Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20160805 : vimarsa

CNBC Squawk On The Street August 5, 2016

Steady at 4. 9 . Most of those gains coming from the private sector with 217,000 added. Revisions also up for the last two months. A net gain there of 18,000 jobs. Lets give you a look at futures and see how the markets are reacting and you see all up and rather sharply at this point. Jim, it was a good number by most ways to measure it, i would argue. Im curious to what your thoughts are. 75,000 more than expected, lets call it above at least the consensus, somewhere around 180,000. Even the participation went up slightly and were averaging 190,000 jobs over the last three months, and i believe the sixmonth average is roughly the same. Look, sometimes you get these numbers, when theyre bad you say it. You say geez, that economy is not that strong. Thats the judgment. When theyre good, you have to reach the opposite and say the economy is a little stronger than we expected. Juxtapose that with the gdp number we got. Well, i dont know. This is a number that says the consumer could be good. I happen to love the job dispersion, 70,000 professional and business. That needs to be a very hard hit area remember and i thought digitalization would have wiped that group out more. Health care, 43,000, nothing you can do, financial activities up 18,000. Thats interesting. That had been an area hard hit. Postgreat recession number. This is what you thought could happen. Well, it had been happening. There had been a concern that the number of jobs added, the average has been going down. Right. Three month, six month averaging declining. This is moving us back towards where weve been. The numbers are bad we say listen, theyre bad. When numbers are good people want to come on air and say theyre inconsistent or tricked, theyre not look, dont look through it. Now, the you still get still at the point not making more money. I mean it is interesting that you have, you know theres very little additional income for the people who got jobs. I mean, youre talking about 8 cent increase in average wage earnings but i expect the consumer stocks will have good data. A lot of consumer stocks are the stape else that have high paying dividends have been getting high multiples because theyre like bond proxies. In this market do i want to keep buying those names when technology to be fair had a good earnings quarter compared to the rest of the market. You know i like technology. 1. 5, not freaking out on the 10year, but its been technology, its been terrific. Technology has been terrific. But the consumer stocks have been the restaurant, retail. Understood. Were stuck with the realization that may see reports this week, colls, nor stroms, jc penneys. This is an amazon number. I want to buy more amazon off this. You mentioned the 10year, we saw 1. 53. Rate hike odds, email writein from our friend peter, 32 to 40 by year end. A bit under the banks. I think jpmorgan will go through 66 on this. The stock has been a strong stock. I think bank of america goes over 15. Start getting closer to book value. The banks are a berbry of the idea we may get a rate hike more money. Net interest where you want to buy today that and the consumer stocks youre willing to take the risk on that will not get hurt. Maybe buy some of the insurers that have been hurt. Dont want to buy met life. They seem not to pull the trigger correctly on the bond portfolio. Life is a tough also the Annuity Business these guys have. Glad you said that. The annuities. I mean, i think the market is wise to that and i think i like chub. I think they have a better book of business. And i know ive been telling people in my travel trust im going to buy this one, but i lofl travelers herep. You love travelers. Travelers is the one in 17, when it goes to 120 on this number. This is a number that is going to impact stocks. Now, dont buy the opening. Opening will be too robust. Long day. Friday. Long day friday. Thats never a thing seems to be a rule that the initial reaction of a jobs number tends not to be the final reaction of that jobs number. Get rich carefully, long analysis of the first hour, very bad hour to trade. Just very bad. Inconsistent with what can happen. I think you have to look and say that banks do work here, the insurers that are not annuities can work here and the consumer stocks and just you can do Consumer Spend and make some decisions. The consumer is all over the place. When i look at the activision number, they had a new game. I always have to look at my nephew plays these games. Yes. Overwatch has 500 million in sales from 15 million players. Take two, the nba game thats very good. They have a grand theft auto. I think its funny, one of the great guys in the business, grand theft auto is a great franchise, not a franchise i let my kids play. Oven now because theyre both adults . Both kids are playing pokemon go heavily. Are they . One daughter is in italy. When i was there three weeks ago they did not have pokemon go but im told the whole city is upside down. They just charmander, is at right there. My kids are saying that you see it in italy. Which is rather wherever it goes, it just goes. Yeah. Just goes right into the coliseum and crawl all over 2,000yearold ruins. Want to find gym and apparently the coliseum was a gym this week. The coliseum. Wasnt built in eight days. End this week with the gdp number in the Rearview Mirror with todays jobs number with earnings season moving past us, good amount to come but a lot next week is a very light week on earnings. Give me your sense then as to sort of how you approach the equity market because weve filled in blanks. Right. Well i would tell you that this all my life, if you bought tech stocks during july and august, you were simply not an investor. You didnt understand how this cycle of the economy works. Europe goes to bed during the summer months the American Companies dont order because its far from the holiday season. David, this is the strongest july august ive seen in terms of orders for tech. Strongest. Whether it be sirius logic, it didnt seem like it from corvo but when you look at what how intel only down a buck and change and nvidia having incredible orders, gamin and auto chips, broadcom, incredible orders, texas instruments, amazing orders, orders for the iphone 7 hearing better