Polls. You can see that whats been doing not only here but overnight in asia. Lets look quick overnight in asia up see the nikkei up about 1 . Hang sepg up about a third of a percent. The trading in european equities right now where the polls are open in the uk. You can see the dax, the cac up about 2 . The fooths up about 1. 5. Italy up about 2. 3 and spain, the ibex about 1. 7 . Currency is where this is playing out. The undecideds. If you are undecided. The brexit people are like fantically brexit. The ones that are brexit they have been brexit all along. And if you are not decided yet you are not fantically brexit so you are a stay. Atically brexit so you are a stay. What i worry about is worried the markets price caught all this is now an asymmetric risk at this point. 148 top pound. Take look at the currency boards again. Sterling round it up. 148. 54. Crude oil which the markets have been playing so much attention to. 49. 84. Across the pond now. The top story and polls are now open in the uk for that referendum on whether to leave or stay in the European Union. And for our u. S. Audience here are key times to watch. Polls close at 5 00 eastern and at 8 00 were expecting the First Official returns and estimated about half of the votes will be counted by 10 00 or 11 00 p. M. Eastern time. So keep it locked here on cnbc all day today and tomorrow for up to the minute coverage on the uk referendum. In the meantime we want to get across the pond and start with wilfred frost in london this morning. Wilfred. Good morning. Yes indeed it is polling day. All of those comments that weve been arguing over really go out the window. It comes down to the voters and how they decide. You just ran through some of the crucial times. Well start to get as you said those early results at about 12 30 tonight in london, 7 30 p. M. In new york. And we should have the final result by about 3 00 a. M. Friday morning new york time, about 8 00 a. M. Here. Which is also when london equity markets ipo up. The latest Financial Times poll, a two point lead for remain. Sterling as you said hitting a high very recently. The last 20 minutes weve seen markets taken extra step up. That is on speculation that one remaining poll due out my nin. We dont have that data quite yet. Lets have a look at some of these front majors this morning here in london. The daily mirror saying dont take a leap into the dark. Meanwhile the sun saying this could be independence day. Two very clear different views and again we mentioned yesterday. Do you go with the heart and back exit or with the head and back remain . A lot of people deciding themselves today and yesterday i did catch up with one person whos heritage Everyone Wants to know about. Sir nicholassomes. The grandson of sir Winston Churchill. Sir nicholas a conservative party mp, his grandson i asked how he thought his grandfather would have voted if he was around today. He 51 years dead this year. And if you were to put him here today does anyone really believe that in all that time with all his experience tham looking out over a very unstable fragile uncertain world he would really think there was a good idea for britain to cut itself loose from the continent which he does so often have to ride to the rescue. So there is the view of sir Nicholas Soames about how his grandfather Winston Churchill might vote. Ill bring it back flow to what to expect today. 46. 5 Million People are eligible to vote in this election. Last years uk general election turnout was 66 . Turnout will be a huge factor. The weather has been poor overnight. Flooding in southern england. Iss cleared up here now in london. Scotland is expected to be very heavy rain this afternoon. Turnout is going to be key of those 46 Million People. It is all to play for still in london. Okay. Wilfred. We appreciate it. Were going to check back with you of course throughout the program and throughout the day. You are going to be with us back and forth. So thanks. What do you think . U, 2,000 is not 48 million. But i dont know. I think the question with the polls in the uk and here is how accurately do they measure . Were not really using polls as much as. The past. Betting market. And the stock market. And again who plays the betting market who plays the stock market . It is a much more elite oriented group of people who out yesterday that the betting polls there are there, if you look at the if you break it down on the bets placed for or against, leave or stay, the leave camp wins. It is just an out size bets have been placed by a few investors who are betting on the remain. It is a different way of looking at things too. It is not like a big game either where georgetown or villanova. And this is different. There is actual data. I dont know. Especially with the pound. 148. If it goes to 132 from 142 do 132 is not so bad. I any there is a loot mony more money that ride on that. Other things happening. You might not think there are but there is a new ipo heading for wall street. Tech firm twilio. Were running out of words to name companies. Twilio priced at 15 a share. Just above its targeted range. This Company Provides phone and Text Message Services to app developers. It will trade under the ticker twlo on the new york stock exchange. In washington they are calling it chaos. They werent in the their chairs. They were on the floor and singing we shall overcome but different words. It was we shall eventually pass a bill or something. And demand on gun control legislation. Representatives from both sides of the aisle were shouting at each other as the democrats refused to let republicans resume regular business. And paul ryan called in a publicist stunt. And adjourned the chamber until after the fourth of july and democrats continued to sit in even after the session was adjourned insists we get tougher on the center of isis activity over in the middle east i think is what they are demanding. Are we not . I didnt hear that. Oh that is not oh. Well get an update from john harwood. One piece of legislation that made it through the session, a 1. 