Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20160701 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box July 1, 2016

Yesterday the s p turned positive for the month of june in the last minute of trading. Check it out, the s p sectors are positive year to date. If you take a look at all of them, most of them are positive. The tell kom leading the way. The worst part is the financials. Take a look at the treasury. Still sitting there. Yesterday we saw it at 11. 5. Today 1. 4. People are looking at this as a safe haven. Tell you whats happening overnight in asia. While some of you have been sleeping, things do look up there. Margely up. I dont want to get too excited about it. Lets swing over to European Equity futures. These are actually happening live as we speak. Dax, cac, ftse 100 up. Again. Marginal picture. Italy margely down. Currencies real quick. Im curious, okay. No, i know. Just stable. Im thinking when do you plan the trip . I think a trip should be in order . He had gotten from hilton saying 30 off sell there. Already sending off ems. 30 trips to london simply because of the devaluation factor. Offsetting concerns. Finally for those of you who are taking a threeday weekend and plan on filling up or buying a barrel at a time. Crude 48. 18 right now. There was a time i was selling barrels and buying cattle. Remember. There was also a time you were considering barrels. And storing them. Were right in the middle. Youre going to stay. Youre going to stay close to home. Im staying home. Yes. Then real quick on this first day of the new quarter, its the economical der. Today is the economical d. Auto sales reported throughout the morning. In london today to speak about u. S. Economy. Do you feel bad for the financials when you were talking about that . The banks . Never going to happen. Never going to raise rates. Never be able to do what theyre supposed to do. I felt bad in the last week. It was time. Remember, its a life meeting in june. It is, its live in july. Dead, dead, june, dead, july, dead. September dead. A lot of people wanted to see. Dead, dead, dead, dead. Even the people who wanted to seal them raise a long time ago think they missed their window. Those poor guys trying to you know, you see the german, its getting more negative, the tenure. What is it today. I dont know. I looked at japan and its still not guil not as bad as japan. Nice segue then to a guy who has to say its dead, i guess. Well see what he says at 10 a. M. Eastern time. Cnbc exclusive where i assume hes just going to have to say take the summer off. I think he would have done it a couple of years ago. He would have. Wouldnt have been a good idea. Among our top corporate stories in corporate news. U. S. Safety regulators opening an investigation into tesla model. A driver was killed using the auto pilot mode. The crash occurred in Francisco Lindor florida. Neither the driver nor the auto pilot system noticed the white side of the truck against the bright sky so nobody applied the brakes. The company says this is the first known fatality in which the auto pilot feature was activated. You think that this is earth shattering. You get google with the auto driving, you get tesla. Brings up two problems. First of all the problems with the technology being able to actually see hazard that are in the road, second of all, there are some indications that the passenger had a movie playing in the Center Console. This stuff is not supposed to be self driving without the passengers playing attention, but a lot of drives dont use this auto drive correctly. Its still a future. They say theres an informed consent saying you neck ni ing people arent supposed to be texting in cars either. I told you on my long trip, i used Cruise Control. My hip pointer was bothering me. You get stiff and there are times where you kind of lulled and just like, holy cow. Slow down. Thats not steering, but i can just imagine if im like this and your accelerating and youre moving around youre not sure its going to turn here comes a truck am i going to turn. Its going to be disconcerting. I hope i can take over from siri. The warning is youre not supposed to be taking your hands off the wheel at all. Its a transition problem from now until the time when you actually theres going to be a time when they dont want you to touch it. Yes, but right now the technology is not good enough and in is the example. Regulation. There you go. There are a lot of these cars driving on the roads. People dont Pay Attention to that fact. This is going to bring them down. A lot of them have just come out with features and there hasnt been a a lot of discussion on it. It is different and people are treating it different. You need to get a regular driving car before you can weigh in on this stuff. He drives. Zip cars. Were in driving school. Blake. Yes. Shes already there. Yes, and when you go in these cars lasted everywhere, student driver, everybody going by cuts them off and theyre just so mean to the people. Youre rethinking the way you drive now arent you as a result. It wouldnt have been me doing that. My 16yearold cousin got her license yesterday. In ohio. Its 17 here. Darn good law. Apple is reportedly in early talks to buy title. If tim co this is oined by jaz the rapper. Both companies are declining comment. Apple music has 15 million paid subscribers while tidal had 3 million. Gave artists and bands small stakes in it. Nike has named tim cook as the lead independent director on the board. Nike founder phil niegtd retires. Part of the plan mark parker is taking on the added title of chairman. We look forward though tho to ever year. Its the fairwork Safety Commission on the National Mall in washington. The demo warns consumers not to be victims of fireworks mishaps. In eaches scenarios that simulate real life injuries. On average of 230 people