Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20160317 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box March 17, 2016

The nasdaq is off by 18. This comes after both the s p and dow closed at their highest levels of the year after yesterdays fed meeting. That fed meeting along with the News Conference with fed chair janet yellen, were going to be talking more about her message. In the meantime, take a look at wti. It is up by just over 2 to 39. 28 a barrel. Getting closer to the 40 level. Also, if you take a look at the currencies, the dollar is down against the euro, which is all the way up at 1. 1308. The yen is trading at 111. 36. Dovish Federal Reserve keeping Interest Rates unchanged, suggesting it will be very cautious about future rate hikes. A pretty upbeat assessment of the economy. Yellen had this to say at the News Conference. You have seen a shift this time in most participants assessments of the appropriate path for policy. As i tried to indicate, i think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for Global Growth, for growth in the Global Economy outside the United States and for some tightening in Credit Conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. Those changes in financial conditions and in the path of the Global Economy have induced changes in the assessment of individual participants. Yellen didnt rule out the chance of future rate hikes. She underscored that fed officials have forecast two rate rises this year. Thats down from four, and then said every meeting is live, joe. I found it hard to listen to that. That wasnt that long. I cant imagine a couple hours. Kind of monotone. Thats why i do it. Its part of the profession, joe. Part of my trade is staying focused. Im having trouble listening to you, actually. Maybe its just from coming back. Youve been traveling. This is something that is occurring to me here. Remember we went from zero possibility to 100 because of some really strong numbers . The fed always seems to be about a month behind things. Did they not see the latest strong numbers that came about . The rest of the world is easing, and they dont want to diverge. Weve been so worried about what would happen as the dollar, you know, surged as we went the opposite way of the rest of the world, and the euro is back to 113. I got totally hosed on the british pound, which was at 139. Now its back to 143. This whole thing is about you and what you paid over in london. Lets be clear. Its not, but the dollar has done nothing to go down recently. I just think when she says global weakness, she just needs to keep saying that because its not whats happening here that theyre responding to. Its whats happening in the rest of the world. I dont know if thats one of their mandates. Is that their mandate . Your idea that theyre a month behind, right. So the globe has come off the boil in the sense the market is concerned about it. One of the things i expected going into this meeting was for them to down play global concerns. Instead, they upgraded their worries about it. They definitely surprised the markets with a more dovish outlook. I just think they have a dovish bias. It just keeps coming out. Janet yellen herself said yesterday that they would rather be cautious about this and avoid pushing potentially bringing another recession about. Becky, think about what you just said relative to the guidance or what the idea was beforehand. Were going to move and go earlier. Now theyre willing to risk a little more inflation. When they said the risks were declining, how are the risks declining and yet youre taking two potential rate hikes off the table . If things are looking better, then why are you bringing down the number of rate increases . I guess the technical term is and this one will put joe to sleep the right rate for where they want and need growth to be, they now judge to be lower than they previously did. Let me add one thing. Maybe the fed has struck the right done in the following way, if it indeed wants to hike rates. When you make the big shift they did remember, nine years, no hike, then they finally hike. You have four rate hikes on the table. I think the market may have judged that as too aggressive. Now theyve hiked and have two rate hikes on the table. It may be something they can get away with and eventually get where they need to be, which is to a higher rate place but do so in a more gradual way and have the market along with it, with the risk being a little more inflation and less response from the fed. Makes sense. Well talk valeant in a second. That was something to belold. Lets look at other stocks to watch. Fedexs third quarter, the profit fell 19 due to legal costs and acquisitionings. Revenue rose. The results beat forecasts. The company also raised its fullyear profit outlook. Also, mckesson is cutting 1600 jobs, thats 4 of its work force. That comes as the u. S. Drug distributor is slashing costs after it lost some key customers. Theyre offering severance and outplacement benefits for those workers. And glaxosmithkline says the ceo andrew witty will retire in march of next year after roughly ten years leading the company. Glaxo says it will begin a formal search for a successor and will look for internal and external candidates. Drove right by headquarters yesterday over in london. You didnt get over to the beautiful no, we were only there for three or four days. Beautiful arena. I had never been that far down where all the banks are, all the big headquarters. I saw it from the eye. I skipped the eye this year. I did. Im jerry seinfeld. Ive been on the eye before, and i had to wait while everybody else went on it this year. But ive been on it. Ive done it. Ive been uncomfortable once. You get to a certain age, steve, like seinfeld said, its not a bucket list anymore. You change the b. Im not going up there. Im not coming off that thing with my back all sweaty. I hear you. Its when youre on the very top and they stop the stupid thing. Or it seems like