Saw wire going to have the trump rally. Within what time frame . I think in the next couple of months. 45 is a number that 45 to 50 is the number the market likes. It does. Yesterday when oil was slumping, thats when the equity started. Its almost as if we get close to that three handle again and people start worrying. The market was just off oil. That was the key thing to watch. You put up a couple weeks of inventory build. Couple weeks of rigs coming back online. Was it supply. I thought it was trump so im confused. Reoccurring worries come back. Well see. 42. 79 touched the lowest level since april. Once it gets three handle again its hard for markets to make headway. What is the level which it stops becoming a positive for the consumer. Remember last time it should have been great at 27. All the banks now everybody can refinance their loans, Energy Companies arent going to go bankrupt. It brings up fears of we had a guy yesterday talking about the recovery long in the tooth. Every time you see oil, i think people even though we know its supply, people always extrapolate maybe theres demand problems. The brexit we have done nothing, but go up since brexit. Oil went below 45 and sort of derailed all the positive feelings. I dont know. Its weird. Couple of things were watching on the calendar today, housing and consumer data in focus along with a host of other Earnings Reports. Many are hitting before the bell. New home sells, that sits at ten. Boast are expected to confirm steady momentum building in the housing market. At 10 00 a. M. We get the consumer market. And the fed kicks off a twoday meeting today. The decision is due tomorrow. 3 m, caterpillar, lily, mcdonalds and verizon all report earnings before the opening bell today. After the close apple and twitter as if we needed more to work with. A couple programming notes, well have the ceo at 7 15 and caterpillar who will join squawk at 8 00 a. M. Eastern time. Certainly great voices to have joe, joe, on just the Global Economy and running a global business. Yes. Pharmaceutical is a little different, but caterpillar, get a good look at the globe and whats happening. Also, we have 500 in the s p. How many stocks in the s p 500. Its more. Its like. But its around 500. Thats why its called that. If were going to do all of them we have to mention ones likes Texas Instruments and those shares are actually rallying. Firm also offer add strong outlook on an increased in demand. The drug maker decided not to pursue approval of imfoe ma treatment of late stage study of this particular drug. Las vegas sanlds fell 30 as a decline in macaw hurt itself results. Bit of beer news. Ab inbev raises bid for sab miller. Inbev will now pay 45 pounds per share. Says it will review the revise ds offer. Also the Federal Reserve some enforcement against Goldman Sachs related to the leak of confidential information of one of its employees. Fed is considering taking action against a former Goldman Sachs executive who has access to the leaked material. It came from a former executive at Federal Reserve. Should we quickly do duh ponte earnings. Against the estimate were going with. Revenue 7. 06 billion that was a beat as well. Operatinginining eps for the fu. That was on the high end. They now expect negative currency impact for the full year to be about 15 Cents Per Share which all in is a pretty modest guide right there. Well dig through those numbers and get back to you. Currently premarket shares are unchanged. Well see whether it actually trades up like that. Day one of the Dnc Convention is in the books. John harwood joins us now with more from philadelphia. Were you on the floor for the gavel, john . No, i was in this booth for the gavel. In the booth for the gavel. Crazy start and i dont know. Nothing is shocking anymore in this political year, i guess. Joe, it was a fascinating start to the Democratic Convention. Clear expressionings of dissent. It didnt do that early in the day, but in the evening, democrats took three different approaches to try to bring their party together. First they tried a little bit of humor. Senator al franken, former saturday night caste member came on with comedian sara silverman, spoke to them drengtly. At one point when they were giving her a hard time, she chastised them. Take a listen. Can i just say to the bernie or bust people, youre being ridiculous. Reporter democrats tried two of the most powerful liberal icons that they have, Bernie Sanders himself was the cleanup speaker, but before Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, made the case against trump to set up sanders. Trump thinks he can win votes by fanning the flames of faear and hatred, by persuading you the real problem in america is your fellow americans,s people who dont look like your or talk like your our worship like you. Any objective observer will conclude that based on her ideas and her leadership, Hillary Clinton must become the next president of the United States. The emotional heart of the evening was the address by first Lady Michelle obama, which led off the 10 00 p. M. Hour. Michelle obama of course in the nonpartisan role of first lady did not have an overtly cast of the speech, but very political in a powerful way. Without mentioning trumps name she said the election is about setting an example for our children. In this election and every election is about who will have the power to shape our children for the next four or eight years of their lives. There is only one person who i trust with that responsibility, only one person who i believe is truly qualified to be president of the United States and that is our friend, Hillary Clinton. Reporter strong testimonial from the woman who of course along with her husband