Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20161214 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box December 14, 2016

Off of 11week highs in europe. Lets look at the action in the crude markets. Opec members have agreed to cut production. Wti down today 1. 2 . Brent down 1 . Taking a breather. Its been a torrid run in the oil market. U. S. Federal reserve will announce the latest Interest Rate decision. The fed expected to raise rates for the second time in ten years. Also expecting an updated economic and Interest Rate forecast. You can watch all of this, the full coverage of the fed announcement and Janet Yellens News Conference on cnbc. There are a few other key reports to watch today. Heres whats happening. 8 30 a. M. Eastern time, the Producer Price index and retail sales come out. At 9 15 a. M. , Industrial Production and business inventories for october. Thats at 10 00 a. M. Eastern time. Now lets talk a bit of politics. President elect trump will be holding a roundtable summit with Tech Industry leaders today. Among those expected to attend, the man who put this together, peter thiel, bet on trump early and was one of the few in Silicon Valley. Cheryl sandberg will join the group. Elon musk, larry page and eric schmit, one notable absence, jack dorsey, the man who invented twitter, trumps most used social platform has not been invited this comes one day after dorsey did a q a session with whistleblower eric snowden. You have to wonder if theyre related . Im putting it unrelated in terms of snowden, but is it about the business . He is the ceo of a Payments Company and twitter. Its also very possible that maybe peter thiel maybe theres backchannel talks. Maybe dorsey suggested he was not i dont know. Dorsey was probably one of the most outspoken on trump during the campaign on the other end of it. Meaning he had made enough inferences if not had gone further. I dont know. So had jeff bezos and others. And trump took direct fire on cheryl sandberg, a lot of these guys meeting with him today. Its a kiss and make up session. My anxiety i dont know if its anxiety, my anxiety if i was one of these ceos, youll walk in there and it will be remember the media meeting with all the media heads . It was known as the firing line . Yelled at everybody. Wonder if it will be a Good Cop Bad Cop situation going on. Ahead of the tech summit, Ginni Rometty announcing her company will hire 25,000. The job also come over the span of four years including 6,000 positions added in 2017. The company will reinvest on training, focusing on vocational education. She will attend the meeting today. She has been on this for quite some time. Shes on the advisory council. The second trump won, she was off to the races on blue car worke e. Doll collar workers. I would want her to be off to the races to, beginning some edge with the incoming administration. On the twitter issue, our good friend nick dunn, managing editor here at the company, cnbc, remember that thiel criticized twitter as being run by pot smokers when he was on squawk box. Given that he was handing out the invitations. No invitations to pot smokers. President elect trump chose ryan zinke to be his interior secretary. He is the first gop congressman from montana. A top transition source confirming that pick to nbc. The news was a surprise. Last week an aide said kathy mcmore rick rogers would be the pick for that post. Goldman sachs will promote David Salomon and Harvey Schwartz to replace david cohn. This is a structure thats been in place for quite some time having a dual cohead at that juncture. David faber talked about solomon being one of those people. A new report in the china daily newspaper says chinas government will soon slap a penalty on an unnamed u. S. Automaker for monopolistic behavior. Corporate news, federal regulators dealing a blow to wells fargo. They determined the bank has not done enough to come up with an adequate living will plan for avoiding a taxpayer bailout. If it were to face bankruptcy as a result, the fed and fdic are placing new restrictions on the lender barring it from setting up new International Banking businesses and buying nonbank subsidia subsidiaries. This is the first tiis could ca two year s force wells fargo to divest itself of assets. This seems to be one bank that cant get itself together after the scandal of the past several months. This is the one bank that was supposed to be the classic Traditional Bank that had its act together, perhaps better than the others. Now all of it seems to be upsidedown. Tim sloan should thank trump. Yes. Ever since the election, its not been an issue. The stock off to the races. In Global Financial news, monte dei paschi confirming the ecb rejected its request to get more time to raise capital. The ecb told the bank a delay could cause a further deterioration in its liquidity threatening its survival. Monte dei paschis board is meeting today to decide whether to launch a lastditch privately funded attempt to raise cash as soon as tomorrow. The real deadline is december 31st. President elect trump announcing his intention to nominate former Texas Governor rick perry as secretary of energy this had been reported yesterday, expected, but made official moments ago. Little bit of deal news. So much news this morning. Johnson johnson is dropping its pursuit of swiss drugmaker actelion. Reports say that Johnson Johnson was unwilling to pay the price needed to seal the deal. Sanofi is now reportedly back in talks to buy the largest biotech firm. Sad news this morning to bring you. Actor alan thicke is dead after suffering a heart attack during a pickup hockey game in california. The actor was best known for playing the dad on the hit s sitcom growing pains. The c he is survived by three sons, including