1 billion dollar funding bill to fight the zika virus. Republican s passed the bill. Democrats have protested the 750 million in budget cuts used to fund the bill. It faces a tougher battle in the senate. Between the senate and house i would like to see them get this settled. Its been months they have been wrappingal other there. The olympics. It is always something. Salt lake city and terrorism. And ill bet you once it starts that content is so it is just. It isnt about the olympics those it is about [ inaudible ]. Rory mcilroy is not going. So and so is not going. You know, but im still saying i think people are gonna. Popularity is still going to be there we think. Still going to be there we the exactly. While investors await the outcome of todays vote in the uk. In the u. S. , weekly jobless claims out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. At 10 00 a. M. You can look for may new home sales. Forecasts have slumped nearly9 9 last month. And dallas fed president rob caplan is speaking in new york about Economic Conditions and the role of economic policy. And were joined by also in london we have. The markets at this point look like they are expecting that stay vote to come. What happens if they dont get it . Ive long thought they will choose to remain at the end of the day. That they will follow the advice of the most famous playwright and rather bare those ills they have then rather fly to ers they kn not off. Whoa. Indeed. I think they will choose to remain. If they dont i think no one knows exactly what will happen and it will start a long process which is hard to predict how long it will be and the outcome. I think they will choose o remain. Ed. Are markets priced correctly if they choose to stay . Or would there be even more upside potential . If the vote goes more than 1 or 2 in the favor of the stay camp. As soon as it is over they will focus on fundamentals and i think there is mixed picture. If you look at big German Companies for example they have a dividend yield two or three times what it costs them to issue debt. Almost appears to be an arbitrage opportunity. At the same time there is weak growth still. In the United States we did get a disappointing labor report last time around. I think we are going to work higher over time but dont think there is going to be a large positive reaction as a result of remain vote if they were to occur. We have seen volatility over the last week or two. As people really tried to figure what was going to happen. Do you think this volatility has lot more room to run . Good morning. As the very nervous day in london. Whatever happens there slb some movement in price. Even though the market is pricing for a remain. They are still pricing in some possibility, some probability, maybe it is only 20 of a brexit. And the relief when that possibility removes will improve or will at least call people to take off their hedges and move prices. Kwhand of hedges ha s have y seen . How heavily has this been hedged . The currency has very much become the battle ground. And what we look at there to get a sense is volatility measure there is the options market. And there we have seen actually its come down a bit but last week we were seeing levels of volatility expected in the british pound that would mirror what we saw around the time of lehmans clasmts if there is a vote for leave we can expect considerable larger swings. If there isnt the there still will be a little relief rally. And back to fundamentals. If you look at the United States market fundamentally you take out the brexit but still have the central bank being probably the biggest weight thats getting thrown around in the market at this point. How do you look at fundamentals with the central bank so involved . Well it seems pretty clear that the central bank is either because of their own will not going to be very gresz aift raising rates. Maybe one more time this year but also the normal rate of interest is very low. Think think were going to start to see earnings become a more positive story. Weve been in a two year earnings slump. Sequentially thats compared to the first quarter. The Second Quarter is going to be up 7 or 8 in earnings i think. And the second half of the year well finally get year over year Earnings Growth. If that is correct the better earnings story will provide a little fuel to drive prices somewhat higher in the second half. If you are looking are for 5, 6, Earnings Growth where are we valued right now . Valuations are difficult because were really in a new world with Interest Rates at zero. I think well probably get returns in the mid single digits. I think that is more or less what were looking for is continued returns and a kind of 57 range. Doesnt sound bad given the year weve seen to this point. I think that is exactly right so politics and the market are smar. Cant be somewhere with nobody. So where do you put your money . And i think 6 return out of stocks doesnt look too bad considering zero in you are why savings account. Are you telling people u. S. Stocks is the place to be right how to. Ive been overweight in u. S. Stocks for a while relative to the rest of the world by about 510 or so. I wouldnt be surprised if we end up shift hag in the future. Valuation base the