Hit 52. 70 on wti. The ten year continues to slide below 2. 18 this morning. Our road map begins with oil. 5 1 2 year lows. More details from the planned shake shack ipo. Why the strongest growth may not be where you think. The latest caseshiller report. Youll see it flashing at the bottom of the screen. Well speak with Robert Shiller about what he thinks 2015 will bring to housing. You can see futures are off premarket. Crude continuing to fall. It all began with that selloff midday yesterday. Albeit on light volume. Unbelievable whats happened to crude. You thought some of the worst was over. It clearly isnt. Russias gdp down in november for the first time in five years. Its beginning to have more and more spillover effects. The ruble is up today. Thats something positive. Almost down 8 yesterday. Down 44 for the year of 2014. Its been a brutal year for russia. The u. S. Is where its at and continues to be. 53rd record close . Heading for a third year of gains for the s p 500. Double digit percentage gains. Something we havent seen since the 90s. Today well get Consumer Confidence. Light volume trading days toward the end of the year. The move is higher as oil feels like the move is lower. Narrowest trading range for the dow the entire month yesterday. Saw you had these narrow ranges. Intraday records for the s p, the russell, utilities. Thats what companies are do. We knew they would spend a lot of money. We are only up marginally for the month. Remember the beginning of december was rough. Not a lot of people are buying then. A lot of that corporate buying has been delayed. The most fascinating conversation is the fact we are 5 5 from the highs on the nasdaq. The changing composition of the nasdaq investor appetite, biotech. Its a fascinating conversation well return to very shortly. Joining Us Deutsche Bank chiefs u. S. Economist joe lavorgna and dan morris from tia cref. The nasdaq after 15 years coming up towards the highs it had way back in 2000. 5 below that now. What do you say to clients about overvaluation in tech soundness of the market and how it could confirm how the other indices traded . We dont see Technology Stocks overvalued. If you look at the landscape for u. S. Equities it will be more difficult for companies after how many years to increase Earnings Growth. You need productivity. Thats where you like technology. There is the most opportunities there to come up with new products to reinvent ways to do business. That can spread out to other parts of the economy. It does seem to be more interesting to us. Im not sure how far the nasdaq is a Technology Index given walgreens when it reforms at the beginning of next year will be there and marriott and other people are part of that index. On tech itself would you admit in the startups there are overvaluations . Staggering figures as they attempt to get an early first . Of course. If you compare it to other sectors within the u. S. Its one of the view where you can argue there is still opportunity in terms of valuations where a lot of the other sectors are at full value, if not a bit above. I want to mention the home price index. Its the 11th month in a row we have seen slower price gains in housing. Some of the markets as we learn in this report that broke are seeing accelerating price gains. Across 20 cities its lower. Is housing going to catch up with the rest of the economic recovery next year . I hope so. We are going to grow nearly 3 this year with a horrible First Quarter. Have virtually no meaningful contribution from housing. I would have told you i thought gdp would be 3 this year. I thought housing would have been a contributor. It hasnt. Sets us up with a better 2015 with housing being a more meaningful contributor growth. What is your diagnosis why it will turn around . We dug a real deep hole in the First Quarter on housing. Number two, its been a lack of credit coming back into the market. Havent had a lot of financing. It was only in the Third Quarter where the fed survey showed easing of mortgage standards that likely continues this quarter into next year. When financing comes back youll see housing do better. One of the lines of argument over the nasdaq is whether or not people still have the appetite they did for equities. If we get back to the highs, well will rehearse those arguments. If housing can you say there is not a fundamental change in psychology holding back the Housing Market . For sure. Thats why homeownership rates have fallen as they have. In aggregate, if you look at the vacancy rate across the country, which includes homeowners and renters, we are at a 25year low. Well have less housing formations and fewer buyers but we still need places for renters to be. There is a shortage of housing. When i talk about housing, there is going to be more rental properties. Why weve seen the multifamily sector take on increasingly larger share. How do you square 2. 17 yield with your rosy outlook . I cant. Fundamentals will give you the direction of rates, well have the best job growth since 99. The economy has grown 4. 5 on average. Tenyear yields down 2 . If the fed moves rates next year inflation starts to pick up as i believe it will well see much higher yields. Well above where we are right now. Im just astounded as to whether you think inflation will pick up next year. A little bit. Energy in the short term is a major tax cut for businesses and households. That core rate is not going to be sensitive to energy. If this labor market we push sub5 unemployment as i believe we will in 15, its hard to think wage pressure the bulk of business costs is not going to accelerate. Thats going to push inflation higher. If you look at the u. S. Theres been more investor interest in the u. S. Because of the latest gdp figure. Problem is u. S. Equity market valuations already reflect that. Its not attractive on a valuation basis. Decent Earnings Growth. Perhaps overvalued. We are looking internationally. Biggest opportunities look to be within japan. We had a resounding victory for abe in the last election. There are parts of italy and france where parts of the government