ran against Hillary Clinton eight years ago. Well see whether thats effective at tamping down some of the bernie or bust people that sar have a silver man was chastising. And tonight well here from bill clinton, hes been great at Democratic Conventions in the past. Four years ago he gave a strong economic argument that benefitted president obama. See if hes still got it tonight. I like the way you said that. A little comedy from al franken because im familiar with his work on saturday night live. It was very little. It was on an snl episode. I cant watch him without tom davis. I watched him back then. It was very little comedy as well. I think one of the weird things, john, and its true, my children grow up over the past eight years and it does matter who is in the white house. Theyre watching now a battle royal in one of the main parties in this country between socialism and capitalism as a form of economic as a form of an economic system. So that does make a different. Which side are you on . I think its very strange that were half of that Convention Center is pining for a self branded socialist. Well, its not half joe because Hillary Clinton won the nomination so she got more than 350. Yes we saw the ems though john and the super delegates so we know how she won. She won a majority of the pledge delegates too. Why you have some Bernie Sanders they adopted the locker up line. I know. Youve got democrats with the locker up line. Very dark. Very dark. Anyway, john, very dark. Were going to turn to our next guest right now. Democratic strategist, good morning to you. You saw what took place last night. I also imagine you might have seen the polls over nights. Cnn now projecting for the first time that donald trump is not just in the game, but could win this thing. Also nate silver out with his own new statistics saying the same. Given what could be a divide in the room last night, do you think theres going to be enough people coming out to support Hillary Clinton. Absolutely. When it comes down to the divide, i think it makes a good story, especially when in between the two conventions theres not a lot of real stories going on so the bad one kind of jumps into the void. Look, i was in the hall for the majority of the afternoon, and of the evening, what you were seeing was a vocal and, you know, visually powerful, but a slim minority. When it comes down to the folks who saw sara silver man so bluntly and honestly and brilliantly took the argument very forcefully. That was a small minority. Early on in the afternoon there were more kind of Bernie Sanders activists in there, but when you had Elizabeth Warren, and a true activist, a true activist with a real record behind her address the kr0ud crowd, when you had Michelle Obama. I wasnt there, but i was watching. I heard chants of we trusted you, past tense, when she came on the stage. Right. Which by the way is a ridiculous gesture because the movement the Bernie Sanders support really belongs to Elizabeth Warren in its reality so that was distressing to hear. However i was in the hall and the voices were scattered and cameras may have run towards them. That was no way even in the majority of bernie supporters. It was a small majority that represents no way what the mood and energy was in the room and the mood and energy of the party. I think made a lot of strides yesterday towards unity, something the republicans certainly did not manage to do after their convention. Which was a dumpster fire. Last week at the Republican Convention, the unifying theme was being against Hillary Clinton and the thought was going into the dnc that the democrats were going to be proclinton and not have to mention trump or not want to mention trump and his policies by name at all. Certainly we didnt see Michelle Obama mention trump, but the fact Hillary Clintons flame system eliciting boos from the crowd, are people going to have to start rethinking their messages going through this week. I dont think so. Again, if there is boos from it will crowd, in either party, theres always going to be a purity driven activist wing and that is m part of where energy comes from and where p ideas come from and thats fine. Again, tiny tiny minority that should not be con affiliated in any way. Everybody gets a convention bounce. That story is as old as politics. I do not see that as in any way sticking when americans, you know, see the contrast and the two and the choice they have to make. Every election is a choice between two people. 2013 donald trump and Hillary Clinton who as sara silver man said is the only person possibly overqualified to be president. I think that youre going to see a very, very definite clear win to Hillary Clinton, and i think were going to wait and see polls after both conventions and after the tim kaine roll out which went wonderfully. America didnt know tim kaine all that well and really fell in love with him. Hes going to be a great asset to the ticket Going Forward in a way that mike pence is not an asset and really, really reveals that the Trump Campaign knows that this is a with any shot at success is going be a play to the base, play to alter conservative white guys possible scenario for them. John, one of the things weve been talking about on the show for the past several weeks in relation to brexit and this campaign is about the establishment and the antiestablishment if you will. The seleintellectual and antiintellectual. Typically in the past you would have called that support. And you would have thought that was a good thing. In this new antiestablishment world that oftentimes is a bad thing. How is that playing out in this idea that Hillary Clinton is the establishment candidate. Whats interest sg that Hillary Clinton