Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20131011 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street October 11, 2013

Weve been in a range for some time. You can see of course 3 well in the rear, isnt it . Nobodys talking taper too much anymore. As for europe, lets take a look. Kind of a mixed bag overall on the couldnt net. Lets go to our road map. It starts where else would you expect it . Hope with washington, leading to hope for investors but for how long . Well take a closer look at where the markets are headed the day after that big, big point gain on the dow. And Bank Earnings kicking off this morning. Jpmorgan posting its First Quarter lost amid litigation costs. And mixing coffee and politics. Starbucks Ceo Howard Schultz looking to end the d. C. Gridlock, launching a petition today urging congress to open the government. Well speak live with mr. Schultz later. Mark zuckerberg going on a real estate spending spree in silicon valley. Well tell you what the billionaire is buying coming up. Its the morning after the major averages rose 323 points, all on hopes republicans and the president will end the grid llg, lifting the debt ceiling. I was in texas at the barefoot economic conference, a lot of large Asset Managers there in the room over the two days. Almost to a man or a woman, they were not putting on hedges, they were not believers that we would pass it. And they were proved right, at least, by that rally as have those who cant choose to sell. We kept seeing we need to see the big losses to move the two parties towards a deal. Talk about a victory lap, over at jefferies. He was there. We made fun of him a little bit the last couple of weeks, so many people have come out and said were buying the dips, were buying the dips but the buy the dip crowd this morning is saying, look, this move has proved us right. I think theres still a great belief in the market, david and kelly, and from the big investors once you get this in the rear view, youre going to focus on the fact that yellen is the selection and some of the facts that the economy is improving, globally things are getting a little bit better, that youre going to get some kind of good push into the end of the year, november and december, at least a view from the folks that i talked to and im gathering its the same for you guys that the end of the year will be pretty good once you get this out of the way. You also dont seem to be not likely to get talk of a taper. The data, coupled with the shut down, which is still going on and will have an impact. This is where i get a little frustrated with the narrative, which is to say theres one reason why stocks do well in this environment and its because growth is not good enough. Id so much love to be in a place where weve progressed beyond this. The fed can step back a little bit because the Unemployment Rate is falling for everyone. That would be a much better outcome than this continued muddle through. That gets lost sometimes. There a lot of questions, david, as to whether this move we saw yesterday, 323 points, as you said the best point gain of the year for the dow, is it justified, is it overdone . Was there really anything going on in d. C. Other than, hey, they had a conversation, were up 300 . 232 on the s p can go very quickly if we get negative headlines between the Vice President and republicans. Whether its today and whether its just a prospect of revisiting this situation in six weeks time, early next year, heres a quote from Potomac Research group, which i think sums um there is a broader picture here that can be worrisome. They said market psychology has soared because default is off the table but business and consumer psychology has taken more of a lasting hit. Washington is still dysfunctional. How exposed do you want to be to this market or to this economy if you feel like the longer term picture is getting worse . I dont know. It depends on whether you think that, a, the people in d. C. Are going to let us go over theboro verbial cliff. Theres still a big bet that people think thats not going to happen. If you think its going to happen, it changes your entire mindset about where you want to be in the market. I think tina fordham at citi puts it nicely, she calls it the near heart attack. Youre going to keep getting these moments where theres big jumps and a selloff. But the market is not believing anymore. I would argue theyre almost ill believe it when i see it if you guys really are going youre terrible, we hate you but youre not that stupid. That at least seems to be i wonder what the 300point rally will do to the whole conversation. It may have the same kind of impact as a decline would. Now the pressure is on. You dont want to give it back. You dont want our inactivity to give it back. The dynamic may have been the opposite what we expected, which was the big falls that potentially would bring them together. Now its the idea of exactly. This morning president obama and Vice President biden will meet with the Senate Republican caucus in an effort to resolve the standoff. Hampton has the latest. Good morning. Reporter how you doing, scott. This comes off the meeting that