Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20140219 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street February 19, 2014

Morning as the violence in kiev has left at least two dozen dead. The roadmap begins with netflix youd over verizon as the primetime download speeds allegedly slow. And lets make a deal, cigna jewellers agreeing to acquire zale for 21 a share while one wall street firm suggests walmart should pick up Family Dollar. First up netflix has a bone to pick with verizon this morning and its fios service, according to the wall street journal, the average prime time speeds fell 14 last month as netflix is rolling out a new season of house of cards theyve been in dispute with verizon and other broadband providers how much content theyll carry without paying additional fees. It is sort of a story, david, simon, of two companies but with broad ramifications as we see other deals coming down the pike. Without a doubt. We know this is only going one way which is up as Broadband Usage will only continue to increase as more and more people stream. There are statistics that say 30 of the streaming that takes place in prime time in the u. S. Is related to netflix. How much capacity youre using and the move to high def by netflix, for example, using more bandwidth, its going to be a contentious issue and one were with for some time, who pays the freight . Should it be the carriers who have to continue to upgrade their networks to handle the increased capacity or should netflix and others who are providing the content using so much bandwidth chip in as well . If you read the article it looks like Reed Hastings is out on his own. The article says google, microsoft and facebook have already been paying additional fees north for their carriage to be taken. The deal apparently, the implicit deal on the internet is you dont need to pay extra penalties, extra fees provided as you are shich ipping out as data as you are bringing in and in netflixs case they have not. And the fees potentially should be paid. At the same time our Parent Company comcast, of course, the Largest Cable Company in the country soon to become programs if it is, of course, the deal to acquire Time Warner Cable is approved even larger has agreed to Net Neutrality under this deal. Even though it doesnt have to. Because it is such an important issue at this point for the consumer at home who cant suddenly get to watch breaking bad or house of cards its simply a frustration. But its something thats going to play out financially over time and one has to wonder what netflix is going to be able to do to stave that off and or handle the potential impact of higher feef eer fees. Which makes some people argue that netflix has more to lose than the providers. You would agree with that, im guessing. It would seem in the case of the journal, it would seem that would be the case. Are you going to rip out your broadband provider or simply say, all right, this is not a Service Working for me . Let me put it this way saturday night when i was watching house of cards its buffering so frequently that i actually gave up watching it, if i was repeated would i still be a netflix provider . You got to go up to the higher speeds, thats all. I probably already have that. You may. Do we have a sense of how much it cost to build out the networks the pipes get a little more width . Its billions. You are talking about what theyve already spent. They already do. Listen, its still a great business, thats why comcast wants to get bigger and once you sign up a new customer after i dont know what the payback time is but then we are talking significant money even without video, of course, that is the larger concern here and this is part of that overall trend that weve also talked about so often, socalled over the top where you only become a broadband provider because people can get their video options via other avenues. Although in this case, if broadband is not able to do that, maybe you keep them as a video customer. You have more reason why as a distributor you perhaps want to crack down or not provide the necessary speeds. Yeah. Turning into a rich soap opera thats far from over, no doubt about that. It is indeed. Blackberry Ceo John Chen is sounding off a tmobile after the wireless carrier emailed customers last week pitching them free iphone 5s and calling it a great offer for blackberry customers. In a blog post chen called tmobiles offer clearly an inappropriate and ill conceived marketing promotion. He also thanked blackberry customers for their loyalty. Yes, blackberry is still out there. Feisty. There are a number of investors who are somewhat constructive on it, not that they believe that blackberry as a device has a future but theres a lot of intellectual property at the company and this is a guy who has successful turned around other companies particularly sybase in the past. Im hearing positive pitches at least of why you might want to own blackberry. We get a disclosure that thats right, loeb is one of the investors there and a few others. You know, when it comes to tmobile, theyre just being so aggressive that i think you have to look at the larger landscape, all right, theyre attacking blackberry, but this is all part of bringing prices down and really we have yet to see the full response from the verizons or the at ts, weve talked so much about that in terms of what theyve been doing and how aggressive tmobile has been. And i wonder, you know, ledgers been aggressive on marketing, on promotion, on smack talk. On crashing parties. But blackberry might be the first who has nothing to lose by responding in a way that maybe at t cannot. You know . I just wonder what the subs s subsidies are, if you are get an iphone for zero dollars down, switch now, does that mean apple is giving tmobile a better deal . How does that work out . No. I dont believe so. I dont think thats the case. Thats a you are just taking less margin. Theyre being very aggressive which goes to the larger conversation that weve been having for some time as to whether the