realizing they need to change but the public hasnt bought into that. Ultimately it will be difficult to push through reforms. Or corporate taxes like in the u. S. In europe we have this political scare in greece. Italy managed to sell 10year debt which shows the contagion is not there. Does that mean we dont have to worry about these problems in greece having a party there that is antiausterity, antibailout and antieuro zone . I dont think we need to worry all that much. Even if you come up with the scenario where the party does get the most votes, it may be difficult to form a government. They are not going to renege on any commitments the government has. We think the contagion wont spread across europe. What you see in italy is more a reflection of the fact this last of impetus toward reform. Its not necessarily a good indicator they are able to have such slow rates. It indicates they are not growing. Good to see you, dan morris. Joe lavorgna i feel there is an inevitability youll be on the show before the end of the week. Always a pleasure. Thank you. Wreckage has been found from the missing air asia flight. Katie tur is in singapore with the very latest. Reporter good morning. Really tough day here in Southeast Asia as officials confirmed they found wreckage and bodies and that wreckage and those bodies are from air asia flight 881. Relatives found this out watching live local television and seeing those bodies on live tv without any warning. There were 162 people on this flight. 17 were kids. One was a baby. The search effort will begin again tomorrow in earnest. They are going to send divers down to an area they saw large shadow. They believe that is where the bulk of the wreckage is. They are hoping the divers will be able to recover the black boxes to figure out what happened. And whether the bad weather in the area was a factor. Families will be getting a charter flight tomorrow to take them around the islands halfway between indonesia and singapore. Its the area that flight was last known to have contact with the control tower. Theyll be able to pray there. Hopefully these bodies will be i. D. d in a timely manner and they will be able to start their funerals and memorials, everything they need to do to get them honored in a timely manner. This search and this recovery will go on for quite a few days. They are calling this a rescue effort. They are holding out hope there might be a survivor. Back to you. Katy thank you for that. When we come back with, more on the caseshiller numbers. Robert shiller is with us after a break. Tobias levkovich will join us with his Market Outlook for 2015. Take one more look at the premarket. I take prilosec otc each morning for my frequent heartburn. Because it gives me. Zero heartburn prilosec otc. The number 1 doctorrecommended frequent heartburn medicine for 9 straight years. One pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. These ally bank ira cds really do sound like a sure thing but im a bit skeptical of sure things. Whys that . Look what daddys got. Ahhhhhhhhhh growth you can count on from the bank where no branches equals great rates. Housing data of the morning. Caseshiller showing home prices rose in october at a slightly slower pace. Rising only 4. 5 in october versus 4. 8 gain in september. Joining us first on cnbc via skype this morning, the cofounder of the caseshiller index Robert Shiller. Professor of economics at yale university. Good to see you again. Good morning. So why . Clearly, this number beat expectations. It wasnt terrible but why are we seeing this continued streak of moderated price gains and sluggishness in home prices right now . Well what we are seeing they are still going up. They are going up just about on expectation. I did a survey with Anne Thompson in june. People are expecting 4. 5 price per year for the next ten years. So far, we are right on track. I think our optimism when we rebounded from the bottom in 2012 is tempering a bit. Its not a dramatic change. I guess the fact we saw 9 growth at least in miami and San Francisco and some other cities accelerated growth that is a good sign. Does that mean things are bottoming and perhaps we can see higher growth when it comes to home price gains . Yeah. The two best cities on the 12 month basis are miami and San Francisco. There is a pattern here i think. Glam glamour city. I suspect as some data do with their history of speculative buyers. I dont think of it as a good sign. I think its getting a little too bubbly in San Francisco. Let me pick up the broader point here professor shiller. My reading is actually optimistic. Ive got eight cities breaking out with higher growth rates. They are speeding up. I see your colleague David Blitzer is suggesting house prices could accelerate into next year. Could we deal with the Glass Half Full side of the argument which seems the strongest given where weve come from the recent surveys . Actually if you look at the seasonably adjusted data we reported today, we are up 0. 7 in one month. That is like or 0. 8 in one of our series. That is like a 10 annual appreciation. Its a mixed picture. You have to remember we are in a slow month reporting on october, which is normally a slow month. What happened to home sales in the month of november . We saw a dip for new home sales, a dip for existing home sales, are these numbers going to recover in the new year . S. You know those numbers trouble me a bit. I think theres also the worry that the very low Interest Rates weve had with the 10 year just above 2 that has been driving this market. I think thats fragile. I think of the market as looking on track with expectations, but fragile. I worry that one thing i learned in forecasting home prices is that they are different from stock prices. The rate of appreciation is very steady. If it starts slowing down that could be a sign of a turning point. Im not calling a turning point yet, but i feel a little bit of anxiety about the market. I mention tenyear expectations being on target now, but expectations in home prices are often very wrong. There is a risk of its always risky investing in