u. S. Has a two poult multiple point premium over efa. At some point i wouldnt be going where . To the european stocks if the vote goes the way you expect it to today is this. Yeah. Into europe and potentially emerging markets which have their own difficults have bounced a bit this year but underperformed now for several years so it is a question of whether the macro stuff dies down so the fundamentals valuation and Earnings Growth start to become more prominent you could start to see money flow back that way. What emerging markets do you actually like . Some have been so tumultuous and some with very good reason. Look at brazil. Would you jump in there. I tend to look at broad Asset Classes and not so much individual countries. I think indonesia looks interesting. Down the list each country looks different. India is promising in some ways but just lost the central banker and valuations are cut so each has a different quirk to the story. I think the playing if broad asset class. Like mining stocks or something . Just emerging markets as an asset class as opposed to picking individual countries or sectors within them. And thank you for being here. And tim thank you for joining us today. Thank you. Coming up when we return. Democrats staging a sitin protest in the house of representatives calling for a vote on gun control legislation. Weve got john harwood going to be with us. And details next. Plus a run down of the latest head lines from the campaign trail ence the thrill of the lexus gs f sport. Because the ultimate expression of power, is control. This is the pursuit of perfection. Incr. Think it wouldotection in a pwork, but it does. Dnt. Its called always discreet for bladder leaks, the super. Absorbent core turns liquid to gel. I know im wearing it but no one else will. Always discreet for bladder leaks. Every year, the amount of data your enterprise uses goes up. Smart devices are up. Cloud is up. Analytics is up. Seems like everything is up except your budget. Introducing comcast Business Enterprise solutions. With a different kind of network that delivers the bandwidth you need without the high cost. Because you cant build the business of tomorrow on the network of yesterday. Democrats staging a sitin in congress in effort to force a vote on gun control. John harwood joins was more on that story. And i dont know how much time you want to spend on that john. But there was a couple of events yesterday. A donald trump speech and then a Hillary Clinton rebuttal to the speech that probably i dont know. Just depends which newspaper you look at. But that was a pretty interesting interplay between the two candidates i think. You have a lot of action in politics yesterday joe as you elu alluded to. Democrats decided to dramatize things yesterday with a sitin on the house floor led by john lewis, the former civil rights leader who represents georgia in congress. They commandeered the house floor. Paul ryan, the speaker tried to lose the cspan cameras that normally broadcast house action. The democrats protesting used periscope via twitter to broadcast and the tv networks picked it u. It was a chaotic scene as the house was trying to get through a bill to fund the zika virus. Lets take look at the action on tloor. Gentlemen from texas with recognition. I send to the desk for the committee on rules for filing under the rule. Resolution provided for consideration of the bill hr 4768. We have a motion at the desk. Clerk are report the motion. Dont see that every day on the house floor and finally republicans had a enough of it and adjourned two days early in the middle of the night after passing that zika bill, adjourned early for the fourth of july. Now separately in the president ial race you had donald trump finally sponresponding to two big round house punches Hillary Clinton has taken. First on National Security and then on the economy. Donald trump went after Hillary Clinton saying hes the one who can change washington because hes an outsider and she cant because shes been corrupted by the system. Here is donald trump. The other candidate in this race has spent her entire life making money for special interests. And i will tell you shes made plenty of money for them. And shes been taking plenty of money out for herself. Hillary clinton has perfected the politics of personal profit and even theft. Theft, that is a pretty strong charge. Hillary clinton later said donald trump was going after her personally because he cant compete with her on the issues. To be continued, joe. Do you think . Yeah i think so. What month . St . Well get through this brexit thing, john and then well see. And then well see. Keep me updated on that it is like 130some days. As every day passes we can mention what the actual number is. I think it is 130something. Do you know . We did joe have a much more sedate donald trump in the wake of nice haircut too john. Him or me . Your hair always looks nice. Him looked a little neater than it has. Boris johnson on the other hand. I love this. Did you see this . It looks like gary busey versus colin firth. Doesnt it . I love those two guys. That is gary busey. Did you see . That would match the mug shot. It looks kind of like you. People say gary busey kind of looks like me. Kind of true. Which means gary busey a lot better than looking then most people think. John thanks. Are you going to be back with us this morning . Or it is all brexit all the time . Im not sure. Depends if im invited. I dont know. Well see. Im gonna put in a good word for you. See ya. When we come back the future of yahoo. A Company Preparing to sell its core internet biz. 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