Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20161118 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box November 18, 2016

1997, down 1. 75 . So the selloff in bond market has been real. The 30year yield back above 3 . 10year at 2. 30. The fiveyear, 1. 7, and twoyear at 1. 035 . The nikkei closed higher by a half percent. European equities at this hour, lower. Not by a whole lot. Except for italy and spain, off by more than 1 . Crude prices are mixed. Lower by 7 cents for wti. Look at the dollar, which is stronger once again against the euro and the yen. 14year high for the dollar index. 1. 06 is what the euro will cost you. You will get 110 yen for every dollar. Reuters is reporting this morning that chinese policymakers are ready to slow the decent of the yuan so it doesnt fall too quickly. Its 6. 88. That headline sergeauggests thay will let it fall through 7. People saying the important level that could the negative for multinationals to the point that where the everybody is looking for a reason for this rally to stop. Thats another one. I dont employee if that would stop it. The u. S. Dollar index, its been steep how far its gone. If you look 12 months ago, barely up. You had that spike in the dollar late last year. Thats why maybe its not that big a shock. In a world where we close the borders and become a domestic economy again and just take care of ourselves, do we worry about currency translations . Kicking butt, making everything here . Consuming everything here . You cant do that, i understand that, but is there something to be said if we start putting more money in the pockets of people . Get the small banks lending again . Isnt it possible we dont need everybody else . Corporate profit translation is what it is, but you wont go from 40 profit overseas to half of that. If youre a Consumer Products company, youre selling to them over there. When we were sweating the dollar six months ago, a year ago, when it was strong, what if this happened without trumps election, without the an maima spirits being conjured up, what would 1. 06 on the euro have been like . White as ghosts in fear of what it would do to revenue. Or said ecb is doing what they have to do and its working. I honestly think the strong dollar last year wasnt so much about the trade flows, it was about disrupting Capital Markets activity. About helping the oil crash and helping you had this global dollar shortage story out there. I dont know if that means well halt right here. The markets freaked out. Thats why you freaked out. I never believed parody. For the euro . Yeah. But its looking that close. That close. I remember when the dollar was below. And the pound. What the hell . Approximately the same populations. Yeah. The pound, that cant go up. No. Would hurt. Among the other top stories, new data on postelection investments. Investors poured 23. 6 billion into stock funds the last week alone. Etfs took in 27 billion. Financial sector funds brought in 6. 7 billion. Municipal bond funds posted 3 billion in outflows. Thats one sector where the outcome would be so asymmetric depending on who won the elections. Munies. Muny bonds, thats right. Go to munies, protect yourself from taxes. Now, bam, you see the exit from the doors. If the tax rate goes down, the meanings change. That happened in the early 2000s as well. Mario draghi speaking at a conference in frankfurt this morning. The ecb president says the central bank will pfocus on recovery in europe even if monetary stimulus is withdrawn at some point. We remain committed to monetary accommodation which is necessary to secure a sustained convergence of inflation towards a level below but close to 2 over the medium term. We cannot yet drop our guard. Draghi says he still sees a significant degree of uncertainty for the economy there. Volkswagen will cut 30,000 jobs at its vw brand as part of a plan to boost profitability and fund a shift to electric and selfdriving cars. 23,000 of those cut also come in germany. Volkswagen expects the move to save 4 billion annually starting 2020. Elon musk is one step closer to merging his two entertains. Share holders voted 85 in favor of merging tesla and solarcity. The 2. 1 billion stock offer could create or would create one firm that sells emissionsfree cars and rooftop solar panels to power them. Musk says the deal will be completed within the next couple of dales, critics say its essentially tesla bailing out solarcity. But musk said the solar panel firm would not way on the bottom line. Mcdonalds rolling out its restaurant of the future concept. The company will now offer Table Service in the u. S. As well as introduce mobile pay and orrering. And selforder kiosks. Cnbc caught up with Steve Easterbrook who described the big changes. To give you an example of how were changing our attitude, we asked customers to fit around our Business Model for 60 years and weve been successful at doing that, now customers and consumers in general are demanding more choice and control over their lives so we need to adapt and evolve our Business Model to fit around their needs. For those who want Table Service, thats a great option we can offer. Each time we convert a rauchbt, we see the results the next day. Shares of mcdonalds higher by 24 . Sales force im Third Quarter revenue rising 20 on higher sales of subscription and support services. The cloud competing company is forecasting Fourth Quarter revenue above analyst expectations. Heres Ceo Marc Benioff last night on mad money. Ive been a huge bull around growth in 2017, 2018, 2019. I feel when you look at the Global Economy and talk to global customers, whether its here in the United States, japan, or in europe, ive seen a lot of customers burn off the 2008 problem, and im optimistic for whats coming in the future. Marvell technologys Third Quarter results and guidance beating analyst forecasts