fk and the department of justice would allow for current competitors in wireless become three. Because we know that softbank which controls sprint would love to do a deal to combine with tmobile in some fashion, not clear how that would be accomplished, and yet faces considerable potential opposition from regulators. This only increases that. Every day were talking about legere its working for this guy. I agree. And hastings, too, the disrupters are coming into business and were finally getting some real contact. I mean, in tech especially, its becoming more and more of a contact sport. Having said that, tmobile said it will fast track anybody who wants a blackberry by the end of the week. There was a slight climbdown there, just a slight one. Housing starts dropped 16 in january the biggest drop in three years. We want to bring in andrew berkeley, the managing director of institutional portfolio strategy at oppenheimer, and good morning to both of you. Good morning. Lets talk about the Housing Starts. You look at permits december to january, didnt change much, but starts themselves really did. Is it weather . Yeah. I mean, i think a lot you have to attribute to the weather. We got an Interesting Data point from the architectural billing point which tends to be a better leading indicator in terms of construction activity. I think were still generally going through the soft patch in terms of the weather. The data was probably a little stronger a few months ago before the weather inducement and now we are seeing a bit of an echo effect. But i think you can attribute it to weather. Some economists have brought down their gdp estimates to one. If some of this can be made up later and some of it cannot. How many are we really losing here macrowise . From the weather . Maybe not. 0. 1, 0. 2, 0. 3 percent, its more than weather. The thing i look at most carefully are the Single Family permits and those have flattened the last six months and dropped the last two months and those are not affected all that much by weather. Theres something more going on than just weather. Really . What do you think it is . Well, i think its probably these obstacles that builders are saying that they cant get credit to build, to develop land and they cant find a good, qualified, trained workforce, so they ra they want to ramp up but they cant and they want to ramp up but they cant build homes. That was sort of behind the nahb yesterday, right . The biggest decline in that index ever. Thats correct. Thats what theyre saying and i think thats whats showing up in the permits numbers. Let me just pick that point up. It would seem to people who have watched the unemployment data or the employment report come through month after month inconceivable that you couldnt have sufficient supply of labor within construction, because construction has really lagged. Its been hugely disappointing. What do you think is going on here . Well, with labor, i think its having a trained workforce. We just lost a lot of capital in the last six years because we havent been building a lot of homes and its just going to take time to build, to train these workers, to what happened to all the other what happened to all the other construction workers . They didnt retrain as data configurers, did they . Some of them returned to mexico, some of them went into other trades. But weve lost these skills and its just going to take time to build them up, one or two years. I was expecting things to take off later this year, but it may take longer than that because of these these roadblocks that were running into. Interesting. Andrew, meantime, were seven someodd points from break even on the year on s p. Weve repaired some of what we lost. Is that because people are realizing weather is ephemeral . Yes. I think it gets back to the idea that the economy isnt growing at the 3. 5 and 4, its the steady trend state and were coming back to that now. I think Interest Rates have backed off a little bit and thats helped. Every time weve gotten up 3 on the ten year, we know the market has gotten a little fidgety around that and we think we can climb above 1900 and 1950 as the momentum picks back up the volatility will be here as we go through the ebb and flow. And were late cycle, no doubt. Andrew, patrick, thanks, guys. Talk to you later on. At least 25 are dead and hundreds are injured in the increasing violence in the ukraine. Jim maceda is in moscow with more. Jim, these are extraordinary scenes for many people given where we are. I mean, this is violence in eastern europe. This isnt north africa. Reporter well, thats right, simon. And ill tell you what looks like an insurrection in kievs Independence Square at least overnight and into this morning has now for the time being turned back into a standoff between protesters and riot police. Those police are coming out now in larger numbers. They control much of the square, after as you say a full night of extraordinary pictures, of protesters with stun grenades and Water Cannons being hit by those police. Many of the fires that we saw all night longer also still burning tonight as we approach darkness and being used by protesters carrying themselves stones, clubs, and firebombs to hide behind. But under pressure from both the u. S. And european officials and the pope to end the violence and return to the negotiating table, prorussian president has remained defiant and warning opposition leaders that theyll need to be careful because they will be treated accordingly if they dont come out publicly and denounce the radicals amongst those protesters who have reportedly killed up to ten policemen by gunshot. Theres a lot of talk about a new round of talks between both sides. But its really hard, simon, to see how either side can find a political compromise given all the vie leolence that weve seed the mistrust. Meanwhile with ukraines economy in free fall, the fear amongst the protesters is that the president has really struck a deal with russian president Vladimir Putin promising to crack down as he did last night if russia goes ahead