Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20170329 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box March 29, 2017

Trading, youre already going to see that things are fixed there as well. The dax is higher as well as the cac. Ftse relatively flat. The tenyear note. Yesterday the yield was settled in, back above 2. 4 . This morning still sitting at 2. 416. If you check out crude oil prices, which were slightly higher yesterday, this morning wti is up 28 cents to 4. 65. Couple big stories to watch this morning. British Prime Minister theresa may triggering a brexit. Signing a letter to invoke article 50. The letter with be land delivered to the European Council president in one hour from now. Todays actions mark the start of official divorce talks between the eu and the uk. Wilfred frost will join us at the bottom of the hour to talk to us more about brexit. Fed impending home sales come out at 10 00 a. M. Charlie evans, Eric Rosengren and John Williams will start to speak later today. Well watch for that. In an interview on cnbc yesterday, which hopefully you did not miss, because we told you not to miss it, Steve Liesman asked you not to miss it. Told nicely. Suggested. We suggested. He spoke with fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer and asked if the average fomc member forecast for two additional rate hikes this year is about right or if the markets had to prepare for something else. That seems about right. That is to say thats my forecast as well. Yes, you have to be you know for sure that you dont get everything right, particularly about the future. And you need to think about what happens if the economy is growing more slowly or if the economy is growing faster. Fischer said the feds current outlook la nhas not cha much from the march meeting. Also a bit of corporate news. Joe mentioned at the top of the hour, i mentioned it briefly in the prior show, blackrock announcing plans to overall its actively managed equities business. This time cue the terminator music. The Worlds Largest asset manager will cut jobs, drop fees and rely more on computers, ai to pick stocks. Planned fee cuts will cut roughly a 30 million hit to revenue and the company will take a 25 million charge this quarter reflecting severance and otherexpenses. At a time when everyone says we have to get away from actively managed and go towards these funds, now were letting the robots do it. What does Warren Buffett say about that . We were talking about it yesterday. Its sad to see anybody lose their job. This is not automation. These are guys whether we always wonder if the emperor has clothes. If youre no good, if the computer can do better than you the computer can only do as well as programmed by people to do. I dont understand how the computers work. When youre trying to do your emotion like selling losers. You wanted a quick profit. A lot of things human nature causes you to screw up. I would feel better if there was a completely i wouldnt mind a screen that ran it on something. Maybe thats what theyre doing. They still have people making final calls. The most successful hedge funds have been doing this for how long . Decades. But a lot of those guys were picking up pennies, half a penny here and. There. I understand this is different. This is using input to decide whats a good longterm buy, i guess. Right. They must have doing research. Its gigo, garbage in, garbage out, but when we do screens, earnings per share, sales growth. With you i would still rather have a human looking at the screen things at the end of the day. Yesterday, i dont know if we have an intraday chart. It was weird. The eightday selloff sort of coincided with the obamacare failure, and what it meant for tax reform. Yesterday in the middle of the day, suddenly paul ryan and others said, you know, some of these Freedom Caucus guys may come back. Have come back to us and said we wanted ideas on how to get this done. The president said it could be back on the table. Suddenly its back on the table. I was watching. It was up 20 points, 30 points, suddenly 80, 90, 130, 140. Its a reflection of how effective this administration is going to be or no, i didnt going to be. Its tax reform. At 28 i dont want your 28. Keep your 28 and your stupid column. 28 for the Corporate Tax rate. We were supposed to go to 15. I know. I will take 20. Ill settle with you at 20 . At 15 well compromise. Look, if you can pay for it 20, god bless. Get your magic wand. We are will grow so fast. Ill hire david blaine. Well have money left over. We will have money left over. I do think what you watch with the market is the market gauging, is this administration able to get things passed or not. When it looks more likely, the market takes off and runs with it. Between the big economic bounce back from coal, you just watch. You did see what Mitch Mcconnell said . I did. He said the whole thing is a nonstarter. He goes this is the law of the land. We have to live with it for a while. You never know when these guys are posturing. He has the senate. We havent gotten into the senate yet. Thats where it becomes a real fight. For more on the top political stories, which we have been talking about, a guy who has real insight on it, eamon javers is in washington. Speak for yourself. I will speak for yourself. They havent figured out how to have robots operate washington, d. C. , so well muddle through with the human beings. For now this administration is struggling to find a way to recover from the defeat of the healthcare bill last week. Whether they move on to tax reform, take another bite at that healthcare reform apple. The president hosted a reception last night for senators and their spouses at the white house. Sort of a social gathering but also with political overtones. He made some remarks there. I have some special friends up in this room especially, i must tell you, we have the republicans, but even a couple of democrats. A lot of people showed up that people werent expecting, which is a very, very good thing. And i know were all going to make a deal on healthcare. Thats such an easy one. The president suggesting there that healthcare is back on the table. He said its an easy one. You got a sense hes extending an olive branch to democrats saying its a good thing that some democrats came to the white house. This is an administration and president who called some Democratic Leaders losers and clowns over the past several months. He will have to do more olive branch extending. But that kind of reception is the kind of thing that barack obama was criticized in washington for for years of not doing enough of. Lock look at the president s schedule today. 