after the close on double digit growth in its data storage and infrastructure business. The company launching a 1 billion stock buyback. Gaps Third Quarter profit fell 18 . The retailer posted its seventh straight quarter of declining sales. The company says it is still struggling to bring shoppers into stores. They plan to close 64 shops this year up from the previous 50. In political news, president elect donald trump has offered former military intelligence chief Michael Flynn the job of National Security adviser,s that according to an a. P. Report. Its not clear if flynn accepted the role. It involves coordinating information generated by americas defense and intelligence agencies. It serves as the president s top daytoday counselor on foreign and military affairs. The post does not require senate confirmation. And former republican president ial nominee, mitt romney, will meet with donald trump this weekend and reportedly discuss the secretary of state position. He looks like a secretary of state, i think. You know who looks like a secretary of state . I think it ends there, john kerry. Looks like he would be looks like he would be remember, they used to say he looks french. He speaks french. He speaks french. Tallest guy in the room. Looks like thats just my opinion. It ends there. Thats according to a report from nbc news. Romney was one of really . I dont remember that. One of trumps biggest gop critics during the president ial campaign. This is amazing. What do you think this is . Happy together. We played it at the beginning. Anyone can get along. Theres campaigning and governing. So sh, be donald trump, look magnanimous, romney, how can he say yes after all those things he said in that speech. Big league for republican unity. It would be huge. It doesnt always work out that way. Jeb bush wont be in the cabinet. I dont think john mccain. Theres certain things theres no going back on certain things said and done. Im surprised this one wasnt the point of no return. How can he say yes after all the things he said about him . I think the way he says yes, the country needs me. Its not about the grudge. Thats how he gets there. This could be ugly. That relationship. Trump would be his boss. I would give him the job just to whip him. Get in here what . What did you get i sent you over there. What did you get . Oh, nothing. I got nothing. Theres your answer. Wouldnt you just get the lash out . He has experience on the international stage, remember with the olympics. Romney is a talented wasnt he a missionary . Right. Hes a talent. I was ecstatic about him. I thought he would make a great secretary i like rudy. Not sure thats the position for him. The irony in 2012, mitt romney said biggest National Security challenge is russia. The democrats laughed at him at the time. Now theres a different reset going on here. Youre intimating that would help counter the criticisms of donald trump, about whether hes too close to putin, russia or messing things up. Former house speaker, Newt Gingrich told nbc news he wont be in the cabinet for the president elect. Instead choosing to focus on Strategic Planning through the emerging republican majority. Donald trump taking credit for keeping a manufacturing plant of ford in kentucky instead of relocating to mexico. Ford previously said they would move production out of the mkc out of louisville. But never specified that would be to mexico. The president elect saying i worked hard with bill ford to keep the lincoln plant in kentucky. I owed it to the great state of kentucky and their support of me. In the trumpinspired rally in stocks, janet yellen said a rate hike could happen soon. Joining us now to discuss is the chief Investment Officer at bmo private banks, and samantha rello is also here. Before the election, you had a lot of interviews, jack, saw a lot in print. What was your forecast for who would win the election and what was your forecast if trump did have a surprise victory . What was your prediction for what the markets would do. Yeah, i, along with everyone else, expected Hillary Clinton to win. Right. You were correlating positive Market Action to her prospects being positive, negative action in the market to trumps prospects. Right. So the thought was when comey issued the letter absolving hillary on monday, market moved up 370 points, assuming that hillary was going to win. The following tuesday, leak shun day tuesday, the market was up 170 points. So the thought was we have to undue that 500point i know how it hatched, but how did you come up with logically that a trump surprise victory would be so disastrous for the markets . I said it was like a v shape. I said an 8 to 10 decline would be a buying opportunity but an 8 to 10 decline, you didnt talk about a tenminute to 10 decline. How long did you think i dont know. I thought of an 8 to 10 decline because of his personality. Even though he was talking about Corporate Tax reform, not raising Capital Gains rates. Right. Deregulation. Keystone a litany of things now in hindsight that were all talking about how the animal spirits have been conjured up, how great it will be. As a strategist, none of that was apparent to you . Was apparent to me that he was talking about it. I think the notion of closing rank and sealing our borders and trade that really has evolved over democrats were antitrade, too. Democrats were antitrade. So lets cancel both of those out. Republicans were i dont think democrats werent as bad about trade as trump . I dont think the depositions wanted to cancel nafta. Depositions were sus perss pers suspicious of tpp. Everybody had the brexit play book, instead of 6 , 7 in three days, you got 6 , 7 in three hours. I said the Market Reaction of the Trump Victory was as surprising as the Trump Victory itself. That didnt help investors a lot. The people that listen to you. The good news is we moved from