than expected. Tech, consumer tech, internet of things tech, those work. Autos seem to have peaked and thats a problem. I was with a major executive yesterday, major capital goods executive. What area is the strongest in terms of coming back. Europe. Really . Europe. Asia never got that bad. Europe. Asia has been consistent. The china is switching to the consumer economy. Everyone is very concerned that china switch to the consumer economy is what really happened as opposed to and then with the no dumping to the United States here. Tech is going to work here. I feel awful recommending a tech stock in august. Speaking about europe but we have to get to south america. Where . Brazil. We have to get to brazil. Do you see how strong the real is . I havent. Year over year. Maybe carl can tell us about that because they are gearing up rio. The olympics. Talking about real. The ceremonies of the 2016 summer olympics. Oh, yeah, rio. There he is, carl has made his way and has a lot to share with us, of course, from rio. Good morning. Oh, my gosh, guys, real is up 24 versus the dollar this year. Brazil best performing stock market of the year. Welcome to rio, guys. We are here in olympic park opening ceremonies tonight. All day today and for the next two weeks we will talk about how important these games are to the world of sports, to the world of business, and yes, to the brazzon economy which faces political upheaval and economic challenges. The torch today been here since wednesday but made it ways past the christ redeemer statute. Run in part by a native of brazil. Nissan busy, announced new production here, new concept car. We caught up with goem briefly and start by asking him about the u. S. Car market, the numbers we got earlier in the week. And whether these incentives in the business are propping the consumer up. What youre seeing is a kind of stabilization of the u. S. Market taking place. I dont think anybody is betting to another Significant Growth next year in the u. S. Market. You will see something stable or around 1 of gross next year. So its very typical of other period of time where when this period of recovery ends up and start to stabilize the market. You have much more incentive activity, so its a very classiccle situation. As you know in terms of brazil, deepest recession in decades. Auto sales here, guys, down 40 in two years. Gohsn believes if were not at the bottom for the brazilian economy were close. This is due to the fact that decisions are being made and people trust that this team in charge of the economy knows where its going, has a policy and want to get there. I think its going to be slow, brazil has a lot of challenges to face. If this continues without any doubt the car market, which is at 2 million today, compared to 3. 6 million three years ago, will be geared toward recovery. Important insight there, guys. Tonight, of course, opening ceremonies, 7 30 eastern. 6 30 central. Only on nbc. Later on this hour, guys, well hear a little bit more from ghosn about brazils readiness and whether or not with all this economic and political distress, they can actually afford to host the kinds of games that were used to. More on that later in the hour. Carl, of course, youve been there i think a little while. Im curious what your experience has been like so far given all the concerns weve heard, whether its about the readiness of the venues or zika, or security . You know, i would rank zika near the bottom on the list of concerns. Its winter time here. I havent seen a mosquito yet. I think thats been largely overblown. The story has become north american as you now know. Security will be an issue. I mean, theyve had to host these games on a fraction of the budget of sochi, a fraction of the budget of london, so i think people definitely have their eyes open going into these games, not from a health standpoint, not from a pollution standpoint but security is something you cant take your eye off. We will be seeing you shortly. Carl quintanilla in rio, very exciting. Exciting for the opening ceremonies tonight on nbc. A couple things we have to talk about that are kind of ironic. Russia had gone off the radar screen. Russia starting to come back big, the ruble. Theres stengs, obviously, i dont want to get into the politics but russia a strong point of the quarter. India a major call out in this quarter, china, other than capital goods has been a call out. Imagine if we get trick back. Holy cow. Remember when that mattered. I cant. Latin america is a disaster. Some guys down, citi is going down to argentina. Venezuela is not a country. You hear the music. A quick commercial break. And then bristolmyers. Says right there. Bristolmyers and merck we will talk about them. It is actually never good news when a drug and a fails to reach the end point certainly when talking about lung cancer. But these two stocks going in opposite directions. A closer look. Also take a look at futures and dont forget jason furman will join us for a first look at the jobs report, we got a lot more squawk on the street after this. Bchl were drowning in information. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The stakes are so high, your finances, your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. We have some big moves premarket for merck and bristolmyers. Bristolmyers is going to be down sharply, after announcing that a lung cancer drug that it has been developing failed in a late stage study. Merck is rising because investors feel its own drug could benefit from bristolmyers failure. I mean those are huge moves. Well let me explain merck is having a Significant Impact on the dow. Remember its a part of it. It is a price weighted index, not a market cap weighted index. Hence statistically insignificant i like to point out and that qwhy its up more than the s p this morning. 