go to the emergency room every day surrounding the fourth of july holiday. You can find better videos on youtube. And even on twitter, my favorite handle now is the darwin awards. Check that out. No evolution. Hey, watch me. Right and if someone died right in your family right after saying hey, watch this. You know youre something. In the meantime, lets get over to london. Were going to talk about july 4 and Independence Day. The race heating up if the next prime minster of the uk. Wilfred frostoins us. Good morning. Yes, for all of the puns on words weve had around brexit over the last couple of weeks, this is my favorite. On the front page of the sun toot. Brex cuted with a big picture of Boris Johnson saying gove nights boris and his career is wrecked. For a red top tabloid it says fall out pages 211 showing the level of coverage this political battle is getting here. I also want to highlight the front page of the daily mail. This is a leave paper. Its a big conservative paper and it is backing theresa may for the leadership. She is now the overwhelming favorite. Seen as a safe pair of hands. All of the candidates, stefphen crabb seize as the outsider. Gove the leave person on the twoperson ballot with may. Almost certainly going to be on the ballot herself. She has been tough on immigration in the past and that was seen as having a good chance to win it. I just want to show you the ftse 100 because we did hit a tenmonth high yesterday. This of course in part because its International Heavy and weve seen the pound fall sharply so exporting names benefit, but this market the ftse 100 much like the u. S. Markets seeming to rally a significant amount since the initial falls after brexit. Some people suggesting thats because investors around the world are now thinking a brexit might not happen. We spoke yesterday how theresa may says brexit means brexit. Gove and earlier i spoke to tina, the chief political strategist at city group and asked her about that issue. Have markets started to rally too much and do they expect brexit wont happen and is that possibly a mistake. Thats very important. Its a very important disconnect with markets. We just went through the datd ta and the rally and how things recovered. A lot of investors think brexit wont happen. Its true its a process and not an event, but theresa may has been very clear, no second referendum and she will trigger article 50. Of course the rally we have seen all sorts of different aspects highlighted. Brexit as an issue rumbles on, guys. All right. Wilfred. Very frustrating for me, guys, because remember i said were going to test the counter factual. We got back 90 nothing happened, but now we may not have tested the counter factual because they may not do it. It may not be we looked into the abyss. It might not happen. The people who say it might not ever happen is the people who say its never going to ever happen. Theres no way to test a counter factual. Still clinging to the viewpoint they had. Cant let it go. I need a vacation. You reminds me of someone else when you talk. I need a vacation. You just got back. It wasnt long enough. It was a day. Its not a vacation. I needed a self driving car. Anyway, lets talk about whats ahead in in the seconds half for the market. Joining us now, eric. I would go with newtsen. He is head of Investment Strategy at proshare. Both of you gentleman, and eric, ill ask you first, was the initial whatever it was, whatever we lost, 900 points, was that the wrong move or is the snap back the wrong move . Whats the right move . Our take was that initial reaction was overdone. There was certainly going to be selling pressure when that surprise vote came through because you had to price in now this notion of kind of antiglobalization hitting britain, europe, u. S. , et cetera, but our view is brexit was not a lehman moment. It wasnt going to lead to immediately structuraldy stress. There was an overshoot. We think there are opportunities to buy in europe right now. By the time theres an election like this where you see the nationalism resurface, its been percolating and everybody has seen it percolating for a couple of years already. Thats almost like the lagging. When it finally hears the evidence it was stronger than people thought. Globalization is tough on individual economies. Thats right. There is a tail risk this does cascade into something that leads to decline in global trade. Another few dominos have to fall over in that. You already see spain the elect r electorate backed off. Constitutionally she cant they cant call a referendum. Necessarily in this country from a vibrant european economy anyway. So does it really that. What brexit just did is reminded us of two key drivers of the market environment. Number one, very low Interest Rates. Number two, weak Economic Growth. The first part of that, low Interest Rates do support the equity markets. You dont need much earning growth to get a 20 pe. Rates that low. Remember weve been in an earnings recession. We havent had Earnings Growth in four quarters so the companies that have been able to deliver will be fine. Weve seen that in the ftse performance and stocks in the u. S. That have been able to generate Earnings Growth. Do you think domestic equities are a steal right now or at least not as overvalued as they were. Our view is that u. S. Equities are fully valued and as he points out, if you can generate any kind of Earnings Growth, you can justify higher pe. We havent seen Earnings Growth. We want to see manifestation of that Earnings Growth before we put money in the u. S. Stock market. Were around neutral in the u. S. Stocks and waiting for that evidence of Earnings Growth because from here, were not going to rely on pe expansion. Weve been turning around for like 18 months. Weve gone nowhere and people said once we get past brexit, maybe we can go higher. They were assuming brexit wasnt going to happen. Just because its out of the way, i dont think its out of the question to say we do go to new highs even with brexit happening. It is back to the fundamentals. Were very material in earning season. Looks slightly better. The overhang from the Energy Sector is going to be better. The dollar ask is an issue. The companies have delivered consistent Dividend Growth and translate to earning growth. If you take the first 50 companies in the s p 500 that have delivered consistent growth, they generated 2. 