Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20170809 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box August 9, 2017

Measure. Overnight in asia, you saw similar concerns as markets in both japan and korea came under pressure the nikkei down by 1. 3 , that is a 2 1 2 month low. Hang seng off by a third in europe, you can see similar concerns playing out there the cac is the biggest loser in the major averages declines of over 1. 25 and for stocks in italy and in spain if you want to check out what has been happening with currencies, the yen has been picking up some ground this morning. It is considered a traditional safe haven right now it looks like the dollaryen is at 109. 77, dollar up against the euro. Also seeing a big move in the swiss franc, seen as asafe haven trade. You check that out this morning, but weve also seen gold a little stronger and u. S. Treasuries picking up a bit as well and big news, disney says that it will pull its movies from netflix and launch its own streaming service, it will take several years to complete. Disney making that announcement as it released Quarterly Results late yesterday well be hearing from bob iger and get wall streets reaction in just a few minutes. Mr. Wonderful may have his own reaction you would want disney to eventually sell to p apple im a disney shareholder. And this is between 95 and 110 every time we go through the espn cutting dispute which occurs every quarter and those concerns were brought up again 28 decline is probably one of the fiercest weve seen, but we know its coming. And here is the response okay, well just serve it up ourselves directly to you. That is an interesting outcompany, but its not just for disney for netflix, it means that netflix has to go this to the movie making business which is a crappy business. Since the beginning of time including all the hits and losses of color, sound movies, the average return is about 7 i was a little surprised that the street took this news so badly last night because you would think the idea of going over the top, maybe it shows process. I will use it probably as a buying opportunity when the stock breaks 100 im so used to this disney, you know, fib rue lags, but the can he has such assets and if they are going to serve it up, tell me if you have kids that you wont be buying that service. Of course youll buy if i could presubscribe, i would. Well talk more about this in a minute we should tell you shares of priceline tumbling in early trading on weaker than expected outlook. Top beiping estimates easily. Revenue of 3 billion also beating estimates. Third quarter guidance was lower that expected. Also a little bit of deal news for you this morning u. S. Credit card Processing Company vantiv is making a form allege offer to buy worldplay for 10 billion. The deal first noinsed announcey july. Lay for 10 billion. The deal announced in early July Jpmorgan was previously in the mix. And develop vernight, nort korea responding to a stern warning from President Donald Trump by threatening the u. S. Pacific territory of eamon jave more this is rhetoric that were not used to hearing. A new approach now from President Donald Trump toward north korea. He was responding to reports that north korea had successfully miniaturized a Nuclear Weapon that could fit on top of a missile heres what the president said yesterday. North korea best not make anymore threats to the United States they will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen he has been very threatening beyond a normal statement. And as i said, they will be met with fire, fury and frankly power the likes of which this world has never seen before. He was responding to reports in the Washington Post and confirmed later by nbc news that the u. S. Intelligence community has assessed that north korea has successfully miniaturized a Nuclear Weapon that would be small enough to fit on a missile. Its a key milestone, but it didnt mean that the North Koreans have a Nuclear Capable icbm the reentry technology is a tricky piece its not clear that they have mastered that. But they did achieve miniaturization sooner than had been expected by analysts in response to the president s comments, the north korean issued a statement of their own in part threatening guam North Koreans saying that the Korean Peoples Army strategic foo forces xanling the operatiexami plans in the areas around guam with medium to long range problem kets in order to contain the Major Military bases including the Andersen Air Force base so that escalation of rhetoric there on the north korean side responding to the president s rhetoric, all of this as the United States has been trying to get china to interview with the North Koreans and we saw the United Nations imposing new sanctions as well within the past week. So a lot of moving pieces here well have to monitor it throughout the day and youre right in that were not used to the rhetoric coming from the United States. Were used to it from nooek. What changes is the time frame if they are further along than we had anticipated, that may make people wonder if we have time for the which i ceconomic substantials to take place thats right. And the question is the role of dhooi in all of that remember north korea and china sharing that border and question is will china enforce the sanctions and also will they police some of the black market activity going on that allows north korea to finance that nuclear program. This is a country that is pretty much isolated from the rest of the world, but still manages to get some revenue in from global trade. Will that be the way to solve if china can tighten the screws on that and then of course you talk about the president s rhetoric here, one of the questions will be was this a clib brdeliberate mirroring of the north korean rhetoric because