large cap to mid cap. That was because of because of just this whole populism trend. We knew that if anything happens globally, its going to impact the largest companies, particularly those that enjoy the left Corporate Tax rates. Samantha, are we ahead of our skis now . Or is this justified by the kind of economy well have for the next several years . I think some of the concern around yields rising too quickly is unwarranted. Theres a parallel if you go back to the taper tantrum. The tenyear yield doubled in five months and was pricing in a big policy shift on the monetary side. Now were getting that on the fiscal side. We expect higher yields, but we were saying that any way with healthy normalization. As long as it doesnt get too how the of hand, fixed incomes will be find. Are you surprised the decoupling of the bond market and stock market was almost instant. It shouldnt have happened that way. We were at levels on the tenyear we had not seen in rising yields are supposed to be bad for the stock market. Straight up. That is weird it decoupled so quickly. We were waiting for stall speed in the economy. Maybe we havent. It almost looks coincidental, that trump might be coming into something that already happening. Yesterday with the housing starts. You know, he may make America Great again, but he didnt do anything yet, did he . In a week . Were pricing in a lot of things. You can see it in the dollar, that tends to overshoot, price in too much. I would say the divergence between equities and bonds, thats been something thats happening. Weve been seeing that in correlation. I was surprised but not really that sbrurprised if you see tha split in the market. Its better to be lucky than good sometimes. The main point that helped trump get into office was this huge dissatisfaction between the split between profits and wages. Its the lowest its been in our histo history. While i think if if trump is going to have to make good on his promise to the people that brought him into office, that split between profits and wage also have to tilt back towards wages. Unless he can get productivity going or growth going a lot, its likely going to be at the expense of profits. As most people or many people have pointed to the wealth effect that the fed tried to orchestrate, helping people who had the assets and adding to income. The reason the fed was stuck as the only game in town, because for eight years we did all redistribution and no growth initiatives. If you do some growth initiatives, you get the fed out of the way and youre at 4. 9 already. This is stepping into this when wages they were trying to solve the problem you brought up but never did. Couldnt. Now well see the labor market may be tight enough. And lets see what happens in europe. Who did you vote for . I did not vote for trump. Yeah. I see i think people im a florida voter. I know. I think the forecast sometimes have too much to do with their own politics. The policies themselves were pro business, pro growth. Thank you, lady and gentlemen. Coming up, shares of gap are under pressure. The Third Quarter pressure fell nearly 18 . Slump in instore visits continues. More on what to expect from the Holiday Retail season next. I have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Sing girl, come on. [ singing ] sorry, ariana you gotta go. Seriously . Verizon limits me and i gotta get home. Youre gonna choose navigation over me . Maps get up here. Umm. That way. Girl you better get on tmobile why pay more for data limits . Introducing tmobile one, unlimited data for everyone. Get four lines just 35 a month. Shares of retailer gap falling after hours following the companys Third Quarter results which beat in the top line and matched in the bottom line. Gap saw its seventh straight quarter of declining shares. Joining us with more is roxanne myer, softland retail analyst. Good morning. Good morning. So, as i see the reaction in gap in particular, stock ran up close to 20 or something in the prior two weeks, maybe not set up for a mild disappointment. Where is gap in the Overall Group arranged right now heading into the Holiday Shopping season . I think the perspective is old navy has been a stand out in the space, one of the few dw divisions or companies comping positive. The market was rewarding that. What we werent anticipating is the Fourth Quarter reduction and a ton of headwinds in terms of investments that are entering the picture. Management took a cautious tone as it relates to traffic in november. I think gap has its work cut out for it. Old navy will keep humming. Gap and Banana Republic are laggards. Theres no evidence that a turn is imminent in those divisions. Do they have to go deeper with the cuts to the nonold navy chains . Whats the solution here . On the surface it looks like relatively cheap looking stock. Maybe theyre okay preserving margins. A lot of retailers are in that category and it seems like retailers want to give them another chance. Theres a couple things to think about. On one hand, this company has been you could say winning the past few years in share buyba buybacks. This is the First Quarter that the company signaled they will be investing again. That puts pressure on the expense structure and the top line to deliver. What are they investing in . In people, in overhead, in marketing. So better training . You know, i think its also corporate. Its at the headquarters level. Trying to invest in customer awareness. Trying to bring new customers to the brand. Its an attempt to get more traffic into the stores. Does gap tell us anything about overall retail . Is this just about people dont wear the khakis anymore . The issues at gap are fairly gap specific. What do you think will happen for the Holiday Shopping season . Not just for gap but throughout. I think the top line will remain

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