Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20151120 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box November 20, 2015

Koran. So by early indications it may have something to do with islamic extremists. Its especially big news in france today and the language of mali is french. Its a french territory. The forces went into mali just two years ago to try to clean things up after jihadists had taken control over the northern part of the country which i think is mostly dessert. I think everybody lives in the south. Michelle joins us from paris right now where im sure this everything seems the world seems much smaller to all of us now michelle but im sure to people in paris, mali seems like just another part of what happened last week. Thats absolutely correct, joe. Its huge news here because remember theres a long connection between mali and france. Its a former french colony and two years ago troops went in to try to clean up the northern part of the country because it had been taken over by jihadists so thats getting a lot of coverage here. I should explain where i am. Im inside the National Assembly because we are going to interview a right wing member of the parliament in just a few minutes. He is formerly from the government to talk about the fact that they have extended the state of emergency voted to do so just yesterday here at the National Assembly and the senate is expected to do so later today and thats been pretty controversial because it gives more power to the state and theres concerns about whether or not its going to tramp on Civil Liberties at this point. A couple of pieces of news that we just learned in the last few minutes. The french prosecutor say they have now found three dead bodies in that building in northern paris where they did that massive raid the other day and were getting more details now about who we believe is the female suicide bomber that took part in that raid or was in that raid. She is 27 years old and it is believed she is the cousin of the man being described by police as the organizers of the terror attacks that occurred here in paris on friday which left 129 dead. Today marks one week agatha the terrorist attacks occurred and we wanted to show you two new magazine covers that came out today. They put out this cover and its an image of a sidewalk cafe thats become very wellknown in france in the last week and the headline leads and now what do we do . And of course french cafe sitting at a sidewalk cafe is a very, very french activity and then the weekly magazine is out today and almost seems to answer the question. It is in blue, white, and red the cover, and it says below, beneath, we will live with it. So this country still continues to graham with what happened here one week ago. Guys back to you. Michelle, thank you very much. She has been covering the situation for us all week and will continue to bring us updates as things develop there in france. Lets get to some Business News this morning. Among todays top market stories ecb president mario draghi giving his strongest hint yet that the central bank will unveil more measures next month. Speaking in frankfurt, draghi arguing that the ecb is ready to act quickly to boost inflation in the euro zone. Among the possible tools mentioned, changes to the Asset Purchase Program and to the deposit rate. The next ecb meeting is set for december 3rd. As for the United States central bank, the Federal Reserve vice chairman Stanley Fisher says that the fomc has done everything it can to telegraph an Interest Rate hike. If that one enough for you hes telling you listen up people these are the hints. So much so that he says that the other central bankers around the world are getting impatient. In the relatively near future, probably some major Central Banks will begin gradually moving away from near zero Interest Rates. We have done everything we can to avoid surprising the markets and governments when we move. Speaking to a conference in san francisco, he did note that no decision on a fed rate raise has been made. The next fomc announcement is scheduled for december 16th but we have continued to hear this drum beat from every one of the Federal Reserve fomc members that we talked to this week. Now to the markets themselves, new numbers today show that investors pull 2. 2 billion from us. Stock funds just in the last week. This marks the second week in a row of outflows. At least we didnt do that. Emphasizes negative deposit rates, improved qe. So you can do the transmission of the Asset Purchase Program works better. Thats negative rates now. Right. We have seen some. We didnt have to go that far. But the world is upside down when you start paying people to hold their money. Keep their money. Yeah. It shows you how dyer it is. This i would say is a direct reaction to the possibility of a slow down. Based on this. I think so too. But it makes europe all the more hopeful that we will actually raise rates because that in effect would help them out as well. Did you see the ten year, though . Yeah. I think its almost two year is a record low but its in at 40 basis points now, isnt it . I think so. How are we doing at 226 . Getting like japan almost. At the same time the market is expecting a rate hike but check it out. As we said last friday, a week ago, four weeks now right. Expected hike. I dont know what i bet on, you know what, one day at a time. One day at a time at this point. Last week i gave you grief seven days ago and i woen guarentee that i know anything between now and tomorrow. No. Four weeks from now in this world. Some stocks to watch. Im going to go back into the where i can find some solace. Things i understand a little bit. Like nike giving back to investors during the Holiday Season. The dow component announcing a 12 billion stock buy back. And also by 1 and well talk about this later. Im sure that i think morgan probably going to this will change the make up of the dow in terms of consumer stocks because when it goes down in half it wont have as big of an influence on price moves and