4 Earnings Growth and outperformed. I dont know what happened in europe, but does the risk regard at this point favor taking a shot over there now that things have come down . Look, every country wants a devaluation and the uk just got it. If you look at the price to book in ftse 100 is a 35 discount to the u. S. Theres a chance for people who are willing to take volatility. You can almost be selective and look at the strong countries in europe that have been pulling the weight of the countries that arent so strong and if there is some sort of resolution or getting tougher on those countries, you might be able to buy the dax or Something Like that. European strox are trading at 13 times versus 17 times in the u. S. And theyre being backed by a tidal wave of monetary stimulus. They havent seen profit recovery that weve seen in the u. S. Were at secular highs and vnts seenl Profit Growth for the last 12, 18 months. All right. Gentlemen, thank you. Who would have thought its been a week. You fell asleep, now were 60 points. Nothing. Okay. Well, tell me if youre going to wake up and think something about this, coming up richard wolf saying the first days of a Trump Presidency would feel like a brexit. Which wasnt so bad. Well see. Well see. Hes going to join us to explain. Ok team, what if 30,000 people download the new app . Were good. Okay. What if a Million People download the new app . Were good. Five million . Good. We scale on demand. Hybrid infrastructure, boom. Ok. What if 30 Million People download the app . Were not good. Were total heroes. Scale on demand with the Number One Company in cloud infrastructure. Hewlett packard enterprise. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Welcome back everybody. The reaction to the brexit is what the first few days of the presidency of donald trump would look like according to the guardian. A lot of people have drawn parallels and what that might mean for donald trump, that the establishment is wrong, that the polls have been wrong and donald trump might get elected. You take that comparison a bit further. I do. I think theres a chaos that followed from brexit which may have some rebalancinrebalancing instability weve seen there i think foreshadows what donald trump is doing in terms of saying look, im going to blow up is system. Trade, i dont care what the establishment says about Financial Markets. This is the right thing to do. The collapse we saw in currency markets, the shock to the stock market, their parallels to what were going to see here. It was a short lived stock market route though what weve seen as a bounce back, particularly those in the United States and those that weve been watching too. Currency still at a low. What weve seen in the stock market is the bank of england saying were going to come in and support this. Theres a rally on that. What do you think is the most problematic of the plat tomorrows youve heard from donald trump. You look at trade. Blowing up the trade system and saying yourg going to have after the riffs on chinese imports or when hes pushed on that saying it doesnt matter about default because im going to print the money. These are deeply. Thats been donald trump is not the first to say that. Im not talking by default because he didnt say that, but thats a great argument for the left to make, but people have always said that when you have the World Reserve currency that the default is de facto probably out of the question because you can print money. Donald trump is not the first person to say that. Normal people in the past have always said we can print money. Its not a big stretch. Its not a path to sustainability. How are you going to say. Theres checks and balances in a system. Its a great pitch for a president to say ive got my checks and balances over here so doesnt matter what im going to say because im going to renegotiate when it comes to financial crisis. Your point is depression, default on debt. Have you written a hype erp bollic piece of Hillary Clinton. Will every government if shes elected be a personal lust fund. Will every Government Employee be required to have a private email server so no data is ever collected or looked at again. These things are totally equivalent. Those are our choices. You can write hyper bollic pieces. Hes a clinton operative. I let him talk. He can say whatever he wants. Whats your angle . Whats my angle. You want me to compare the two candidates. What is it with trump that youve got hes got more primary votes than any republican in history. So all these youre just c contentious of the voters in this country. If you think Donald Trumps trade policies are supported by the people who come into the studio. Are they better or worse than the democrats. I can answer any of your questions if you give me a little time. Donald trumps position on trade is chamber or commerce or by Financial Markets i dont know youre listening to the people who come into the studio. I love the left loves the chamber of commerce. You can call me whatever you like, but i think if youre talking about sustainable Economic Growth free trade has been a boom to this world. Hillary clinton is against tpp. She used to say it was the gold standard. Ting center of the Democratic Party at this

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