the Housing Market. There is a risk of a turn down. Finally, im sure you get this question all the time. In 2015 if you had to own stocks which you said are expensive for a while or a house, which is the better investment . Well my cyclically adjusted price ratio is getting to 28. Its breaking out of the range the stock market was in from 2004 to 2007. Thats troubling. I dont think of housing as a good investment unless you are a smart real estate manager. So maybe neither. I would stick with the stock market. Still go with the stock market. Bob shiller, good to see you, as always of the s p caseshiller index and yale university. Thank you. Following up on burger shake shack filing for an ipo that could raise as much as 100 billion. Interesting details. The middle east has proven to be the companys biggest Growth Market with about 20 restaurants there. They cite a potato bun as risk factors. And custards first stand, dog run and madison mixer were all considered. Its actually raised some discussions about how well restaurant ipos have done this year. Average consumer ipos up 30 in 2014. Average tech ipo about half that. That surprised me. You look at what loco has done and zos. Habit burger . That chain that popped 90 on its ipo . As far as ipo s1 filings go this was a good read. It was very colorful. We should point out the growth rate at shake shack, though there is a lot of excitement is slowing. They call it same shack sales growth. This out of the s1. Slow to 3 from 5 a year earlier. The year before that was 7. 1 . Something potentially investors want to know more about. How they get from 63 stores to 450, which is the promise. I think the most important footnote here is you have a big private equity player Leonard Green trailing with a 40 stake four years ago who is clearly looking to plot an exit at some point. That has been the story of the year, of course. Notably with the lights of blackstone taking businesses to market to plot an exit strategy. It does mean they are using this period of market calm and a very good ipo environment to set themselves up. The timing is beautiful with what gas prices have done. Darden had a record high yesterday. Chipotle had a record high. Fast cat ul has gotten better. And burgers are in a sweet spot. They advertised grassfed, vegetarian fed, 100 natural. Those are the buzz words when it comes to these fast casual restaurants. They have plans to open ten a year going forward. When we come back art cashin celebrating 50 years on the floor of the new york stock exchange. Became a member this date in 1964. He will ring the opening bell and join us on this landmark day. Futures, as we have chop in the premarket. Take a look at cebo the Company Providing temporary long term housing for oil workers, plunging in afterhours trading after weaker than expected guidance. The market capitalization is under 1 billion. Theyve been hit by the prospect of Oil Companies cutting back spending amid tumbling crisis for crude. They expect an operating profit for the full year 250 million. Now saying they will deliver half that. Expected to have a rough open in four minutes time. Art cashin will ring the opening bell this morning at the new york stock exchange. Celebrating 50 years as a member of the floor populated with a lot of his family and friends. That is the man of the hour. December 30 1964 a 23yearold art cashin becomes a member of the nyse. 50 years later he is ringing the opening bell surrounded by friends, family some colleagues from ubs, we are told by folks here at the exchange this is very rare. Very rare for someone to ring a bell opening or closing simply for an anniversary, but how many anniversaries do you have that celebrate 50 years . He is a simply rare man. Look at the crowd that came out. We have him on the show nearly every single day. He started his career in 1969 as a clerk on wall street. Today is a celebration of art cashin. Only took him five years to become one of the youngest men to ever hold a seat at the nyse. Well talk to him in a few moments about his career. I would love to know how you become a partner at that age and get a seat in five years. An amazing trajectory. What the stock change was like and how its changed. Not only does the exchange celebrate cashin those of us here at cnbc for whom he is a member of our family. Arthur what a great moment. Art cashin ringing the bell here at new york stock exchange. Over at the nasdaq doing the honors as well. I dont think we know because we spent so much time paying attention to art. Its newt. There is a look at the s p at the top of your screen. Well talk to art in 15, 20 minutes what this means to him and what its been like to watch 50 years at the exchange. And what he sees in the future which we talk every time hes on. You might imagine it might be a little bit of a thin trade today. With all the volatility in oil, again west texas coming down to 52. 70, it might get interesting as we mentioned at the top. Russias economy, the ruble action this week. Their forex reserves below 400 billion. They are trying to keep the currency from a freefall and spending a lot of money. Obviously, that will hurt when it comes to their reserve cushion. Watching all the major s p groups are in the red. Fractional moves here. Well see what happens, keeping in mind we are coming off another record close. I think this is quite good news. You are getting a fall in the Energy Stocks in the open. Its muted compared to what you saw in the open. Oil and gas suppliers were down heavily. Thats not happening at the open here. Yes, ive got some of them edging lower. By no means falling out of bed despite the fact you have record supply stock piles of oil in this country. A lot of people found that shocking. Hence the reason the price of oil slipped again to a fiveyear low. In the final two trading days, you are going to get funky action when trying to avoid capital gains, taxes the end of the year. You have to wonder how much activity business that versus implying the trend of the end of the year. Santa claus rally, hope we dont borrow from 2515. They are saying the forec