Up to this point. After the gains we saw here, gains in oil prices, this morning the dax is up by 0. 8 . The cac and ftse 100 up by better than 1. 1 . Italian market, spain market, gains across the board better than 1 . Lets check out currencies right now. You can see the dollar is up across the board. Euro at 112. 11. Dollar yen at 101. 40. All of this is because of what we saw with oil prices. That is the big story were watching now. Watching it quite closely. Prices spiked yesterday on word that opec agreed to limit production, meaning the cartel would cut for the First Time Since the financial crisis. Today traders are focusing on the lack of detail, thats putting pressure on prices. Goldman sachs saying the opec deal should add 7 to 10 to oil prices the first half of next year but longer term the firm is skeptical. The analyst says if this proposed cut is strictly enforced and supports prices they would expect it to prove selfdefeating medium term with a large drilling response around the world. Goldman sachs sticking with its forecast of wti crude at 43 a barrel the end of this year, then 53 a barrel the end of 2017. The weird thing about this deal is it would be a Million Barrels per day. It could be 200,000 Barrels Per Day. They havent decided who is cutting what and it doesnt take into account what russia and the United States do. How much was it down earlier . Its down 20 cents. That entire thrust you youre not buying . How much was it up yesterday . Up 5 yesterday. The way i would characterize the story, its hanging on most of the gains from yesterday. Are you skeptical of what was p put in place yesterday . I thought it was a strong deal until i started reading the details. The take is that the saudis are caving at this point. This has hurt them much worse. Even if they go along with this, even if opec goes along with it, which im not convinced entirely of, it doesnt take into account what the United States or russia will do. Pretty big move yesterday. The biggest move i think since april. Are you surprised goldman still thinks were at 43 . No. Ever since the 300, i dont listen. I think that was 2007. That was goldmans London Office in 2007. Then they said 15. Maybe 25. I forget. Who should we listen to . Anybody . John kilduf. Look. Here he is. We have juergen coming up mu. We do. Tony blair, i can come up with a few. De gaulle. Charles de gaulle . Yeah. Isnt he a foreign leader . Sarkozy. Hes trying to come back. He is. Thats bad. This guy i wont say it, but he kind of looks like hes got a far away look in his eye at times. Gary johnson. Yeah. Gary jo. Is there a j. Lo . Gajo . Thanks for letting me fall into that one. Some mens from the fed president Esther George. The things that happen when i follow your lead. But seriously, aleppo, remember that . Yeah. Are we going to show type of him . I done want to do that. Aleppo . The latest thing. Will we so he shape of that . Probably. Do we have to do that . We are. I dont want to do that. Its too uncomfortable and awkward. As opposed to Everything Else we talked about. Exactly. Notable comments from Esther George yesterday. The Voting Member saying she wants to raise Interest Rates slowly but surely. But she doesnt want to put the brakes on Economic Growth. George was one of three policymakers who dissented on the feds decision last week to leave rates unchanged. Shell join us at 8 30 a. M. Eastern. All the cut scuttlebutt about j yellen. Someone conceded the hand wringing. They all i think they all do sit there, like 16 of them all at once and go like this. All right. Everybody now. Everybody now. Wring together. Three, two, one. I think they do. I think they sit here like this every meeting. They do feel the weight of the world on their shoulders. They shouldnt because we have gotten by for years without every single thing in the economy being micro managed. But theyre in unchartered territory. Whose fault is that . Now they have to figure out how to get out of it. Congress is sending president obama a bill to keep the u. S. Government operating through december 9th. That averts a possible shut down of the government this weekend. This after top lawmakers broke a stall mate to help the water crisis in flint, michigan and to combat the zika virus. It contains 1. 1 billion in zika funding. This measure is Congress Last major todo item before the november election. Before that, of course, you have one other issue that we expect them to be sticking around for. This is it. Wells fargos ceo john stumpf back in the hot seat this time facing the House Financial Services committee after giving up 41 million of his pay already. Wilfred frost is covering the hearing on capitol hill. Reporter good morning. Despite wells fargos ceo john stumpf agreeing to forfeit 41 million in pay late on tuesday, under any comparison thats a massive amount. Pressure on him and the company increased yesterday. Even before the move had time to resonate, senator Elizabeth Warren tweeted that stumpf should still resign and return every nickel he earned since 2011, which, by the way, would equate to 175 million. The day ended with the state of california suspending business relationships with wells fargo for one year. Its a major symbolic move rather than a hit to their earnings. About 0. 