singer robin thicke. He was 69 years old. Turning back to the markets, the dow, s p 500, nasdaq logging new alltime highs with the dow loading at a record for the 16th straight time. The dow is less than 100 points away from the 20,000 mark. For some perspective on why this is psychologically important for investors, were joined by jack caffrey, and covering the fixed income angle as we await the fed income decision, bill irving, Portfolio Manager over at fidelity investments. Jack, ill start off with you. Are you still aggressively overweight . How do you feel about the market now . I think the market can continue to rally into yearend and rally into the First Quarter. Right now we have i think we have two major supporters, the psychology, the dow closing in on a new record. We love round numbers and those milestones. That feeds the exuberance, exuberance is supported. Economics have turned higher. Can i ask how much higher it can do . You said rally into, but what are we talking about from here on out . Whats your time frame . You know do you think the First Quarter . Yeah. At point or two . Percentage point or two . Could be a percent to three 1 to 3 over the next two months. It could be a nice pulling forward of the returns next year. At some point well have the reality set in and not everything we want will be happening. We saw that earlier this week with mcconnell saying i want tax reform but neutral. Is this a buy the rumor or sell the news event where come january 20th well look at pressure on the markets. Not necessarily the 20th, its you start going to congress and this is are what i would like. People have to step back from i want i want to what can i get. Bill, important to the Market Outlook is the trajectory of rate hikes. What do you think the fed will signal . Theres been solid payroll gains and inflation trending towards 2 . So in that context the market widely expects the fed to raise 25 basis points. Thats what well get. Thats the easy part. The bigger challenge is communicating to the market the likely path of Interest Rates in the months and years to come. There it will be interesting to see whether they stick with their guidance theyve given so far. What do you think . We know this is a tricky tightrope to walk. Market expectations are high for gdp growth next year. Theres a gap between what people think will happen and what is actually happening now. Where do you fall within that . I think 20 17 could prove to be the mirror image of what we got in 2016. Heading into this year, expectation was four Interest Rate hikes, up to today weve gotten zero. Plans have been derailed by china concerns in the winter, brexit in the summer. Maybe the new administration is generate spending tax and more so youre more skeptical on the results of fiscal stimulus and the ability of the administration actually to enact that to impact the economy next year. Thats what it sounds like. No what im saying is that if they do deliver that fiscal stimulus, the fed may be forced to push back with more Interest Rate hikes than is currently priced into the market. To balance things out. Effectively you would add that every central bank has been asking for fiscal stimulus for years. Theyre saying monetary spending has reached its limits, we would like some help. There will be a balancing act between weve been asking for this, now we get it. Will we take the bunch bowl away completely . Do they say they get it today or when it happens . The markets are acting as if we have it today. The equity market is acting like it will happen imminently. At 17 plus earnings, you expect it sooner. The idea of Shovel Ready Projects is much talked about but not really a reality. Bill, your concern . The fed is worried about pouring too much fiscal stimulus already near full recovery. For now theyll keep their head low and not comment much on what policies we nigmight get from t Trump Administration. I imagine your clients who do have cash, youre telling them to go all in . To capture this 1 to 3 upside . The other question is what are you dumping into . The 1 to 3 makes sense for the largely invested client. I imagine you do have clients who missed this. We have clients who have been underinvested and keep saying i want the pullback. The challenge is with every pullback theres been a reason for the pullback. Some scary story has gotten us there. With that theres been a resignation, and thats why people have been frustrated. Are you also advising people not to sell this year . Take gains next year . I think if you get the prospect of tax reform next year and lower rates, it would make sense to hold things. Seasonally you have things not sell now. Institutional selling largely ended in october. Thats why you have the season the strength in november, december, january. The flip side, bill, people were in bond funds, feeling losses. Could that be added selling pressure . I think the selloff could have some momentum. But the calls that this is the end of the three decade bull market in bonds, that may be premature. I say that for a couple reasons. Since the great recession, i cant count the number of times ive heard people say were in a rising rate environment and this is the end for bonds. Its been wrong time and time again. The factors that have kept Interest Rates low is still in place. Aging demographics, low productive growth. Do we revisit the lows on the tenyear yield . I dont think we do over the next six months. Over the next couple of years we could. All right. Well leave it there. When we return, president elect trump set to meet with top tech leaders today, including the ceos of apple, amazon, microsoft, tesla. We well tell you what to expect after the break. This is where i trade andrs. Manage my portfolio. Since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. Okay. Im