thats how they speak, or was this donald trump sort of making this up as he went along or is this a deliberate strategy here very much sounded like some of the sort of baths of fire and the other pieces of rhetoric that weve heard from the for examplians in the past well hear more about all of these issues i know we heard from the russians saying that they would like too see a deescalation of the receiphetoric. But what about the chinese, japanese and South Koreans in the immediate arena . Yeah, and the japanese have issued their own intelligence assessment and concluding along the sale lines that the United States has that the North Koreans do now have this miniaturization capability but you talk about south korea and seoul, its so close to the dmz, so close to where any fighting would take place if there was a war touched off on the korean peninsula, its a little terrifying to think about the level of casualties that you could have in a very short amount of time if something were to break out on that peninsula and of course thousands and thousands of american troops on that dmz as well so a lot at stake here for all the players. Soul owing teoul the only pl even before the escalation the real estate protss closest to the river have lower Property Values because those would be the first places that would be overrun in case of some sort of a war breaking out and its horrific to think about what could happen here so the consequences are dire the president definitely escalating his receipts tore rick hes surrounded hes in bed minister, but hes surrounded by all of the apparatus of the u. S. Military. Bedminster, but hes sd by all of the apparatus of the u. S. Military. When you watch the comments being made, premeditated, planned, thought out in terms of what he wa terms of delivering a specific message that he think he talked about with his advisors in advance or something that he con koscocted the moment i dont have any reporting from inside the white house on this, but if you look at the timing of this and you look at the president s body language during that comment, this came during an opioid conference that the president had previously scheduled. But it was several hours after we saw the news break in the Washington Post that the North Koreans had achieved this Nuclear Capability so the president knew this question was coming from the reporters. He had time to prepare it. He was sitting back with his arms folded. He very much seemed like this was a prepared comment that the president made and he hit that fire and fury sound bite twice he wanted that piece of rhetoric to get out there into the conversation around the world. It felt to me just as an observer from the outside that this was a deliberate decision by the president id agree i thought the same thing watching it. Thank you very much. Well talk to you again soon in the meantime, Lockheed Martin says that it is seeing grows interest in its Missile Defense systems in light of the north korea threat the pentagons biggest weapons supplier saying its seen a recent uptick in his still defense questions coming from its clients. Shares of lockheed are up 20 year to date back to the top story of the morning, it is disney rolling out the Quarterly Results and announcing that major strategic shift. The company ending its deal with net fli netflix and in 2019 and launching its new streaming service and also launching an espn service we had a deal that gave us the option to move our films from the netflix platform to somewhere else starting with ka calendar year 2019, so thats what were doing were creating a disney Branded Service that will have those movies on it and if you look at the 2019 slate, it includes frozen 2, toy story 4 and a live action remake of lion king as a for instance so an incredible slate joining us now to break it down, Senior Analyst at fdr kacht capital. Mark, good morning were making a lot of this disney over the top service, but i wonder whether the bigger news is the espn over the top service. Actually, i dont think so. I think espn is a niche sports network. It wont be the flagship espn. It will be the stuff that cant make the cut on espn it will appeal to sports enthusiasts, there is probably a lot of those but that is something that is a complime complement, not a read placement. So meaningful, i think the disney brand itself is more important. So meaningful, i thine disney brand itself is more important. Why are investors not applauding this as much as bob iger wants i think the issue is that this accelerates the wave seen as threat to the traditional tv bundle as you get the disneys of the world giving you better and better quality online over the top subscription services, sports separated from the entertainment, others will respond. Fox isnt going to sit still they will respond to this. Discovery is responding. Cbs is responding. A consumer can get great entertainment, great sports without signing up for pay tv. Disney makes a lot of money for that, so i think the concern is cannibalism. Lets talk about espn again if you are interested in lacrosse and you played it at Boston College and you want to follow your team, you really dont get to do that easily on espn new but if iger will service it up and split it up into all these long and skinny tails, doesnt that service become far more interesting, knlts i mondcondit monetize small verticals in a way i never could before that has kept me in the stock. This is the way i can watch my own team and ill pay for it just for the game. Lacrosse is a niche sport compared to football so i think its unclear if there is a Critical Mass of niche sports subscribers that can move the needle for a something someg as disney. Im a little more sceptical than you are i think. How much programming does disney have, what does that look like relative to a net