1 of 1 or 22 million to wells fargo. California state treasurer john chang highlighting that things could get worse still if they dont improve. These sanctions will be in place for 12 months. However, should wells fargo fail to comply with settlement agreements it reached with federal and local regulators or evidence surfaces that they reengaged in the same behavior, the sanctions may escalate up to and including a complete termination of our business relationship with the chiang wi lunch today. The bottom line is mr. Stumpf heads to capitol hill still under intense pressure. Joe, you said there was a lot of this yesterday when janet yellen was there. Im sure the same will be true today. I just looked it up. I tried to get a video of what actual hand wringing looks like. I think maybe its squeezing them together. Do you know . Joe, ill take a video today and ill get the definition. Let me know what theyre doing. I think if you look up hand wringing, there may be a picture of the fed. I thought it was like this. I think its like a church yeah . What am i going to do . What am i going to do . What if theres another bad employment report . I dont know. Im not sure. Im feeling anxiety, though, from the its backwards. From doing it . Yes. So it doesnt help . No. Thanks. Thank you, guys. We should tell you the chairman of the Financial Services committee, Jeb Hensarling will be joining us before the grilling begins to tell us what hes looking forward to. And then live coverage of john stumpfs testimony starting at 10 00. If i were him, id be like im out of here. Not enough money to keep you around . No, hes made enough. He would still go to the hearing. The problem is, even if you were to resign, you would you might as well stay. At this point. It is the busiest day of the week for Economic Data. 8 30 eastern, weekly jobless claims, and the final estimate on Second Quarter gdp. Joining us now is j. J. Kinnehan, and christian lamonty. J. J. , in gem,neral i look at yo and i think vix. We got a brief move that made us think something would start happening. Now back down to things not really happening. Got all the way to 14. 39, pure excitement. Back down to 12. Back at 12 now. I think its a tough time for Retail Investors because we waited around for the fed forever. Now its like, okay, now we will wait for the election. The fed meeting in november, lets face it, i dont think anybody expecting anything to happen because of how close it is to the election. 11 probability of a rate raise. December, 54 probability. With all that, its sort of hurry up and wait, hurry up and wait. Were continuing to see the same cycle. One thing i will say, october is the most volatile month of yoal months. Top to bottom volatility usually 9 . Because you have 87, 89 in there, the strange thing about it, october also has a positive return. Even with 87. Even with that. So its like in boxing they say you get knocked out by the punch you dont see. I think the thing thats there for volatility is probably an event we dont know about right now. Not on anybodys radar. What else . Thats sort of someamentals the, too. Weve been at 18,000 by n. As faa range for five months now. We are going higher. Much of that we can talk about Central Banks. Central banks do drive things. Bank of japan put a marker on the ground and said they will keep the japanese tenyear rates at zero. So effectively theyre anchoring the entire yield curve. If the japanese yield curve is stabilized and anchored, the rest of the world is anchored as much. That reduces a rates volatility and thats good for the markets. Theyre already failing at that. The japanese government bonds are already below zero percent. Does that mean they have to change their strategy more and start selling bonds . Its below because they have not gone full force with respect to maintaining the rate anchor they are talking about. Over time it will unfold. I think the expectations in the marketplace is that they will be reasonably successful with respect to anchoring the tenyear note. They will be doing it. Again, the question from my perspective is not necessarily whether they will succeed with respect to reviving Economic Growth. Thats an important issue that we should talk about. However, as far as markets are concerned, its really what theyre doing and what the impact of that is. Thats positive for equities on a global basis. With the opec agreement potentially, thats another positive. We werent expecting that at all. We talked a lot about politics, the two candidates, buying building up debt. You can see the worry about the Central Banks going, just turning, the dollar worthless, all that rampant inflation, weve gone so long without inflation that it almost seems like time to just throw out everything. In japan, wouldnt you throw everything out . After 20 years . You cant print enough money. Thats their issue. Whats left to throw . Im ready to throw. I cant believe it just seems like demand is so weak. We cant engender the slightest bit of inflation. Once you do it how do you stop it. For now is the genie out of the bottle . Is the toothpaste out of the tube . Theyre far more we thought volcker was the greatest in history for getting rid of inflation, now its harder to ingender . Especially in a world thats levered up and demand short. That brings us to the key important i would like to make, theres a way to get things going that requires fiscal action on a coordinated basis. The political will to do that on a global context, its not there. Andrew, thats why that trump thing. You had 5 trillion. You though who the greatest president was for adding 10 trillion in eight years obama. Suddenly that looks like a smart thing. That stimulus we did in 08 should have been 5 trillion. You know who we have coming up . Maya mcguinness. She will be mad. We will hear about the problems with deficits and what she thinks about it is incredible. I dent font know what it is, demographics . Its a conundrum for the rest of the year. Thats why people have to look at portfolios now, if something does happen, theyre not taken by surprise. Or they have to read this book. There you go. Which would probably help. Great book. Congratulations. Thank you. Gentlemen, thank you for coming in. Look at this. He signed it. Thats nice. When we come back, a red flag on our countrys debt. The president for the committee for responsible federal budget says neither candidate has a plan to fix the debt. Squawk box will be right back. Welcome back to squawk box. In political news, an nbc news pole finding 52 of voters who catch watched the debate or followed the coverage in the news, thought clinton won. 21 said trump won, 26 said neither candidate came out on top. This is a bit more of a scientific poll than some stuff we saw immediately in the aftermath of the debate where people did these sort of flash surveys online. Still, at least antidotally the people i know who saw it, if you were a trump supporter before, you were a trump supporter after. 