president obama had with House Republican leaders for about 90 minutes at the white house last night. Both sides basically describing that meeting as a good session. The president and john boehner explain a proposal for a shortterm extension of the debt ceiling, about six weeks. That would buy the gop more time to seek more spending cuts. Republicans appear to be steering clear of limits on the president S Health Care law and spending that led to the current crisis. Back on capitol hill, several gop Lawmakers Said while no deal has been struck, the talks were constructive. Well come back to have more discussion. The president said that he would go and consult with the administration folks and hopefully we can see a way forward. Opening the government is a negotiation that will happen tonight and in the hours ahead, and we hope to have it open by monday morning. I know its a holiday. Now republicans continue to be battered in Public Opinion polls as americans hold them more responsible for the Government Shutdown. Taking a look at the latest nbc wall street journal poll, 50 of the people blaming the gop versus 31 blaming obama. Only a quarter of you republicans in a positive light but democrats dont escape unharmed either. Nearly twothirds of people say theyd fire everyone in congress, even lawmakers they like. Overall, 78 of the people believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Now, scott, as you mentioned, president obama is scheduled to meet with Senate Republicans at the white house around 11 15 a. M. Eastern time. Kelly, back over to you. Hampton, thanks very much for that this morning. For more on hough the pw the pon a deal could impact the market. Guys, good morning. Good morning. Good morning. The numbers in the poll, the wall street journal nbc survey were pretty bad all around. 78 of the people are unhappy with the way the country is going and yet we have a 300point date. Do we see this as a kie cot mi or are we making too much of the reaction of whats happened in the last four to six weeks in washington . No, i think this was very good political theater. The polls played an Important Role in bringing both sides of the party to the table. It was clear a week ago when the president s gallup number went to 11. That brought everyone to the table. We thought that would be the catalyst for deal, not a big market selloff. This looked more like 95 96 and that it did in 2011. In 2011, there was a sovereign debt crisis going on. That was an acute situation. Government percentage of gdp was still 24 . Now weve had through dysfunctionality or otherwise a massive readjustment of those fiscal accounts. Whats at stake here is nothing like the budget control act of 11 or atra of 12 where any deal will have massive fiscal drag and very real Macro Economic implications. That was always a political fight that created some distractions for the markets but was never destined to cause a significant market pullback. Kevin, if what barpy is saying basically this isnt we shouldnt expect the kind of deal out of washington that includes massive shortterm spending cuts. I guess that includes an obstacle for people who want to be along the markets. I think youre looking at a consensus view that we will get some kind of deal and we think theres going to be a deal. Frankly, to not get a deal would put so much pressure on the system, it would undo so much of the things that congress voted for in terms of things like supporting the banking system. So we think a deal does come and most of the data, which i think ultimately will be when you get beyond this youre going to be looking at the data and most of the dayia we look at is perfectly fine. Most continuithings are expandi. Wheres the data . No cpi, no retail sales. There is delay in some of the government data. But theres a lot of private survey and purchasing manager surveys, et cetera and so forth. Which are pointing in a pretty good direction. When you look at markets, too, marketbased indicators, which we have available to us all the time, every day, seem to be functioning relatively well. Barry, much was made i guess it was maybe you upped your price target for the s p, i think its 1,800 now for 2013. Youre pretty risk on across the board so to speak, right . You like cyclicals and thats what you think is going to carry the day to your target. Absolutely. You guys hit on it a little bit earlier. Wee thought wed get this policy normalization correction right until 11 59 on the 18th when they didnt taper. Even if theres a onemonth deal, twomonth deal, a fiscal fog doesnt completely clear. You may not even get tapering in december. If you push that to next year, you have support of Monetary Policy. I do think, like your other guests, that the trends and the number of market related indicators does it pertain to is the underlying part of the economy cyclical . I think it looks like a 2014 event. So the fiscal fog, which was really a political fight over nothing, all that does is have a favorable Monetary Policy reaction that creates a window into favorable seasonality for the market to y. We have to go here. Just in a word, do you buy financials. Barry . No kevin . Selectively. Oh, interesting. Some caution there on the street. Well watch how those names react as we get earnings in. Appreciate it, guys. Thanks. They both did it in a word. I think that may be a first on cnbc. We were just talking about financials, at least in a word there. Jpmorgan chase posted Third Quarter earnings of 1. 