other parts of the index are now having more weight. Gap cutting its earnings forecast. Blaming the strong dollar. The companies ceo says he slooking for materisloo is looking for material improvement. Ross stores beating on the top and bottom line but the retailer cautions a Fourth Quarter could be challenging saying a highly promotional Holiday Season is expected. Shares of workday under pressure. The Human Resources Software Maker posting a bigger than expected loss and offering and weak current revenue guidance. Horizon pharma decision comes after a court ruling involving the use of a poison pill came out in their favor. And google announcing vm ware. The cofounder will run the cloud unit as the search giant moves to take on the Industry Leader amazon. Green is a google board member and will lead the newly combined divisions of cloud businesses including google for work, google cloud platform, and google apps. Lets get a check on the markets this morning and see where things stand with the futures. Yesterday the markets ended barely changed. They were down by a couple of points and did break a three day winning streak for the dow and the nasdaq but you can see there are some green arrows with the dow futures up by 68 points. The s p futures up by over 5 and the nasdaq up by over 15 points. Take a look at the early trading in europe and at this point youll see that things are relatively flat. In france, the cac is trading down by about. 2 . In germany the dax is up by. 1 . The ftse is flat and in italy, the ftse mib is down by. 6 . Overnight in asia, you saw that the nikkei ended up by. 1 . Stocks were higher in china with the hang seng up by 1. 1 . Oil prices were something to watch yesterday. You did see Oil Prices End a little bit lower yesterday. The december contract for wti was all the way down at 40. 58 cents. Today its at 40. 22. At the end of the session today youll see wti roll to the january contract and thats been trading a little bit higher so well see what moves we get there. Also whats happening in the bond market as joe mentioned, the yield coming under pressure. Youre now looking at the ten year trading at 2. 255 to be exact. The two year was higher in the Late Afternoon session for that yield. It was sitting just under. 9 but obviously people watching this very closely as we do get closer to a potential fed rate hike. Check out the dollar. Yesterday there was some pressure on the dollar. Dollar index lost about. 5 in its biggest drop since late october. The dollar is stronger fweagain the euro today. Dollar is down fwens the yen at 122. 81 and gold prices which were slightly higher yesterday are up another 6. 80. 1,084. 70 an ounce. Ken griffin telling cnbc in a rare sit down interview that the fed waited to hike because it doesnt want to paint itself into a corner. If we have to head back toward zero, that means that some shock has taken place or the economy is shockingly turned south. And i think that if that were to happen, i think that would be a cause for concern because it will be perceived the fed has fewer degrees of freedom to reignite growth. So i think one of the reasons the fed has waited so long to raise rates thus far is to combat that very concern. Okay. Offered him a chair thinking that on vbviously hes not goino take it and then surprising everyone he sat down for the interview. Lets bring in the executive director of u. S. Equity and derivative strategy at ubs and boris i was up until 11 00 last night and have to say that first thing in the morning. Boris, you do it fast too. Youre from new york. Were both from the midwest. Proudly. Okay. There you go. So im looking at these yields, 49 basis points. Ten year. Right. I understand that maybe europe at this point can use a little help on its currency because maybe theres a slow down from whats happening there with tourism. People not going after restaurants, but this is something we were worried about before. 2. 25 for us and 49 basis points for germany. Fixed income markets and the smartest markets in the world an theyre just telling you that even if the fed moves its going to be very much a one and done. I think ken griffin is absolutely right. The only reason they havent moved is because they want to make sure that they dont repeat the boj debacle which is you hike rates and youre forced to have to come back down to zero. So one of the reasons why i think the euro doesnt have that much more down side to go is the market has already discounted the idea. Im going to do the hike and theres nothing much more left for awhile. What is going to happen if the fed doesnt do anything . What does that do to the markets . Created a massive short squeeze in the dollar. We saw lal bit of a symbol of that yesterday when the dollar collapsed. But the fed doesnt hike only i think if we have horrendous shock. Another horrendous thats the one thing that nobody can handicap and that is the one thing that could freeze all economic activity. Weve already seen complaining that a lot is going on. Thats the only thing that really kind of holds the fed back. Assuming that we have a normal environment were on a glide path definitely. You saw the magazine cover in paris. One of the caves outside of it one of the terrorists tries to kill this woman and the gun jams and she escapes but watching it is surreal because it looks like some really horrible movie. So that would explain maybe the Market Action too. Yes. My thought was this was going to happen. I thought the dollar rally would happen but the markets were anticipating that a month ahead of time and thats why you see the dollar rally stall. Youre seeing the yields flatten out and equities going up. Its always been about liquid quiddity i think. The markets. You should never fight the fed. Its up, oh my god. And that was the old cartoon. The stock market sold off on a an asteroid was going to strike the earth and destroy it but it rallied in the afternoon when the money supply was low. I think we have to take a step back here and look at this week. You had just untold tragedy a week