8 undecided . It changed 8 , 9 . Good luck trying to find them. Thats a lot. If someone is changing their mind at this point, thats a lot. We heard from the president ial candidates this week about how they would handle the economy if elected, our next guest says neither candidate has a plan to reduce the debt. Joining us is mayya mcguinness from responsible federal budget. Great to see you. This is an issue we have been talking about with you for years at this point. Its an issue weve been talking about for years. Not an issue the candidates are talking about. Despite the fact that the country faces fiscal challenges, the debt as a share of the overall economy is the highest since world war ii and deficits are once again growing. Neither candidate has a plan that would put a single penny towards slowing the growth of the debt. In terms of getting the my going, which is the Bigger Picture challenge here, you cant do that with such a significant debt overhang thats going to be lasting and effecting the economy going forward. I would argue the conversation has turned to such an extent that the majority of the conventional wisdom at this point is that the Central Banks have done all they can do. Its time for legislatures to pick up and increase spending. Thats the way conventional wisdom goes that we will see our way out of what has been a subpar economic recovery. This idea there is more splendisplenending to come. What do you say to people who have that idea . I find it on both sides of the aisle and i dont entirely agree with it. I wasnt mad as i was listening to your last segment talking about the need for more fiscal spending and a coordinated need globally. The fed is in many ways tapped out around the world, we need to look at the shortterm and what to do but also in the longterm. Because spending money or cutting taxes is so much easier than the reverse, getting the debt under control, what we can do in this country and around the world is walk and chew gum at the same time. That means put in place the shortterm measures to get the economy going. And more importantly focus on the structural changes that will help promote growth, whether its tack reform or Public Investment spending. But you also need to couple that with a plan thats going to make it clear that our debt wont be growing faster than our economy. What we have now is an unsustainable situation. If your debt is growing faster than the economy, you have to get your economy growing but also make policy changes. Not one plan that come out of either the trump or linton administration that would slow that growth of the debt. What youre talking about are the entitlements, Social Security, medicare, those ballooning programs that take up such a significant amount of what were able to raise in revenue. By far the biggest challenge is the entitlements. One loss of opportunity is we have known the aging of the population is coming. Its no surprise baby boomers are moving into their retired years and doing so without us having made a single bit of progress on stranging structurally the programs they rely on for retirement. If you look at the debate on monday night, Healthcare Programs and Social Security take up over 50 of our federal budget. They account for over three quarters of the spending were facing. How much time did we discuss them at the debate . The Budget Discussion at the debate . Zero percent of the time was devoted to that. Nobody wants to talk about entitlement reform because its difficult. If we dont make those changes you wont get the fiscal situation under control and the debt will continue to grow. Maya, i know youre talking about this in the context of both candidates, but at least according to your own numbers, it seeps one candidate on this issue is much worse than the issue. Yeah. You want to speak directly to that . I not even close. I dont want to beat around the bush here. Were a very bipartisan organization. Our numbers are unbiased. We found that Hillary Clinton has a plan that she would offset the cost of all of her new spending. Theres a significant amount of spending, and middle tax class cuts. All of those new priorities would be paid for by tax increases on the well after and business tax increases. Its the pay as you go candidate. She wouldnt make the situation worse, but she wouldnt make it better, even doing nothing well add 9 trill 9 trillion on to. Donald trumps we find would add over 5 trillion to the debt, on top of that 9 trillion in the next ten years. So the debt would balloon under the presidency the policies that hes talking about having in his presidency. Hes talked about how it would generate Economic Growth but theres a number of constraints on Economic Growth, the largest being as the demographic shifts we wont have the growth from labor, so the productivity gains you would need you that scenario are unprecedented. So we need to be more reamilist about the policy reforms. And donald trump said he would not touch Social Security and medicare, the largest challenges to the fiscal situation. Just hearing raising taxes on wealthy, and raising taxes on businesses, i mean, many people maya at this point think nearterm we worry about Social Security, even larry kudlow. Even nearterm, we try to get out of this muck, 1. 75 gdp growth and worry about entitlements down the road. We have to cut corporate taxes. We got to. So we dont blow out the deficit under Hillary Clinton. We have another that sounds like more of the same for the next four, eight years which nobody wants at this poi