sort of rose to prominence, but being antiestablishment. You cant call the first woman partner in a southern law firm in the 70s exact establishment or someone who dedicated their life to the childrens defense fund. In the context of this in a world where everything is relative, shes about as establishment as they get. She is the establishment at this point in the game. Ill address your point in the a second, but i think donald trump a billionaire businessman is pretty establishment too. A man on fifth avenue and has his name plastered all over the place. I think Bernie Sanders is establishment. You cant say someone who served in the congress, tleechl decades is anything, but establishment. There are rumblings and i hear your point on brexit. There are certainly rumblings of the institutions which hold us altogether and establish the rules for a long time are being thoroughly thoroughly questioned and i think youve seen that play out in both primaryings. A lot of it is what the messaging is. I dont know the substance in terms of legislate laytive agenda, but certainly youve seen a rallying cry play out on both sides. Fair enough. Great having you with us this morning. Thanks for having me. Thanks. See you soon. You got it. Coming up, an update on the california wild fires forcing thousands out of their homes and then later the fed kicking off a twoday meeting as an earnings braid hits wall street. Get you set for the trading day ahead, but first this day in history. Growing beyond 33,000 acres and 20,000 people have been ordered to leave their homes. 3,000 firefighters are battling the blaze. About 20 buildings have been destroyed including the famed sable ranch. It was a set used for a lot of tv shows over the past 50 years, including the 18 and 24. And i know you probably saw the movie, the 18, but there was. Not a big movie person. Because i know you have not seen the tv show. Come on. I watched one episode of 24. Youve heard of mr. T. What are you talking about fool. Pity the fool. Yes. That was the guy. I need just like a list. I need a todo list. From your time. We had one or of anchors say bruce spring seen the. I think of him as someone my parents listen to. I wouldnt go there. Maybe beetles. Lets get a look at markets. U. S. Equities would open fractionally lower. S p down by two, nasdaq off by about six points. Largely reflecting some of the sentiment were seeing in europe. France is marginally down, italy down the worst. Down 1. 25 . Spain down close to 1 . Germany and uk fractionally positive right now. A lot of this is based on the moves in oil. Wti yesterday broke through 45. Slid bringing the Energy Sector with it. Brent was down. Crude again is down another 1 as is brent. Gnat gas down as well. Take a look where the yield is. Certainly a lot of companies able to refinance at this. We see wells fargo, reports because weve seen healthy spreads in the credit markets. Certainly something to watch there. The euro is firm. Dollar yen is in tin focus toda the pound is basically unchanged at this hour as well. For more on what investors need to watch, were joined by michael zin. David leave vets Global Market strategist at j. P. Morganen funds. Thank you. Who in their right mind would be out buying ahead of the fed and ahead of japan this week. Volatile is the opportunity here. You have elevations fairly elevated. We have a global postbrexit and we have ale p decedent earning season and this is an earnings driven market and weve successfully sort of climbed the wall of worry here. We made new highs. And it has been accompanied by up until yesterday very low v volatilit volatility. Its not unusual to see post volatility periods. We would embrace that volatility. A way to buy Higher Quality companies at better discounts. Have you been surprised we havent heard a lot of companies talk about brexit as a anythingtive, talk about the stronger dollar as a negative. Those issues have largely been absent from a lot of discussions. It has been a little bit surprising, but the bank of england hasnt said what their response to brexit is going to be. The ecb has taken the same approach. We just dont know enough. In a risk off environment from a corporate standpoint, i dont think the ceos want to put the cart before the horse. To your point on earnings, i think investors are refocusing on the fundamentals. Reminding us its about expectations. Year over year, Earnings Growth is still negative, but were seeing Companies Beat analyst estimates. Thats putting pressure on stock prices. At some point in the future, theyre going to do article 50 where at some point two years after that something will happen. Its hard to trade or find any actual effect other than the fear. Its hard for companies to hedge too. Were all going be dead from a big tidal wave. How do you trade Global Warming so we sell everything today. Its straight out of the european playbook. Kick the can a little bit further and maybe it will address itself. Thats assuming the 100 economists are correct its a disaster when it happens, other than versus the other people that think you know were gaining sovereignty and the management of your own affairs would be appositive. People are lining up to do trade deals with the uk. Who is going to go to the end of the q, nobody. Its our view brexit is a local issue. We dont think it has a terrible impact on the. It seems like the market is saying i will admit the market was wrong before brexit, what the market is saying this is a regional issue. Not really affecting the u. S. And back to your point focusing on the low volatility improving fundamental environment. Markets were worried about oil again. Its 42. Oil has been the boogy man for sure. Not people turning back on. Its huhuh.