11 00, he will host an opioid and drug listening session, at 3 45, he does a drop by by the womens empowerment panel. Not a lot on the schedule. That suggests that the president is taking time behind the scenes to meet with staff, make phone calls, find out where theyll go on healthcare, if theres an opportunity to revive that or what to do in terms of tax reform. They have not said what this administration would like to do on tax reform. Sean spicer did say this white house is driving the train on that bill. Eamon, thank you, sir. All right. Eamon. Hes not like a robot. Not at all. He knows stuff. Hes a long way. 0011, thats all you have to do if youre a robot. I dont envy robots, i envy sigh borg cyborgs. They get all the benefits of being human. I would like certain things indecembstructibleindestruct . Yeah. Wow. A day after the dow snapped an eightsession losing streak, joining sus mius is michael tyl. And michael farr, ceo after founder of farr, miller in washington, also a cnbc contributor. I dont think michael farr, i never called you mike. Have you . No one does, do they . For all of the other things you called me, joe, mike is fine. He called you mr. Vice president when we were going to run. And mr. President , yes. I was going to pick you. Look who we got, we got pence. You guys were separated at birth. Its like i had the right idea there. With the gray hair. Its still about the hair, joe. Can i call you mike . Youre michael, and ill call Michael Tyler mike. Does that work, mike tyler . Thats fine with me, thanks. Okay. Michael farr, i actually saw you on one of the other shows eventually. You didnt sound really that bullish. Are you bullish now or are you worried about being able to effect all of these things that the market already expects will happen . You know, i think the uptrends in place and people keep trying to call a top that wont happen. It hasnt happened for years. So, yeah, im worried about the level of prices. I think things are expensive. I think that weve been going up on stimulus for years on the fed. Praying well get stimulus now from the congress. Can it come . Will it come . I guess at some point 2018 well see real benefits from tax reform in the economy. But until then i keep waiting for the market to get inpatient and saying were sick of it and were going back tofu fundamental level. Its not happening. So i continue to be cautiously optimistic. But a correction would not bother me at all. I tell you, watching the last eight days, you can watch these different financial websites. I saw this slump is likely to continue. Why it is best to fade the trump trade. They were wrong for 14 . From november 8th, totally wrong, fighting it the whole way, they got less than a 2 selloff, theyre ready to call that they were calling that the top. Just like you said. Which makes me think were not there yet. I dont think youre ever there as long as people are still calling for it. We always seem to get blindsided by these things. I continue to think this is no time to go out and be too aggressive and too speculative. You have to make sure you own companies with real Balance Sheets and earnings. It will happen sooner wraor lat. Maybe were beginning to see it but i think you have to be cautious still. Mike tyler, this was we probably preinterviewed you before all the events of yesterday. In your notes you say growth expectations were moderated after the failure of obama repeal because of what it could mean for tax reform you also think, i guess, staying bullish, right . Absolutely. You know, it seems to me that most if you look at the dollar, if you look at currency markets, bond markets, they retreated substantially back to the levels where they were around the election. That tells us the markets have pretty much discounted any meaningful action out of washington. When you see the stock market Still Holding itself together really well, thats because corporate earnings are strong. Well have a good earnings season now. Were shaping up for a good rest of the year in terms of corporate profits. Thats driving the stock market. I dont see reason to back away from that now. If we get a correction, it will be a shallow one, not difficult for us to get through. Well ride through it. Rnlgt we ha we have a lot of stuff to think about. Mike tyler, around the world you think the growth story or the improved growth story is still intact . We have seen earnings beginning to pick up. As the ecb begins to back away from longterm quantitative easing, it starts helping the european banks, that helps the rest of the european economy. We are seeing demand pick up there as well. Of its own volition. As that happens, i think you will start seeing better returns coming out of europe than youve seen in quite some time. Theyre still cheaper than the u. S. In terms of pe ratios. We think europe does have some life to it. It is beginning to revive. Thats a story that also benefits u. S. Exporters as well. Joe, just quickly. I have to feel more cautious than this. Prices are still near alltime highs. Theres a lot of air under the market. When it goes down from any unforeseen event, there could be a 20 drop out there, no question about it. Iny nthink investors have to b careful. You seem like youre looking at it since 2009. Go back to 1999, took 18 years to double. It felt like this, didnt it . I dont know if theres a huge air pocket like that. You have low Interest Rates, fath fairly moderate inflation, stimulus on the horizon. But we couldnt quite understand why it was going up as much as it was. What was driving it . Because of the fed. Now the fed is actually going to get bailed out hopefully by where the economy actually does take the baton finally. Youre a