flex sflx service or hbo or Something Else do they need to buy additional content . When youre talking about the entertainment side, disney pixar, maybe star wars, maybe marvel, that is the best content collection, entertainment collection i think that you could point to anywhere. So you look at netflix as largely an entertainment service, not a sports service. This seems like a very strong alternative to netflix so i do think that the future for netflix is one of more competition, that is something that i think constrains their ability to raise rates long term might cap their Addressable Market opportunity because some people might want this Disney Service instead of netflix and if you are buying netflix new, youre making a long term bet 00 their ability to make a lot of money through pricing and growing subs disney might have just capped that opportunity did you cover netflix because that stock was only down about 1. 6 your point that its not just disney but others, down by almost 4 this morning in the premarket i do cover netflix. Valuation is my main concern and i think the competitive response from the dinosaurs of traditional tv has been very limited to date. But i think what were hearing with any disney doing this, the gloves will come off they wont be alone. Reports suggest that netflix users in the United States and canada, 30 prls of their usagn disney or pixar films on the service. A, do you believe that and b, how much does netflix pay to disney right now so we dont know precisely. Im skeptical of your 30 figure but i do think that netflix is paying something in the zip code of 200 million to 400 mmd i think its closer to 400 million per year to Disney Disney will lose that, so there will be eps pressure to build this up. But i think the bigger issue for netflix is that disney is now a rival as opposed to a source of something that is appealing on your service they will still have disney content, not the big movies. And i think that is the bigger issue for netflix. But there is this conversation that you could hold back some of the marvel stuff, you can that some of the disney stuff could stay on netflix or get sold to other places yeah. I think disney is thinking about what to do my bet is that they will decide that they need to go big or go home and they will take star wars and they will take marvel and put it on their owner ewner is advice is this the end of the secondary demarket . Service. Is this the end of the secondary demarket whether its hbo or whomever, creating consetent, putting it their own platform, letting it run and then they go off and sell to amazon or they sell to netflix or what have you is this a signal that that whole market will change i think in a whole market is definitely changing. There is pressure to put it on their own platform if im a producer, disney is now a new customer netflix is basically you get your price of production plus 40 , but they keep the content in perpetuity. With another contributor like disney, the deals could get more lucrative for contents makers, particularly family. Those old cartoons will be valuable in a big way. Park your kid in front of it for one monthly fee. Ill bullish on the stock. What are you saying for the call on disney itself as a result of what you know now . Up, down, sideways look, i think the stock is stuck in a range i think that earnings go down as they invest in this ramp i think that the concerns around the secular risks to their bread and butter go up and i think its not clear yet how affective competitively they will be with their service but our bias that particularly the pixar stuff is likely do well and ban tech the company that disney just acquired a big chunk of to power all of this, they not only will power this new disney channel, they do h bchlts o, mlb, a lot of others. Is hbo and other competitors going to have to find a new Technology Platform . Well, i think hbo is going to at t so that will be a new tech platform so i dont think that is a big issue. I think bam gets disney industrial Grade Technology at kind of the top level of skill in the market. Gets them big, gets them there quickly. Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you. When we come back, more saber rattling with north korea dwrifg the dow driving the dow to snap its ten day winning streak well ask if there is a bigger pullback ahead careful joe, theyve got you outnumbered. The dinosaurs extinction. Dont listen to them. Not appropriate. Now im mashing these potatoes with my stick of butter. Why dont you sit over here. Find your awesome with the Xfinity Stream app. Included with xfinity tv. More to stream to every screen. Lets get a check on the markets. Futures are under a little bit of pressure. Not by much. Dow futures only down by about 31, but this is striking when you look at the ten days in a row of gains that weve seen for the dow futures. Nine of them new record levels so lets continue to keep an eye on this. S p futures down by about 8 1 2, nasdaq do you know by wn by 38 treasury market, you will see that the ten year at least at this point isyielding 2. 246 bids picking back up putting pressure on yields as that is seen as a safe haven trade two year 1. 339 . And if you take a look at gold which is also seen as a safe haven trade every time you get concerns, you to see a pick up here gold price up by about on 10 this morning to 172. 8 0. Joining us for more is chief investment strategist at jame j jannen and rich stein burpg from Steinberg Global Asset Management gentlemen, welcome to both of you. Mark, lets start out talking about the potential threat with north korea. We know that the rhetoric has been there for a Long Time Coming from north korea. Yesterday the United States stepped up that rhetoric through President Donald

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