its stopped. I kind of like that. You did . Yeah. Its exciting. Its exciting because you dont know if youre going to live. You can just see really well. Its cool. All right. Lets talk about valeant shares. As joe mentioned, more pain for the company. The shares getting crushed this week after the company said it would not meet a deadline for filing its annual Financial Statements with the s. E. C. That puts it in danger of defaulting on a 30 billion debt load. Now reuters is reporting that valeant creditors are beginning to demand new terms that could further pressure the drug makers business model. The stock is trading at 34. That was a decline of about 50 just two days ago in trading. The bonds had held up relatively well. They were only down by about 7 . Talking to people, theyre saying even with an 11 yield, thats still something theyre not willing to dip their toes into at this point. Frightening. It was a 250 stock. When a guy sees what was his name . You see something the ceo . Hes back. I know hes back. The short seller we reported on. Yes. Said, look, this is a huge rollup essentially. Then you see it go to 35. Goes down 50 in one day. You dont want to use the, e word, the enron word, but it looks shaky. The problem with earnings the other day, theyre saying even weeks later, these are preliminary numbers, they wont sign off on it. The numbers are still huge that theyre supposedly earning. If you believe the lowered earnings per share numbers now, if you believe those, the stock is trading at a multiple of like four or something. But thats what makes you think, what do you really know about it at all . Now we know it was kind of like a i dont know. They bought a lot of drugs. I knew they were doing acquisitions and rollups. I didnt realize it was a shkreli type, buy a bunch of cheap things you know nobody else has. I still dont think id put it in the same place as shkreli. Not directly, but a lot of acquisitions made since in terms of buying something that wasnt prized as high as you can price it. Those price increases they thought they were going to get are getting rolled back. Thats one of the reasons theyre cutting forecasts, yeah. Speaking of valeant, we should tell you about bill ackmans pershing square. Because of its stake in valeant, it lost about 800 million on the drop in those shares this week. The battered hedge fund telling investors last night it sold 20 million shares of snack maker mondelez. That takes its stake down to 5. 6 from 7. 5 . In a short letter to investors, ackman says they have no plans to sell other investments and has what hes calling substantial uninvested cash. Pershing square has one of the worst performances in the Hedge Fund Industry this year. Check out these numbers. Down 26 so far in 2016. Its off 47 from the funds 2015 high. That was just seven months ago. They dont like mondelez anymore. They made the point. Now we have a lot of uninvested cash. They said nice things about mondelez. They said they think those shares have gains to come. I dont know enough about it. Can you take your money out now if you want . Andrew knows more about it. He said theres a lot of committed capital that cant come out. Something like 6 billion. I dont know whether they need the mondelez cash for people that are bailing. Unless youre really looking to i mean, maybe theyre looking for the cash so they can find some other investments to boost their performance. You wore green so you could hide from me. Im irish. No, i know. But were sharing. Were sharing. He said he wanted to borrow something. I forgot. My actual question is, wheres andrew today . Is he sleeping something off today because of st. Patricks day . Is he a big st. Patricks day drinker . I dont think so. Andrew always has some type of career thing. Other than this. Hes on assignment today. Maybe in new orleans. I could be wrong. Somewhere trying to get ahead. Hes at tulane university. Drinking. Hes a wild man. Crazy party guy. The New York Post reports an investor has taken a stake in office depot under the belief that a deal involving amazon would allow the staples merger to clear regulatory hurdles. The article cites recent speculation surrounding amazon looking to expand amazon business with a source saying the company has weighed a bid for wb mason. Chipotle is giving away as many as 9 million burritos in its effort to win back customers after food safety issues dented sales. The chain plans to send 21 million free food coupons, expecting a quarter to be redeemed. The total is more than 62 million. Their sales for the last month were down 25 . Same store sales. You say chipotle right now. What was the latest . Did anything come from that . It was employees who potentially had norovirus. I had not heard any complaints. They had them over in london. Nothings happened over there. Well, its been weird. Its like regional sourcing. Yeah, they do regional sourcing over there too, im sure. You would think maybe the same thingsing happen but havent at this point. Lets talk about the fed, slamming the brakes on rate hikes. Readjusting its forecasted number for hikes this year to just two from four. And choosing caution over aggression. But is the central bank being stubborn about rates . Joining us now is the chief Investment Officer of wealth enhancement group. Here on set with us is the global head of equity strategy at jpmorgan private bank. Steve, what the fed did yesterday, does this tell you that this is a better time to be in equities because rates will be lower for longer . I think long term its constructive. We have seen a rally back about 12 from the lows. Were very close to our year price target for the s p 500. Were recommending clients sell some of their exposure, add some protection, think about looking at dividend strategies if the fed is going to be slower than expected. I think dividends can still work today. Also looking outside the u. S. When you talk about buying protection, what do you mean . Adding some shortterm puts. So looking to play the market down maybe 5 , 6 from here. Listen, we dont think theres a recession happening in the u. S. Thats been our call all year. Weve actually been quite aggressively buying the dip throughout january and february. We also have to consider the markets rally back. The multiple 16. 