with that latest 2 billion bailout installment which, of course, he has done. So, its now expected that even a prorussian Prime Minister will be named by yanokovich even as Vladimir Putin here in moscow criticizes the west for meddling in ukraines internal affairs. Well see if its more of the same on the square tonight or if some lessons were learned last night, but we seem to be very far still from any kind of compromise, carl . Jim, how dangerous is this from your experience . How much will this shape the future, the geography and the relationship between europe, russia, and the United States . You know, how far back does the United States and the u. S. Push in penalties here given that you could push the Prime Minister further towards putin and that open question as to how putin will react once everybody has left the winter games . Reporter right. And putin, of course, does seem to be holding the ultimate cards right now. We saw that in the way the Ukrainian Government has reacted, the riot police have reacted. Just hours after that latest 2 billion tranche was made, that latest bailout was made. Putin can come out and criticize the west specifically the European Union for meddling in the affairs of ukraine, but at the same time but at the same time its clear that ukraine has run out of options. The problem, of course, is that its not just an east west situation. That would be too simplistic. It really is a story about ukrainians figuring out who they are and what ukraine is. Thats going to take nothing less than a major compromise between both sides and we just dont see any daylight right now. Yeah, its in a very strategic country. Reporter too far apart right now. Still to come this morning, tesla as you know is sizzling. The stock at record highs. Well get you ahead of the curve on the electric carmakers fortunes after the bell earnings. Also ahead taking the pulse of the consumer and economy, a live interview with the ceo of clorox who had interesting comments on currency effects today. Another look at futures. A relative weakness here and the nasdaq is going for nine straight, something its not done since 2010. A lot more squawk on the street from post nine in just a moment. [ male announcer ] we dont just certify our preowned vehicles. We inspect, analyze, and recondition each one, until its nothing short of a genuine certified preowned mercedesbenz for the next new owner. [ car alarm chirps ] hurry in to the mercedesbenz certified preowned sales event. Visit today for exceptional offers. With shares at alltime highs tesla is due out with Quarterly Results after the bell. And phil lebeau has what to expect and its already been a huge week. Its been a huge week, the numbers wont be as much behind the news of what happens with the tesla shares over the next 24, 48 hours, when they report earnings it will be for the Fourth Quarter and all of 2013. The street expecting a profit of 21 cents a share on 677 million in revenue. Keep in mind tesla has already preannounced Fourth Quarter sales and full year sales of the model d of more than 22,000, that was greater than expected when they announced it back in january. But the Conference Call is really going to be the focus after the bell tonight and what elon musk has to say about where this company is and specifically is he going to raise guidance in terms of sales for all of 2014 . Three catalysts to look for on this Conference Call, first of all, will there be some kind of announcement about increasing model s production . Remember, they already said they planned to be at 800 per week by the end of this year, do they have enough lithium ion batteries to increase that . Giga factory time frame, will he give us something more definitive. And china Sales Estimates theyve already begun basically soft sales in china, the first delivery will happen in the next couple of months, is there something more concrete in terms of how strong they expect sales to be in china . Take a look at shares of tesla, you said it at the top, this stock has been sizzling at an alltime high right now but there are some out with notes already, carl, saying this stock has gone too far, too fast. Theres a note saying it should be more in the 120 to 150 range as opposed to greater than 200, as you know this stock in the past has been extremely volatile and continues to be at this point. Thank you, phil, we know youre all over it. Hear what art cashin is expecting from todays trading action as we count down to the opening bell. Kcups runneth opens, brian kelley talks about the recent deal with cocacola. And the implied open is down 36 points. A lot more squawk on the street straight ahead. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Ive got a big date, but my sinuses are acting up. Its time for advil cold and sinus. [ male announcer ] truth is that wont relieve all your symptoms. New alka seltzer plusd relieves more symptoms than any other behind the counter liquid gel. Oh what a relief it is. Six minutes until the open for trade this wednesday morning. Art cashin joins us here at post nine, director of floor operations for ubs. Still a lot of commentary that were really flying blind because of the weather, would you agree . I wholeheartedly agree. The only hope we got today is three fed speakers and the minutes and the minutes unfortunately will be properly laundered so we wont get inside the room. Well only hear reflections of somebody reporting out of the room. But the data is so tainted now under the perception of the weather that not only is it difficult for traders to try to guess whats going on with the economy, its difficult for the fed, too. Would the economy what would be driving this market, though . Shouldnt it be earnings . Well, earnings weve gone through earnings season. Right. It was satisfactory. It was unspectacular. They did better on the revenue line that many people had thought. But i think right now it is the economy, and people are wondering where does the fed stand, will they taper the tapering. The

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