42 a share. That did exceed wall streets forecast. But the Company Posted a loss actually because of increasing legal expenses. In the meanwhile, wells fargos q3 earnings conceded consensus. Not that big a surprise at wells, which has been laying off employees in morgans banking for some time. Jpmorgan, 9. 2 billion, 7. 2 billion is the litigation expense after taxes. They did have reserve releases of 1. 6 billion. Youve had for some time at jpmorgan reserve releases, which is coming in as a plus and they take that and put it in the litigation reserve. Kind of evens itself out. Now its swamping the reserve releases. The question is is this it . When are they going to come from the settlement . They can just tell you that jamie dimon is saying lack of settlement a little bit because of a shutdown, reality is the shutdown is complex because of some multiple agencies. Litigation costs will be elevated for the next year or two and will be lumpy. Do you know the number, though . Its 23 billion. Thats the number they gave for litigation reserves, 23 billion. Which really highlights if youre an investor thinking about this stock right here and right now, you have two choices. Do you focus on the fact that the underlining business continues to perform pretty well, right, or do you focus on the fact of the legal risk that continued the litigation, the settlements, the arrows being flown at jamie dimon almost weekly . Today as the stock was at 50, now its at 53, its got a little bit of a push here, it seems as though investors are focusing on the former, the fact that the business continues to do pretty well. Agreed. But you do wonder if it keeps coming. If this is it and you can sort of have some confidence, and that is not clear that the 7. 2 billion after tax addition to litigation reserves will more or less take care of a lot of it, then you probably do. But you get another quarter where reserve releases, by the way, theyre going to slow. Theyre going to slow as the economy moderates, as credit has lost its evened out now. Youre continuing to see less and less of them. That lab key questiwill be a ke. That will be in focus today. Theres that technical, that 50 mark and now at 53. Coming up, starbucks ceo and chairman Howard Schultz is surging lawmakers to strike a deal on the debt ceiling. And it looks like small losses after one of the biggest days of the year. Plenty more squawk on the street live from post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange when we return. Tirement. Those dreams, theres just no way were going to let them die. Like they helped millions of others. By listening. Planning. Working one on one. 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This gives you a sense of what were looking together. It says come together. Sign the come together petition, one reopen the government to pay our people, avoid another financial crisis, three, pass a bipartisan budget by the end of the year. I guess its fitting in the year of the activist as investors, hes become quite the activist ceo on a number of issues. Nonpartisan. As a citizen im encouraged by what mr. Schultz is doing but as a shareholder, who is paying for that ad . Is it a distraction in any way for him . I dont know. But i just wonder. Even though, again, personally i think its a worthwhile endeavor but not quite sure how it lines up with shareholder value. Starbucks and he in particular has been involved in the whole issue of bringing guns into starbucks chains. Im wondering if its not meant to be a little bit of a zig from that zag issue from a shareholder point of view. Stocks up 34 . That will help you with shareholders. Go spend that money however you want. Just keep doing it. Howard schultz will be with us later on the show. He can tell us himself. What a week its been on wall street. I guess the question is how is it going to end this morning . Heres a look at the futures, which are seeing the dow pointing lower by about 23 points, and the nasdaq as well. Squawk on the street is back after this. [ bagpipes and drums playing over ] [ music transitions to rock ] make it happen with the allnew fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Get 200 free trades when you open an account. So she could take her dream to the next level. So we talked about her options. Her valuable assets were staying. And selling her car wouldnt fly. We helped sydney manage her debt and prioritize her goals, so she could really turn up the volume on her dreams today. And tomorrow. So lets see what we can do about that. Remodel. Motorcycle. [ female announcer ] some questions take more than a bank. 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And thats at least appears to be because all day long lets say im bidding right underneath the market, i want to buy it a little cheaper. They

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