nervous nelly, worry wart, thats why you have white hair. 40 years old. You went gray at 28, didnt you . I have been gray a long time. But its not in this business. I know. We think youre wise. Joe, one other thing to think about. We have to go. That was a wrap up. I shouldnt have started talking about his hair. Usually they play the music over me. They didnt this time. Keep talking, they will. They will. Thank you mike and michael. Thank you. You bet. Lets talk about stocks to watch. Shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals are soaring. Its Cystic Fibrosis combination therapy improved lung function in late stage trials. The stock is up 17. Sanofi and regeneron scoring a win as the fda approved a new drug to treat eczema. The therapy could bring in more than 3 billion in annual sales. The fda also approving roches multiple sclerosis drug. The green light puts the drug back on track after a threemonth delay by regulators over manufacturing issues. Meg tirrell has more on the pharma news at the bottom of the hour. New Economic Data out from chi china paints a more worrying picture out of bay sing. We bay jieijin beijing. Well reveal those numbers next. Wanna get away . Now you can with southwest fares as low as 59 dollars oneway. Yes to low fares with nothing to hide. Thats transfarency. Kevin, meet yourkeviner. Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin Kevin kevin kevin trusted advice for life. Kevin, hows your mom . Life well planned. See what a Raymond James Financial Advisor can do for you. Welcome back. Important data from china later this week, while our next guest expecting a strong read hes worrying about how big a price beijing is paying by projecting a stable growth. Were joined by leland miller. Lets talk about the official numbers that have been reported. Theyve been pretty good. They have been doing good. When you see manufacturing doing well, people will be bullish on china. Gdp is good. Manufacturing looking good. A few bits and pieces housing data looking good. So china is looking good for us. Thats not what were seeing in the data. What are you seeing . They have been doing everything they can to get this level of stability. What we saw this quarter is manufacturing and commodities cranked up. But we saw a really strongie but its unsustainable. What shows you that . If you look at the sales prices, youre seeing firm metrics go through the roof. We have done a phenomenal performance in goal, steel. Commodities have done fantastic. The Balance Sheets of firms have not gotten better because cash flows have deteriorated. Youre saying this is faux demand created by the government . Its a faux demand. Were seeing the same things in property. Property may have peaked. Commodities may have peaked. A poor performance in the Retail Sector in q1. Theres a lot to be worried about, particularly with the credit environment unsustainable at these low rates. You say things like that, if that is true, its bad news not only for china but the rest of the world. Theyre a big part of the global gdp. Its a major problem for that. And people have gotten complacent on the yuthe yuan. If you have the fed hiking, if you have global inflation looming overhead, the chinese will not keep their rates and not just their normal low rates, but the lowest rates in years this last quarter. What is the Tipping Point . Where does this become more clear publicly rather than through your numbers . Theyll have a hard time keeping up they can also push the stimulus button. The reason people are worried is that theyll just do something to make this go away. She have to do that in the fall. They wont deal with chaos. You have a weird doughnut hole in the spring. In the months coming up, in which the labor market is good enough so they cant stimulate. They probably wont stimulate. At the same time you will see falling growth in some key sectors. Flgs theres a weird potential doughnut hole in the year. If they are thinking about stimulus, are you talking about something that will be a year before we see any real cracks . Thats what they want. They want to put this off until 2018, have the new team in place and deal with this front and center, not before the party congress. Who is buying up these commodities . If you say theres a boom going on, is it the empty cities all over again . Its party that, but its the money ball. Were focusing on this captive ball of capital within china. Weve watched it go to properties, equities bonds. Were seeing its been in property for a long thyme but widespread sales falls. It is moving out of property, should move out of commodities soon. So well see a new destination soon, but that means some of these sectors will fall. It reminds me of a snake its a snake ball thing. Did you see drudge . No. A snake hate a human. No. A man was swallowed by a python. Right now . Big headline . Its not the headline, its in there. Dont look at it now. Youre in the middle of an interview. I sort of want to see this thing. What what happ what happens . Will we see these problems beyond, is it things that shows up in the Global Markets, putting increasing pressure on commodities . It should. Were not looking at this saying the economy will fall off a cliff this year. It wont happen. People have become so complacent because they believe china cannot have anything other than an uber stable 2017. When you see weakness and pressure on outflows, china not announcing immediate stimulus, people will think whats wrong here . People will question their assumptions. You are already seeing shops call for an acceleration of growth into the party congress. Were certainly not seeing that. Thank you very much for joining us. Thank you. Says graphic content. Dont look. Dont look . Indonesia. The guy was missing. Okay. During the commercial break, go to drudge, check it out. Is it work safe . Its horrible. The guy was 25 years old, he vanished from work. They saw this big snake, they got pictures. Hope youre not eating breakfast. Coming up, new work being done on alzheimers and its radically changing the treatment options. A new start up using gene therapy to fix the disease at

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