plugged into equities trade confirmed and i have Global Access 24 7. Meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. Visit learnfuturestoday. Com to see what adding futures can do for you. Generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. Im in all the way. Is that understood . I dont know what shes up to, but its not good. Cant the world be my noodles and butter . Get your mind out of the gutter. Mornings are for coffee and contemplation. That was a really profound observation. You got a mean case of the detox blues. Dont start a war you know youre going to lose. Finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. On xfinity x1. Welcome back to squawk box. Stocks to watch today, Pershing Square cutting its stake in valeant pharmaceuticals. Pershings investment in valeant has lost 2 billion in value this year. We said he did it to help create a tax loss . He did it on purpose. He wanted to take the tax loss this year. I understand he wanted to take the tax loss, as opposed to holding nobody goes into it to create it. Exactly. He tolled is in order to tasold tax loss. Hertz is cut in cutting and replacing its ceo. At the same time the rental car company said it will reduce the size of its board. The kids clothes at zara, great. Yes. Very, very true. President elect trump getting ready to meet tech leaders today, later today. Jobs will be on the agenda he made his pick for Energy Secretary, john perry. John harwood joins us from outside the trump tower. Not far from zara. Good morning to you. Reporter good morning. First of all, cant let it go unnoticed, he will be meeting with elon musk today. Are you happy now . Im thrilled. Very happy. Did your column make that happen . Dont know. It may have helped. Peter thiels people reached out to elon musk. They worked together at pay pal, longtime friends. Yep. So many interesting subplots, aside from the sorkin column in this Tech Industry meeting with president elect trump. Trump went after the Tech Industry during the campaign, criticized apple for making products overseas, criticized bezos of amazon saying he was using the Washington Post to attack trump and preserve his tax position in washington. The Tech Industry was very much antitrump. They didnt like his crude populism, they didnt like some of the stances he took on social issues. So this is a potential meeting with all sorts of potential for conflict. I would expect it to be respectful. Yesterday bill gates sat down with becky and sort of outlined in a preview form how the two sides might be able to reach common ground. I think whether its education or stopping epidemics, other health breaks through, finishing polio, and in this energy space there can be a very upbeat message that his administration is going to organize things, get rid of barriers and have American Leadership through innovation be one of the things that he gets behind. So, innovation is the idea that bill gates pointed to. Potential place for them to come together. Donald trump has already talked about tariffs, ripping up trade deals that have existed. And were just going to have to wait and see when those Tech Industry leaders come out of that meeting with the president elect, exactly what the tone was, whether there was defiance, tough talk, or whether it was entirely a peacemaking session. All right. How do you think trump could, to the extent he can jawbone the creation of these types of jobs, he had this type of conversation before, at least a conversation of sorts with tim cook, that i think both of them might have talked about publicly, bringing back jobs to the United States. Do you think youll get commitments today from them about this type of thing . We talked about Ginni Rometty talking about a plan for blue collar jobs. How do you think this will go . I will be surprised if Tech Industry leaders come out of a meeting with donald trump and issue a commitment to him to doppler things that they were not already going to do. The softbank executive came out of the meeting with donald trump and said he would invest 50 billion in the United States, create 50,000 jobs, a lot of that was already in train. I dont think Tech Industry leaders would come out and give the impression that they have been brought to heel by donald trump. I think theyll explore areas where they have things in common. See if this president strikes a tone that they think is friendlier to the kind of work that they do. The emphases that donald trump made, he was talking about ill bring back steel jobs or coal jobs. Thats a message and constituency that he was talking to that is much, much different to what Silicon Valley is talking about. Some on his team are looking, including his choice for attorney general, have been looking to tamp down the use of h 1 b visas which many in Silicon Valley are happy using. I dont know if you saw this piece in politico this morning, Elizabeth Warren preparing an assault on mnuchin, also on tillerson by the democrats and perhaps some republicans. What do you think the chances are that both of them get confirmed . I think the chances that mnuchin gets confirmed are quite good. I think tillerson is going to be a tougher fight because youve got the overlay of fossil fuel executives being appointed, the relationship with russia, hacking allegations, the commitment to a bipartisan investigation, all of that makes the environment for tillerson more difficult. You have had rubio, mccain, Lindsey Graham express concern. Theres a risk there for tillerson. Less so for mnuchin. Where you will see more of a traditional left right split. John harwood, thank you very much. Business leaders are making it clear president elect trump needs to make good on tax refor

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