42 points alone. To the news itself, check mate 26, trial investigating the use of opdevo as a mono therapy didnt meet the end point with patients previously untreated noncell lung cancer. Merck has something that may be doing better. Im not going to sugar coat that. My friend adam that writes for the street by far is unbelievable. I want to point out more die of lung cancer im reading this piece, more die of lung cancer than any other other cancer type. Number one, second why lung cancer considered the largest and most important market. Peak revenues for this drug were going to be 12 to 15 billion. Thats a top three drug. Okay. Top three drug, what i was looking for. 12 to 15 billion, maybe more, one of the reasons ive been talking endlessly about bristolmyers. Because this drug is so, so important. Trudeau, i regarded as not as good a job as merck is going to the floor for the biggest cancer market. We should point out these drugs are already, in other words, they treat other cancers. Has been a nation drug, lets not minimize they try them and then try them in additional cancers against the chemotherapy to see if theres an actual every cancer they try. Remember, this is the drug that made bristolmyers into a different company. It was no longer a kind of an interesting drug company. The hottest drug in europe, arguably. Okay. As opposed to like anticholesterol. But i have to tell you, david, that i am stunned because the success rate of this drug has been amazing. So to see this in what im going to say was a given, we all thought this was a given, thats how we arrived at a 15 billion estimate, which is why this company got rerated as almost like a biotech. Now i got to put pen to paper. People will be let down but i dont instantly have whether bristolmyers is a buy, but i am shocked, like everyone else, and by the way, everyone else in the medical community. Because this was the first line. This is what you took when you got this is the most unfortunately, the largest cancer in the world. I know. Sounds like merck has their its the biggest. Mercks previously announced its own trial that had shown when they reported their last quarter the reason merck stock looked like punk numbers wasnt bad is the key true to line. Its a good drug. This was the hope. By the way, im sad about it because having had relatives that died of this. Of course. The same. This was the drug. This was the drug. And it didnt work. And it is when they held the stock, i was i just thought for sure it was they were going to say this is first line and its big and i im as astonished as everyone else. I cannot give an offthecuff answer about whether bristolmyers is a buy because i know what institutions were in there betting that this was going to be maybe the biggest drug of all time. Well a huge market cap move, both ways here. Correctly. And will be following it closely. Up next jims mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. There is a look at futures as well and you can see that dow benefiting from the move up in merck. More squawk on the street after this. Using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the fruit. Veggies. And herbs needed to create a popup pickyourown juice bar in the middle of the city, so now everyone knows. We have some of the freshest juice in town. See what the power of points can do for your business. Learn more at chase. Com ink [dance music playing] [music stops] woman looks like its done. [whistle] [dance music playing] [record scratch] announcer dont let salmonella get funky with your chicken. On average, one in 6 americans will get a foodborne illness this year. You cant see these microbes, but they might be there. So, learn the right temperature to cook each type of meat. Keep your family safe at foodsafety. Gov. Americans are buying more and more of everything online. And so many businesses rely on the United States Postal Service to get it there. Because when you ship with us, your business becomes our business. Thats why we make more ecommerce deliveries to homes than anyone else in the country. The United States Postal Service. Priority you about seven minutes before we wrap up the trading week here. Where are we headed on our mad dash . Fireeye, a stock a lot kept saying its a natural to be taken over, because of cyber security. David, it will not be naturally taken over because today they actually had a very good analysis of why they have a giant munster shortfall frankly and kevin mandy the ceo, says when were responding to only five compromised machineses rather than hundreds or thousands it does not require fullcourt press for remediation, attackers dont come back. Too many one off, ransom cyber hacks as opposed to giant home depot like. They come in the forensic specialists if you dont have the giant attacks you do not have does this mean corporations are doing a better job of protecting their networks . No. It doesnt. They would say thats what happened they say they own, again, i thought it was candid, that their own Sales Organization was weak. They didnt execute well. But the bad guys are now about ransom, not about giant hacks. Thats a change. And i thought this was really interesting. They dont need to dot giant forensic if you only have a smallscale hack but they did say that perhaps people are a little more comfortable and dont need the great they dont need the great Threat Prevention and investigation. Theyre happy for the good. I thought that was i dont know if you like that. Saying you know, you dont need us, you dont need the blue chip. Go down to the red chip. Im not sure if that is such a good they have language, organizations opting for good enough versus best of breed. I didnt like. I dont know if thats the case. Use cyber security, do you say do you say listen, you know what i know. Lets just go spend a little less. Yeah. I have to tell you, remember, you dont pick up the paper and read about the giant hacks and that was fire eye. Its the ransom hacks, like listen, pay us and we wont release the data and those happen constantly. They do . Never talked about. All right. We got about five minutes before the opening bell here on this friday. You can see the floor starting to get a little crowded. Merck is going to add about 64 points to the dow. It will. Well have what that dow does when we come back. In a world held back by compromise, businesses need the agility to do one thing another. Only at t has the network, people, and partners to help companies be. Local global. Open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Youre watching cnbc squawk on the street. We are live from the Financial Capital of the world. The opening bell will be ringing in about oh, a minute and a half or so. This is when i do turn to you. I have to say its bristolmyers just because it is theres going to be a major rerating and

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