ago and yet the equity markets have had an absolutely phenomenal week. Theres resilience there and when you look at the fed the equity markets expect a hike and not to hike in december would send what we think would be a negative signal to equity markets but then looking forward, we take them at their word in terms of data dependency. We expect more hikes as we get into 2016 but they said they wanted this flexibility and theyre going to have to manage the process. What do you attribute the resil yen sy to after such a horrific event . Market has been up every single day. Only one and done. What else . Its not earnings. Its not the prospect for things being better any time soon actually, to a certain extent it is earnings. We feel that the Fourth Quarter marks the trough and when you look to 2016 the bar is not set that high in terms of expectations and if you get a mere normalization and boris eluded to this in the currency markets the fx effects go away and Energy Effects go to way its easy to see where you get to a path where you grow at 5 and coming off a year like this that will be enough to keep stocks going higher. This was a consolidation year. Absolutely. But energy, nice tail wind. I dont know if you saw the note. It hasnt been a tail win. Thats been one of the problems. Its a problem in the sense that the industrial demand but on a more macro scale if it stays at these lows, they were arguing that it could go down to 20 this winter because were at 65 all day outside and theres no demand. Let me ask you, number one, how is the Sanders Campaign going . Number two. Global warming worse than terror . Its apples and oranges comparison. Of course terror is worse right now but Global Warming is a much longer problem. So to defeat isis should we drive a prius . A tesla. Stay with that. Absolutely. All right. Thanks guys. Thank you gentlemen. When we come back this morning, continuing coverage of this mornings breaking news in africa. Report that ten attackers have taken 170 people hostage in a luxury hotel in mali. Plus our news maker of the morning, jeb bush will join us in studio. Stay tuned. Squawk box will be right back. When youre not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. At ts Innovative Solutions connect machines and people. To keep your internet of things insync, in realtime. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. Tom, thank you very much for being here today. Good to be here becky. We continued to watch oil prices. You know . We talked to people about six months ago and said as soon as Oil Production slows down and shuts down in some of the wells youre going to see prices pick back up. Thats not been the case. Youre looking at wti sitting about 40 this morning at 40. 08. Whats going on . Well, the decline in production in the u. S. Has not come along as fast as people thought. Its about half as far down as we were first hearing. Even a month ago. There was a belief that u. S. Production had probably contracted by about 600,000 barrels a day. Its less than half of that at this point. And i think thats a big factor. That was a surprise. Even the government statistics were beginning to look like it was down and then theres been some correction. I think thats the biggest single factor. And then also were also not seeing any change yet in either russia or opec. So i think that is the thats why youre hearing this lower for longer thesis. That said, the contraction in Capital Spending globally has progressed and its very hard for me to imagine well go through all of 2016 without seeing some real effects from that diversion of capital because the imbedded decline is out there and i think well see some effects probably by mid 2016. Even though youre talking about a rebound in prices, youre not talking about getting anywhere near what we wrused to consider normal. Youre talking about 50 for wti by the first half of 2016. I think thats right, becky. Something like that and then if you get back out to the end of the year, going into 2017, maybe we get into the 60 to 70 range. And that is simply because theres just so much more oil supply than we have seen in the past or is this a reflection of poor demand as well . Its also a reflection that the industry is becoming much more efficient at developing oil at these lower prices. Theres been a lot of innovation thats come along. The other point that was mentioned a few years ago about the goldman talk about a lower price 20. If we were to test into the 30s, i doubt well get as low as the 20 test other than for a very brief time but if we were to get that, its, in all likelihood going to create a real pressure on opec because opec has a higher cost structure in general when you really factor in the cost to run their government, their security needs and so on and all of that would create a real problem i think within opec itself and maybe create the path to a real focus on how to get to a more workable and sustainable price in that 50 to 70 range. Somewhere down the road. Thank you so much for joining us today again. Coming up the race for the white house in light of the last week. Republican president ial hopeful jeb bush will join us in studio. Governor bush will be with us when squawk box comes right back. The future belongs to the fast. And to help you accelerate, weve created a new company. One totally focused on whats next for your business. The True Partnership where people,technology and ideas push everyone forward. Accelerating innovation. Accelerating transformation. Accelerating next. Hewlett packard enterprise. Break news at this hour. Reports that ten attackers have taken 170 people hostage at a luxury hotel in mali. This is taking place in the countrys capital. Well continue to follow this developing story. But again 170 hostages taken in the capitol of mali. President ial candidate jeb bush urged the Obama Administration to be aggressive in its approach to fighting isis. Governor bush assisting that boots on the ground in syria are necessary to win the wa

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