5 times earnings. So you think its fairly priced. And theres enough things to be concerned about. Fourth quarter earnings will look tough. We have volatility in oil. You have u. S. Elections. You still have negative Interest Rates out of europe and japan. Jim, how about you . What do you think of stocks with this latest news from the Federal Reserve . Well, we think the Federal Reserve basically met market expectations. By taking two Interest Rate hikes off the table for the rest of the year, basically it relieves a little bit of the markets panic about what might happen with rates. That said, we think u. S. Equities look relatively fairly priced. We still think that value looks attractive given the underperformance, longterm financials, the continued rally in energy, and also were really an industrial recession globally. If you look at inventory buildup, if you look at manufacturing generally, we think theres an opportunity to make money and value because of manufacturing. If question look globally, we think that emerging markets in particular, as well as International Developed markets, europe and japan, look more attractive than the u. S. The story doesnt get much worse than it is right now. Generally thats a good time to buy. If you look at valuations, valuations are very similar to where they were back in 2002, 2003. After that period of time, you saw a rally of between 400 and 600 depending on the market. Were not saying emerging markets are going to be up 4 purks to 600 in the next few years, but we think on a relative valuation basis, they look attractive. How does the market rally, especially the fixed income market, if jim is right and the fed gist gives the market what it wanted and meets expectations . If you look at the ten year at 2 00, it was trading 1. 99. It drops down to 1. 91. Now its 1. 86. I think thats part of what im concerned about, that the market now seems very happy that the fed has basically signaled that its in no hurry. When we get to june, which is our best case scenario, there could be some more volatility. Especially if the earnings picture isnt there. Youre going to see very negative Earnings Growth rates. Youre going to see more energy in the world sector. While youre set up for a nice recovery in the second half of this year and in 2017, were not without volatility on the horizon. Jim, would you agree with that assessment . If you are looking at earnings or a pe of 16. 5 times, thats when the earnings really become much more important. Yeah, we agree. Its about fundamentals and the equity markets. We have to start to see Revenue Growth. Weve basically seen relatively unimpressive Revenue Growth since the recover i ri began in 2009. That Revenue Growth is the only way youre going to end up with Earnings Growth. What people really arent talking about is inflation. Weve got unemployment in this country at 4. 9 . Were starting to see Commodity Prices pick up. Were going to get wage push inflation at some point. Here in minneapolis, unemployment is at 1. 5 for College Educated workers. So if you really look at the part of the labor force thats the most expensive and the most productive, wages are going up. Those wage increases are going to put pressure on businesses and profits. Ultimately put pressure on the fed to increase Interest Rates faster. So generally, i think the outlook for Earnings Growth in the country is somewhat problematic because we have rising input costs in the form of wages and commodities. As a result, i think that youre going to be somewhat disappointed by earnings really throughout the year. Jim and steve, thank you both for coming in. Good to see you. Thanks for having us. Thank you. Joe, the guy you were thilg of, andrew. Coming up, did tuesdays primary results seal the fate of the Republican Party . What a clinton versus trump race could mean for the nation with another eight months left on the campaign trail. And does valeant Ceo Michael Pearson have enough time to turn the drug maker around . Thats coming up in the next half hour. First, this day in history. Need to hire fast . Go to ziprecruiter. Com and post your job to over one hundred of the webs leading job boards with a single click. Then simply select the best candidates from one easy to review list. And now you can use zip recruiter for free. Go to ziprecruiter. Com. Donald trump continuing his mega tuesday victory lap, but not all republicans are sharing in his excitement. No kidding. Joining us now to tell us what a clinton versus trump race could look like, tony fratto from Hamilton Place strategies. After Donald Trumps win, what he tweeted was essentially Hillary Clinton getting the win. So do you want how do you think cruz would fare against Hillary Clinton, tony . Well, look, if me just look at polls, you know, cruz is at least running somewhat even with secretary clinton. Thats at least a competitive race. Trump is not running very close at all. But i think the difficulty is what does it look like, whether its cruz, kasich, trump, after a Gop Convention and whats a contested Gop Convention. In the best of years when you have a unified gop, you know, republicans have an electoral disadvantage relative to the democratic candidate. Thats pretty clear. They start off with a pretty big lead. Thats when were unified. I dont see how were possibly unified coming out of the Republican National convention this time. Trump is not going to bring unity to the party. If its a contested convention and its someone else, thats not going to result in unity either. So a divided gop and a fairly unified democratic candidate, i actually dont think this is actually an easy or a hard ques

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