see tremendous weakening as joaquin as well. Heres joaquin down here. Look at the u. S. Coast and specifically South Carolina and North Carolina we already had a lot of rain over the past week or so and were about to get more and it is related. You can see the connection and that moisture associated with it were going to see inches if not feet of rainfall. South carolina and North Carolina very concerned about flooding here. The ground is very saturated. Our wettest day on record last week and now were about to add another 3 to 5 inches of rain on top of that and thats concerning and especially South Carolina and North Carolina where we could see a foot of rainfall. Thats one big concern. The other is the fact that its going to be on the coast and winds will be on shore. So well see the coastal erosion concern and coastal flooding as well alock the eastern seaboard of the u. S. Its how the model has been handling this. The european model has been consistent with taking joaquin offshore. The american model has now made that turn keeping it offshore but both models keeping a lot of rainfall here in the eastern seaboard and midatlantic specifically and thats been the biggest concern of the forecast all along and remains the concern into the weekend and early next week. So thats the latest. Ill send it back to you guys. Its going to be rainy. At least its going offshore. Go away. Thank you, jen. Lets check on the markets this morning. Less stormy. What a segway. Remember were getting the jobs report at 8 30 so this could all move around quite a lot. Ahead of the u. S. Jobs number europe is broadly positive as well. Almost 2 . Germany is higher by 1. 5 . Italy 1. 5 and we still show greece out of, i dont know what, nostalgia . Asia is higher, hang seng higher. Shanghai and shenzen are still closed. Wti above 25 barrel. Brent is at 47. 84. The ten year yield ahead of the jobs number 2. 058 . We have been hovering around that number now for a couple of days here and look at the tight range over the last couple of months. As for the dollar, mixed earlier. Still is. Stronger against the euro and the yen. 120 yen for every dollar and gold is lower by 8. 70. 1105 per ounce. Lets head to london now. Kate kelly is there. She is visiting the headquaters of glencore which has been slammed this week. Its a very important story. Kate, you with us. Hey, guys, im standing outside glencores London Office where their focus this week has been on their trading arm after the stock market and bond market with their credit default spreads as well. The key question is whether they have enough financing to stand them in good stead if we head into a further period of low commodity prices. Theyre really scrambling to reassure this market this week after shares hit an all time low on monday of about 67 pence on the london stock exchange. Theyre moving ahead with asset sales. One of which is the sale of their metal streaming business. These are by products from their metal business so they will be selling those to a partner. That could bring in a billion plus dollars. The other asset sale theyre contemplating and hard at work on is a 20 to 30 peculiar stake in their agriculture business. This probably wouldnt happen until the Third Quarter of next year but the prone is it would bring in several different dollars. The end of year goal 24 billion down from 30 billion earlier this year. Now the ceo sought to reassure employees in a memo this week, a couple of key points that they had 14 billion in inused liquidity lines and in his view theyre not going to have to access to Public Markets again until 2017. They recently raised equity. There was also a meeting with creditors here in london earlier this week where some of the key points were raised to try to reassure people. A lot of concern at glencore and noted in the able list community about short pressure on the stock. But for the moment theyre focused on these asset sales as well as on a director meeting to be held october 9th. They may move up their november Production Report and theyre going to discuss the details at that time as to how much detail theyre going to disclose again in an effort to reassure people. Back to you. Kate, fair or unfair to compare this company to Lehman Brothers . I am going to say unfair. I know the comparison has been made many tiles. I think in this case theyre suffering from low commodity spot prices but they do seem to have a lot of access to debt financing. They have 50 billion in letters of credit that backs up their trading business. They have a 15 billion revolver thats not been drawn down despite rumors on monday. Rumors monday that they were unable to roll some shortterm financing and there were also rumors and this has shades of 2008 that some of the executives had personal margin calls and had to sell stock. The company denied these rumors and theres no evidence that theyre true. The short pressure t shortterm financing focus is all very resinate and im not sure that the comparison is fair. But do we know, are they dependent on the overnight funding for the trading arm . Thats super important, right . And whats also the irony here is their structure was supposed to make them stronger. We do real mining and then we have trading. So we have a diversified revenue structure but right now that structure looks to be causing them great weakness in the market. Theyre not dependent on the overnight funding market as far as i know. They dont have overnight financing. They do have a small commercial Paper Program that typically has a duration of 90 days. Its in the low billion dollars of value at this point. As for the hard asset question, thats a great one. They put a lot of energy and stock into this deal a couple of years ago as a source of greater stability. Copper being the biggest problem and if copper goes to 4,000. But for the moment theyre dealing with the same down cycle that others are and its a huge problem. Im not making light of it. But i do think the longterm argument for those metal assets may still hold true. Incredibly important story. Well be watching ripple effects for days if not weeks at this point. Thank you. Another story we have been following, a developing story, a gunman shooting and killing nine people and wounding several others at a Community College in oregon. Jennifer joins us from the scene. It was a long sleepless night for the loss after their students killed in the classroom but also the loss of their sense of security. A familiar scene unfolding. A candle light vigil following a mass shooting on a school campus. The students here in southern oregon, they never expected it to happen to them. We just dropped everything and we ran and when we ran out of the building everybody when every which way. My teacher had come running into the room in a very big panic telling all the students, 20 plus to come into a teachers room in the back and hide and duck down and shut off all the lights and dont make any noise. The 26yearold shooter gunned down but not before killing at least 9 students and seriously injuring several others. We have at least two officers that responded into the building within minutes and exchanged gunfire with the suspect. The assailants father in Southern California says the family is crushed. Obviously its been a devastating day. Devastating for me and my family. President obama says we have become numb to this. This is a Political Choice that we make. To allow this to happen every few months in america. We collectively are answerable to those families that lose their loved ones because of our inaction. In these cases, the president says, thoughts and prayers are not enough. That was jennifer reporting from oregon. When we come back, former fed chairman ben bernanke out with a memoir. We have that story next. Moves the world forward. Invest with those who see the world as unstoppable. 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